A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

He might be helped by batting ninth and not coming up with a runner on first and less than 2 out as often as a lot of other hitters…

 

So now we have to look up his GIDP opportunities?

[Maxbialystock]

It's simple: with average D, we'd probably have about 9 more wins and be tied with the Rays.

 

I'm sure they have lost some games due to defense, but they have won some, too- many more than us.

 

DRS has the Rays at +56, and the Sox at -6. That's a 62 run swing on defense. UZR: TBR 7.7/ BOS -0.6

 

Maybe we'd be 1-2 games behind- maybe with some luck or plus D, we'd be division leaders.

 

We are about to get into a chicken and the egg argument because I'm a believer that Sox teams win because they go after good hitters. Good fielders, including the two key positions, CF and SS, are secondary. Thus was Iglesias traded and earlier Gonzalez (or have you forgotten him?). Ellbury stuck in CF mostly because of his offense and speed. He improved his fielding, but always had a weak arm.

 

In 2014 JBJ inherited the CF position after Ellsbury went to the Yankees. Brilliant though he was on defense, JBJ was up in Boston and then back down to Pawtucket like a yo-yo because he could not hit a lick. Finally, finally he started hitting in August and stuck even though his OPS for 2014 was .531.

 

And, I'm sorry, but you can't claim 9 more wins with good defense because, guess what, when you get good fielders at all your positions, you also get their hitting--or have you forgotten about that?

[Maxbialystock]

If the Sox had better defense, the team wouldn't be tied with NY and TOR, they'd be firmly in the pole position for the first WC spot at least.

 

If the Sox had better defense, chances are their good their hitting would suck, or have you never heard the expression, "good field, no hit," which is the label pinned on minor leaguers who can't make it to the majors?

[Maxbialystock]

Better at DH:

JD

Schwarber

 

Probably better at DH:

Renfroe

Dalbec

 

Maybe:

Devers

Bogey

 

 

This is one of the all time great non-sequiturs.

[moonslav59]

Unearned Runs (remember, many runs are scored due to poor defense not called errors)

74 BOS

69 DET

66 MIN

63 NYY

58 LAA

57 SEA

57 TBR

55 TOR

52 TEX

52 CWS

46 KCR

44 HOU

42 CLE

41 BAL

 

BAbip

.323 BOS

.307 LAA

.306 BAL

.300 KCR

.291 SEA

.290 DET

.289 OAK

.288 TBR

.287 MIN & TEX

.284 TOR

.283 CWS

.282 CLE

.279 NYY

.274 HOU

 

 

RED= Contenders

[notin]

Actually, you're wrong because the defense has been the same all season long, including when the Sox led the AL in wins back in July. What went downhill was the rotation, which finally forced Cora to send Richards and Perez to the bullpen, which has also struggled. Indeed, so has the hitting. Let's not forget that in the 2d half the Sox have been hit hard by COVID, which has had it's biggest effect on pitching and hitting, not defense.

 

Indeed, right now with Iglesias at 2b so that Verdugo can play LF, Kike CF, and Renfroe RF, the defense is possibly better than earlier in the season. Even Dalbec has shown signs of mastering 1b--but, sadly, not Schwarber.

 

Part of the reason the pitching went south is because the Sox lead the league in BABIPA, which is about the defense.

 

Also, as pointed out earlier, the Sox pitching is third in K’s but 21st in K%. That’s an impressive split. A big part of that is the defenses inability to get outs on batted balls.

 

COVID might have weakened the pitching and hitting, but this also exposed that those facets were carrying the team. And once the Kutter Crawford’s and Reynal Espinal’s are pressed into service, it magnifies where the team truly struggles…

[moonslav59]

We are about to get into a chicken and the egg argument because I'm a believer that Sox teams win because they go after good hitters. Good fielders, including the two key positions, CF and SS, are secondary. Thus was Iglesias traded and earlier Gonzalez (or have you forgotten him?). Ellbury stuck in CF mostly because of his offense and speed. He improved his fielding, but always had a weak arm.

 

In 2014 JBJ inherited the CF position after Ellsbury went to the Yankees. Brilliant though he was on defense, JBJ was up in Boston and then back down to Pawtucket like a yo-yo because he could not hit a lick. Finally, finally he started hitting in August and stuck even though his OPS for 2014 was .531.

 

And, I'm sorry, but you can't claim 9 more wins with good defense because, guess what, when you get good fielders at all your positions, you also get their hitting--or have you forgotten about that?

 

Point well-taken. We could not improve the defense without hurting the offense, unless we spent large or made perfect signing selections.

 

The overall WAR, which factors in Offense and Defense rates Bogey, Devers, Dalbec and Renfroe as not just pluses, but significant pluses.

 

That's one reason, I said it won't be easy improving our defense, this winter.

 

Trading Bogey would be a massive blow to the offense, unless we sign a similar offensive profile who fields better, but unless the overall WAR is better, it's not really a gain, except for factoring what we get back for Bogey.

 

Moving players around keeps the O and may improve the D.

 

We easily could have won 9 more games, had the players we have now, on offense, were average defenders. My point was not about replacing them with net WAR lessers who play better D. It was just explaining how our defense has played a role in many losses... at least 9 games. Maybe 19.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we've established that our defense is bad and has cost us a lot of runs. But it doesn't necessarily mean Bloom did bad things by acquiring guys like Renfroe or Schwarber, either. You'd have to call it a conscious decision to sacrifice defense for offense...

 

Now if guys are playing bad defense because of bad coaching that's a different story...

[Maxbialystock]

Part of the reason the pitching went south is because the Sox lead the league in BABIPA, which is about the defense.

 

Also, as pointed out earlier, the Sox pitching is third in K’s but 21st in K%. That’s an impressive split. A big part of that is the defenses inability to get outs on batted balls.

 

COVID might have weakened the pitching and hitting, but this also exposed that those facets were carrying the team. And once the Kutter Crawford’s and Reynal Espinal’s are pressed into service, it magnifies where the team truly struggles…

 

The fact remains that the Sox defense has been mediocre the entire season and that what went downhill was the rotation, then the bullpen, and then the hitting.

 

Moreover, none of you has addressed the simple fact that, with this horrendously lousy defense--and there we do agree--the Sox have definitely exceeded expectations this year. And they have exceeded expectations primarily because--wait for it--they have the 3d best team OPS in MLB and the 4th most runs scored.

 

By the way, the team that dazzles me this season is the Rays because they have good pitching and good defense--and also find ways to score runs (most in MLB!!!!!!!) without a bunch of big bats in their lineup. So I am absolutely not opposed to good defense because it's obvious good D makes the Rays better. Yet even they are dependent on a pretty darn good offense to have that 9 game lead.

[Bellhorn04]

We easily could have won 9 more games, had the players we have now, on offense, were average defenders. My point was not about replacing them with net WAR lessers who play better D. It was just explaining how our defense has played a role in many losses... at least 9 games. Maybe 19.

 

There are lots of losses where the pitching, hitting or defense could all be blamed. The runs calculations are the only ones that have much meaning.

[moonslav59]

Part of the reason the pitching went south is because the Sox lead the league in BABIPA, which is about the defense.

 

Also, as pointed out earlier, the Sox pitching is third in K’s but 21st in K%. That’s an impressive split. A big part of that is the defenses inability to get outs on batted balls.

 

COVID might have weakened the pitching and hitting, but this also exposed that those facets were carrying the team. And once the Kutter Crawford’s and Reynal Espinal’s are pressed into service, it magnifies where the team truly struggles…

 

Correct, the 3rd in Ks but 21st in K% exposes the fact that opps just get up way more often against us, due to getting on base more often. We aare 30-40 points over the other contenders in BAbip against. That is handing a lot more PAs to the opps on a silver platter- always with men on base.

 

By allowing more PAs by the opps, we also increase the odds of allowing more HRs, BBs, etc...

 

AL Only

 

Currently, we are 5th in BBs but 7th in BB%.

 

Currently, we are 15th in HRs allowed (best in AL).

The HR/9 stat can be misleading, if one team faces way more batters per 9 innings.

 

The fact that we lead the AL in least amount of HRs allowed while also leading in PAs against is a big plus to our pitching.

 

PAs Against/HRs allowed

5586/162 BOS

5465/178

5411/166 TBR

5375/169 HOU

5367/166 OAK (big park)

5365/174 NYY

5224/170

 

Our pitchers have faced 364 more batters than CWS!

 

I'm not saying our pitchers are better, but our defense giving up extra outs while adding baserunners puts a lot of stress on pitchers.

 

Our HR/PA blows everyone away. that's one reason we are just 0.01 behind 5th place in xFIP and 0.07 from 3rd place.

 

[moonslav59]

There are lots of losses where the pitching, hitting or defense could all be blamed. The runs calculations are the only ones that have much meaning.

 

Agreed, but clearly our defense has factored in more losses than any other contender's D.

 

Our offense has factored in more wins.

 

Our pitching is maybe middle of the road among contenders, when factoring in having to face many more batters and Men on base than others due to errors, poor defense and limited range.

[mvp 78]

Actually, you're wrong because the defense has been the same all season long, including when the Sox led the AL in wins back in July. What went downhill was the rotation, which finally forced Cora to send Richards and Perez to the bullpen, which has also struggled. Indeed, so has the hitting. Let's not forget that in the 2d half the Sox have been hit hard by COVID, which has had it's biggest effect on pitching and hitting, not defense.

 

Indeed, right now with Iglesias at 2b so that Verdugo can play LF, Kike CF, and Renfroe RF, the defense is possibly better than earlier in the season. Even Dalbec has shown signs of mastering 1b--but, sadly, not Schwarber.

 

Not sure how stating an obvious fact of "if the Sox had better defense, they'd have more wins" becomes wrong? They'd have a few extra wins this month if the defense wasn't a joke.

[moonslav59]

Not sure how stating an obvious fact of "if the Sox had better defense, they'd have more wins" becomes wrong? They'd have a few extra wins this month if the defense wasn't a joke.

 

I think his point was about replacing some of our poor defenders and how that would hurt the offense by maybe more than the gains in defense amounted to.

 

It's a valid point, but my point was more about the team we have now, losing games on defense, and certainly we aare losing more over the past 6 weeks than earlier in the season. That's saying a lot, because we lost more than our share back then, too.

[mvp 78]

If the Sox had better defense, chances are their good their hitting would suck, or have you never heard the expression, "good field, no hit," which is the label pinned on minor leaguers who can't make it to the majors?

 

So if Devers fixed his throwing issues, he'd start to eat s*** at the plate? That's a dumb argument.

[mvp 78]

I think his point was about replacing some of our poor defenders and how that would hurt the offense by maybe more than the gains in defense amounted to.

 

It's a valid point, but my point was more about the team we have now, losing games on defense, and certainly we aare losing more over the past 6 weeks than earlier in the season. That's saying a lot, because we lost more than our share back then, too.

 

I never said "replace these guys with defensive minded players," I just said if this defense was better they'd have more wins.

[moonslav59]

I never said "replace these guys with defensive minded players," I just said if this defense was better they'd have more wins.

 

I get that, and I never said that either, except on the 2022 thread.

 

I'm just saying his point has merit. he wasn't saying we were arguing for replacing players, just that there would be a trade-off had we done something to improve our D.

 

Now, 700 would have us believe it's mostly Cora's fault for allowing the D to get this bad. He implied bad is on the players- really bad is on the manager (for some reason- not the GM).

 

Maybe, Cora could have done something to improve the focus and confidence, but I'm not sure how you can get Renfroe to catch easy pop ups. Do you bench him after a boo-boo. Are we really supposed to believe Cora isn't talking to players and working on fundamentals?

 

Many of our players just plain suck on D or are solid below average defenders. I'm not sure anyone can do much more than has been tried already.

 

Some players we have can still grow, and players like Devers and Dalbec have shown signs of plus D. Hoping for better consistency is about all we can hope for from those two.

 

Bogey, Renfroe and Vaz are what they are.

[moonslav59]

So if Devers fixed his throwing issues, he'd start to eat s*** at the plate? That's a dumb argument.

 

He may have been thinking more about Schwarber playing over Dalbec at 1B or Verdugo in LF.

 

Nobody else is being "replaced," this year.

[mvp 78]

He may have been thinking more about Schwarber playing over Dalbec at 1B or Verdugo in LF.

 

Nobody else is being "replaced," this year.

 

Who said "replaced?"

 

If Devers and Dalbec had worked harder on their defense last offseason and during this season, the team would be better off.

[mvp 78]

I get that, and I never said that either, except on the 2022 thread.

 

I'm just saying his point has merit. he wasn't saying we were arguing for replacing players, just that there would be a trade-off had we done something to improve our D.

 

Now, 700 would have us believe it's mostly Cora's fault for allowing the D to get this bad. He implied bad is on the players- really bad is on the manager (for some reason- not the GM).

 

Maybe, Cora could have done something to improve the focus and confidence, but I'm not sure how you can get Renfroe to catch easy pop ups. Do you bench him after a boo-boo. Are we really supposed to believe Cora isn't talking to players and working on fundamentals?

 

Many of our players just plain suck on D or are solid below average defenders. I'm not sure anyone can do much more than has been tried already.

 

Some players we have can still grow, and players like Devers and Dalbec have shown signs of plus D. Hoping for better consistency is about all we can hope for from those two.

 

Bogey, Renfroe and Vaz are what they are.

 

Doing something to improve defense means practice. We're talking about practice.

[Maxbialystock]

Not sure how stating an obvious fact of "if the Sox had better defense, they'd have more wins" becomes wrong? They'd have a few extra wins this month if the defense wasn't a joke.

 

If the Sox had better defense, chances are the hitting would suck, which is why these John Henry Sox, the most successful in Sox history, recruit hitters first and fielders a distant second.

 

Bogey, one of your favorite targets, has the highest overall WAR on the team.

[oldtimer]

Here we go, starting Schwaber in left, Renfroe in right, Rafie at third, Bogie at short, Dalbec at ist. Clearly the emphasis is on offense over defense. With the players we have, it may be what we need to do this year.

[notin]

The fact remains that the Sox defense has been mediocre the entire season and that what went downhill was the rotation, then the bullpen, and then the hitting.

 

Moreover, none of you has addressed the simple fact that, with this horrendously lousy defense--and there we do agree--the Sox have definitely exceeded expectations this year. And they have exceeded expectations primarily because--wait for it--they have the 3d best team OPS in MLB and the 4th most runs scored.

 

By the way, the team that dazzles me this season is the Rays because they have good pitching and good defense--and also find ways to score runs (most in MLB!!!!!!!) without a bunch of big bats in their lineup. So I am absolutely not opposed to good defense because it's obvious good D makes the Rays better. Yet even they are dependent on a pretty darn good offense to have that 9 game lead.

 

That's not a fact. That's an assumption.

 

We throw metrics and hitting and pitching and can measure when they change. ERA goes up. OPS or whatever goes down. We know something has changed. THe results are now different.

 

But defense seems to live in this netherworld where fans think that because there is no accurate way to track it and measure, it must never change. If a player can play good defense today, then he clearly will tomorrow and every game for the rest of his career. But it is simply flat out not true. Disregarding obvious exceptions, like the Yips, players can simply have defensive slumps. They can have good games, bad games, good stretches, bad stretches. Some of it physical, mental, luck-oriented, and sometimes flat out physical ,like when the wear and team of playing 130 previous games makes an already sore arm throw a little softer.

 

We've seen Devers start out slowly on defense, and gradually get going multiple times. We've all seen other players just have days when they have some flat out issues, like Verdugo dropping a mildly tricky flyball from Nelson Cruz. And then go on to misplay a wall ball from Austin Meadows for 4 innings later. Is Verdugo a bad outfielder? Or did he have a bad game? I've seen him make plenty of catches more difficult than that Cruz flyball.

 

There is no real reason to assume defense just stays the same, just like you don't with hitting and pitching...

[Maxbialystock]

Doing something to improve defense means practice. We're talking about practice.

 

Oh, practice!! Why didn't you say so? Of course that's the problem.

 

Not.

 

Are you nuts? Baseball in its current form requires the longest apprenticeship, which goes back at least to little league if not T ball, of any major sport in the world. They do nothing but practice for 15 or more years before finally getting to MLB.

 

That said, however, this particular Sox team has had to do a lot of shifting around to get the best bats and not necessarily the best gloves in the lineup--thus Dalbec/Schwarber at 1b, JDM/Schwarber in LF, etc. 87 different guys have played 2b--or was it 88? So, while I strenuously disagree about lack or practice, I do not disagree about the lack of continuity in key Sox positions.

[Nick]

If the Sox had better defense, chances are the hitting would suck, which is why these John Henry Sox, the most successful in Sox history, recruit hitters first and fielders a distant second.

 

Bogey, one of your favorite targets, has the highest overall WAR on the team.

 

This...

[Nick]

There is no real reason to assume defense just stays the same, just like you don't with hitting and pitching...

That's very true also.....

Edited September 15, 2021 by Nick

[Maxbialystock]

That's not a fact. That's an assumption.

 

We throw metrics and hitting and pitching and can measure when they change. ERA goes up. OPS or whatever goes down. We know something has changed. THe results are now different.

 

But defense seems to live in this netherworld where fans think that because there is no accurate way to track it and measure, it must never change. If a player can play good defense today, then he clearly will tomorrow and every game for the rest of his career. But it is simply flat out not true. Disregarding obvious exceptions, like the Yips, players can simply have defensive slumps. They can have good games, bad games, good stretches, bad stretches. Some of it physical, mental, luck-oriented, and sometimes flat out physical ,like when the wear and team of playing 130 previous games makes an already sore arm throw a little softer.

 

We've seen Devers start out slowly on defense, and gradually get going multiple times. We've all seen other players just have days when they have some flat out issues, like Verdugo dropping a mildly tricky flyball from Nelson Cruz. And then go on to misplay a wall ball from Austin Meadows for 4 innings later. Is Verdugo a bad outfielder? Or did he have a bad game? I've seen him make plenty of catches more difficult than that Cruz flyball.

 

There is no real reason to assume defense just stays the same, just like you don't with hitting and pitching...

 

Completely agree the defense goes up and down just like hitting and pitching although I would argue that hitting and pitching are much harder to master and more likely to incur slumps.

 

That said, my point remains: this is still the same motley crew the Sox started the season with. Preferred outfield was and is Verdugo, Kike, and Renfroe--with their collective strengths and weaknesses--and the preferred infield is Bogey and Devers on the left side, now mostly Dalbec at 1b, and almost anyone at 2b. I would argue quite strenuously that Dalbec has actually improved at 1b, which I thought was inevitable given he came up as a third baseman.

[notin]

If the Sox had better defense, chances are the hitting would suck, which is why these John Henry Sox, the most successful in Sox history, recruit hitters first and fielders a distant second.

 

Bogey, one of your favorite targets, has the highest overall WAR on the team.

 

That's just silly. It would be true if players could either hit or field but not both.

 

So if the Sox moved Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to 1B, therefore keeping both bats in the lineup, and then replaced Bobby Dalbec (.786) with new shortstop Brandon Crawford (.883), the hitting is now worse? I added .100 OPS points and a Gold Glove caliber defender to the middle infield, but somehow this is worse?

[Maxbialystock]

Here we go, starting Schwaber in left, Renfroe in right, Rafie at third, Bogie at short, Dalbec at ist. Clearly the emphasis is on offense over defense. With the players we have, it may be what we need to do this year.

 

And that's the way it is, Wednesday, September 15, 2021 with the Sox in a 3 way tie for the 2 AL wild card slots.

 

With Seattle starting lefty Gonzalez, Schwarber gets the nod over Verdugo, who has really struggled against lefties this year.

 

As for the defense, right now I think Dalbec is as good at 1b as anyone else on the Sox and certainly better than Schwarber. Actually, I think this is as good a defensive infield as the Sox have had this season, but LF and RF are clearly suspect even though Renfroe has that rifle arm which very, very recently won a game for the Sox by getting 2 outfield assists, one of which was one of the best throws any of us have seen.

[Nick]

Schwarber was acquired at a time when we needed his bat. It would've also helped if he could learn to play 1B.

 

Unfortunately he was injured when he was signed.

 

Then Dalbec goes on an offensive tear.

 

I don't understand why we're blaming Schwarber. He's asked to play a new position for him. If it was that easy then JD should have been working out at 1B.

 

Two outs and a runner on. Yeah I get it we should have been out of the inning. Brasier failed to shut down the offense. Schwarber's defense did not clear the bases. It took two more batters to do that.