A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

I loved the Porcello extension, but I was not for bringing him back.

 

Had we signed him instead of Perez, I wouldn't have complained.

 

I get the value of IP and how it "saves the pen," but I still think 3.2 IP and 0 ERs is as good or better than 6 IP with 3 ERs.

 

I'm not saying call it a "quality start," but I wouldn't mind some new modified version of QS being added to baseball vernacular.

 

Do you consider 6 IP and 3 ER "quality?" That's a 4.50 ERA. Sure, it's decent, but not "quality, in my book.

 

 

At the risk of stating the obvious, there are a lot of X factors involved.

 

If you're low on good relievers that are available, and the manager desperately wants 6 innings out of you, and your team scores 5 or 6 runs, then 6 innings and 3 earned runs is a good job, and 3.2 innings and 0 runs may not be.

[Maxbialystock]

I loved the Porcello extension, but I was not for bringing him back.

 

Had we signed him instead of Perez, I wouldn't have complained.

 

I get the value of IP and how it "saves the pen," but I still think 3.2 IP and 0 ERs is as good or better than 6 IP with 3 ERs.

 

I'm not saying call it a "quality start," but I wouldn't mind some new modified version of QS being added to baseball vernacular.

 

Do you consider 6 IP and 3 ER "quality?" That's a 4.50 ERA. Sure, it's decent, but not "quality, in my book.

 

 

I like 6 and 3 mostly because of the 6, which saves the bullpen. But the game is changing. Managers don't want to overextend their starters arms. More than that is the dreaded, perilous third time through the batting order.

 

I seem to recall that in the 2019 WS one of the managers, whose team lost, said after the game he pulled his pitcher--who was pitching brilliantly--after 6 innings largely because he decided to do so before the game. I thought that manager was imbecilic, but just about everybody else on talksox disagreed.

 

So, if 6 innings is the new complete game or tantamount to it, then a lesser number of innings makes sense as a "quality start."

[moonslav59]

At the risk of stating the obvious, there are a lot of X factors involved.

 

If you're low on good relievers that are available, and the manager desperately wants 6 innings out of you, and your team scores 5 or 6 runs, then 6 innings and 3 earned runs is a good job, and 3.2 innings and 0 runs may not be.

 

I get that, and surely giving 6 decent innings is huge, but giving up 3 ERs vs 0 is not meaningless, either.

 

I will say, 3.2 IP and 0 ERs is always good, unless you left the bases loaded, but even then, it's usually as good as 6 IP and 3 ERs- or about the same.

 

I'm not saying they should make 3.2 and 0 ERs a QS, but I'd like to see the numbers on SP'er who reached one of the new criteria I listed in what % of their starts.

 

To me, it would be more telling than 6 IP/ 3 ER.

 

Certainly 8 IP and 4 ER is as good or better than 6 IP/3ER.

 

5.2 IP and 0 ER is better than 6 and 3 ERs.

[moonslav59]

A look at our 18 games by SP'er:

 

IP ER (H+BB)

5.1 1 (5) Eovaldi

5.0 2 (7) Houck

2.0 6 (9) Richards

5.0 0 (6) Pivetta

5.0 3 (7) Perez

7.0 1 (6) Eovaldi

5.0 3 (7) ERod

5.0 2 (6) Richards

6.0 4 (10) Pivetta (left in too long)

5.0 2 (7) Perez

5.0 2 (5) Eovaldi

5.0 1 (6) ERod

5.0 0 (6) Richards

3.2 2 (8) Pivetta

4.1 3 (6) Houck

3.2 4 (7) Perez

6.1 4 (9) Eovaldi

6.0 2 (4) ERod

 

All but 4 starts saw our starters go 5 or more innings. 15 of 18, our starter made it into the 5th inning or longer. These days, that's pretty good.

 

I'm not saying you have to adopt this, but it's just my opinion:

 

Good Start:

 

4+ IP 0-1 ER

5+ IP 0-2 ER

6+ IP 0-3 ER

8+ IP 0-4 ER

 

Even, if you made it this, it would be better:

4+ IP 0 ER

5+ IP 0-1 ER

6+ IP 0-3 ER

8+ IP 0-4 ER

 

By my first criteria, we had 10 good starts but only 1 "Quality Start."

 

My second criteria gave us 6 good starts.

 

Honestly, have we had only one good start, all year, or is it closer to 6 to 10?

[moonslav59]

Some pitching insights after 18 games (1/9 of the season):

 

OPS Against:

.716 vs SP'ers (4.23 ERA)

.614 Eovaldi

.650 ERod

.742 Houck

.771 Pivetta

.785 Perez

.798 Richards

.592 vs RP'ers (2.78 ERA)

.200 Whitlock (30 PAs agaisnt)

.258 Valdez (28)

.290 Barnes (32)

.400 Bazardo (5)

.643 Andriese (45)

.679 DHern (28)

.698 Sawamura (31)

.760 Ottavino (30)

.868 Brice (19)

1.000 Houck (4)

1.020 Taylor (31)

 

Team numbers:

OPS against:

 

.568 LHB

.730 RHB

 

.670 Home

.655 Away

 

.600 RISP (.507 with 2 outs)

.641 Men On Base

.465 Late & Close (1 of our biggest winter worries was closer and set up men)

.521 High Leverage

.750 first PA vs SP> .655 second> .721 third

[oldtimer]

Just looked up JBJ and Andrew Benintendi's offensive stats. Looks like Bloom's trade of Beni was a good move and not picking up JBJ's FA contract also is working well.

 

Beni -0.2 War

jbj 0.2 WAR

[moonslav59]

Just looked up JBJ and Andrew Benintendi's offensive stats. Looks like Bloom's trade of Beni was a good move and not picking up JBJ's FA contract also is working well.

 

Beni -0.2 War

jbj 0.2 WAR

 

It's early, and Cordero's issues have been injuries, so let's see how that pans out.

 

I loved the trade- still do, and we haven't even gotten the 3 PTBNL's!.

 

I loved JBJ, but that was way too much money.

Edited April 21, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Feel free to add some I missed.

 

0-0 0.00 Craig Kimbrel (8 IP)

0-0 1.29 Jeffrey Springs

1-0 1.59 Kopech

0-0 1.59 Pomeranz

0-1 3.60 Workman (5 IP)

0-1 4.05 Daniel Bard

1-2 4.50 Logan Allen

2-1 4.91 Frankie Montas

0-0 7.50 Andrew Miller

1-0 8.82 Rich Hill

0-0 11.42 Chris Mazza

 

1.583 Pablito (16 PAs)

.914 Betts

.891 Jed Lowrie

.811 Rizzo

.797 Holt

.751 Margot

.747 Moreland

.739 T Shaw

.611 JBJ

.576 Iggy

.515 Beni

.369 Pillar

.317 Dubon

 

No MLB action in 2021:

Eduardo Nunez

Ty Buttrey

 

[Kimmi]

I think folks are going to have to start taking this ballclub seriously as a real contender. They are playing with a lot of confidence and seem to be one of those teams that is greater than the sum of it's parts. Also , the rest of the A.L. does not look especially daunting. Could be a very interesting season.

 

!!!

[Kimmi]

Hey, knock it off. The title of this thread is a realistic view of 2021, which is what you're trying to provide. Wrong! The real purpose of this thread is to discuss stats, acquisitions, etc. [note to moonslav: I hope you can take a joke]

 

But I do like that line "greater than the sum of its parts" because it fits these Sox. Actually, the Sox "parts" are pretty good, but none of them have names that espn or whoever wants to tout. The Yankees and Dodgers are currently cornering that market.

 

The Boston Red Sox are currently in the same niche as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics. Playing good ball, but bereft of names and/or huge salaries. Borrriiinnnggg!

 

I like to call that the Cora Factor.

[Kimmi]

Do you consider 6 IP and 3 ER "quality?" That's a 4.50 ERA. Sure, it's decent, but not "quality, in my book.

 

 

ERA-wise, it doesn't look great, but I consider it a quality start because the pitcher got reasonably deep into the game and kept the team in the game. That's really all I ask for with any start. It'd be nice if the starters could pitch 7 or 8 innings, but those days are mostly gone.

[Kimmi]

Just looked up JBJ and Andrew Benintendi's offensive stats. Looks like Bloom's trade of Beni was a good move and not picking up JBJ's FA contract also is working well.

 

Beni -0.2 War

jbj 0.2 WAR

 

Beni came up to bat in his game last night with 2 outs and the bases loaded. He swung at the first pitch and grounded out weakly to the 2nd baseman. I felt so bad for him.

 

It was probably a good move to trade Beni, but that one of the few moves that I really didn't like when it happened. (In terms of the current team.)

[Nick]

Hey, knock it off. The title of this thread is a realistic view of 2021, which is what you're trying to provide. Wrong! The real purpose of this thread is to discuss stats, acquisitions, etc. [note to moonslav: I hope you can take a joke]

 

But I do like that line "greater than the sum of its parts" because it fits these Sox. Actually, the Sox "parts" are pretty good, but none of them have names that espn or whoever wants to tout. The Yankees and Dodgers are currently cornering that market.

 

The Boston Red Sox are currently in the same niche as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics. Playing good ball, but bereft of names and/or huge salaries. Borrriiinnnggg!

 

Only difference is that our payroll is $205M. (albeit $53M is not playing right now)

[Kimmi]

I read an interesting article today by Matt Collins, talking about the team's unsustainable team BABIP of .342. Xander is at .489, Arroyo is at .441, and JD is at .409. In other words, we've had some luck on our side. The good news is, while the Sox offense will regress, they should still be good enough to be one of the top, if not the top, offense in the AL.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I read an interesting article today by Matt Collins, talking about the team's unsustainable team BABIP of .342. Xander is at .489, Arroyo is at .441, and JD is at .409. In other words, we've had some luck on our side. The good news is, while the Sox offense will regress, they should still be good enough to be one of the top, if not the top, offense in the AL.

 

Regarding luck -- just going off memory here from the first White Sox game; Eaton robs Devers of a home run, then Rafie lines one right at him. Plawecki also lined two to right that Eaton caught. Finally, Bogaerts blooped one in front of Eaton that bounced for a ground-rule double.

 

So despite 4 out of 5 hard hit balls to right, Boston's BABIPTOEATON was only .200.

[Nick]

4.2 IP, 4H, 4 ER, 6 BB.....I hate pitchers that can't throw strikes....

 

I just think the delivery was off a little bit tonight,” Richards said. “I was kind of fighting it the whole night. And then obviously, couldn’t get my release point under control. Just kind of a combination of things. Nothing that can’t be fixed.”

 

You're 8 year veteran. Why don't you fix the damn problem? Sooner the better.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4.2 IP, 4H, 4 ER, 6 BB.....I hate pitchers that can't throw strikes....

 

I just think the delivery was off a little bit tonight,” Richards said. “I was kind of fighting it the whole night. And then obviously, couldn’t get my release point under control. Just kind of a combination of things. Nothing that can’t be fixed.”

 

You're 8 year veteran. Why don't you fix the damn problem? Sooner the better.

 

Sooner the Houck, the better.

[moonslav59]

4.2 IP, 4H, 4 ER, 6 BB.....I hate pitchers that can't throw strikes....

 

I just think the delivery was off a little bit tonight,” Richards said. “I was kind of fighting it the whole night. And then obviously, couldn’t get my release point under control. Just kind of a combination of things. Nothing that can’t be fixed.”

 

You're 8 year veteran. Why don't you fix the damn problem? Sooner the better.

 

If it was easy, we wouldn't have anything but great pitchers. I'm not making excuses, the guy has pretty much sucked, but he hasn't pitched more than 77 innings since 2015! He's only pitched between 35 and 77 IP twice in the last 6 seasons.

 

We knew that when we signed him.

 

I'm not ready to give up on him, but I'm not sure how much longer the leash can be extended.

 

There is always the IL and rehab as a way to get him some work without it costing us wins.

[oldtimer]

I read an interesting article today by Matt Collins, talking about the team's unsustainable team BABIP of .342. Xander is at .489, Arroyo is at .441, and JD is at .409. In other words, we've had some luck on our side. The good news is, while the Sox offense will regress, they should still be good enough to be one of the top, if not the top, offense in the AL.

 

The Sox offense has been good despite Refroe's very slow start.

[Nick]

If it was easy, we wouldn't have anything but great pitchers. I'm not making excuses, the guy has pretty much sucked, but he hasn't pitched more than 77 innings since 2015! He's only pitched between 35 and 77 IP twice in the last 6 seasons.

 

We knew that when we signed him.

 

I'm not ready to give up on him, but I'm not sure how much longer the leash can be extended.

 

There is always the IL and rehab as a way to get him some work without it costing us wins.

 

Just as he said, he's struggling to find the proper slot and release point. I don't care if he gets destroyed, I do care walking guys.

 

If they hit him, there's better chance of getting an out than walking them.

 

Didn't he have entire spring training to work on his command?

[mvp 78]

The Sox have the best record in the AL. They are still winning with Richards' poor control. No reason for him to work on it since they are winning all the other games.

 

Bloom likes that this guy looks all types of wrong this year. In Bloom we trust.

[notin]

The Sox have the best record in the AL. They are still winning with Richards' poor control. No reason for him to work on it since they are winning all the other games.

 

Bloom likes that this guy looks all types of wrong this year. In Bloom we trust.

 

So because some people do not mind an imperfect batting order because the team is winning is the same as a starting pitcher who is not performing?

[moonslav59]

Just as he said, he's struggling to find the proper slot and release point. I don't care if he gets destroyed, I do care walking guys.

 

If they hit him, there's better chance of getting an out than walking them.

 

Didn't he have entire spring training to work on his command?

 

Of course, but maybe that was not enough.

 

Maybe he'll never "find the groove" or "regain his old form."

 

I'm not sure, if he needs to get a long look, right now. Maybe, we should send him to the (phantom) IL and a rehab assignment at the alt site. Maybe we should wait another start or two, so if he does go to rehab, AAA will have started up.

 

I'm not sure what to do or what to expect from Richards. We paid him $10M, and we'll give him a chance to comeback. I guess, for me, the question is when, and how long can we put up with bad starts.

 

Does anyone know how much time a pitcher needs to come back from 6 years of not going more than 77 innings? Is one ST'ing and a handful of starts enough?

 

I'm not sure anyone knows.

 

His first start was horrific: 6 ER in 2 IP, including 3 ERs allowed by RP'ers who came in after he left the bases loaded with no outs.

 

His next start, he went 5 IP with just 2 ERs (back-to-back HRs) and allowed 3 BB.

 

In his third start, he also went 5 IP and only walked 2. He let up no earned runs. He had 4 very nice innings and one where an error and some ground ball hits hurt him.

 

This past start looked horrific, at first, but then he calmed down a little. 4 BBs and 4 hits in 4.2 IP is very bad.

 

All this being said, I think he should get 1-2 more starts before we make any decisions about sending him to rehab- legit or otherwise.

[mvp 78]

So because some people do not mind an imperfect batting order because the team is winning is the same as a starting pitcher who is not performing?

 

What is the difference between an imperfect lineup and an imperfect rotation? In Cora we trust.

[notin]

The Sox offense has been good despite Refroe's very slow start.

 

The Sox team BABIP not only leads the majors, but also leads by a lot. The next best team BABIP is Miami, who is at .320.

 

Yes, they will regress.

[notin]

What is the difference between an imperfect lineup and an imperfect rotation? In Cora we trust.

 

There is a difference between questioning a management decision and questioning a player performance...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is a difference between questioning a management decision and questioning a player performance...

 

Agreed. A manager sticking with an established player off to a slow start is different than sticking with a reclamation project. But like others have posted, the team has too much money invested in the spin-rate master to give up on him too soon. The organization won't move on from Richards this season, but may compromise at some point by sending him to Worcester to fine-tune his comeback.

[notin]

Agreed. A manager sticking with an established player off to a slow start is different than sticking with a reclamation project. But like others have posted, the team has too much money invested in the spin-rate master to give up on him too soon. The organization won't move on from Richards this season, but may compromise at some point by sending him to Worcester to fine-tune his comeback.

 

As bad as Richards has been, it's still only 16 innings pitched. Thy can't just demote him to Worcester without exposing him to waivers, so a move to the bullpen is far more likely.

 

And right now, if anyone is going to Worcester, hopefully it's Taylor...

[moonslav59]

There is a difference between questioning a management decision and questioning a player performance...

 

Yes, but the opinion that Hernandez should not lead off is based on his performance and career OBP.

 

The opinion on Richards staying in the rotation is similar, in nature.

[mvp 78]

The Sox team BABIP not only leads the majors, but also leads by a lot. The next best team BABIP is Miami, who is at .320.

 

Yes, they will regress.

 

Should they maximize the potential of that lineup before they regress? Hell NO!