A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Hugh2]

Dalbec is now sitting at .699.

 

Others not doing as well, but seemingly catching less flack are...

 

.678 Plawecki

.664 Vaz

.660 Kike

.574 Marwin

.478 Santana (actually went up by going 1 for 5, today!)

 

 

 

To be fair Vaz plays good D at a premium position, Marwin is a bench guy, Santana is minor league depth call up, Plawecki is a backup catcher, and Kike is a utility guy getting starters reps, but he does provide plus D at premium position.

 

Dalbec plays a bat first position, he deserves more flack.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec has been hot/cold all year, he’s a streaky guy. He’ll be cold again in a week.

 

He's also in his first full season.

[Hugh2]

He's also in his first full season.

 

I agree that he deserves a long look, and I think he has a higher ceiling than his stat line currently shows. I’m not convinced that he won’t always be a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton. I’m also not convinced that when he goes back into a slump people won’t be demanding a replacement for him again.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that he deserves a long look, and I think he has a higher ceiling than his stat line currently shows. I’m not convinced that he won’t always be a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton. I’m also not convinced that when he goes back into a slump people won’t be demanding a replacement for him again.

 

Can't disagree with any of that.

[oldtimer]

I agree that he deserves a long look, and I think he has a higher ceiling than his stat line currently shows. I’m not convinced that he won’t always be a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton. I’m also not convinced that when he goes back into a slump people won’t be demanding a replacement for him again.

 

He was taking a lot of pitches right over the plate for a long period and he was slumping badly then. I hoped they would coach him to swing at any pitch right over the plate and he started doing that with better results. His hitting has improved to the point where he should not be sent down.

[moonslav59]

It sounds like the Red Sox might employ a 6-man rotation when Houck is ready. Houck is probably 2 weeks away? Cora has said he wants to give the Red Sox starters some extra rest.

 

Let's say the Red Sox go to the six-man rotation and everyone stays healthy when Chris Sale returns later in the year. What do the Red Sox do then? Keep the six man rotation and move Richards to the bullpen?

 

That's a ways away, and the answer may be clearer by then- injury, one pitcher really struggling (ERod?).

 

I doubt we stay with 6 for long. We also have the long all star break coming up, soon..

[Kimmi]

I've see proposals like that for new statistics. My main flaw with OPS is that it is not quantifiable. Like, if one player has an OPS of .700 and one has an OPS of .900, what does that mean, bedsides the .900 is better? Re-arranging the ratio of OBP to SLG does not fix this flaw.

 

Really, one thing that might help is a new statistic calculated by Total Bases/PA. Or better yet, (Total Bases + Walks + HBP)/PA. Sort of like OPS, but without the lack of a common denominator. I think I will call it HE, or Hitter Efficiency.

 

Although I am open to better names

 

wOBA has everything you're looking for.

[Kimmi]

On base and slugging percentages are two stats that have been around for a while. I have no idea whose idea it was to add them together to create OPS. Why would you do that ? The problem is that it gives exactly equal weight to both stats, not to mention the redundancy involved. Another problem with it is that it gives no credit at all to stolen bases.I will agree that it is useful for a quick look at a player's offensive production. But in many cases , a hit is preferable to a walk. And a double is preferable to a single and so forth.

 

As flawed as it might be, OPS correlates very strongly with scoring runs. In that regard, it's a very good stat.

[moonslav59]

That's OPS for you.

 

 

Actually, it's more about smaller sample sizes vs larger sample sizes.

 

We like to think 70 game sample sizes are pretty big, and they certainly are significant, but many players need much longer sample sizes for their true value to be realized in stats. This is not to say .699 or higher is who Dalbec really is. He could drop back down to below .650 and end his career there.

 

I have to admit, as much as I harp about sample sizes, I felt Dalbec needed some time in AAA to work out his issues.

 

It makes me wonder about Cordero and Chavis. Did we send them down, too soon? (Both did very well in AAA- not that this means anything significant.)

 

Santana seems like a different case, but who knows if he will heat up starting in his next game. I have to think he's near a DFA.

[Bellhorn04]

As flawed as it might be, OPS correlates very strongly with scoring runs. In that regard, it's a very good stat.

 

Does it correlate better than wOBA? (Honest question and not a snarky one.)

[Kimmi]

The simple answer is that it's up to the official scorer to call it an error or not.

 

And talk about a rather arbitrary and usually biased decision.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, it's more about smaller sample sizes vs larger sample sizes.

 

Yes and no. OPS is the only stat that makes these kinds of leaps this late in the season.

[Kimmi]

Good Day for me as a fan

 

Sox win, back to 15 games above .500.

 

Dalbec with 3 hits, opposite field home run.

 

Whitlock pitches 2 scoreless innings. I like watching him pitch than anyone else.

 

Yes, good day for Red Sox fans.

 

Perez had a nice bounce back outing as well.

[moonslav59]

To be fair Vaz plays good D at a premium position, Marwin is a bench guy, Santana is minor league depth call up, Plawecki is a backup catcher, and Kike is a utility guy getting starters reps, but he does provide plus D at premium position.

 

Dalbec plays a bat first position, he deserves more flack.

 

We can agree to disagree on Vaz being a plus behind the plate. He does frame pitches very well and has a decent arm. That certainly helps, but I don't think he gets the most out of our staff. I know I might be in the minority on that, but there is ample evidence to support my position.

 

You say Marwin is a bench guy, which he is, but he has more PAs than Dalbec, so he should be dissected as much as Dalbec has.

 

I have expected Dalbec to show better defense, and he has, recently, but he has not been a plus on defense, this year.

 

I'm not saying Dalbec should not have been criticized or even criticized harshly. Hell, I wanted him demoted. My point is more about the others being treated less harshly.

 

I did not mention Kike in this post, because he has been bashed pretty harshly, too. While he has been a high usage utility guy his whole career, I think we signed him thinking he'd get over 550 PAs- more or as much as we expected from Dalbec, this year.

[moonslav59]

wOBA has everything you're looking for.

 

I'm not sure why that stat has not caught on.

[Kimmi]

Does it correlate better than wOBA? (Honest question and not a snarky one.)

 

Surprisingly, OPS actually correlates better to scoring runs than wOBA does. This is in terms of team runs.

 

When looking at individual performance, wOBA is probably the better stat to look at.

 

That said, both stats do a very good job with both team and individual performance.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure why that stat has not caught on.

 

Because when you see wOBA, you think "Stat Nerd Special!"

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure why that stat has not caught on.

 

Probably because of the complexity of its formula. OPS is much easier to understand.

[moonslav59]

Yes and no. OPS is the only stat that makes these kinds of leaps this late in the season.

 

True, in the sense of numerical leaps, but since it is two stats added together, the large jumps are the result of two moderate jumps added together, and if you go by percent improvement like you used during the .200 vs .300 BA players argument, the percent rise of his OPS equaled the percent rise of his OBP and SLG. (They both went up about 25 points or about 8%.)

 

Going by your position on the BA debate, Dalbec's SLG went up 8.8% (35/397), his OBP went up 6.0% (15/252) and his OPS went up 7.7%.

 

It looks like SLG can fluctuate more than OPS using your own methodology..

 

[Nick]

I did not mention Kike in this post, because he has been bashed pretty harshly, too. While he has been a high usage utility guy his whole career, I think we signed him thinking he'd get over 550 PAs- more or as much as we expected from Dalbec, this year. Moon

 

Much of his bashing is Cora's fault for insisting that he bat leadoff. If he's hitting 7th or 8th, I don't think anyone would talk about him. It's Cora's insistence that Kike, Marwin and Santana bat leadoff puts spotlight on the three. I'm just done talking about it. Why not put a .104 hitter in leadoff spot because he has speed and the line-up really doesn't matter?

 

Dalbec was designated #9 hitter. No expectations.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

True, in the sense of numerical leaps, but since it is two stats added together, the large jumps are the result of two moderate jumps added together, and if you go by percent improvement like you used during the .200 vs .300 BA players argument, the percent rise of his OPS equaled the percent rise of his OBP and SLG. (They both went up about 25 points or about 8%.)

 

Going by your position on the BA debate, Dalbec's SLG went up 8.8% (35/397), his OBP went up 6.0% (15/252) and his OPS went up 7.7%.

 

It looks like SLG can fluctuate more than OPS using your own methodology..

 

 

Agree with all that. It's just that OPS has become such a 'go-to' stat.

[Bellhorn04]

I did not mention Kike in this post, because he has been bashed pretty harshly, too. While he has been a high usage utility guy his whole career, I think we signed him thinking he'd get over 550 PAs- more or as much as we expected from Dalbec, this year. Moon

 

Much of his bashing is Cora's fault for insisting that he bat leadoff. If he's hitting 7th or 8th, I don't think anyone would talk about him. It's Cora's insistence that Kike, Marwin and Santana bat leadoff puts spotlight on the three. I'm just done talking about it. Why not put a .104 hitter in leadoff spot because he has speed and the line-up really doesn't matter?

 

Dalbec was designated #9 hitter. No expectations.

 

True, but Dalbec is also playing first base, which is supposed to be an offensive position. So a lot of fans have been screaming for his replacement at various points.

[moonslav59]

I did not mention Kike in this post, because he has been bashed pretty harshly, too. While he has been a high usage utility guy his whole career, I think we signed him thinking he'd get over 550 PAs- more or as much as we expected from Dalbec, this year. Moon

 

Much of his bashing is Cora's fault for insisting that he bat leadoff. If he's hitting 7th or 8th, I don't think anyone would talk about him. It's Cora's insistence that Kike, Marwin and Santana bat leadoff puts spotlight on the three. I'm just done talking about it. Why not put a .104 hitter in leadoff spot because he has speed and the line-up really doesn't matter?

 

Dalbec was designated #9 hitter. No expectations.

 

Then the bashing has been misplaced.

 

I'm a huge Cora fan, but keeping Kike at leadoff was worthy of heavy criticism.

 

Kike is hitting 80 points below his career norm, but most of the league is 20-50 below, so in that context, Kike may not deserve even moderate criticism.

 

I was a big supporter of trying Arroyo at lead off, which Cora did a couple times, but even he has not gotten on base all that much in the last week or two, so it's hard to show that position was a sure winner.

 

I think we all kind of believe Renfroe should stay hitting behind the big 4, so leading him off, or putting Verdugo 1st and Renfroe somewhere else in the top 5, may not have helped much, either. That would also create an even worse 6-9 potion of the order.

 

It's not such an easy call for Cora. Sure, in hindsight, we can scream "Anyone is better than Kike or Santana!" and we'd probably be right, but nobody know who will be hot going forward. Look at the Dalbec example.

 

Here is a look at some chosen sample sizes and OBP...

 

(Note Arroyo's OBP in the last week)

Last 7 days

.316 Vaz (Never heard a sould advocate Vaz leading off)

.308 Marwin (We were all in shock when Cora put him leading off)

.294 Kike (Better than Arroyo by 63 pts)

.231 Arroyo

.231 Santana (equal to Arroyo, surprisingly)

 

How about the week before (Yes! to Arroyo!)

.391 Vaz

.360 Arroyo

.310 Kike

.136 Marwin

.125 Santana

 

The week before last...

.385 Arroyo

.286 Marwin

.278 Vaz

.136 Santana

.125 Kike

 

May 23-29

.333 Cordero

.333 Marwin

.300 Santana

.211 Kike

.143 Arroyo (Cora was supposed to know Arroyo would heat up by this?)

 

May 16-22

.500 Arauz (4 PAs)

.444 Chavis (9 PAs)

.421 Vaz

.381 Kike (Maybe this is why they left him leading off the next week)

.333 Santana

.250 Cordero

.118 Marwin

 

May 9-15 (no winners, this week)

.333 Arauz (6 PA)

.280 Marwin

.250 Chavis

.174 Vaz

.118 Cordero

(Kike & Arroyo on IL)

 

May 2-8

.636 Plawecki

.500 Vaz

.500 Kike (right before IL)

.333 Cordero

.321 Marwin

.143 Arroyo

 

Is there any rhyme or reason to these trends?

 

If we go by how well someone did the previous week or two, we'd be flipping a coin.

 

Nobody jumps out as having a consistently high OBP. Nobody.

 

.071 Vaz

 

 

[moonslav59]

Agree with all that. It's just that OPS has become such a 'go-to' stat.

 

For good reason, and just because a player's OPS goes up 50 points in June does not mean the stat should be diminished.

 

If we had taken OPS/2 to basically make it an average of OBP and SLG, a 25 point jump might not have caught your eye.

[Nick]

No one has explained to me the difference between batting 1-5 (add Renfroe) and batting 2-6. All of you think it's detrimental to move up everyone by one spot.

 

I would venture to guess it matters MORE who you hit behind remain the same. Are you telling me our 2-5 insist on hitting in that order because they all want to bat in that spot?

 

Verdugo did just fine leading off last year. No matter how small, Verdugo will get at bat more leading off. That's a mathematical certainty.

 

Does anyone really think that Verdugo is such a pussy that he's performance will go down by leading off? Oh my gosh, he can't deal with it? That's not in his DNA from what I've seen from him.

 

Maybe, maybe it'll be one or two game difference. It could be the difference between winning the Divison or being the wildcard team.

 

We don't lead the league in runs scored per game so you can't use that argument any longer. I rather have a big hole in 6-9 than 7-1. We lead the AL in ops in 8th spot in the order so relatively speaking to other teams, we don't have a big hole in the #8 spot.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

No one has explained to me the difference between batting 1-5 (add Renfroe) and batting 2-6.

 

I would venture to guess it matters MORE who you hit behind remain the same. Are you telling me our 2-5 insist on hitting in that order because they all want to bat in that spot?

 

Verdugo did just fine leading off last year. No matter how small, Verdugo will get at bat more leading off. That's a mathematical certainty.

 

Maybe, maybe it'll be one or two game difference. It could be the difference between winning the Divison or being the wildcard team.

 

We don't lead the league in runs scored per game so you can't use that argument any longer. I rather have a big hole in 6-9 than 7-1.

 

I do think our top 5 hitters should include the big 4 + Renfroe, but that would seriously shorten the line-up and put more emphasis on how bad the bottom of the order can be. That being said, one can argue that makes little sense, because putting a weak hitter first, still creates a 4 straight batter funk, be it 6 to 9 or 7 to 1.

 

Going by modern analytics, where your 5th best hitter bats 3rd, this seems like the optimal start to our line-up:

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey (our best hitter)

3. Renfroe (5th best)

4. JD v LHP/Devers v RHP

5. Devers v LHP/ JD v RHP

 

I'd try this for the bottom 4:

6. Dalbec

7. Arroyo

8. Vaz

9. Kike

 

[notin]

I think the bottom 4 should be:

 

Arroyo

Dalbec

Hernandez

Vazquez

 

Modern analytics, in what is undoubtedly a conspiracy, ignore the obvious benefits of Alphabetical Order…

[Bellhorn04]

No one has explained to me the difference between batting 1-5 (add Renfroe) and batting 2-6. All of you think it's detrimental to move up everyone by one spot.

 

I would venture to guess it matters MORE who you hit behind remain the same. Are you telling me our 2-5 insist on hitting in that order because they all want to bat in that spot?

 

Verdugo did just fine leading off last year. No matter how small, Verdugo will get at bat more leading off. That's a mathematical certainty.

 

If you put Verdugo at leadoff, who hits second? The only way you can do it is move them all up a spot.

 

The 4 of them are all having career years or close to it. Maybe Cora doesn't want to f*** with that.

 

He's the manager and he has more at stake in this than any of us do.

[a700hitter]

If you put Verdugo at leadoff, who hits second? The only way you can do it is move them all up a spot.

 

The 4 of them are all having career years or close to it. Maybe Cora doesn't want to f*** with that.

 

He's the manager and he has more at stake in this than any of us do.

And he is clear out of ideas since they banned his garbage can scheme.

[Bellhorn04]

And he is clear out of ideas since they banned his garbage can scheme.

 

Oh yeah, he's doing a terrible job, what with us being in first place, after some had us losing 90 games.