A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

I think you mean religion...

 

Here, it’s the same thing.

[notin]

No one has responded to my comment about the Sox losing a year's control if a player is called up TODAY.

 

They can not accrue one year of service time this year any longer. Thus if Duran is called up, he'll be here for 2021,2022,2023,2024,2025,2026 and 2027.

 

Only issue is if they can qualify for four years of arbitration. Now that becomes a money issue and not player control issue.

 

That's how I understand the rule.

 

I don’t think teams worry about the extra year of control for a 24 or 25 year old player as much as a 21 or 22 year old. Losing a player to free agency at 31 is vastly different than losing one to free agency at age 27. The extra year of arbitration is a much, much bigger deal, especially if a team is pushing a budget limit...

[mvp 78]

No one has responded to my comment about the Sox losing a year's control if a player is called up TODAY.

 

They can not accrue one year of service time this year any longer.

 

Only issue is if they can qualify for four years of arbitration. Now that becomes a money issue and not player control issue.

 

That's how I understand the rule.

 

I think they are beyond the super two deadline. They could call up anyone they wanted, but I think they aren't ready to call up Duran or anyone else just yet.

[notin]

I think they are beyond the super two deadline. They could call up anyone they wanted, but I think they aren't ready to call up Duran or anyone else just yet.

 

With Duran, he still has less than 100 PA in AAA and flopped in 350 PA in AA. Those are probably bigger factors than his control and arb...

[mvp 78]

With Duran, he still has less than 100 PA in AAA and flopped in 350 PA in AA. Those are probably bigger factors than his control and arb...

 

Plus defensive questions. He has stuff to work on before being promoted. He's not at Mookie/Devers/Beni levels of tearing through the minors yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Plus defensive questions. He has stuff to work on before being promoted. He's not at Mookie/Devers/Beni levels of tearing through the minors yet.

 

Someone promoted Franchy's defensive questions for years. Hopefully, Duran can learn how to use his speed to flag down deep drives like above-average centerfielders. I know some metrics like Kike in the outfield, but the eyeballs show he's good at coming in, but not so much at going back; that ball he and Hunter watched fall between them last night was disturbing.

[moonslav59]

Since this is the Realistic thread, I hope the last two weeks of watching the Astros bash finally shows some fans how overblown their "scandal" may have been overall. Houston's top batters from their pennant years are still stars, including Altuve, Bregman and Correa. Springer did fine last year. Yes, their current attack also features guys that weren't around -- Brantley, Alvarez, Tucker. But by now, it's looking like those who benefitted most by the trash cans were more marginal players like Reddick and Marwin...

 

Fans need to let it go, especially in convicted Boston. New York fans know their guys aren't perfect either; they're just bitter because they never won it all in the "Paying Attention to Details Era".

 

The Astros only look great against us. Their pen is a serious weakness. They are surely a very good team, but they are mortal- like us and every AL contender.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to believe Cora's opinion counts more than you guys.

 

(Sorry, I can't resist sometimes.)

 

I totally agree, and that's why I once called him the greatest Sox manager of all time.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think teams worry about the extra year of control for a 24 or 25 year old player as much as a 21 or 22 year old. Losing a player to free agency at 31 is vastly different than losing one to free agency at age 27. The extra year of arbitration is a much, much bigger deal, especially if a team is pushing a budget limit...

 

It still matters enough. It's not like most good players suck at 30 or 31.

[Bellhorn04]

I totally agree, and that's why I once called him the greatest Sox manager of all time.

 

You talk the talk, but I walk the walk, because I don't question his decisions.

 

(Just having some fun here.)

[moonslav59]

With Duran, he still has less than 100 PA in AAA and flopped in 350 PA in AA. Those are probably bigger factors than his control and arb...

 

Too many people believe what you've done in your last 50-100 PAs is the best predictor of what is to come.

 

Sure, it matters, but context is needed in big decisions like this.

 

Duran is learning a new position.

He changed his batting approach very recently.

 

Either one of these alone could be reason enough not to promote a 24 year old prospect. If the choice is close, the extra arb year might have been the deciding factor. Now, that that is gone, we'll see how long it takes.

 

I still view Chavis, Wilson, a pitcher and maybe even another look at Cordero as possible moves we make before calling up Duran.

 

I doubt Casas is even being talked about, in terms of a mid summer promotion.

 

Again, I'm not against calling Duran up. The day it happens, I'll be excited as anyone here.

 

It will mean he's likely as ready as he should be.

[notin]

It still matters enough. It's not like most good players suck at 30 or 31.

 

No, but they are cheaper free agents at 31 than at 27...

[notin]

Too many people believe what you've done in your last 50-100 PAs is the best predictor of what is to come.

 

Sure, it matters, but context is needed in big decisions like this.

 

Duran is learning a new position.

He changed his batting approach very recently.

 

Either one of these alone could be reason enough not to promote a 24 year old prospect. If the choice is close, the extra arb year might have been the deciding factor. Now, that that is gone, we'll see how long it takes.

 

I still view Chavis, Wilson, a pitcher and maybe even another look at Cordero as possible moves we make before calling up Duran.

 

I doubt Casas is even being talked about, in terms of a mid summer promotion.

 

Again, I'm not against calling Duran up. The day it happens, I'll be excited as anyone here.

 

It will mean he's likely as ready as he should be.

 

 

Maybe Duran’s path to MLB would have been faster had he stayed at 2b...

[mvp 78]

Maybe Duran’s path to MLB would have been faster had he stayed at 2b...

 

He'd be blocked until 2022 due to Pedroia's long term under market deal.

[moonslav59]

You talk the talk, but I walk the walk, because I don't question his decisions.

 

(Just having some fun here.)

 

I get where you are coming from, and we've touched on this a couple times already.

 

I don't see stating my differing opinions as bashing Cora (or Bloom). Yes, it is calling into question certain issues, but I think I do it in a constructive way. Some of my suggestions and comments end up happening shortly afterwards, so I don't think some of my ideas are all that different than Cora's- like trying Arroyo at lead-off.

 

I'm thrilled we have Cora and Bloom as our leaders. They are the best, in my opinion.

 

I knw I am walking a thin line, when I criticize other posters for being so negative, as one could view many of my comments as negative or critical.

 

To me, this board is about expressing your opinions. I don't think having a different opinion diminishes my view on Sox management. I'm not sure if you agree with everything or not, since you don't "question" him/them. You don't have to be specific, but do you agree with everything Cora does? (Past managers, too?)

 

I still think, when all is said and done, Cora will be viewed as the greatest Sox manager of all time. No disrespect to Tito. He was a great one, too, but Cora is my guy.

 

No manager is perfect, and they'd admit that, too.

[notin]

You talk the talk, but I walk the walk, because I don't question his decisions.

 

(Just having some fun here.)

 

 

Hey, I’m still on board with Kike leading off. Although my logic probably differs from most people’s...

[moonslav59]

No, but they are cheaper free agents at 31 than at 27...

 

No doubt, but a 30 to 31 year old good player has higher team value in an arb year than as a FA.

 

Look what people pay 30 and older players as free agents. Surely, if Duran ends up being a very good player, having him another year would be a good thing. Maybe valuable enough to tip the balance of the choice made on when to call up.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Duran’s path to MLB would have been faster had he stayed at 2b...

 

Maybe.

 

I guess they moved him for aa reason.

[notin]

No doubt, but a 30 to 31 year old good player has higher team value in an arb year than as a FA.

 

Look what people pay 30 and older players as free agents. Surely, if Duran ends up being a very good player, having him another year would be a good thing. Maybe valuable enough to tip the balance of the choice made on when to call up.

 

There is a delicate balance.

 

For a lot of players, arb money in their final year is higher than the AAV of free agency, especially if they are over 30. This benefits a team in terms of years (since it’s one) but for some teams it can force decisions to be made.

 

 

While it’s not likely a 4th arb year could prevent the Sox from, say, extending Devers, it’s not a ridiculous postulate that it might limit them to signing a lesser relief pitcher or closer. Most teams prefer not to hamstring themselves as opposed to more financial flexibility. Even Boston...

[notin]

Maybe.

 

I guess they moved him for aa reason.

 

One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...

[moonslav59]

There is a delicate balance.

 

For a lot of players, arb money in their final year is higher than the AAV of free agency, especially if they are over 30. This benefits a team in terms of years (since it’s one) but for some teams it can force decisions to be made.

 

 

While it’s not likely a 4th arb year could prevent the Sox from, say, extending Devers, it’s not a ridiculous postulate that it might limit them to signing a lesser relief pitcher or closer. Most teams prefer not to hamstring themselves as opposed to more financial flexibility. Even Boston...

 

You don't have to go to arb with a player.

 

I think a player who's value is greater as an arb player than a FA is usually let go or traded for peanuts, and it's a very rare thing, too.

 

Look at the JBJ case. Many felt giving him that last arb was overpaying him, myself included, but who knows what he'd have gotten as a FA, especially if it was a 1 year deal.

 

I think we were mostly all surprised at what he got as a FA a year older than his last arb year, here.

[moonslav59]

One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...

 

I'm not so sure. Had keeping him at 2B speeded up his arrival to the bigs by a year, the timing would be just about perfect.

[mvp 78]

One of the reasons might rhyme with Justin Pedroia...

 

He was a 7th round pick with lots of speed. His defense in the IF wasn't that great to begin with. I think they probably figured that they could utilize his speed more in the OF.

[mvp 78]

Also, it's not like the Sox MiLB talent level was stocked with middle infield guys when they moved him to the OF. I think they moved him based on his profile, not what the rest of the system looked like. At that point, the OF looked like the surest bet for the future (Mookie/JBJ/Beni).

[moonslav59]

April and May Sox OPS

 

April >> May

1.175 JD .801

.958 Devers .933

.915 Bogey .961

.862 Verdugo .755

.763 Arroyo .513

.671 Kike .728

.638 Vaz .678

.619 Dalbec .672

.589 Marwin .537

.485 Renfroe .938

.452 Cordero .558

 

Is there anything about the April and May numbers that point to the idea that what you did recently is a good indicator of what you will do in the future? (Like from one month to the next?

 

Only one player stayed within 25 points of his April OPS (Devers) and only 2 players stayed within 40 points (Devers & Vaz).

 

6 of the 11 stayed within 100 points-so basically 50-50.

 

3 of the 11 saw a change or 250 or more points:

 

Renfroe+453

Arroyo +250

JD -.374

Edited June 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here is a look at some AL contender's line-up balance and make-up based on batters with 100 or more PAs.

 

Batters over .900+, 800-899, 700-799, 600-699, 500-599, under 500

 

11 BOS 2-2-2-3-2-0

12 TBR 0-3-2-5-2-0

11 NYY 1-1-4-5-0-0

10 CWS 0-5-3-1-1-0

11 OAK 1-2-1-5-1-0

10 HOU 1-6-1-1-1-0

 

We have the most over .900 (2), but HOU (7) and CWS (5) have more than our 4 over .800.

 

How about pitchers with 90+ PAs against and OPS Against:

 

<.499>

 

11 BOS: 1-1-3-4-1-1

11 TBR: 0-3-4-4-0-0

11 NYY: 0-5-4-2-0-0

11 CWS: 0-5-3-1-2-0

11 OAK: 1-2-4-2-2-0

11 HOU: 0-2-7-2-0-0

 

 

Edited June 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

And who do the Sox turn to if Duran doesn’t dazzle in his first 102 plate appearances?

 

They continue to look. Is it better to try to find a player who can help or stay with one who isn't getting it done? My answer is bring alternatives on for a try. I do think once the Sox has given a kid a chance to play in the Olympics, they won't then withdraw him.

[Nick]

I'll take seventh year of service of a player, albeit possibility for higher compensation than to have six years and having to offer another 5 year deal for his past performance.

 

You can always trade him the summer of year 6. There will be takers knowing the guy is on the hook for another year.

 

This board now wants nothing to do with seventh year team control due to 4 arbitrations? Unreal.

[moonslav59]

I'll take seventh year of service of a player, albeit possibility for higher compensation than to have six years and having to offer another 5 year deal for his past performance.

 

You can always trade him the summer of year 6. There will be takers knowing the guy is on the hook for another year.

 

This board now wants nothing to do with seventh year team control due to 4 arbitrations? Unreal.

 

I'm not hearing the board saying they don't want the extra year.

 

I hear one guy saying maybe it's not worth as much as some of us think it is.

[moonslav59]

They continue to look. Is it better to try to find a player who can help or stay with one who isn't getting it done? My answer is bring alternatives on for a try. I do think once the Sox has given a kid a chance to play in the Olympics, they won't then withdraw him.

 

How long do you go before you determine a player cannot turn things around?

 

We stuck with Renfroe and Arroyo for about as long as Dalbec and Cordero.

 

Why are you so certain a player's last few weeks or months play is the best predictor of what is to come?

 

The evidence does not support that theory.

 

Look, I'm all for giving Dalbec a demotion to work things out, but it's not a no brainer, and the guy we should call up- Chavis- has about the same chance as Dalbec and others of doing okay going forward.