A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

Garrett Whitlock continues to rest his arm. One inning pitched in last 10 days.

 

I'm frustrated not getting to watch him pitch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Power Rankings now have Sox ranked 3rd.

 

MLB Power Rankings after week 2

WWW.MLB.COM

---

We’re headed into the third full week of the season, and things are shaking out exactly how we drew it up. The Mariners and Royals are tops in their divisions, the Reds have the second-highest run differential in baseball and the Yankees are off to their worst start in nearly

 

No complaints; they've been playing tough teams the past week. There are 6 winning clubs in the AL right now: Boston, Seattle, LA, Oakland, KC, Cleveland... and the White Sox and/or Twins may be more balanced and dangerous than them all. Somehow, though, the team with the worst record in the league is still #11 overall (because, you know, they have a really good pitcher, a really good hitter, and 75 others who can bat the ball really far -- if they ever make contact; they're such heavy favorites that they have guys retire in the first month of the season).

[moonslav59]

I actually think #3 is too high.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I actually think #3 is too high.

 

No disagreement here, except I'd take the Sox so far over the #4 Reds and #5 Brewers. But the Braves or Mets would probably win the AL East if that was their division.

[Bellhorn04]

Garrett Whitlock continues to rest his arm. One inning pitched in last 10 days.

 

I'm frustrated not getting to watch him pitch.

 

They had to limit his innings this year anyway.

[harmony]

Power Rankings now have Sox ranked 3rd.

 

MLB Power Rankings after week 2

WWW.MLB.COM

---

We’re headed into the third full week of the season, and things are shaking out exactly how we drew it up. The Mariners and Royals are tops in their divisions, the Reds have the second-highest run differential in baseball and the Yankees are off to their worst start in nearly

The Seattle Mariners face a challenging week with two games against the top-ranked Dodgers and four games against the third-ranked Red Sox.

 

The 21st-ranked Mariners, 10-6, to date have won four of five series against teams ranked No. 6, No. 10, No. 12, No. 18 and No. 26.

 

Tough, tough April schedule.

[Nick]

They had to limit his innings this year anyway.

 

Sure....182 day season. At this rate he'll get to pitch 18 innings. What a waste of talent.

 

You know I'm just being an ass......but it's frustrating how we run our pitching staff.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Fangraphs has 26 balls hit into Bogaerts' zone this year and him converting 16 of them, 62%. Shortstop league average is 74%. Still a small sample, but this basic part of defense is where he needs to be good.

 

2016: 79%

2017: 77%

2018: 76%

2019: 78%

2020: 72%

2021: 62%

 

I think there is legitimate concern that Xander could be moved off position this offseason. Unfortunately, there are zero guys in house that can play SS. Lots of 2B/3B guys.

[Nick]

@redsoxstats

Fangraphs has 26 balls hit into Bogaerts' zone this year and him converting 16 of them, 62%. Shortstop league average is 74%. Still a small sample, but this basic part of defense is where he needs to be good.

 

2016: 79%

2017: 77%

2018: 76%

2019: 78%

2020: 72%

2021: 62%

 

I think there is legitimate concern that Xander could be moved off position this offseason. Unfortunately, there are zero guys in house that can play SS. Lots of 2B/3B guys.

 

Big question is does he hit well enough to be an elite 3rd baseman?

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Fangraphs has 26 balls hit into Bogaerts' zone this year and him converting 16 of them, 62%. Shortstop league average is 74%. Still a small sample, but this basic part of defense is where he needs to be good.

 

2016: 79%

2017: 77%

2018: 76%

2019: 78%

2020: 72%

2021: 62%

 

I think there is legitimate concern that Xander could be moved off position this offseason. Unfortunately, there are zero guys in house that can play SS. Lots of 2B/3B guys.

 

Some very good ones will likely hit the FA market, this year. With Bogey reaching his opt out after next year, maybe we could be "proactive," assuming we don't extend him.

 

Would you move Bogey to 3B or 2B? (If his issue is range, 3B make more sense, but that means moving Devers to 1B and making 2 moves due to one signing.)

 

[moonslav59]

Big question is does he hit well enough to be an elite 3rd baseman?

 

Of course he does.

 

BTW, as a league, the SS position has hit about as well as 3B over the last few years.

[mvp 78]

Some very good ones will likely hit the FA market, this year. With Bogey reaching his opt out after next year, maybe we could be "proactive," assuming we don't extend him.

 

Would you move Bogey to 3B or 2B? (If his issue is range, 3B make more sense, but that means moving Devers to 1B and making 2 moves due to one signing.)

 

 

I think he goes to 2B. He only goes to 3B if they are moving Devers to DH or LF. They have enough guys to play 1B so it doesn't make much sense to transition Devers there.

 

I bet they see how Downs plays this year and either has him take over for Xander at some point or trade him. I'm not sold on Xander retiring as a Red Sox either. I worry they trade him before his contract is up.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxpayroll

Sox '22 payroll estimations before team options for Richards/Perez/Andriese:

- Est. $140MM with JD opting in

- Est $118MM with JD opting out

 

CBT is still TBA beyond this season, but if it increases $5MM over the '21 number - Sox would be looking at $73MM or $95MM pending JD.

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Red Sox OF Jarren Duran just hit his second HR of the day. 1-2 FB down that he golfed to straight away CF for a 3-run HR. His power is legit. In this two game look, Duran looks very comfortable w/FB down, but has struggled when they are elevated. Something to watch going forward.

 

If Renfroe continues to be awful, it's only a matter of time before Duran is called up.

[iortiz]

@IanCundall

Red Sox OF Jarren Duran just hit his second HR of the day. 1-2 FB down that he golfed to straight away CF for a 3-run HR. His power is legit. In this two game look, Duran looks very comfortable w/FB down, but has struggled when they are elevated. Something to watch going forward.

 

If Renfroe continues to be awful, it's only a matter of time before Duran is called up.

 

I want to see this kid ASAP making the team. He won't go back. He impressed me a lot in ST. Reminds me Mookie with more PWR.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Red Sox new power rankings today

Athletic 3rd (+14)

MLB 3rd (+17)

CBS 4th (+4)

[mvp 78]

I want to see this kid ASAP making the team. He won't go back. He impressed me a lot in ST. Reminds me Mookie with more PWR.

 

The corner OFers are definitely an issue on this team. If Verdugo was in RF, Duran in CF and platoon Renfroe/Franchy in LF, the lineup would be much more formidable.

[moonslav59]

The corner OFers are definitely an issue on this team. If Verdugo was in RF, Duran in CF and platoon Renfroe/Franchy in LF, the lineup would be much more formidable.

 

Big assumption: Duran is a plus on offense at the MLB level, right now.

 

To me, if Arroyo keeps playing well, Hernandez should play CF more often. That allows for Verdugo to play LF and the platoon in LF.

[moonslav59]

I think he goes to 2B. He only goes to 3B if they are moving Devers to DH or LF. They have enough guys to play 1B so it doesn't make much sense to transition Devers there.

 

I bet they see how Downs plays this year and either has him take over for Xander at some point or trade him. I'm not sold on Xander retiring as a Red Sox either. I worry they trade him before his contract is up.

 

Devers may be the best defensive 1Bman we have in the system, once he learns it.

 

He's clearly the best on offense.

 

We can't count on Casas, yet.

 

Dalbec has not proven he is a FT 1Bman, yet, either.

[notin]

I want to see this kid ASAP making the team. He won't go back. He impressed me a lot in ST. Reminds me Mookie with more PWR.

 

While both are former 2b’s that were moved to CF in the Red Sox minor league system, I think the comp ends there or at least doesn’t go much further...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While both are former 2b’s that were moved to CF in the Red Sox minor league system, I think the comp ends there or at least doesn’t go much further...

 

The real comp may come down to Duran vs. Cordero... Franchy is a below-average MLB outfielder. Duran may be also, though elite speed can outrun misjudged flies and liners at times. Maybe Franchy will have Wil Venable hit a hundred daily fungoes off the wall to improve, but either way, the Sox aren't messing with a winning combo by calling up a prospect (who needs to play to develop) right now -- unless it's to replace an injured player.

[notin]

The real comp may come down to Duran vs. Cordero... Franchy is a below-average MLB outfielder. Duran may be also, though elite speed can outrun misjudged flies and liners at times. Maybe Franchy will have Wil Venable hit a hundred daily fungoes off the wall to improve, but either way, the Sox aren't messing with a winning combo by calling up a prospect (who needs to play to develop) right now -- unless it's to replace an injured player.

 

While advanced metrics don't like Cordero's defense, a lot of scouting reports do, especially when it comes down to tracking down difficult flyballs for outfielders to get to (re: range).

 

That said, he looked a little bit lost on Eaton's RBI double today.

 

And I am unaware of Duran's arm strength, but Cordero can throw very, very well..

[oldtimer]

Devers may be the best defensive 1Bman we have in the system, once he learns it.

 

He's clearly the best on offense.

 

We can't count on Casas, yet.

 

Dalbec has not proven he is a FT 1Bman, yet, either.

 

I believe Devers continues at 3rd this year and any evaluation of moving him will take place in the off season. Clearly he is a star offensive player and will find a home on the club.

 

I think the verdict is out on Dalbec, Renfroe and Codero. Dalbec may well improve his hitting and with his power and defensive abilities stay with the team longer term. I'd say the verdict is out on him right now. Renfroe looks like a decent defensive outfielder but his offense is a major question. Codero has been a pleasant surprise offensively yet his defense is suspect. neither Codero or Renfroe seem particularly flexible, since they tend to be a liability against same side pitching.

 

The Sox have Chavis and Duran as potential replacements this season. There is no guarantee that Chavis will hit well and his defense is somewhat suspect. Duran is that fresh new face. His main strength is his speed and you rightly point out he would be an unknown against ML pitching. Still, if some of our players are struggling for a significant length of time, it may be best to try alternatives.We may be a playoff level team and we shouldn't overlook the possibility of improving through replacement of a struggling player.

[moonslav59]

While advanced metrics don't like Cordero's defense, a lot of scouting reports do, especially when it comes down to tracking down difficult flyballs for outfielders to get to (re: range).

 

That said, he looked a little bit lost on Eaton's RBI double today.

 

And I am unaware of Duran's arm strength, but Cordero can throw very, very well..

 

He's got the tools to be a plus defender.

 

I still think he may win the CF job by the end of the season, if they give him a chance.

[moonslav59]

I believe Devers continues at 3rd this year and any evaluation of moving him will take place in the off season. Clearly he is a star offensive player and will find a home on the club.

 

I think the verdict is out on Dalbec, Renfroe and Codero. Dalbec may well improve his hitting and with his power and defensive abilities stay with the team longer term. I'd say the verdict is out on him right now. Renfroe looks like a decent defensive outfielder but his offense is a major question. Codero has been a pleasant surprise offensively yet his defense is suspect. neither Codero or Renfroe seem particularly flexible, since they tend to be a liability against same side pitching.

 

The Sox have Chavis and Duran as potential replacements this season. There is no guarantee that Chavis will hit well and his defense is somewhat suspect. Duran is that fresh new face. His main strength is his speed and you rightly point out he would be an unknown against ML pitching. Still, if some of our players are struggling for a significant length of time, it may be best to try alternatives.We may be a playoff level team and we shouldn't overlook the possibility of improving through replacement of a struggling player.

 

Hopefully, we have enough information on Dalbec & Chavis by season's end.

 

We should know if Devers will stay at 3B or be moved to 1B. IMO, there is no way he is moved to LF or DH at his age.

 

If Dalbec shows he can hit, he may be moved to 3B.

 

If Casas shows a need to be promoted, we'll deal with that when it happens.

 

You are right, nothing happens until next winter.

 

[Nick]

Sure....182 day season. At this rate he'll get to pitch 18 innings. What a waste of talent.

 

You know I'm just being an ass......but it's frustrating how we run our pitching staff.

 

Apparently Cora read my post from this morning.

 

Whitlock pitches 2.2 innings, 2 K', 0 BB, 0 Hits

 

I guess we'll see him on April 29th.

[Elktonnick]

Hopefully, we have enough information on Dalbec & Chavis by season's end.

 

We should know if Devers will stay at 3B or be moved to 1B. IMO, there is no way he is moved to LF or DH at his age.

 

If Dalbec shows he can hit, he may be moved to 3B.

 

If Casas shows a need to be promoted, we'll deal with that when it happens.

 

You are right, nothing happens until next winter.

 

 

Devers will be a third base for a lot longer then this year. Devers has the potential to be a gold glove third baseman. His issues at third are all mental not physical. He WILL learn to play the position.

[Bellhorn04]

Apparently Cora read my post from this morning.

 

Whitlock pitches 2.2 innings, 2 K', 0 BB, 0 Hits

 

I guess we'll see him on April 29th.

 

From the sounds of it, they're very serious about turning him into a starter.

 

Patience my friend. We're in pretty good hands with Bloom and Cora.

[Kimmi]

Who should lead off? Arroyo? Cordero? (I'm not saying I like Kike up first, but we have no clear lead off hitter.)

 

If we take a 2-5 hitter and move him to #1, we severely weaken a key slot.

 

Now, if Vaz keeps hitting like JD, then maybe...

 

I would have had Verdugo leading off, Bogaerts 2nd, JD 4th, and Devers 5th. To me, those are the 4 most important spots in the batting order. Put Kike 3rd.

 

That said, Cora has things under control. Despite my previous criticism of Cora for putting Kike in the leadoff spot, I trust that he knows what he's doing. His line up is working. Leave it alone.

[Kimmi]

Devers will be a third base for a lot longer then this year. Devers has the potential to be a gold glove third baseman. His issues at third are all mental not physical. He WILL learn to play the position.

 

As long as he's been in the league, he's still a very young player. I tend to think that he will improve defensively as well. Regardless, he's a special player. Leave him alone and just let him do his thing.