A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

No ERod does free up some salary space, assuming we plan on spending to the point we did last year or more.

[moonslav59]

The 26 man roster might look like this...

 

Vaz + Plawecki or Wong

Dalbec

Arroyo + ___FA___

Devers

Bogey

Verddugo + Duran

Kike + Locastro

Renfroe

JD

 

Eovaldi

Sale

__FA__

Pivetta

__FA__ (Seabold)

 

Houck

Whitlock

__FA__

Barnes

Brasier

Taylor

DHern

Davis/Sawamura/Valdez/Bazardo/Feltman/Seabold

[mvp 78]

No ERod does free up some salary space, assuming we plan on spending to the point we did last year or more.

 

I've seen the play was probably to replace ERod with Matz if ERod didn't sign. He should be much cheaper than the QO.

[moonslav59]

I've seen the play was probably to replace ERod with Matz if ERod didn't sign. He should be much cheaper than the QO.

 

To me, that is okay as long as they really use the "saved money" to add another pitcher or upgrade a planned addition somewhere else.

 

If we sign Matz ($10-13M/yr) and Iggy (2-4M/yr), how much is left over to add another pitcher or two?

[mvp 78]

To me, that is okay as long as they really use the "saved money" to add another pitcher or upgrade a planned addition somewhere else.

 

If we sign Matz ($10-13M/yr) and Iggy (2-4M/yr), how much is left over to add another pitcher or two?

 

I'm guessing the Garrett Richards and Martin Perez money?

[notin]

I've seen the play was probably to replace ERod with Matz if ERod didn't sign. He should be much cheaper than the QO.

 

Can someone dazzle me with the appeal of Matz?

[mvp 78]

Can someone dazzle me with the appeal of Matz?

 

I cannot.

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing the Garrett Richards and Martin Perez money?

 

If it is a straight dollar for dollar exchange, we'd have $47M or $39M minus Kike and Sawamura to spend, this winter.

 

$10M Richards

$8M ERod

$8M Ottavino

$7M Kike (x 2)

$6M Perez

$3M Marwin

$2M Andriese

$2M Santana

$1M Sawamura (x 2)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can someone dazzle me with the appeal of Matz?

 

Nope, unless you're Bloom and are looking for addition by subtraction on your payroll. Seven-year career ERAs: ERod 4.74, Matz 4.24 (facing NL pitchers the first six years). ERod, 28, signed for $77 million... Matz, 30, made $5.5 in '21 and won one more game. Matz is older but has thrown less innings; will a GM now give him five for $75?

 

Maybe not... but would Matz sign for three for $45? If we agree that's fair market value, could he possibly be the first player in the Bloom Era signed for as many as three years?

[moonslav59]

Nope, unless you're Bloom and are looking for addition by subtraction on your payroll. Seven-year career ERAs: ERod 4.74, Matz 4.24 (facing NL pitchers the first six years). ERod, 28, signed for $77 million... Matz, 30, made $5.5 in '21 and won one more game. Matz is older but has thrown less innings; will a GM now give him five for $75?

 

Maybe not... but would Matz sign for three for $45? If we agree that's fair market value, could he possibly be the first player in the Bloom Era signed for as many as three years?

 

I think I read $39M/3.

[Bellhorn04]

I think I read $39M/3.

 

MLBTR projected $27/3.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR projected $27/3.

 

That sounds reasonable, but we'd need to do more than just add him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLBTR projected $27/3.

 

Comps with ERod have probably upped what Matz will now get (pending physicals). I keep saying this: when it comes to the Red Sox, it's more about the years. And even if Bloom signs Matz, there is no way Boston is done assembling the '22 rotation... though the trade route will then be most likely.

[jacksonianmarch]

If I am Bloom, I stay away from Matz with a 10 foot pole. The guy has been really injury prone and essentially been a barely above replacement level player his whole career. He debuted in 2015 and has a total WAR of 7.9.

[moonslav59]

If I am Bloom, I stay away from Matz with a 10 foot pole. The guy has been really injury prone and essentially been a barely above replacement level player his whole career. He debuted in 2015 and has a total WAR of 7.9.

 

Now, I’m thinking maybe we should sign him.

 

Lol

[jacksonianmarch]

Now, I’m thinking maybe we should sign him.

 

Lol

 

Pretty rough year for the prognostications, I admit.

 

Do you feel like this is the strangest off season for both teams? Sox over-achieve and essentially hasten their rebuild which may push their ownership to spend earlier than anticipated. Yanks go from being odds on favorites to represent AL in the WS to barely backing in and rapidly falling out of the POs. Two ends of the spectrum here. Both teams with gaping holes at critical spots on their team and no obvious way to go beyond the Yanks signing Seager (which has been the most common prediction I have seen)

[moonslav59]

Pretty rough year for the prognostications, I admit.

 

Do you feel like this is the strangest off season for both teams? Sox over-achieve and essentially hasten their rebuild which may push their ownership to spend earlier than anticipated. Yanks go from being odds on favorites to represent AL in the WS to barely backing in and rapidly falling out of the POs. Two ends of the spectrum here. Both teams with gaping holes at critical spots on their team and no obvious way to go beyond the Yanks signing Seager (which has been the most common prediction I have seen)

 

Indeed.

 

Seager does seem like the most obvious prediction, but you guys need another top pitcher. Sev might be that guy, but better to count on him as frosting on the cake.

 

We have 3 major needs and a couple minor ones:

 

SP

P

P

 

Utility infielder

P

Edited November 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Pretty rough year for the prognostications, I admit.

 

Do you feel like this is the strangest off season for both teams? Sox over-achieve and essentially hasten their rebuild which may push their ownership to spend earlier than anticipated. Yanks go from being odds on favorites to represent AL in the WS to barely backing in and rapidly falling out of the POs. Two ends of the spectrum here. Both teams with gaping holes at critical spots on their team and no obvious way to go beyond the Yanks signing Seager (which has been the most common prediction I have seen)

The Yankees could complement their righthand-heavy lineup by signing both Seagers, whose father played college ball less than 10 miles from Yankee Stadium at Fairleigh Dickinson. In his college bio at the University of North Carolina, Kyle Seager listed the Yankees as his favorite team.

[moonslav59]

The Yankees could complement their righthand-heavy lineup by signing both Seagers, whose father played college ball less than 10 miles from Yankee Stadium at Fairleigh Dickinson. In his college bio at the University of North Carolina, Kyle Seager listed the Yankees as his favorite team.

 

Then who? Pete Seager?

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty rough year for the prognostications, I admit.

 

Do you feel like this is the strangest off season for both teams? Sox over-achieve and essentially hasten their rebuild which may push their ownership to spend earlier than anticipated. Yanks go from being odds on favorites to represent AL in the WS to barely backing in and rapidly falling out of the POs. Two ends of the spectrum here. Both teams with gaping holes at critical spots on their team and no obvious way to go beyond the Yanks signing Seager (which has been the most common prediction I have seen)

 

If the Yankees do sign C. Seager for the expected $30 mill AAV, they'll have $88 mill AAV in 3 players, Cole, Seager and Stanton, for a while to come.

[Bellhorn04]

Then who? Pete Seager?

 

Kyle and Corey are Seagers

Pete is a Seeger

Bob is a Seger

 

[mvp 78]

If I am Bloom, I stay away from Matz with a 10 foot pole. The guy has been really injury prone and essentially been a barely above replacement level player his whole career. He debuted in 2015 and has a total WAR of 7.9.

 

The only good thing about putting Matz in the rotation would be the cost savings. He's just not very reliable though and has a very low ceiling. His numbers were similar to ERod last year, but he's just not a guy you can pencil in every 5th day.

[moonslav59]

Kyle and Corey are Seagers

Pete is a Seeger

Bob is a Seger

 

 

Right, you are!

 

Sign 'em all and Turn the Page...

[Old Red]

The only good thing about putting Matz in the rotation would be the cost savings. He's just not very reliable though and has a very low ceiling. His numbers were similar to ERod last year, but he's just not a guy you can pencil in every 5th day.

 

Matz is a step down from E Rod, and if cost savings is the deciding factor, which is a good possibility then the Sox are heading in the wrong direction. True they made the post season last year, but they also came very close to being on the outside looking in.

[mvp 78]

Matz is a step down from E Rod, and if cost savings is the deciding factor, which is a good possibility then the Sox are heading in the wrong direction. True they made the post season last year, but they also came very close to being on the outside looking in.

 

It depends on how well they can spend that savings. Clubs like Tampa are able to do a lot with just a little. Sox should have the flexibility to go over for special players but be mindful of overspending for the sake of overspending.

[notin]

Matz is a step down from E Rod, and if cost savings is the deciding factor, which is a good possibility then the Sox are heading in the wrong direction. True they made the post season last year, but they also came very close to being on the outside looking in.

 

But then signing big name free agents really doesn't guarantee anything either. If it did, one might think the Angels would make the post-season once in a while.

[mvp 78]

But then signing big name free agents really doesn't guarantee anything either. If it did, one might think the Angels would make the post-season once in a while.

 

@jonmorosi

Noah Syndergaard is making progress on a deal with the #Angels, source says. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

Get that monorail ready!

[notin]

@jonmorosi

Noah Syndergaard is making progress on a deal with the #Angels, source says. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

Get that monorail ready!

 

Here is the thing about the Angels - their biggest problem over the past several seasons has been injured pitchers. So to fix this problem, they are looking at a guy with 2 IP in the past two seasons?

[mvp 78]

Here is the thing about the Angels - their biggest problem over the past several seasons has been injured pitchers. So to fix this problem, they are looking at a guy with 2 IP in the past two seasons?

 

He's well rested.

[moonslav59]

Matz is a step down from E Rod, and if cost savings is the deciding factor, which is a good possibility then the Sox are heading in the wrong direction. True they made the post season last year, but they also came very close to being on the outside looking in.

 

If we have a $40M winter spending budget like last winter's "blueprint," and we spend $9M x 3 on Matz instead of $18.4M on ERod, what will matter most is not just how well Matz will do vs ERod, but what we spend the other $9M on- the amount saved by ERod not taking the QO.

 

Are we a better team, if we sign

$14M x 4 R Iglesias

$9M x 3 Matz

$9M x 3 Graveman

$5M x 2 Y Gomes (-$2M nontender Plawecki)

$3.5M x 2 Iggy