A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

The only way to insure that only the best team from both leagues makes it to the WS is to have each league have one division of 15 teams. No wild cards, only the 1st place teams head to the WS. Of course that will never happen because fairness will never replace the money factor.

 

Btw, that was how it worked for a very long time long ago.

 

It's not just money. Fans like to see more playoff games. Some barely watch the season but watch nearly all the playoffs.

 

More teams in the playoffs does make more money, but it also keeps more fans interested perhaps at the expense of the better teams not winning due to the long road to a ring.

[mvp 78]

But the most important question of the off-season - what will JD Martinez do? - is now on the clock.

 

I think, in the absence of a new CBA, he would be unwise to opt out. But we shall see what Scott Boras advises him on. Boras does have a history of having these clauses put in primarily to exercise them if the player is still any good...

 

If he hits like he did in the 2nd half of 2021 and all of 2020, he may wish he opted out.

[notin]

If he hits like he did in the 2nd half of 2021 and all of 2020, he may wish he opted out.

 

His lackluster second half did not go unnoticed by other GMs. Perhaps staying is less of a gamble than we realize?

[moonslav59]

The other thing that happens all to often, is fans start thinking the main reason they lost the last few games of the playoffs is the area they need to fix mostly, that winter.

 

The flip side is that we need to keep all the playoff stars of the ring team. (Like Pearce)

 

Often times, the reason you lose in the playoffs matches your actually weakest area, but not always.

 

[notin]

The only way to insure that only the best team from both leagues makes it to the WS is to have each league have one division of 15 teams. No wild cards, only the 1st place teams head to the WS. Of course that will never happen because fairness will never replace the money factor.

 

Btw, that was how it worked for a very long time long ago.

 

Of course, for the overwhelming bulk of that post-season structure, there was no TV money and teams only played during the day....

[moonslav59]

His lackluster second half did not go unnoticed by other GMs. Perhaps staying is less of a gamble than we realize?

 

It seems some GMs actually fall in love with players that do well in the playoffs, so maybe that might sway someone to forget the second half and think, "JD is back!"

[notin]

It seems some GMs actually fall in love with players that do well in the playoffs, so maybe that might sway someone to forget the second half and think, "JD is back!"

 

These players represent multimillion dollar investments and GMs are held accountable for them. While some players who do have successful postseasons get generous contracts, I'd be willing to bet there were many other factors in play.

 

Pablo Sandoval is an example we can all identify with, as he had some terrific postseasons, and his deal certainly looked questionable (at least to me) at the time. But he was also just 28 years old, which was young for a free agent, and scored very well on a lot of defensive metrics. His post-season numbers certainly did not hurt him at all, but no one commits $90mill based solely on 167 PA spread out over 5 years. If teams did, free agency would have been kinder to David Freese, Steve Pearce, David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy...

[moonslav59]

These players represent multimillion dollar investments and GMs are held accountable for them. While some players who do have successful postseasons get generous contracts, I'd be willing to bet there were many other factors in play.

 

Pablo Sandoval is an example we can all identify with, as he had some terrific postseasons, and his deal certainly looked questionable (at least to me) at the time. But he was also just 28 years old, which was young for a free agent, and scored very well on a lot of defensive metrics. His post-season numbers certainly did not hurt him at all, but no one commits $90mill based solely on 167 PA spread out over 5 years. If teams did, free agency would have been kinder to David Freese, Steve Pearce, David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy...

 

If someone views JD's scond half of the season as evidecne his decline is real on likely to continue, maybe the nice playoffs lessens that belief enough to sway a GM to sign him to longer or larger thatn they would have otehrwise.

 

No way will he get a deal as long as Pablo's, but I do think his playoff numbers will help. While it was just 38 PAs, that 1.130 OPS likely helped him.

He also hit .899 in his last 121 PAs of 2021, so if you add the playoffs, he was over .950 in his last 160 PAs of 2021.

 

Likely enough to get him to opt out.

[Bellhorn04]

If someone views JD's scond half of the season as evidecne his decline is real on likely to continue, maybe the nice playoffs lessens that belief enough to sway a GM to sign him to longer or larger thatn they would have otehrwise.

 

No way will he get a deal as long as Pablo's, but I do think his playoff numbers will help. While it was just 38 PAs, that 1.130 OPS likely helped him.

He also hit .899 in his last 121 PAs of 2021, so if you add the playoffs, he was over .950 in his last 160 PAs of 2021.

 

Likely enough to get him to opt out.

 

What I would say is that JD proved again in 2021 that he's a pretty consistent .900 OPS guy.

 

The only numbers working against him are the ones on his birth certificate.

[moonslav59]

Key Dates

 

November 3: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2022 season. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

 

November 7, 4:00 pm CST: The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers (one-year, $18.4MM contracts) to eligible free agents. For a breakdown of the draft choices teams would forfeit by signing a qualified free agent, see here.

 

November 8: Free agency officially opens.

 

November 8-11: General managers’ meetings, hosted in Carlsbad, California.

 

November 17: Deadline for players tagged with a qualifying offer to accept or reject the QO.

 

November 19: Deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

 

December 1, 11:59 pm: Expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. If MLB and the MLBPA do not agree on a new CBA by then, the league may institute a lockout that freezes teams’ ability to make transactions until negotiations are resolved.

 

December 2: The deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

 

December 6-9: Winter meetings scheduled to take place in Orlando, Florida.

 

December 8: Rule 5 draft.

 

December 15: Conclusion of the 2020-21 international amateur signing period. Typically scheduled to run from July through June, the 2020-21 and 2021-22 international signing periods were delayed to run from January through December as part of MLB’s COVID-19 rules changes.

 

January 14, 2022: Date for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange filing figures. Teams and players are still free to settle and avoid arbitration after this date, although many clubs elect to proceed with a “file-and-trial” strategy — essentially deciding to proceed to a hearing with any players with whom a settlement is not reached by then.

 

January 15, 2022: The scheduled start of the 2021-22 international amateur signing period. The 2021-22 period is scheduled to run through December 15, 2022.

 

February 26, 2022: First games of Spring Training.

 

March 31, 2022: Opening Day.

[mvp 78]

Key Dates

 

November 3: The beginning of a five-day period where teams and players must decide whether to exercise or decline contract options and opt-out clauses for the 2022 season. Eligible free agents cannot sign with anyone but their current team for five more days.

 

Start that s*** on a Monday, not bury it on a Friday.

[moonslav59]

The 40 Man Roster will be trimmed, soon.

 

Free Agents (4):

Ottavino

Robles

Shaw

Santana

 

QO? (1)

ERod

 

Options (3)

Richards $10M (NO)

Vazquez $7M (YES)

Perez $6M (NO)

 

Opt Outs/Player Options (2)

JD Martinez $19.35M

Schwarber $11.5M

 

Assuming we keep Vaz and count everyone else as free agents or not on the roster, for now, that opens up 9 slots:

 

ERod, JD, Schwarber, Ottavino, Robles, Richards, Perez, Shaw & Shaw.

 

Rule 5 Add-Ons (6):

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

Santos

Feltman

Crawford

 

Borderline Add-Ons (1-4):

Jimenez

T Ward

K Ort

K Cottam

 

Assuming we protect 6-7, that leaves 2-3 open slots for other additions, including maybe ERod, JD or Schwarber.

 

Adding anyone else means trading or letting other players go. Here are the to candidates:

 

Potts

Rosario

Arauz

Plawecki

Valdez, Bazardo or Davis

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What I would say is that JD proved again in 2021 that he's a pretty consistent .900 OPS guy.

 

The only numbers working against him are the ones on his birth certificate.

 

And the number of bases someone left in the dirt, the next time he tries to jog to the outfield.

[notin]

What I would say is that JD proved again in 2021 that he's a pretty consistent .900 OPS guy.

 

The only numbers working against him are the ones on his birth certificate.

 

And the numbers associated with the positions he doesn't play, i.e. all of them...

[Bellhorn04]

And the numbers associated with the positions he doesn't play, i.e. all of them...

 

And the going rate for other DH's.

[notin]

And the going rate for other DH's.

 

Vs the demands of JDM, and more accurately, the asking price from Boras. I'm sure he is already crafting his offers from mystery teams...

[mvp 78]

And the going rate for other DH's.

 

Cruz has never made more than 14M. Last year he made 13M.

 

At a similar age, Cruz signed his 4/57 deal.

[Nick]

Are the Sox fans that high maintenance wife?

 

We think nothing of it to give a $10M raise to a pitcher at best had an average season at the same time complaining about our payroll being high.

 

Isn't there a better use of that $18M? Just asking.

[moonslav59]

Are the Sox fans that high maintenance wife?

 

We think nothing of it to give a $10M raise to a pitcher at best had an average season at the same time complaining about our payroll being high.

 

Isn't there a better use of that $18M? Just asking.

 

I'd rather pay ERod $10M more than to try another Richards on for size.

[Bellhorn04]

Are the Sox fans that high maintenance wife?

 

We think nothing of it to give a $10M raise to a pitcher at best had an average season at the same time complaining about our payroll being high.

 

Isn't there a better use of that $18M? Just asking.

 

The thing is, you're dealing with the vagaries of the baseball payroll system, with its built-in hefty instant raises.

 

I did a comparison not long ago between E-Rod and Stroman. It showed that Stroman's pitching fWAR per inning is about 5% better. But E-Rod is also 22 months younger.

 

Anyway, you're right that the question is whether that chunk of money could be spent better or not. Hard to say. Glad Bloom is the one who has to make the calls.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Are the Sox fans that high maintenance wife?

 

We think nothing of it to give a $10M raise to a pitcher at best had an average season at the same time complaining about our payroll being high.

 

Isn't there a better use of that $18M? Just asking.

 

Even if we wanted to be Tampa Bay North, we can't, unless we cut budget significantly. We should have $35-40M to spend and I see 3-5 open slots. We can't spend the $35M on 10 players. There is no roster slots for that.

 

We have to go somewhat big on 1-2 players. An $18.4M/1 deal for ERod is not a bad deal.

 

We might get someone better for cheaper per year, but not just one year.

 

We might get someone good for one year but not as good as ERod.

[moonslav59]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

Wow, that's pretty crazy money - an AAV of $35 mill.

[moonslav59]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

Here's a wild scenario...

 

Let's say we have $40M for the winter budget and trade Bogey ($20M) and Vaz ($7M) and JD opts out ($19M). That makes about $86M to spend:

 

$25M Semien (SS)

$23M Stroman (SP)

$18M ERod (SP)

$14M Schwarber (DH/OF/1B)

$3M Iggy Utility

$3M Pina

 

1. Kike CF

2. Schwarber DH

3. Semien SS

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe RF

6. Verdugo LF

7. Dalbec-Casas 1B

8. Arroyo-Iggy 2B

9. Pina- Plawecki/Wong C

 

Eovaldi, Sale, Stroman, ERod, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Taylor, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Davis

 

Not sure this is any better than the 2021 team, except for the rotation.

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Wow, that's pretty crazy money - an AAV of $35 mill.

 

Weird how he is worth $35M, but Semien is $25M and Baez is below the top ten level.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

 

 

 

So according to this source, small market contenders in Tampa, Oakland and Seatttle, plus zero Central Division teams cannot or choose not to spend on "Top 10" talent...

 

How many of the "not mentioned" guys can Boston afford to add in one winter: a starter, a closer, a hitter, and a multi-position infielder?

[notin]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

 

 

 

 

So the Marlins are expected to dole out a $340mill/10 year deal? Let me guess on the backloading. $5mill per for the first 8 years and then the final 2 years at $150mill each…

[oldtimer]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

 

 

 

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. The only guy on this who was on a WS winning team was Freddie Freeman. The Braves won't let Freddie walk.

 

Correa is a very good short stop but didn't do a lot against the good pitching of the Braves

 

I can see Semien, as it weakens Jays. Only if we trade Bogaerts, which is by no means an easy thing to do.

 

I can see Stroman, particularly if E-Rod leaves.

 

I can see Marte if Renfroe is traded.

 

I can see Schwaber if JDM opts out.

 

I think Iglesias is needed and hopefully he can perform to expectations.

 

Backfill from the organization for the rest.

[Bellhorn04]

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. The only guy on this who was on a WS winning team was Freddie Freeman. The Braves won't let Freddie walk.

 

Correa, Seager, Bryant and Scherzer were all on WS winning teams.

[oldtimer]

Here's a wild scenario...

 

Let's say we have $40M for the winter budget and trade Bogey ($20M) and Vaz ($7M) and JD opts out ($19M). That makes about $86M to spend:

 

$25M Semien (SS)

$23M Stroman (SP)

$18M ERod (SP)

$14M Schwarber (DH/OF/1B)

$3M Iggy Utility

$3M Pina

 

1. Kike CF

2. Schwarber DH

3. Semien SS

4. Devers 3B

5. Renfroe RF

6. Verdugo LF

7. Dalbec-Casas 1B

8. Arroyo-Iggy 2B

9. Pina- Plawecki/Wong C

 

Eovaldi, Sale, Stroman, ERod, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Taylor, Barnes, DHern, Sawamura, Davis

 

Not sure this is any better than the 2021 team, except for the rotation.

 

 

My view:

 

Kike RF

Schwaber DH

Semien SS

Devers 3B

Marte CF

Verdugo LF

Dalbec/Casas 1B

Arroyo/Downs 2B

Vaz/Hernandez C

 

Eovaldi, Sale, Stroman, Pivetta, Houck, Seabold

 

Iglesias, Whitlock, Taylor, D-Hern, Sawamura, Brasier, Barnes, Valdez

 

UT: Casas, Downs, Duran