A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

 

If the player only stays a year or two, it's usually because they're just not good enough.

 

True, and when you compare what these players that only make if for a year or two to other professions, they will look overpaid, but most of these guys went through years of minor league play, where the pay is also decent, when compared to most Americans, and we all feel like they are living the dream of getting paid to do what they and most of us love/loved to do. I get that, but this is not like most businesses, and a lot of money is being made. The entertainment business is loaded with highly paid people- some who flame out early but still accumulated a sizeable nest egg. In this sense, baseball is probably in line with the movie and music business. The stars get the lion's share of the money the owners don't take for themselves.

 

I'm looking at it from the union's perspective. They seem to be focusing on maximizing the mega paydays for just a few dozen players at the expense of everyone else. It's just my opinion, and I used to be a union rep who fought for raising the most senior members pay as a top priority, but that was based on the idea that other members would all reach that years of service number and get the raises. That's not how baseball works.

[moonslav59]

Everybody who's good enough and durable enough gets their shot at free agency if that's what they want.

 

No doubt. The others are basically just place marks that fill out the roster, so there's enough players on the field to have a game.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Projects these arb costs:

 

$11.1 Devers

$7.6M Renfroe

$3.2M Pivetta

$3.2M Verdugo

$2.0M Kevin Plawecki

$1.4M Ryan Brasier

$1.1M Arroyo

$1.1M Taylor

$1.0M Franchy Cordero (was DFA'd, not claimed and reassigned to non 40 man minors)

 

I'm thinking we may replace Plawecki with a $600K Wong or R Hernandez, or even go with a FA back-up, assuming we keep Vaz at $7M.

 

I'm think Renfroe's deal looks kind of high, and we may look to find a better defensive RF'er to repalce or platoon with Hunter. $7.6M is a lot for a short end platoon player.

 

The rest looks about right. The total is about $30-31M.

 

Here's an updated look at our 2022 Lux Tax Budget:

 

Locked Up: $100.5M

25.6 Sale

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price

9.38 Barnes

7.00 Kike

1.50 Sawamura

 

Arbs $31M

Devers 2 of 3, Renfroe 3 of 4, Plawecki 4 of 4, Brasier 2 of 3, Cordero 2 of 3, Pivetta 1 of 3, Arroyo 1 of 3, Taylor 1 of 4

 

Pre-Arb Keepers (on 40 man):

D Hernandez, P Valdez, Houck, Dalbec. Whitlock, Duran, Groome, B Mata, Y Rios, C Seabold, C Wong

 

Pre-Arb Bubblers (on 40 man):

A Davis, Arauz, Bazardo, Ro Hernandez, H Potts, J Rosario

 

Player Opt Out or Mutual Option: ($19.5M)

22.0 JD (19.4 projected no opt out)

10.0 Schwarber (11.5 m/o w 3 b/o) projected no option

 

Team Options (my projection) 2021lux tax): ($7M)

10.0 w 1.5 b/o Richards (NO) 10.0

6.0 w 500K b/o Perez (NO) 5.0

7.0 w 250K b/o Vaz (YES) 4.5

3.5 w 250K b/o Andriese (NO) 2.1

 

Free Agents (2021 $$$ lux tax):

13.8 Pedey (Retired)

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod

3.0 Marwin (DFA'd)

2.8 Beni (paid to KCR-2021)

2.0 Robles

??? Santana

(NYY paid us $1.8M for Ottavino in 2021)

 

TOTAL BUDGET:

159M

2.5M other 40man roster players

+15.5M Player Benefits

 

$177M

 

If the Tax line is $210M, that leaves about $33M to reach it.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm looking at it from the union's perspective. They seem to be focusing on maximizing the mega paydays for just a few dozen players at the expense of everyone else. It's just my opinion, and I used to be a union rep who fought for raising the most senior members pay as a top priority, but that was based on the idea that other members would all reach that years of service number and get the raises. That's not how baseball works.

 

I do agree that the union should be working on behalf of everyone, not just the stars.

 

With regard to the minimum wage, I can see them pushing for an increase, but I don't think it's realistic to be looking to double it.

[moonslav59]

I do agree that the union should be working on behalf of everyone, not just the stars.

 

With regard to the minimum wage, I can see them pushing for an increase, but I don't think it's realistic to be looking to double it.

 

So, if you almost doubled the min wage from like $600K to $1M, you'd be adding $400K for every non-arb and post arb player.

 

If that's 10 players, it's $4M, 20 players- $8M. I don't think that is so crushing to owners, especially, if there is a give back by the union- perhaps directed at limiting mega deal contracts.

 

While $4-8M is a lot of money, especially for small market or low-budget teams, I don't think it would be a deal-breaker for owners.

 

A lot would depend on what the rest of the deal looks like, of course.

 

OTOH, significantly raising minor league pay would be a big cost increase and might force further cutbacks to the amount of minor league teams and players.

[dgalehouse]

By thinking of the jdm decision as a key to start the ball rolling, I mean it will come early and clarify whether we stay with him or go after Schwaber. I don't expect jdm to be tradable and don't see us trying to carry both players, as that money could be best used elsewhere.

 

I think the Collective Bargaining Agreement will go through many ups and downs with a work stoppage a real possibility. The players want to have a strong FA market while the owners want to expand their take. The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022. I see it as more of a wet blanket of trades and FA until a settlement is reached.

 

All businesses try to increase their profits year to year as stockholders invest with the thought of getting a reasonable ROI. I don't know of other businesses in which workers can expect to have long term contracts at such absurd salaries.

The owners and the players are fighting over slices of the pie. No matter what , we are paying for the pie. The whole pie.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Everybody who's good enough and durable enough gets their shot at free agency if that's what they want.

 

I sincerely hope all players do get their shots... not to be political, but from a fan standpoint; I really hope in the CBA negotiations that owners insist on player vaccines for the coming season -- like in other pro sports.

 

There may be no data yet on any longterm adverse effects from Covid vaccines, but has any professional athlete had a bad outcome from actually getting the shot? We certainly know the ill effects on a team's season when multiple players miss time, either recovering from the virus or from quarantines after being exposed to teammates who test positive. It's just not fair to uniformed or non-uniform employees, the fanbase, even the sponsors, for a club not to take every measure possible to guard against what could be a debilitating outbreak on many levels.

[moonslav59]

The owners and the players are fighting over slices of the pie. No matter what , we are paying for the pie. The whole pie.

 

Agreed. My point is that the piece of pie gong to the players should be more equitably distributed.

[dgalehouse]

Any time somebody says " not to be political " , they are about to get political. Every single time. Do we have a policy that says " No politics unless you preface it by saying " not to be political" ?

[moonslav59]

Any time somebody says " not to be political " , they are about to get political. Every single time. Do we have a policy that says " No politics unless you preface it by saying " not to be political" ?

 

One could argue everything and anything people talk about is "political."

[Nick]

Under 30 and you can't live on $600K? I'm sure the fans will feel sorry for you.

[moonslav59]

Under 30 and you can't live on $600K? I'm sure the fans will feel sorry for you.

 

It's about some players making $20-35M and others $600K.

 

Now doubt, I'd give my left nut to play 1 inning in MLB for free.

 

With so much money being generated, is $600K really fair in this context?

[notin]

Under 30 and you can't live on $600K? I'm sure the fans will feel sorry for you.

 

Well, you also might be unable to perform your job due to injury or just not being good enough anymore by age 25…

[notin]

It's about some players making $20-35M and others $600K.

 

Now doubt, I'd give my left nut to play 1 inning in MLB for free.

 

With so much money being generated, is $600K really fair in this context?

 

Just so you know, there is not a single MLB owner or GM interested in acquiring your left nut. You might need a better bargaining chip…

[moonslav59]

Just so you know, there is not a single MLB owner or GM interested in acquiring your left nut. You might need a better bargaining chip…

 

It's made of diamonds.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any time somebody says " not to be political " , they are about to get political. Every single time. Do we have a policy that says " No politics unless you preface it by saying " not to be political" ?

 

You're right. I shouldn't have said it, and shouldn't have to say it -- not about a worldwide health issue that we all know has had a direct impact the past two years on the specific team we follow and talk about on this board.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just so you know, there is not a single MLB owner or GM interested in acquiring your left nut. You might need a better bargaining chip…

 

In defense of notin's reply to Nick, it's obvious auto-correct omitted a few curly punctuation marks. When MLB GMs determined that there was no way they'd sign Nick, notin meant to say, "you're left, nut."

[jad]

You're right. I shouldn't have said it, and shouldn't have to say it -- not about a worldwide health issue that we all know has had a direct impact the past two years on the specific team we follow and talk about on this board.

 

Just remember, this is a guy who thinks a reason to go to a game is to yell death threats at the umpires. I don't think we need to take his advice on the ethics and proprieties of posting seriously.

[Bellhorn04]

Just remember, this is a guy who thinks a reason to go to a game is to yell death threats at the umpires. I don't think we need to take his advice on the ethics and proprieties of posting seriously.

 

To be fair, in Denny's (dgalehouse's) experience, when you said 'kill the ump', you didn't mean it literally.

[notin]

To be fair, in Denny's (dgalehouse's) experience, when you said 'kill the ump', you didn't mean it literally.

 

And, if you are a “glass half full” type, it makes zero mention of the umpire’s family…

[jad]

To be fair, in Denny's (dgalehouse's) experience, when you said 'kill the ump', you didn't mean it literally.

 

Then I would say: "This is a guy who thinks the reason to go to games is to yell FAKE death threats at umpires." Which of course is hardly better.

[moonslav59]

To be fair, in Denny's (dgalehouse's) experience, when you said 'kill the ump', you didn't mean it literally.

 

True, but still not okay yelling death threats at umps in front of small children.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And, if you are a “glass half full” type, it makes zero mention of the umpire’s family…

 

Well... in terms of inheriting chromosomes, then it's not the ump's fault if he has bad eyesight. Of course, unless he's old... and then diminished vision is a normal part of aging. But we can't even suggest eye tests once they hit a certain age, because if society did that for drivers, most of us would be taking the bus!

 

How does this correlate to robots? When one breaks down, it just gets replaced. End of Halloween post.

[Bellhorn04]

Then I would say: "This is a guy who thinks the reason to go to games is to yell FAKE death threats at umpires." Which of course is hardly better.

 

All I can say is that from my interactions with Denny, he's a reasonable fellow, a little old school, but not someone who would actually approve of death threats of any sort. Back in the day "kill the ump" was considered to be funny.

 

I preferred mildly clever insults like "Hey ref, open your eyes, you're missing a good game!"

[moonslav59]

All I can say is that from my interactions with Denny, he's a reasonable fellow, a little old school, but not someone who would actually approve of death threats of any sort. Back in the day "kill the ump" was considered to be funny.

 

I preferred mildly clever insults like "Hey ref, open your eyes, you're missing a good game!"

 

I didn't take Denny's comments as all that inflammatory, but the response made jad has merit.

[notin]

I didn't take Denny's comments as all that inflammatory, but the response made jad has merit.

 

And I’m not so sure the old fashioned calls to kill the umpire are all that present anymore. But you just can’t express the same level of frustration by yelling “Decommission the robot!”

[a700hitter]

Just remember, this is a guy who thinks a reason to go to a game is to yell death threats at the umpires. I don't think we need to take his advice on the ethics and proprieties of posting seriously.

Denny is okay. This ^ isn’t.

[Nick]

If this was a public company, meeting of investors may go something like this.

 

This is what I would ask if I'm a stockholder.

 

We saw many positives this year on the heels of 2020.

 

But the fact remains, we finished 8 games behind the Rays. 8 games. Getting a wildcard birth and advancing to the finals of ALC does not erase where we ended in the Division.

 

Winning the Division should be the goal. By winning the toughest Division, we're confident in out ability to compete for World Series title.

 

What are your plans to narrow the gap and win the Division?

 

Don't ask for additional money. We're already one of high spenders. Your budget is $220M.

 

Is it doable or do we need to hire a need management team?

 

What do you say Moon?

Edited October 31, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

If this was a public company, meeting of investors may go something like this.

 

This is what I would ask if I'm a stockholder.

 

We saw many positives this year on the heels of 2020.

 

But the fact remains, we finished 8 games behind the Rays. 8 games. Getting a wildcard birth and advancing to the finals of ALC does not erase where we ended in the Division.

 

Winning the Division should be the goal. By winning the toughest Division, we're confident in out ability to compete for World Series title.

 

What are your plans to narrow the gap and win the Division?

 

Don't ask for additional money. We're already one of high spenders. Your budget is $220M.

 

Is it doable or do we need to hire a need management team?

 

What do you say Moon?

 

It absolutely does.

 

Would it have been preferable to win the division and lose our only postseason series?

[moonslav59]

Denny is okay. This ^ isn’t.

 

Pot meet kettle.