A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't say Duran has "legendary power" either.

 

He had 3 HRs in 3 seasons of college and 8 HRs in 880 PAs before this year. (15 in 957 career)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I wouldn't say Duran has "legendary power" either.

 

He had 3 HRs in 3 seasons of college and 8 HRs in 880 PAs before this year. (15 in 957 career)

 

I was just referring to his last two HR distances -- at supposedly 480' and 475'. Ted Williams' mythical red seat is 502' from the plate; remember when a frustrated Ortiz couldn't come close to reaching it in BP using an aluminum bat? Does that mean that minor leaguer Jarren Duran can already hit them as far as primetime Papi?

[Bellhorn04]

I was just referring to his last two HR distances -- at supposedly 480' and 475'. Ted Williams' mythical red seat is 502' from the plate; remember when a frustrated Ortiz couldn't come close to reaching it in BP using an aluminum bat? Does that mean that minor leaguer Jarren Duran can already hit them as far as primetime Papi?

 

Just reading about that home run by Williams. Because the seat is about 30 feet above field level, it has been determined that the true distance was 530 feet.

 

Also, the baseballs being used can make a big difference.

[oldtimer]

I wouldn't say Duran has "legendary power" either.

 

He had 3 HRs in 3 seasons of college and 8 HRs in 880 PAs before this year. (15 in 957 career)

 

You don't give him much credit for the improvements he has made. He has gained a lot of strength and changed his swing. Seven home runs this season is pretty impressive.

[moonslav59]

You don't give him much credit for the improvements he has made. He has gained a lot of strength and changed his swing. Seven home runs this season is pretty impressive.

 

I'm very optimistic about Duran, but I never get all gah gah over any 2 week sample size, even in the bigs.

 

I do think he has power and will in the majors, but 7 HRs in AAA is not "legendary" in any way whatsoever.

[moonslav59]

Geez, you take 3 out of 4 and lose ground to two contenders.

 

AL Leaders

- BOS

- TBR

.5 NYY

.5 OAK

1.5 CWS

2.5 HOU

3.0 CLE

4.5 TOR

5.5 KCR

 

The NL is starting to shake out as expected...

 

- SDP

1.0 LAD

1.0 SFG

2.5 STL

5.0 NYM

5.5 Cubs

6.0 MIL

6.5 PHI

 

The top 3 teams in each league all come from just one division: ALE & NLW.

 

[moonslav59]

A lot can change between now and whenever, but here is my call (not what I think Bloom/Cora will do) on future roster moves, at this point in time:

 

Arroyo comes up: Cordero demoted (Core/Bloom: maybe Chavis)

 

Brasier come up: Chavis demoted

 

Sale come up: I'll guess Valdez or Taylor (Andriese has no options.)

 

[Larry Cook]

Who goes when arroyo is ready to be activated? Chavis?

[moonslav59]

Who goes when arroyo is ready to be activated? Chavis?

 

I have said I prefer Cordero.

 

Santana can play OF, so we don't need Cordero vs RHPs.

[moonslav59]

Let's say Arroyo for Cordero:

 

vs RHP

1. Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Devers 3B

6. Santana LF

7. Vaz C

8. Arroyo 2B

9. Dalbec/Marwin/Chavis 1B

 

vs LHP

1. Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo LF

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Devers 3B

6. Renfroe RF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vaz C

9. Santana/Arroyo/Marwin/Chavis 2B

 

[oldtimer]

I have said I Cordero.

 

Santana can play OF, so we don't need Cordero vs RHPs.

 

Cordero needs regular work so he can possibly develop into more of a consistent offensive threat. AAA may be the best place for that to occur.

 

Chavis has had more chances with the Sox and still has major problems with the high fastball.

 

Dalbec appears totally lost at the plate at the present time.

 

Taylor has found himself and is too valuable to send down. Valdez has a knack of missing bats but his command is marginal just due to the movement he gets. Andriese has not impressed.

 

I would send Cordero and Chavis down and bring up Arroyo and Duran.

 

I also would platoon for Dalbec. He is becoming an offensive liability and needs to work out his problems. His pitch recognition seems to be lacking.

 

When Brasier becomes available I would either send Valdez down or consider moving Andriese. Sale won't be up for a while and by then an injury spot may open.

[oldtimer]

I'm very optimistic about Duran, but I never get all gah gah over any 2 week sample size, even in the bigs.

 

I do think he has power and will in the majors, but 7 HRs in AAA is not "legendary" in any way whatsoever.

 

I wasn't the person who said he had legendary power. He doesn't need to provided he can help us with his speed and be more consistent offensively than Cordero or Chavis.

[moonslav59]

Cordero needs regular work so he can possibly develop into more of a consistent offensive threat. AAA may be the best place for that to occur.

 

Chavis has had more chances with the Sox and still has major problems with the high fastball.

 

Dalbec appears totally lost at the plate at the present time.

 

Taylor has found himself and is too valuable to send down. Valdez has a knack of missing bats but his command is marginal just due to the movement he gets. Andriese has not impressed.

 

I would send Cordero and Chavis down and bring up Arroyo and Duran.

 

I also would platoon for Dalbec. He is becoming an offensive liability and needs to work out his problems. His pitch recognition seems to be lacking.

 

When Brasier becomes available I would either send Valdez down or consider moving Andriese. Sale won't be up for a while and by then an injury spot may open.

 

Dalbec is not "becoming an offensive liability." He's one of our hottest hitters. I agree he struggles vs RHP, so a platoon might be best. Duran and Arroyo won't help with that. Dalbec has 3 2Bs & 3 HRs (some huge ones) in his last 8 games. His OPS over that time is 1.149 (10 RBI).

 

Chavis only has had 3 looks- one during COVID season.This look, he has done pretty good in just 31 PAs (4 2B & 1 HR) with an .806 OPS. He has a career .732 OPS in 571 PAs with 24 HRs. That's a good enough start to a career to get another or longer look.

 

I'm not against bringing up Duran. His bat certainly looks ML ready, and maybe if his glove isn't, it might still be worth it. Bringing him up sure looks like it makes sense. If he can play CF FT, we can use Hernandez or Santana to platoon in LF when Verdugo plays RF vs RHPs and Renfroe sist vs righties. Kike can play 2B with Arroyo. Santana can platoon with Dalbec at 1B. That does leave Chavis as a 3rd stringer at 1B and 2B, so I can see why he would be the choice for Duran, but I think he deserves a longer look.

 

Keeping Duran down so Chavis gets a longer look sounds dumb, I agree, and he'll likely get another chance at some point due to an injury, so when Duran is deemed ready by Bloom & Co., I'd have no issue with Chavis being sent down. There really is no other option barring a trade of Santana or Marwin, which I seriously doubt is even being considered.

 

Santana won't be sent down, soon.

[moonslav59]

I wasn't the person who said he had legendary power. He doesn't need to provided he can help us with his speed and be more consistent offensively than Cordero or Chavis.

 

Yes, it wasn't you, and 7 HRs is very impressive to start a season.

 

My point is that once Cordero goes down for Arroyo, the guys Duran might replace have looked pretty good, too.

 

Chavis had 7 HRs in 21 games at AAA, last year and has 24 Hrs in 571 career PAs in the bigs. The bigs- not AAA. He has an .806 OPS, this year.

 

Dalbec is one of our hottest hitters (1.149 in last 8 games).

 

Santana has homered in both of his first 2 games. He had 3 HRs in 8 games on the farm, this year, too. Surely, he deserves a longer look, especially since he's already proven he can have a great ML season. He did it twice.

 

Marwin has hit under .560 in April and May, but he's Cora's guy and plays several positions well enough to be useful/

 

There's nobody else. I realize Chavis draws the shortest straw, but I just think he deserves a longer look.

[dgalehouse]

Sunday morning in Philly : Alex Cora sits at his desk making out his lineup card. Without knocking, in walks young Red Sox analytics whiz , Harold Nerdwell. Cora ( sounding annoyed ) : " What is it Harold ?" Harold: " Alex , My brother Ferdie and I want you to rest J.D. and Bogie today. Our studies show that guys produce better when they get more rest ." Cora: " Are you nuts? We need this game to stay in first. And we are off tomorrow." Harold : " All the better. Two days off are better than one. We cleared this with Mr. Werner. He agrees. " ( Drops printout on Cora's desk. ) Cora : " Okay. Anything else , Harold?" Harold: " No. That's it for now. Have a nice day , Alex." Cora , staring at ceiling, " My head hurts. "

[moonslav59]

Sunday morning in Philly : Alex Cora sits at his desk making out his lineup card. Without knocking, in walks young Red Sox analytics whiz , Harold Nerdwell. Cora ( sounding annoyed ) : " What is it Harold ?" Harold: " Alex , My brother Ferdie and I want you to rest J.D. and Bogie today. Our studies show that guys produce better when they get more rest ." Cora: " Are you nuts? We need this game to stay in first. And we are off tomorrow." Harold : " All the better. Two days off are better than one. We cleared this with Mr. Werner. He agrees. " ( Drops printout on Cora's desk. ) Cora : " Okay. Anything else , Harold?" Harold: " No. That's it for now. Have a nice day , Alex." Cora , staring at ceiling, " My head hurts. "

 

Nice!

[Nick]

By my count, there's only 161 days left on major league season, far below the 172 days required for one year's service time. Why not bring Duran? You can always send him back. Please spare me the 'mental damage' it'll do if he fails ********. He's 24 years old. If he can't take simple misstep, he's not the great player to be that Bloom thinks he'll be.

 

Platoon Renfroe and Dalbec.

 

1 JD

2 Devers

3 Xander

4 Vaz

5 Kike

6 Verdugo

7 Plawecki

8 Arroyo

9 Dalbec

10 Santana

11 Marwin

12 Renfroe

13 Duran

 

I like Chavis but as it was said on Overthemonster, Marwin is Cora's guy. He ain't going nowhere.

[Hugh2]

By my count, there's only 161 days left on major league season, far below the 172 days required for one year's service time. Why not bring Duran? You can always send him back. Please spare me the 'mental damage' it'll do if he fails ********. He's 24 years old. If he can't take simple misstep, he's not the great player to be that Bloom thinks he'll be.

 

Platoon Renfroe and Dalbec.

 

1 JD

2 Devers

3 Xander

4 Vaz

5 Kike

6 Verdugo

7 Plawecki

8 Arroyo

9 Dalbec

10 Santana

11 Marwin

12 Renfroe

13 Duran

 

I like Chavis but as it was said on Overthemonster, Marwin is Cora's guy. He ain't going nowhere.

 

He's not getting called up because he might not be ready. He's played 18 games above AA ball where he put up .646 ops. I know he's made adjustments, but that doesn't mean he's ready to make the next jump. There's a very large list of players who get rushed and struggle at the MLB level, even studs like Xander Bogaerts came up and put up pedestrian numbers, and Duran is not Xander.

 

Duran has also only faced 2 pitching staff in his 18 games above AA (Buffalo and Syracuse). I think we will see him up at some point this year, but I'm sure the Sox still has some things they want him to work on, and if Santana plays well it makes the decision to wait easier.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's not getting called up because he might not be ready. He's played 18 games above AA ball where he put up .646 ops. I know he's made adjustments, but that doesn't mean he's ready to make the next jump. There's a very large list of players who get rushed and struggle at the MLB level, even studs like Xander Bogaerts came up and put up pedestrian numbers, and Duran is not Xander.

 

Duran has also only faced 2 pitching staff in his 18 games above AA (Buffalo and Syracuse). I think we will see him up at some point this year, but I'm sure the Sox still has some things they want him to work on, and if Santana plays well it makes the decision to wait easier.

 

Duran and Casas are going to play for USA in the Olympic tournament for the next two weeks. It's the perfect opportunity for top prospects to experience playing against the best competition -- at their own level. Continued development is the main goal for each of these guys; we don't need either struggling through growing pains in the bigs yet, not when the Sox are already a first-place contender -- and with Santana just promoted.

 

The prudent plan is to let Duran and Casas dominate the minors, maybe get a taste as September call-ups, and then definitely battle for MLB roster spots in Florida next winter.

[Bellhorn04]

Sunday morning in Philly : Alex Cora sits at his desk making out his lineup card. Without knocking, in walks young Red Sox analytics whiz , Harold Nerdwell. Cora ( sounding annoyed ) : " What is it Harold ?" Harold: " Alex , My brother Ferdie and I want you to rest J.D. and Bogie today. Our studies show that guys produce better when they get more rest ." Cora: " Are you nuts? We need this game to stay in first. And we are off tomorrow." Harold : " All the better. Two days off are better than one. We cleared this with Mr. Werner. He agrees. " ( Drops printout on Cora's desk. ) Cora : " Okay. Anything else , Harold?" Harold: " No. That's it for now. Have a nice day , Alex." Cora , staring at ceiling, " My head hurts. "

 

Cora explained his reasons. Not that it will change anyone's mind.

[moonslav59]

Duran and Casas are going to play for USA in the Olympic tournament for the next two weeks. It's the perfect opportunity for top prospects to experience playing against the best competition -- at their own level. Continued development is the main goal for each of these guys; we don't need either struggling through growing pains in the bigs yet, not when the Sox are already a first-place contender -- and with Santana just promoted.

 

The prudent plan is to let Duran and Casas dominate the minors, maybe get a taste as September call-ups, and then definitely battle for MLB roster spots in Florida next winter.

 

The Olympic tournament is something I did not know about. It could be the reason Duran has not been called up, or maybe Sox brass still does not think he's ML ready. I trust they know what they are doing, and when he's called up, he'll be "ready."

 

This give Chavis a little more time to "prove he belongs," but even 2 more weeks is not really enough time.

 

He's has about 600 PAs at the ML level, spread out over 3 seasons. His career .732 mark is not bad for a player's first 600 PAs. It is not a reason to give up on him.

 

I realize sometimes the baseball gods are not kind or fair, and if Duran looks ML ready, it might come at Chavis's expense. so be it. Ther promise Chavis brings to the table does not seem to match Duran's promise.

 

We won't go to 12 pitchers.

 

We won't trade or DFA Marwin.

 

The only 2 options are Chavis or Santana.

[notin]

Duran and Casas are going to play for USA in the Olympic tournament for the next two weeks. It's the perfect opportunity for top prospects to experience playing against the best competition -- at their own level. Continued development is the main goal for each of these guys; we don't need either struggling through growing pains in the bigs yet, not when the Sox are already a first-place contender -- and with Santana just promoted.

 

The prudent plan is to let Duran and Casas dominate the minors, maybe get a taste as September call-ups, and then definitely battle for MLB roster spots in Florida next winter.

 

Aggree mostly.

 

Casas - yes. He has 75 PA above A-ball. He isn't Juan Soto. No rush with him.

 

Duran? I'd be surprised if we don't see him until September. Someone will get hurt and the OF depth in the minors is him and Marcus Wilson, and while Wilson does have the advantage of already being on the 40 man roster, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw Duran at some point this summer.

 

But there is no urgency. Chris Sale is the much bigger need...

[moonslav59]

We are still first in runs scored:

249 BOS

248 CWS

243 LAD

235 TBR

233 ATL

 

8. TOR 222

20. NYY 189

 

We are first in OPS

.774 BOS

.761 HOU

.758 ATL

.757 LAD

.756 CIN

 

7. TOR .741

11. TBR .723

18. NYY .701

 

ERA-

67 SDP

76 NYY

80 LAD

81 CWS

 

8. TBR 89

10. BOS 90

11. TOR 93

 

The Rays being 4th in runs scored but 11th in team OPS suggests some luck, but this is no smoke and mirrors team. They are 21st in BAbip at .281. Their pitching and defense is better than ours.

 

BTW, why is there no OPSbip stat? BAbip seems so out-dated.

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

But there is no urgency. Chris Sale is the much bigger need...

 

Do you mean this season? I just can't see counting on Sale to be consistent, regular-turn-through-rotation Sale again until next year. But I will agree that finding/developing/acquiring another Sale-type should always be the priority -- and if we're honest here -- the Sox' best hope to both qualify for and have a chance of advancing in this or any postseason (maybe this should be in the prospects thread on the draft).

[notin]

Do you mean this season? I just can't see counting on Sale to be consistent, regular-turn-through-rotation Sale again until next year. But I will agree that finding/developing/acquiring another Sale-type should always be the priority -- and if we're honest here -- the Sox' best hope to both qualify for and have a chance of advancing in this or any postseason (maybe this should be in the prospects thread on the draft).

 

 

Yeah it’s very, very likely Sale is pitching a very limited amount this year and possibly not even starting. Of course, he still fills a bigger need as a short stint, high leverage relief pitcher who can get important outs and is more likely to succeed in that role than Duran is as a a starting outfielder this season...

[moonslav59]

I think we have to plan as though Sale gives us nothing, and whatever he gives will be icing on the cake.

 

I think there's a good chance Duran gives us plus play, this summer, perhaps even as early as June.

 

Other than Houck, Bazardo & Brasier, I'm not sure we can count on anything else from the system.

[notin]

I think we have to plan as though Sale gives us nothing, and whatever he gives will be icing on the cake.

 

I think there's a good chance Duran gives us plus play, this summer, perhaps even as early as June.

 

Other than Houck, Bazardo & Brasier, I'm not sure we can count on anything else from the system.

 

Brandon Brennan?

[moonslav59]

Brandon Brennan?

 

You mean Workman?

 

Yes.

[Nick]

We are still first in runs scored:

249 BOS

248 CWS

243 LAD

235 TBR

233 ATL

 

8. TOR 222

20. NYY 189

 

We are first in OPS

.774 BOS

.761 HOU

.758 ATL

.757 LAD

.756 CIN

 

7. TOR .741

11. TBR .723

18. NYY .701

 

ERA-

67 SDP

76 NYY

80 LAD

81 CWS

 

8. TBR 89

10. BOS 90

11. TOR 93

 

The Rays being 4th in runs scored but 11th in team OPS suggests some luck, but this is no smoke and mirrors team. They are 21st in BAbip at .281. Their pitching and defense is better than ours.

 

BTW, why is there no OPSbip stat? BAbip seems so out-dated.

 

 

I'm more interested in median runs scored than average. Think back to the Oakland series. What good does average do in that series.

[mvp 78]

You mean Workman?

 

Yes.

 

No, Workman's stuff is too diminished right now. He's a pure reclamation project. His velo is way down.