A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

Boston weather

 

Looks like 60% chance of rain at 7 pm and gets worse. Probably will be postponed. I can't handle another night without Sox baseball. I don't need back to back days off.

[Bellhorn04]

Boston weather

 

Looks like 60% chance of rain at 7 pm and gets worse. Probably will be postponed. I can't handle another night without Sox baseball. I don't need back to back days off.

 

Yeah, the North Atlantic Ocean is a pain in the ass.

 

Here in Halifax we generally get Boston's weather the next day, only colder.

[Nick]

Yeah, the North Atlantic Ocean is a pain in the ass.

 

Here in Halifax we generally get Boston's weather the next day, only colder.

 

Crap....looks like rain for 3 straight days...not good with 100% capacity allowed this weekend...bummer for the fans...

[mvp 78]

Looks like I'll be busy collecting Korok seeds this weekend instead. Oh well.

[oldtimer]

This is all true. Where some of us seem to run into disagreement on is how long of a sample size do you give/need?

 

I tend to want longer sample sizes than most here, but I'm not claiming to know more than anyone else. I may disagree with team management on some decisions or choices, but I trust they know more than I do.

 

For a player like Cordero, who has "all the tools" and has shown some success is very scattered and small samples sizes over several year, couples with the fact that last season was one giant cluster-you-know-what, probably deserved an extra long look and chance to find a groove or show what he can do. As much as it hurt the team, with AAA not playing in April, he was kind of locked into the 26 man roster. I still think he can work his way back to the big club over the length of the team control we have on him. What he does in the minors may determine his ability to stay on the 40 man roster once the 5-6 rule 5 players are added in December.

 

Chavis has some decent numbers in the bigs, spread out over 3 seasons, despite the high K rate and seemingly an inability to fix the holes in his swing. Once can argue his career numbers are fueled by a couple hot streaks in his career, but that can be said about a lot of players with samples sizes under 650. I was hoping he'd get an extra long look this year- not really because I think he'll be great or even good, but mostly so we can determine if he deserves a roster spot going forward. I hate holding onto AAAA type players, always wondering if they coulda been more, while taking up a roster space of someone more promising. If possible, find out what they got and move on. The 2021 season seemed perfect for this idea, until we started off winnings so much.

 

Dalbec is a hard cookie to evaluate. His high OBP and power in the minors is not something you see often in a guy who K's 25-30% of the time. High OBP does not always translate to the bigs, and it hasn't really all that much, so far with Dalbec, but he doesn't even have 250 ML PAs, yet, and those 237 PAs are spread over 2 seasons. To me, he deserves a very long look, but with a team looking to make the playoffs, that is not always easy to do, when the guy is struggling vs RHPs so much. If you straight platoon him, now, he'll never be able to work on his swing vs righties- something he needs to do to become a solid player, and something we need to know if he can learn sooner rather than later. The guy is older than Verdugo and Devers. I'm not sure more time in the minors will tell us anything more than what we already know.

 

I'd have no problem with the Sox letting all these three go, if I felt they all had a legitimate chance to prove they belong. I don't think any have, yet.

 

I also don't think any are playing well enough, right now, to be FT players on a playoff team. Dalbec is vs LHPs, and I thought Chavis was looking okay in a very small sample size, but Santana looks better and Kike & Arroyo returned, so that was that.

 

I hope Chavis and Cordero do well in AAA, and Dalbec makes the adjustments needed to stick around, but the more these guys play, the more we'll know.

 

I don't see Casas getting a look until September, so Dalbec may have as much as 3 months to make adjustments, albeit platooned. I don't think Okaimey gets a look.

[moonslav59]

I don't see Casas getting a look until September, so Dalbec may have as much as 3 months to make adjustments, albeit platooned. I don't think Okaimey gets a look.

 

Santana may platoon with Dalbec, starting soon or starting just vs some tough righties. Plus, we want Renfroe on the bench vs righties, too so Santana might do kind of a split platoon with Dalbec & Renfroe.

 

Chavis should be next in line, until September.

 

Ockimey is a very long shot, and just because his numbers vs righties are very good.

[oldtimer]

Santana may platoon with Dalbec, starting soon or starting just vs some tough righties. Plus, we want Renfroe on the bench vs righties, too so Santana might do kind of a split platoon with Dalbec & Renfroe.

 

Chavis should be next in line, until September.

 

Ockimey is a very long shot, and just because his numbers vs righties are very good.

 

Nobody has been talking about Jeter Downs but he is still very high on the prospect list. He doesn't really project at 1st or the outfield but might make it up if Gonzales and/or Arroyo struggle. Kike can then play the outfield. If Jeter picks up his hitting, the Betts trade looks that much better

[moonslav59]

Nobody has been talking about Jeter Downs but he is still very high on the prospect list. He doesn't really project at 1st or the outfield but might make it up if Gonzales and/or Arroyo struggle. Kike can then play the outfield. If Jeter picks up his hitting, the Betts trade looks that much better

 

Even though Casas is still in AA, I think he might "get the call" before Downs, but who knows?

[Nick]

Even though Casas is still in AA, I think he might "get the call" before Downs, but who knows?

 

You know I maybe a 6 handicapper at local municipal golf playing white tees but put me on a country club course with water and sand and I'm shooting in low 90's. My golf game doesn't travel.

 

Casas maybe playing in AA, but my guess is his skill set will travel all the way to major leagues. You've all seen it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nobody has been talking about Jeter Downs but he is still very high on the prospect list. He doesn't really project at 1st or the outfield but might make it up if Gonzales and/or Arroyo struggle. Kike can then play the outfield. If Jeter picks up his hitting, the Betts trade looks that much better

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Downs is traded for a big league need if the Sox hang in there and decide to go for it. They've been playing him regularly at shortstop since Spring Training, which doesn't look like a fast-track way to groom what some people thought was the second-baseman of the future (or second half of this season, if they flop). Maybe he's being showcased at short.

 

Keeping a top prospect at a position blocked by a franchise face like X doesn't make sense, either... unless they fear Bogie will opt out. Ugh -- imagine a guy wearing #2 in homage to his boyhood idol (who wore pinstripes), and then being replaced by Jeter.

[Nick]

I wouldn't be surprised if Downs is traded for a big league need if the Sox hang in there and decide to go for it. They've been playing him regularly at shortstop since Spring Training, which doesn't look like a fast-track way to groom what some people thought was the second-baseman of the future (or second half of this season, if they flop). Maybe he's being showcased at short.

 

Keeping a top prospect at a position blocked by a franchise face like X doesn't make sense, either... unless they fear Bogie will opt out. Ugh -- imagine a guy wearing #2 in homage to his boyhood idol (who wore pinstripes), and then being replaced by Jeter.

 

I doubt Bloom would trade someone like Downs. Not in his DNA. I can see him exchanging one young player for another as you said if the player is 'blocked'.

[Nick]

Just checking out radar.....it's solid rain until 4:30 am (there's no break in weather), rain getting stronger around 1:30 am....I say 4:30am only because the radar only projects out 6 hours.

 

Do they want ME to make the decision? They don't have to pay me either.

 

PS. checking out the hourly projection, 100% rain until 8 am, then drops to 97%, steadily drops to 40% by 4 pm. Game 2.

Edited May 29, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Grossman of Tigers with 2 out, 2 run walk off homer in bottom of tenth to defeat the Yankees 3-2. Yankees go 0-10 with RISP, scoring only 2 runs on 11 hits.. G Cole only goes 6 innings due to throwing 103 pitches. Good day for the Sox.

 

Sox game called, 5-2 win.

Edited May 29, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

I doubt Bloom would trade someone like Downs. Not in his DNA. I can see him exchanging one young player for another as you said if the player is 'blocked'.

 

Or if he just likes the other younger player better, like when he dealt two time BA Top 100 OF Jesus Sanchez (plus Ryne Stanek) to the Marlins for RHPs Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards...

[illinoisredsox]

Just checking out radar.....it's solid rain until 4:30 am (there's no break in weather), rain getting stronger around 1:30 am....I say 4:30am only because the radar only projects out 6 hours.

 

Do they want ME to make the decision? They don't have to pay me either.

 

PS. checking out the hourly projection, 100% rain until 8 am, then drops to 97%, steadily drops to 40% by 4 pm. Game 2.

 

I pretty sure that the umps are required to wait a certain amount of time before they can call it: I want to say it's 75 minutes but don't quote me on that.

[moonslav59]

There might be a prospect or two, especially if not a Bloom pick up, that Bloom may not rate as highly as another GM.

 

That’s all it takes for a swap of young for young.

 

Now, Downs was acquired by Bloom, so it’s doubtful he does not like him a lot, but GMs trade players and prospects the like a lot quite often. Trading someone does not mean you gave up on the guy or think badly of him.

[notin]

There might be a prospect or two, especially if not a Bloom pick up, that Bloom may not rate as highly as another GM.

 

That’s all it takes for a swap of young for young.

 

Now, Downs was acquired by Bloom, so it’s doubtful he does not like him a lot, but GMs trade players and prospects the like a lot quite often. Trading someone does not mean you gave up on the guy or think badly of him.

 

I always assumed he’d trade Downs and/Wong, as they were not his first choices in that trade...

[Elktonnick]

I pretty sure that the umps are required to wait a certain amount of time before they can call it: I want to say it's 75 minutes but don't quote me on that.

 

For future reference, it is 30 minutes.

[Nick]

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/05/27/sports/how-red-sox-reliever-garrett-whitlock-is-making-necessary-adjustments-hitters/

 

Very good article on Whitlock...working on his slider...

 

For Whitlock, while his changeup-sinker-four-seamer mix is impressive, in order for him to take that next leap they know he will need another pitch. Despite working at different speeds, his changeup and sinker have the same arm-side run. As a result, big league hitters can sit on a location but still adjust to velocity.

 

So, Whitlock has been working on a slider, just to give hitters a different look on a pitch that, ideally, runs in an opposite direction. In addition to direction, Whitlock is trying to adjust the speed of his slider.

 

This is type of information I wish more writers would write about....

[oldtimer]

Looks like a very rainy weekend at Fenway.

[Bellhorn04]

I always assumed he’d trade Downs and/Wong, as they were not his first choices in that trade...

 

But he might have been high on Downs in spite of that.

[Elktonnick]

Interesting article in the Athletic about the Red Sox and their apparent vaccine hesitancy. Doesn't look like Boston will achieve 85 percent anytime soon if ever. Very disturbing.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting article in the Athletic about the Red Sox and their apparent vaccine hesitancy. Doesn't look like Boston will achieve 85 percent anytime soon if ever. Very disturbing.

 

It's puzzling. 16 teams have reached the threshold and 3 more will reach it in 2 weeks.

 

So the Red Sox are one of 11 teams who will still be short.

[moonslav59]

I always assumed he’d trade Downs and/Wong, as they were not his first choices in that trade...

 

It’s not like second choices are not held in high esteem all the time.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But he might have been high on Downs in spite of that.

 

You mean up on Downs. It's like the effects of alcohol, a depressant, which slows body/brain controls and filters, causing the user to initially appear "rowdy"... until, the drinker crashes, mentally and physically (hopefully not operating machinery).

 

Smart baseball men sell high. But I just don't understand why the Red Sox, with an obvious need for a full-time starter at second base -- maybe even this year, in a possible pennant race -- aren't playing their Number Two organizational prospect (one ahead of Duran on SoxProspects.com) there now in Triple A.

[Bellhorn04]

You mean up on Downs. It's like the effects of alcohol, a depressant, which slows body/brain controls and filters, causing the user to initially appear "rowdy"... until, the drinker crashes, mentally and physically (hopefully not operating machinery).

 

Smart baseball men sell high. But I just don't understand why the Red Sox, with an obvious need for a full-time starter at second base -- maybe even this year, in a possible pennant race -- aren't playing their Number Two organizational prospect (one ahead of Duran on SoxProspects.com) there now in Triple A.

 

I'm sure they have their reasons.

[notin]

I'm sure they have their reasons.

 

Many of which are probably related to Downs and Duran playing less one of baseball in the past 21 months...

[Nick]

American League OPS median is Ray's .718. Sox lead the way with .767.

 

JD leads DH with .976. Only two others are above .900

 

Xander leads shortstops with .973. What's amazing is 2nd place Bichette has ops of .801, pretty big drop from the leader.

 

Devers leads 3B with .939, next 4 are all in the .800's.

 

Verdugo is 10th with .824: taking into account that 3 outfielders on the field at the same time, you can say that he's in top 3 for one of outfield positions.

 

It will be interesting to watch if they can keep this up, I think we'll see a slight drop off as competition gets better.

 

Arroyo at 2B ranks 13th, .673 with those with 70 bats or more (Arroyo has 73 AB). Interesting that Chavis has an ops of .758 albeit, a small sample size, 33 at bats.

 

Dalbec is ranked 15th at 1B .640. He's headed for platooning unless he heats up vs right handers.

 

Vaz is ranked 9th, .651 for those with 70 at bats or more. He can do better.

 

Kike and Refroe are 31st and 35th (70 at bats minimum) in the outfield, .728 and .689....I'd say they're both just outside of top 10, combining the outfield positions. (only 3 players on the list are worse than Cordero by the way).

 

Kike's .728 ops would rank him 6th among 2B in AL. Wouldn't it be a no brainer to play Kike at 2B and find another outfielder? I need a name. Also maybe, maybe, we should have worked in Chavis in left field. His .758 works in left field and at 1B (yep, I'm a big Dalbec fan)

 

We're trying to lengthen our line up, no? Lack of production from bottom will become more noticeable once the top cools off.

 

We lead the league in runs scored so why worry, right?

Edited May 29, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

We lead the league in runs scored so why worry, right?

 

We lead MLB in runs per game now.

 

So whatever issues we have on offense, other teams have even bigger issues.

 

I'm much more concerned about maintaining our pitching.

[notin]

American League OPS median is Ray's .718. Sox lead the way with .767.

 

JD leads DH with .976. Only two others are above .900

 

Xander leads shortstops with .973. What's amazing is 2nd place Bichette has ops of .801, pretty big drop from the leader.

 

Devers leads 3B with .939, next 4 are all in the .800's.

 

Verdugo is 10th with .824: taking into account that 3 outfielders on the field at the same time, you can say that he's in top 3 for one of outfield positions.

 

It will be interesting to watch if they can keep this up, I think we'll see a slight drop off as competition gets better.

 

Arroyo at 2B ranks 13th, .673 with those with 70 bats or more (Arroyo has 73 AB). Interesting that Chavis has an ops of .758 albeit, a small sample size, 33 at bats.

 

Dalbec is ranked 15th at 1B .640. He's headed for platooning unless he heats up vs right handers.

 

Vaz is ranked 9th, .651 for those with 70 at bats or more. He can do better.

 

Kike and Refroe are 31st and 35th (70 at bats minimum) in the outfield, .728 and .689....I'd say they're both just outside of top 10, combining the outfield positions. (only 3 players on the list are worse than Cordero by the way).

 

Kike's .728 ops would rank him 6th among 2B in AL. Wouldn't it be a no brainer to play Kike at 2B and find another outfielder? I need a name. Also maybe, maybe, we should have worked in Chavis in left field. His .758 works in left field and at 1B (yep, I'm a big Dalbec fan)

 

We're trying to lengthen our line up, no? Lack of production from bottom will become more noticeable once the top cools off.

 

We lead the league in runs scored so why worry, right?

 

Starling Marte

Kole Calhoun

Corey Dickerson

Nick Castellanos

 

 

... are all likely to be available this July, along with a few others as more teams fall out of contention. Michael Conforto? Kyle Schwarber?