A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

12-8 is better than anyone expected, this spring. Let's try to be happy with that. Even while on that nice winning stretch, we all knew some hard times were coming. Our best chance is to limit those times, and we need a few pitchers to step into the "stopper" role.

 

Here's a look at some small sample size data over our first 20 games:

 

OPS

1.147 JD

.970 Bogey

.933 Devers

.927 Arroyo

.871 Verdugo

.724 Kike

.717 Vaz

.692 Marwin

.545 Cordero

.487 Renfroe

 

vs RHPs

1.308 JD

1.006 Verdugo

.978 Devers

.972 Bogey

.885 Arroyo

.801 Kike

.789 Vaz

.701 Marwin

.538 Plawecki (14 PAs)

.535 Cordero

.464 Dalbec

.373 Renfroe

 

vs LHPs

1.048 Dalbec

.979 Arroyo

.967 Bogey

.829 Devers

.782 JD

.717 Renfroe (16 PAs)

.667 Cordero (3 PAs)

.652 Marwin

.581 Vaz

.560 Kike

.545 Verdugo

.522 Plawecki (10 PAs)

 

IP and ERA

24 Eovaldi 3.04

21 Pivetta 3.48

17 Richards 6.48

16 ERod 3.38

14 Perez 5.93

 

12 Andriese 1.54

10 Houck 4.35

10 Barnes 0.90

9.0 Whitlock 0.00

9.0 Valdez 2.00

8.2 Sawamura 2.08

7.0 D Hern 5.14

6.2 Ottavino 6.75

6.2 Taylor 10.80

5.2 Brice 4.76

1.0 Bazardo 0.00

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It sure does.

 

He's always had issues with the high BB/9 rate (3.4 before this year). At this age, I doubt he "gets over it."

 

I still like him more than Perez, and so far, he's done better than Richards.

 

At least Pivetta has a better WHIP than both Perez and Richards (who looks like he doesn't even know where the ball is going when it leaves his hand sometimes). For all Richards' vaunted spin-rate, we've seen too many pitches spinning out of the zone or onto sweet spots. Pivetta misses more bats... so far.

 

I like Cora, but I was suspicious in ST when he compared Richards to Kevin Brown. Red Sox fans fondly remember Brown for gagging his Game Seven start wearing pinstripes in the '04 ALCS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12-8 is better than anyone expected, this spring. Let's try to be happy with that. Even while on that nice winning stretch, we all knew some hard times were coming. Our best chance is to limit those times, and we need a few pitchers to step into the "stopper" role.

 

Here's a look at some small sample size data over our first 20 games:

 

OPS

1.147 JD

.970 Bogey

.933 Devers

.927 Arroyo

.871 Verdugo

.724 Kike

.717 Vaz

.692 Marwin

.545 Cordero

.487 Renfroe

 

vs RHPs

1.308 JD

1.006 Verdugo

.978 Devers

.972 Bogey

.885 Arroyo

.801 Kike

.789 Vaz

.701 Marwin

.538 Plawecki (14 PAs)

.535 Cordero

.464 Dalbec

.373 Renfroe

 

vs LHPs

1.048 Dalbec

.979 Arroyo

.967 Bogey

.829 Devers

.782 JD

.717 Renfroe (16 PAs)

.667 Cordero (3 PAs)

.652 Marwin

.581 Vaz

.560 Kike

.545 Verdugo

.522 Plawecki (10 PAs)

 

IP and ERA

24 Eovaldi 3.04

21 Pivetta 3.48

17 Richards 6.48

16 ERod 3.38

14 Perez 5.93

 

12 Andriese 1.54

10 Houck 4.35

10 Barnes 0.90

9.0 Whitlock 0.00

9.0 Valdez 2.00

8.2 Sawamura 2.08

7.0 D Hern 5.14

6.2 Ottavino 6.75

6.2 Taylor 10.80

5.2 Brice 4.76

1.0 Bazardo 0.00

 

 

 

 

Cordero and Renfroe are what they are. And for Boston in 2021, that's mainly cheaper and more controllable versions of the flickering potential of Beni and JBJ.

[notin]

Cordero and Renfroe are what they are. And for Boston in 2021, that's mainly cheaper and more controllable versions of the flickering potential of Beni and JBJ.

 

What Cordero and Renfroe are is stopgap outfielders while this team puts some semblance of a talent base behind them.

 

Maybe Bloom has a bigger picture in mind with Cordero, but I am not certain he was the key part of the Benintendi deal, and I think the PTBNL from the Mets was more what he had in mind...

[Nick]

Not sure of Cora guys...

 

Gonzalez, Cordero, Renfroe and Kike... That's a black hole at the bottom and top of the lineup.

[moonslav59]

What Cordero and Renfroe are is stopgap outfielders while this team puts some semblance of a talent base behind them.

 

Maybe Bloom has a bigger picture in mind with Cordero, but I am not certain he was the key part of the Benintendi deal, and I think the PTBNL from the Mets was more what he had in mind...

 

Yes!

 

That's one reason I called this season a "bridge season" more than a "rebuild season." We signed a ton of players to 1 year deals or 1 year deals with an option year. Nobody got more than 2 years.

 

I think Cordero was a shot in the dark. He has tremendous upside, but the biggest part of the trade was the minor salary relief and the 3 PTBNLs.

 

If you look at this team's biggest weaknesses beyond pitching, they are defense, 2B, LF/CF and 1B.

 

It's no coincidence that our best immediate hopes in the minors and low cost ML'er play these positions. This is the season to let some of this all shake out and get a better idea of who can fill a role in 2022 and beyond, and who cannot.

 

2B: Arroyo, Downs, Chavis, Arauz, Munoz (Hernandez)

LF: Cordero, Chavis (Renfroe)

CF: Duran (Verdugo/Hernandez)

1B: Dalbec, Casas

[moonslav59]

Not sure of Cora guys...

 

Gonzalez, Cordero, Renfroe and Kike... That's a black hole at the bottom and top of the lineup.

 

Bloom got these guys- not Cora.

 

Also, I doubt these guys hit this badly going forward. Kike is already turning it around a bit- same with Marwin.

 

Last 14 days:

.960 Dalbec

.819 Hernandez

.757 Marwin

 

Last 7 days:

1.167 Dalbec

.989 Kike

.884 Marwin

[notin]

At least Pivetta has a better WHIP than both Perez and Richards (who looks like he doesn't even know where the ball is going when it leaves his hand sometimes). For all Richards' vaunted spin-rate, we've seen too many pitches spinning out of the zone or onto sweet spots. Pivetta misses more bats... so far.

 

I like Cora, but I was suspicious in ST when he compared Richards to Kevin Brown. Red Sox fans fondly remember Brown for gagging his Game Seven start wearing pinstripes in the '04 ALCS.

 

If that's your memory of Kevin Brown, how does that comparison look now?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If that's your memory of Kevin Brown, how does that comparison look now?

 

Ha -- good one; Ortiz just went yard again.

[dgalehouse]

We always need to be periodically reminded that the baseball season is a marathon. Can't get too high with every win or too low with every loss. The schedule for the immediate future looks pretty soft . Lots of games against the Rangers , Tigers and ( yet again ) the Orioles. That should keep the Sox in first place , at least for now.

[moonslav59]

We always need to be periodically reminded that the baseball season is a marathon. Can't get too high with every win or too low with every loss. The schedule for the immediate future looks pretty soft . Lots of games against the Rangers , Tigers and ( yet again ) the Orioles. That should keep the Sox in first place , at least for now.

 

Agreed, but on the flip side, if we continue to struggle, it would be even more concerning against these opps.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

Bullpen short one arm?

 

The Red Sox bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA (3.18), but it’s clear it is short one late-inning piece without Ryan Brasier (calf injury).

 

“We’ve been saying that all along,” Cora said. “But somebody has to step up. Bottom line is we had the lead going into the eighth and we ended up losing the game. We feel we’re capable. We’ve got capable guys. But people have to step up and do the job.”

 

Cora named Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino and Darwinzon Hernandez as his top high-leverage relievers with the lead in the seventh inning and beyond. But Ottavino has six walks in 6 ⅔ innings (8.1 BB/9). Hernandez has allowed eight walks in 7 innings (10.3 BB/9).

 

Shouldn't we be doing everything to win winnable games?

 

Geez, we have full of pitchers with control issues.

 

We have a 24 year old kid who hasn't walked a batter in 9 innings.

 

Why don't we try him? You know, in high leverage situations? He can't do much worse.

[moonslav59]

Upcoming Schedule (possible SP'er)

 

10 games in the next 12 days, so we get some rest (23 in 26 days).

APR

23 SEA Perez

24 SEA Eovaldi

25 SEA ERod

off

27 @NYM Richards +1 day rest

28 @NYM Pivetta +1

29 @ TEX Perez +1 (or Eovaldi)

30 @ TEX Eovaldi +1 (or ERod

M1 @ TEX ERod +1 (or Perez +3)

M2 @ TEX Richards

off

4 DET Pivetta +1 (Eovaldi)

5 DET Perez +1 (ERod)

6 DET Eovaldi +1 (Richards +4)

7 @ BAL ERod +1 (Pivetta +4)

8 @ BAL Richards +1 (Perez +2)

9 @ BAL Pivetta (Eovaldi)

10 @BAL Eovaldi (ERod)

OAK for 3

LAA for 3

off

 

 

[moonslav59]

Per MassLive

 

Bullpen short one arm?

 

The Red Sox bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA (3.18), but it’s clear it is short one late-inning piece without Ryan Brasier (calf injury).

 

“We’ve been saying that all along,” Cora said. “But somebody has to step up. Bottom line is we had the lead going into the eighth and we ended up losing the game. We feel we’re capable. We’ve got capable guys. But people have to step up and do the job.”

 

Cora named Matt Barnes, Adam Ottavino and Darwinzon Hernandez as his top high-leverage relievers with the lead in the seventh inning and beyond. But Ottavino has six walks in 6 ⅔ innings (8.1 BB/9). Hernandez has allowed eight walks in 7 innings (10.3 BB/9).

 

Shouldn't we be doing everything to win winnable games?

 

Geez, we have full of pitchers with control issues.

 

We have a 24 year old kid who hasn't walked a batter in 9 innings.

 

Why don't we try him? You know, in high leverage situations? He can't do much worse.

 

Whitlock is being stretched out to maybe be a starter, eventually.

 

We knew going into this season we had a big hole in the pen for the 8th and 9th inning.

 

Barnes has been superb, but even that is not enough.

 

I'd give Andriese and Sawamura more time in the 8th inning before I start messing with Whitlock's plan to return him to the starter role or long relief.

 

I almost brought up Valdez, but I stopped myself, short.

[iortiz]

This is what I’d do after see what I’ve seen.

 

DFA Tylor. Call up Houk and open a spot for him in the rotation. Move Richards to pen.

Call up Duran already. He’s ready. Nothing more to probe in minors. Sit Renfroe and use his bat for platoon situations. Same for Cordero.

Arroyo has to play every day. You can’t miss that bat.

Stop using Ottavino and a Hernández in high-leverage situations. Use the Japanese and Whitlock for those situations instead.

 

Other than that I’d go like this in a regular basis.

 

2B Arroyo

RF Verdugo

SS Xander

DH JD

3B Devers

CF Vazquez

1B Dalbec

RF Platoon Situation

CF Duran

 

SP Rodriguez

SP Eovaldi

SP Pivetta

SP Houk

SP Perez

 

C Barnes

Set UP 1 Whitlock

Set UP 2 Sawa

MR Ottavino

MR Valdez

MR Hernández

MR Brice

LR Richards

[mvp 78]

This is what I’d do after see what I’ve seen.

 

DFA Tylor. Call up Houk and open a spot for him in the rotation. Move Richards to pen.

Call up Duran already. He’s ready. Nothing more to probe in minors. Sit Renfroe and use his bat for platoon situations. Same for Cordero.

Arroyo has to play every day. You can’t miss that bat.

Stop using Ottavino and a Hernández in high-leverage situations. Use the Japanese and Whitlock for those situations instead.

 

Other than that I’d go like this in a regular basis.

 

2B Arroyo

RF Verdugo

SS Xander

DH JD

3B Devers

CF Vazquez

1B Dalbec

RF Platoon Situation

CF Duran

 

SP Rodriguez

SP Eovaldi

SP Pivetta

SP Houk

SP Perez

 

C Barnes

Set UP 1 Whitlock

Set UP 2 Sawa

MR Ottavino

MR Valdez

MR Hernández

MR Brice

LR Richards

 

This post is Andriese erasure.

[moonslav59]

This post is Andriese erasure.

 

Plus, we are NOT calling up Duran, at this point.

 

Renfroe and Cordero will be give a longer look. Plus, my guess is, if we bench one or both, Marwin gets the call not Duran.

 

We could even call up Chavis for LF before Duran for CF.

[mvp 78]

Whitlock is being stretched out to maybe be a starter, eventually.

 

We knew going into this season we had a big hole in the pen for the 8th and 9th inning.

 

Barnes has been superb, but even that is not enough.

 

I'd give Andriese and Sawamura more time in the 8th inning before I start messing with Whitlock's plan to return him to the starter role or long relief.

 

I almost brought up Valdez, but I stopped myself, short.

 

Whitlock can be turned into a starter next year. I'd go easy on him this year and just let him be a bulk innings guy.

[mvp 78]

Plus, we are NOT calling up Duran, at this point.

 

Renfroe and Cordero will be give a longer look. Plus, my guess is, if we bench one or both, Marwin gets the call not Duran.

 

We could even call up Chavis for LF before Duran for CF.

 

Duran needs to perform at AAA for them to call him up. If there was an injury, they'd probably even call up Puello first.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock can be turned into a starter next year. I'd go easy on him this year and just let him be a bulk innings guy.

 

I think the plan, this year, is for him to be a 3-5 innings guy in relief or maybe get a spot start here and there, if needed.

 

2 things:

 

He is 24- not some 21 year old rule 5 hope.

 

He pitcher over 120 innings in 21 starts in 2018 in the minors and started 14 games in 2019 (70 IP).

 

 

I think he could give us close to 120, this year- same as Houck.

[moonslav59]

Duran needs to perform at AAA for them to call him up. If there was an injury, they'd probably even call up Puello first.

 

Yes, or Chavis or even add Munoz to the 40 man before Duran is called up, this early.

[iortiz]

This post is Andriese erasure.

 

Forgot him lol. If there’s room add him otherwise put him instead Brice.

[iortiz]

Duran needs to perform at AAA for them to call him up. If there was an injury, they'd probably even call up Puello first.

 

I liked what I saw in ST. Not sure whether Puello, Muñoz and even Chavis have his upside. The truth is that we need an OF badly. Have a lot of faith on the kid. Renfroe is an automatic out.

[moonslav59]

I liked what I saw in ST. Not sure whether Puello, Muñoz and even Chavis have his upside. The truth is that we need an OF badly. Have a lot of faith on the kid. Renfroe is an automatic out.

 

I liked what I saw, too, but the kid is just learning the position.

 

I trust the Sox management team to know when he's ready.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it a first in Red Sox history having two Christians hitting back to back?

[moonslav59]

Is it a first in Red Sox history having two Christians hitting back to back?

 

Surrounded by heathens, though.

[moonslav59]

Is it a first in Red Sox history having two Christians hitting back to back?

 

Let's have a crusade, instead of a parade!

[moonslav59]

Two Christians walk into a bar after 8 straight balls...

[Bellhorn04]

The Christians, reportedly, have never cared for Steve Lyons.

[Bellhorn04]

Our 2-3-4-5 hitters:

 

Verdugo - Thanks Bloom!

JDM - Thanks Dave!

Bogey - Thanks Theo!

Raffy - Thanks Ben!