A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[sk7326]

I'm with you. As for Bloom, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

What's more likely for Bloom: a Bogaerts reworked extension for 4/5 or a Devers offer for 9/10 (and we know if Rafie keeps on raking through arb, that someone will offer him a longterm)?

 

Devers. Remember, Tampa was EXTREMELY aggressive getting Longoria locked up well before his arbitration years. Even as a dirt poor/cheap team, they understood the principle. If you've got a blue chipper and can buy a couple of his UFA years - before arbitration, it is unlikely you will get ripped off. Like, I'd fully expect Tampa to try to get Wander Franco locked up for a long deal.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers. Remember, Tampa was EXTREMELY aggressive getting Longoria locked up well before his arbitration years. Even as a dirt poor/cheap team, they understood the principle. If you've got a blue chipper and can buy a couple of his UFA years - before arbitration, it is unlikely you will get ripped off. Like, I'd fully expect Tampa to try to get Wander Franco locked up for a long deal.

 

And he might prefer to go the Mookie Betts route.

[mvp 78]

And he might prefer to go the Mookie Betts route.

 

Wander or Devers?

 

Wander seems like a potential max contract guy. Devers does not.

[Bellhorn04]

Wander or Devers?

 

Wander seems like a potential max contract guy. Devers does not.

 

Wander.

[mvp 78]

Wander.

 

Yeah, I could see him either wanting Tatis money or just take it to arb.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Either way with Wander, at least he'll only be a Ray for 4 more years (before they have to trade him for prospects). Then we just have to hope LA outbids NY for his prime.

[notin]

Wander.

 

His similarity to Betts does not end with his multi-faceted stellar play. Franco also comes from a baseball family, as his uncles are Erick and Willy Aybar.

 

Tampa might be able to look him up through his arb years and maybe buy out a year or two of free agency, at which time Franco will be 27-28 and still be able to cash in heaviy in free agency...

[moonslav59]

Either way with Wander, at least he'll only be a Ray for 4 more years (before they have to trade him for prospects). Then we just have to hope LA outbids NY for his prime.

 

They don't always wait to the last year to make a deal.

[notin]

They don't always wait to the last year to make a deal.

 

Heck they extended Matt Moore after 2 starts. And Longoria signed his first extension with the Rays after one week in MLB...

[Bellhorn04]

Heck they extended Matt Moore after 2 starts. And Longoria signed his first extension with the Rays after one week in MLB...

 

Yes, to the piddliest long-term deal in modern times LOL

[moonslav59]

BTV has some mighty big values assigned to many players not named Casas or Mayer.

 

Acuna, Tatis & Soto are off the charts (over 267).

 

Corbin, Wander, Burnes, Buehler & Ohtani are between 158 and 190.

 

Bichette, L Robert & O Albies are between 119-128

 

44 players are between 58 and 118

 

Devers is at 57.2

Not bad being ranked 54th with just 2 years of team control. Wander has 6 years.

 

Casas is 58th at 54.4

Mayer is 86th at 42.8

Houck is 85th at 42.7

Verdugo is 88th at 41.0

Montas is 92nd

 

Other Sox Players

32 Bogey

23 Duran

22 Yorke

14 Eovaldi

13 Dalbec

12 Downs

11 Taylor

11 Jimenez

11 Kike

6 Mata (big gap)

5 Pivetta, Bello, Renfroe, Whitlock

4 Jordan, Groome, Gonzalez, Seabold

3 Wickowski, McDonough, Rosario, RHern, Arroyo, Bonaci, Lugo, Ward

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Heck they extended Matt Moore after 2 starts. And Longoria signed his first extension with the Rays after one week in MLB...

 

Think they've offered anything to Wander yet?

[mvp 78]

Yes, to the piddliest long-term deal in modern times LOL

 

6/17.5M...

 

I think Wander wouldn't go for that.

[notin]

6/17.5M...

 

I think Wander wouldn't go for that.

 

A 6yr/$48mill deal might make sense for both sides...

[mvp 78]

A 6yr/$48mill deal might make sense for both sides...

 

Maybe. He would be up for arbitration in years 4, 5 and 6. He'd make 8/15/20 in those years? He could make a few million more if he goes through arbitration, but this would be a guaranteed amount of money that would set him up for life even if he has a career ending injury.

[notin]

Maybe. He would be up for arbitration in years 4, 5 and 6. He'd make 8/15/20 in those years? He could make a few million more if he goes through arbitration, but this would be a guaranteed amount of money that would set him up for life even if he has a career ending injury.

 

He might lose a few million assuming his career goes as expected and he does not get injured.

 

I would think it made enough sense for him to have a boatload of money guaranteed and still reach free agency by age 27...

[mvp 78]

He might lose a few million assuming his career goes as expected and he does not get injured.

 

I would think it made enough sense for him to have a boatload of money guaranteed and still reach free agency by age 27...

 

Yes, he'd lose "a few" million, but unless the arbitration dollars go through the roof, it'd be close enough.

[moonslav59]

A 6yr/$48mill deal might make sense for both sides...

 

They could do more, if the money is back-end loaded, so trading him would be almost a sure thing before the last 1-2 years.

[mvp 78]

They could do more, if the money is back-end loaded, so trading him would be almost a sure thing before the last 1-2 years.

 

The more money you tack on, the less you get in return.

[Nick]

Semien or Baez would be nice. They can play 2B until 2022, or we could trade Bogey to a team that lost their great SS to free agency- like HOU

 

I like this idea......I'd do the same with Schwarber....it's only one year overlap with JD.....and he's better hitter than both Dalbec and Verdugo. I look at as direct trade off for Price's salary coming off after 2022. Probably similar amount of money. If we're going to go over for 2022 and I expect us to, then we might as well get the FAs one year early.

[moonslav59]

The more money you tack on, the less you get in return.

 

True, but getting him to sign is most important.

[moonslav59]

Semien or Baez would be nice. They can play 2B until 2022, or we could trade Bogey to a team that lost their great SS to free agency- like HOU

 

I like this idea......I'd do the same with Schwarber....it's only one year overlap with JD.....and he's better hitter than both Dalbec and Verdugo. I look at as direct trade off for Price's salary coming off after 2022. Probably similar amount of money. If we're going to go over for 2022 and I expect us to, then we might as well get the FAs one year early.

 

Signing Semien/Baez and Schwarber would pretty much force a trade of Bogey, or we'd have no money for pitching. No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Perez and Andriese.

[moonslav59]

Semien or Baez would be nice. They can play 2B until 2022, or we could trade Bogey to a team that lost their great SS to free agency- like HOU

 

I like this idea......I'd do the same with Schwarber....it's only one year overlap with JD.....and he's better hitter than both Dalbec and Verdugo. I look at as direct trade off for Price's salary coming off after 2022. Probably similar amount of money. If we're going to go over for 2022 and I expect us to, then we might as well get the FAs one year early.

 

Perhaps something like this might work:

 

Sign Semien or Baez

Sign Schwarber

Sign Iggy

Sign ERod or the like

Trade Bogey and Dalbec for a young, cost-controlled pitcher like Montas and a solid RP'er. (A third team would have to get involved, if we are to get a pitcher from a low spending team like the A's. Bogey costs too much.

 

2022

Eovaldi, ERod, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, RP'er by trade, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier DHern, Sawamura

 

1. Kike CF

2. Schwarber 1B

3. Semien SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo LF

7. Renfroe RF

8. Iggy 2B

9. Vaz C

Bench: Arroyo, Casas, Plawecki or RHern, Duran

 

[mvp 78]

Signing Semien/Baez and Schwarber would pretty much force a trade of Bogey, or we'd have no money for pitching. No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Perez and Andriese.

 

I don't think Baez is going to cost nearly as much as Semien. Theoretically, I think they could sign Baez and Schwarber and still have enough for Xander and Devers going forward. You would just be unable to get FA acquisitions at any other offensive position.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Baez is going to cost nearly as much as Semien. Theoretically, I think they could sign Baez and Schwarber and still have enough for Xander and Devers going forward. You would just be unable to get FA acquisitions at any other offensive position.

 

So, basically nothing for pitching? No ERod. (Maybe 2 RP'ers for $6M combined?)

 

1. Eovaldi

2. Whitlock

3. Sale

4. Pivetta

5. Seabold

6. Crawford/Winckowski

 

1. Houck

2. Barnes

3. Taylor

4. Brasier

5. $3M RP'er (like maybe Andriese was this year)

6. $3M RP'er

7. DHern

8. Sawamura/Davis

 

That's $42M: $20M Baez, $16M Schwarber, $3M RP, $3M RP

[notin]

Perhaps something like this might work:

 

Sign Semien or Baez

Sign Schwarber

Sign Iggy

Sign ERod or the like

Trade Bogey and Dalbec for a young, cost-controlled pitcher like Montas and a solid RP'er. (A third team would have to get involved, if we are to get a pitcher from a low spending team like the A's. Bogey costs too much.

 

2022

Eovaldi, ERod, Montas, Sale, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, RP'er by trade, Barnes, Taylor, Brasier DHern, Sawamura

 

1. Kike CF

2. Schwarber 1B

3. Semien SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Verdugo LF

7. Renfroe RF

8. Iggy 2B

9. Vaz C

Bench: Arroyo, Casas, Plawecki or RHern, Duran

 

 

BTV accepted a trade of Bogaerts and Dalbec for Framber Valdez and Pedro Baez...

[mvp 78]

BTV accepted a trade of Bogaerts and Dalbec for Framber Valdez and Pedro Baez...

 

PEDRO Baez? Framber doesn't move the needle for me. Yuck.

[mvp 78]

That 50 on Valdez just seems high to me. He'll be 28 next year and he's still not a sure thing.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted a trade of Bogaerts and Dalbec for Framber Valdez and Pedro Baez...

 

I've done a few trades with Bogey going to HOU on BTV.

 

Here are some Bogey trades I suggested that were accepted. (Note: I was just playing around on some and would not do those.)

 

Bogey & Vaz to HOU

Korey Lee, C Javier, J James

 

Bogey & Duran to HOU

Urquidy, K Lee, J James

 

Bogey & Vaz to NYY

L Gil, Higashioka & D Garcia

 

Bogey, JD and Duran to LAD

D Cartaya, B Graterol, T Gonsolin

 

Bogey, Duran & Downs to NYY

Loaisiga, O Peraza, L Gil & D Garcia

 

Bogey & Duran to CIN

Hunter Greene, Jose Barreo, V Guttierez

 

Bogey, Duran & Vaz to OAK (too much $$$ for them)

Bassitt, T Soderstrom, P Pineda, S Piscotty, E Andrus

 

Bogey, Duran, Downs, Jimenez, Mata & $4M to NYM

Francisco Alvarez, EDiaz, T Megill

 

[notin]

PEDRO Baez? Framber doesn't move the needle for me. Yuck.

 

YEs, Pedro is needed to take back some casah. He's a salary dump for Houston here.

 

I'm not so high on Framber, either, given that he has only topped 71 IP in the majors one time.

 

But when you're trading one year of a $20mill shortstop, it is possible that expectations need to be tempered a bit...