A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

And all this is why your favorite folks the stat nerds tried to come up with a number that captures it all, including the stolen bases etc. All that stuff gets factored into WAR.

 

 

There was also a stat called Total Average that’s rarely used but incorporated SB and CS, but it never caught on…

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think it’s fair for sacrifices. But sac flies not being at bats will never make sense to me. And really, the entire name of “sacrifice fly” feels inaccurate. It makes it sound like the hitter is willingly hitting a fly ball deep enough to drive in a runner but not too deep so as to land for a hit. Is the hitter really sacrifice himself here.

 

I’d bet more sac flies are the product of happenstance than attempts to purposefully fly out deep enough to drive in a run.

 

(And why only on a run-scoring play? It is too ponder. Fly out and a runner scores from third? No at bat. Fly out and the runner advances from 2nd to 3b? You’re 0 for 1…

 

Yep, a lot of arbitrary stuff for sure.

[dgalehouse]

There was also a stat called Total Average that’s rarely used but incorporated SB and CS, but it never caught on…

 

They have one for pitchers now called , " Game score. " There is no end in sight.

[Larry Cook]

I don't see it as a penalty. The guy should have not reached base.

 

It counts as an out in OBP and SLG, as it should.

 

So for example. If you are billy Hamilton and your speed down the first base line causes an infielder to rush his throw and you get on base via a bad throw, and no out is recorded,You think it is right that it should not count?

 

I think if you get on base, however you get on base, without creating an out, that should count as an on base event! How can you pick and chose which events qualify and which do not!

[oldtimer]

Jarren Duran. RF: 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Latest from Worcester. Lets give this kid a look and send Santana down.

[Bellhorn04]

So for example. If you are billy Hamilton and your speed down the first base line causes an infielder to rush his throw and you get on base via a bad throw, and no out is recorded,You think it is right that it should not count?

 

I think if you get on base, however you get on base, without creating an out, that should count as an on base event! How can you pick and chose which events qualify and which do not!

 

The simple answer is that it's up to the official scorer to call it an error or not.

[notin]

Jarren Duran. RF: 3-4, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI. Latest from Worcester. Lets give this kid a look and send Santana down.

 

At least he is hitting better on the road now. Road OPS is up to .840. He’s still benefit heavily from Polar Park, but improving…

[Bellhorn04]

We could see Duran this year, after the Olympics, wouldn't surprise me at all.

[Bellhorn04]

They have one for pitchers now called , " Game score. " There is no end in sight.

 

Game Score is a Bill James one. I don't look at it much, but it's not bad. It's simple. It's like Passer Rating in football.

[moonslav59]

So for example. If you are billy Hamilton and your speed down the first base line causes an infielder to rush his throw and you get on base via a bad throw, and no out is recorded,You think it is right that it should not count?

 

I think if you get on base, however you get on base, without creating an out, that should count as an on base event! How can you pick and chose which events qualify and which do not!

 

It's as fair as the official game scorer calling some plays hits and some errors. A line has to be drawn somewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe the "biggest flaw" not "Major" might have been a better choice of wording.

 

If you tinker with weighting BBs and HBPs, you change the meaning of the new stat.

 

I brought up the HBP, because it seems like a stand alone occurrence. Sometimes, it does involve the "skill" of the batter, but usually, it is a mistake by the pitcher.

 

I guess one could call a BB, 4 mistakes, or even a HR a pitching mistake.

 

Here's a simple one:

 

Take Slugging Percentage, and expand it to include walks and HBP. Call it Bases Generated Percentage.

 

Something like this:

 

BB 1 base

HBP 1 base

1B 1.25 bases (or something like that)

2B 2 bases

3B 3 bases

HR 4 bases

 

Then work out the pct. like SLG.

[Nick]

Good Day for me as a fan

 

Sox win, back to 15 games above .500.

 

Dalbec with 3 hits, opposite field home run.

 

Whitlock pitches 2 scoreless innings. I like watching him pitch than anyone else.

[Larry Cook]

Good Day for me as a fan

 

Sox win, back to 15 games above .500.

 

Dalbec with 3 hits, opposite field home run.

 

Whitlock pitches 2 scoreless innings. I like watching him pitch than anyone else.

 

I wonder why Cora did not bring Whitlock back for a third inning, and save sawmura for tomorrow.

[Nick]

I wonder why Cora did not bring Whitlock back for a third inning, and save sawmura for tomorrow.

 

I would love to see him get to 3 innings.....it's BS to claim they're monitoring the 'usage' when he's thrown more innings than any other reliever......

[Nick]

Connor Seabold

 

KANSAS CITY — Red Sox prospect Connor Seabold threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Friday.

 

The righty, who was shut down with right elbow inflammation and minor soreness in early May, began a throwing program in late May.

 

The 25-year-old is one of Boston’s top depth starters despite having not yet made his major league debut.

 

Boston acquired Seabold with righty Nick Pivetta from the Phillies for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree last August.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Bazardo throwing again

 

Reliever Eduard Bazardo has begun a throwing program. He played catch Friday.

 

The WooSox placed Bazardo on the 10-day injured list May 24 with a right lat strain.

 

The 25-year-old has pitched 3 scoreless innings for the Red Sox this year. He was one of the top reliever depth options in the minors before the injury.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Sale nearing live BP

 

Red Sox ace Chris Sale, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, will throw bullpen sessions again Tuesday and Friday.

 

“Then from there, we’ll reassess that,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “Most likely he’ll throw two live BPs the week after that.”

 

Cora said Sale likely will throw his first live BP on July 8.

 

Sale most likely will throw his Tuesday bullpen in Portland with the WooSox on the road.

[Nick]

Boston Red Sox prospect Brayan Bello’s 10-strikeout performance ‘was eye-opening,’ Alex Cora says

 

 

http://https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/06/boston-red-sox-prospect-brayan-bellos-10-strikeout-performance-was-eye-opening-alex-cora-says.html

[moonslav59]

Some good news, Nick. Add Houck to the list and maybe we can get a big infusion of talent without any big trades.

 

Chavis for Santana

 

Houck for Andriese

 

Brasier for Rios

 

Sale/Bazardo/Duran for Workman (and/or Chavis)

 

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is now sitting at .699.

 

Others not doing as well, but seemingly catching less flack are...

 

.678 Plawecki

.664 Vaz

.660 Kike

.574 Marwin

.478 Santana (actually went up by going 1 for 5, today!)

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 3 batters in the top 15 OPS Leaders.

 

10. Bogey .941

13. JD .914

14. Devers .908

 

No other team has even 2. (TOR has 1 & 17 and HOU has 15 & 16)

 

Verdugo ranks 47th at .804, so we have 4 in the top 50.

 

Mookie is 39th at .825 & Moncada is 48th at .811.

 

Out of 142 qualified players on the list, JBJ ranks last at .501.

Kike is 126th at .660.

Vaz is 123rd at .664

Renfroe is 89th at .743

 

No other Sox player qualifies.

 

 

 

[notin]

Game Score is a Bill James one. I don't look at it much, but it's not bad. It's simple. It's like Passer Rating in football.

 

The QB rating in football is the worst stat ever. Ever seen the formula?

[moonslav59]

135 players in the AL have 130+ PAs, this year (9 players x 15 teams).

 

Here's how they break into these chose categories:

 

Top

15 (.884 to 1.102) Sox have 3 in the top 15 (Bogey/JD/Devers)

16-30 (.827-.881) Sox have 0

31-45 (.778-.827) Sox have 1 (Verdugo)

46-60 (.745-.777) Sox have 2 (Renfroe/Arroyo)

61-75 (.684-.703) Sox have 0

76-90 (.632-.702) Sox have 0 (Vaz is #91)

91-105(.649-.676) Sox have 2 (Vaz & Kike)

106-120 (.610-.641) Sox have 0

121-135 (.533-.610) Sox have 1 (Marwin at #130)

 

Pretty amazing how a third of the top 135 batters are under .676.

 

We have exactly our share (3).

[Larry Cook]

Dalbec is now sitting at .699.

 

Others not doing as well, but seemingly catching less flack are...

 

.678 Plawecki

.664 Vaz

.660 Kike

.574 Marwin

.478 Santana (actually went up by going 1 for 5, today!)

 

 

 

Dalbec had shortened up his swing and is not as late on pitches anymore.

 

I think Vazquez is being over used. More rest should get his numbers up,

 

Still do not see what Hang’em Chaim saw in Hernandez. Total head scratcher.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec had shortened up his swing and is not as late on pitches anymore.

 

I think Vazquez is being over used. More rest should get his numbers up,

 

Still do not see what Hang’em Chaim saw in Hernandez. Total head scratcher.

 

Vaz is like second in catcher innings on D. Plawecki is not a bad sub. Yes, rest Vaz more.

 

As for what Bloom saw in Kike, we needed to cover our bases at 2B and CF. Kike can play both. That was one major factor. I think we felt the need at 2B was greater, and as it turned out, almost every free agent choice at 2B has sucked, bigtime. That's no excuse, but other choices cost more and did worse. Of course, there are some that cost less that are doing better, but not many can play CF, too.

 

Kike was a very good player for the Dodgers, you know, the team that won it all. He was 6th on the team in innings played in 2019 and 2020 for the Dodgers. In 2018, the year they faced us in the WS, he was 4 innings away from being 4th on the team in innings played. You can't be a chump and play that much for 3 straight years on a team like LA. (He also has a .758 OPS in 142 playoff PAs.)

 

It's not like the guy has been this bad his whole career. He had a .737 OPS in 4 years with LA and is just 29. We signed him to play 2B, CF and maybe hit between .700-.750.

 

I'm fine with blaming Bloom for choosing Kike, but I'm not sure it was really that much of a head-scratcher. The $7M seemed higher than most expected, and he had shown some decline in OPS over the 2 previous seasons, but at his age, there was no reason to expect continued and steeper decline, and besides, he's not even 25% into his contract, so he may end up proving us all wrong by the end of 2022.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It sounds like the Red Sox might employ a 6-man rotation when Houck is ready. Houck is probably 2 weeks away? Cora has said he wants to give the Red Sox starters some extra rest.

 

Let's say the Red Sox go to the six-man rotation and everyone stays healthy when Chris Sale returns later in the year. What do the Red Sox do then? Keep the six man rotation and move Richards to the bullpen?

[Bellhorn04]

I would love to see him get to 3 innings.....it's BS to claim they're monitoring the 'usage' when he's thrown more innings than any other reliever......

 

Total nonsense, Nick. Look at the number of days he gets between appearances. His usage is completely different from regular relievers who often throw on back to back days or 3 days in a row.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec is now sitting at .699.

 

Others not doing as well, but seemingly catching less flack are...

 

.678 Plawecki

.664 Vaz

.660 Kike

.574 Marwin

.478 Santana (actually went up by going 1 for 5, today!)

 

 

 

Maybe because Bobby raised his OPS 50 points last night. That's OPS for you.

 

I'll say it again, they are doing a great job handling Dalbec and the struggles he's had.

[Nick]

It sounds like the Red Sox might employ a 6-man rotation when Houck is ready. Houck is probably 2 weeks away? Cora has said he wants to give the Red Sox starters some extra rest.

 

Let's say the Red Sox go to the six-man rotation and everyone stays healthy when Chris Sale returns later in the year. What do the Red Sox do then? Keep the six man rotation and move Richards to the bullpen?

 

After a day off on Monday, Sox play 16 straight games. It may not hurt to insert a sixth guy during that stretch. Maybe Houck can be that guy.

[Hugh2]

Dalbec has been hot/cold all year, he’s a streaky guy. He’ll be cold again in a week.

 

Let’s just hope he gets hot when it counts.