A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

The team went the patient path in and then decided they wanted to splurge and then largely hung the GM out to dry in each case when it didn't work. It's ownership when it's successful and the GM when it's not. It's been pretty reactive. Bloom will certainly be safe until the first actual disappointing season - ownership has shown very very think skin about those. Each GM represented an organizational philosophy and Henry has veered between the two very sharply.

 

Now the roster this year resembles the 2013 in that there were no big splashes but some good depth signings - and enough quality in the position players that you can be confident there. If Cora and company can consistently piece together enough run prevention, it will be a fun summer.

 

We've spent big many, many years. It only seems like a splurge, when the splurge does not turn out well- Crawford, Pablo/HRam, Eovaldi/Sale.

 

Even when we reset, we stay near the tax line. We've been a consistent top 5 spending team almost, if not every, year since the early 2000's.

 

The big problems usually arise more from trading away prospects than splurging and re-setting.

 

To me, it makes sense to wait to spend really big, when we feel like we are 1-2 players away from serious ring contention. It's hard not to think we could have extended the window beyond 2018, but it fizzled.

 

Had we signed Scherzer instead of Pablo/HRam, Ben would have stuck around longer- in all liklihood.

 

When the farm is low, and the budget seems full of declining or non productive players, it's time to re-set, regroup, and build back up again. I'm not sure why so many fans get so upset about this.

 

Look, I bget why people think, if we are still a top 3 spending team, why are we one of the top 10 contenders? Well, we over extended ourselves the last cycle, and until we flush out the deadwood salaries and build the farm back up, we have to check our high expectations at the door.

 

[moonslav59]

I’m expecting something decent for Khalil Lee...

 

In theory, the one guy from the Mets should be better than the 2 we get from KC, combined.

[moonslav59]

yes I do agree. This team has changed gm's on a consistent basis. Although they have been well paid for their efforts, I do sense that in part they have served as scapegoats.

 

I don't disagree, and I get the argument about being inconsistent, but at various times in our cycle or building ring teams every 3-5 years, we've needed GMs with different expertise.

 

I wouldn't want DD on a team with the 29th best farm and limited budget space, just as maybe Ben & Bloom aren't the best GMs for a team needing precision big spending to get us over the top.

 

It seemed like Theo was the best at giving us the best of both worlds, but even he admitted, he strayed too far fro the balanced approach.

 

I'm not sure how good we'd have been had we kept the same GM for 15-20 year. Only Theo seems like one I'd think would be pretty sure of bringing us more rings had he not left.

 

I felt Ben was on the way towards building that "balanced team, but the Castillo-Pablo-HRam signings hurt a lot, and the 3 last place finishes were just too much to bear.

[jad]

https://spaghettimodels.com/

 

Another good one. When the hurricanes come, I watch it religiously. (although given the uncertainty, I just choose the least catastrophic path in order to feel better about what is about to happen!)

[a700hitter]

Or the long answer.

 

Using the Fagnraphs system, Khalil Lee has a Future Value of 45. The only Sox pitching prospect to better this is Mata with a 45+, and that was before he would miss all of 2021. Houck and Song also have a 45. Now if the Sox get a prospect of equal value, that would be 2019 second rounder J.T. Ginn (a name I have dropped a few times as this PTBNL). Or if the rumors are true about the fascination of the Mets GM with Lee, possibly Matthew Allan (FV: 50). But that might be too hopeful.

 

Obviously we have no guarantee it is even a pitching prospect. But if it is, I strongly suspect it would be Ginn and Fangraphs already has him at or with the top pitchers in the Sox minors...

Hasn’t fangraphs been updated to indicate that Lee is a busted prospect?

[notin]

Hasn’t fangraphs been updated to indicate that Lee is a busted prospect?

 

Based on what?

[a700hitter]

Based on what?

His 4 years of professional ball. He is a little speed guy who is a K machine that hasn’t played above His 1 year at AA. The Royals gave up on him and couldn’t give him to the Red Sox. The Red Sox flipped him to the Mets for a couple of lottery tickets.

[moonslav59]

His 4 years of professional ball. He is a little speed guy who is a K machine that hasn’t played above His 1 year at AA. The Royals gave up on him and couldn’t give him to the Red Sox. The Red Sox flipped him to the Mets for a couple of lottery tickets.

 

1) It's one lottery ticket from the Mets not two, and two from KC for 3 total.

2) Why couldn't KC give Lee to the Sox? (BTW, KC thought enough of him to protect him from rule 5 and add him to their 40.)

3) He's only 22, and his first season in the minors was 49 games.

4) He's got a little power (128 XBHs in less than 1500 career PAs, and he has a nice OBP (.366), so he's not just about a "little speed" and SBs.

5) He's a plus-plus defender.

6) He's ranked the 7th best Mets prospect by Pipeline. (He was ranked 8th in KC's system.)

7) BTV gives him a trade value of 9.3- about what Jimenez 10.8, Mata 9.9 or DHern 8.9 are worth.

8) He was still ranked rather high in KC's system and fangraphs, but clearly you know more about him than anyone.

[a700hitter]

1) It's one lottery ticket from the Mets not two, and two from KC for 3 total.

2) Why couldn't KC give Lee to the Sox? (BTW, KC thought enough of him to protect him from rule 5 and add him to their 40.)

3) He's only 22, and his first season in the minors was 49 games.

4) He's got a little power (128 XBHs in less than 1500 career PAs, and he has a nice OBP (.366), so he's not just about a "little speed" and SBs.

5) He's a plus-plus defender.

6) He's ranked the 7th best Mets prospect by Pipeline. (He was ranked 8th in KC's system.)

7) BTV gives him a trade value of 9.3- about what Jimenez 10.8, Mata 9.9 or DHern 8.9 are worth.

8) He was still ranked rather high in KC's system and fangraphs, but clearly you know more about him than anyone.

It’s 50/50 that I do. I am just glad that we didn’t take him, and I am not hearing great anticipation from the Mets side of things in NY. I think Fangraphs is behind the curve on this guy.

[notin]

His 4 years of professional ball. He is a little speed guy who is a K machine that hasn’t played above His 1 year at AA. The Royals gave up on him and couldn’t give him to the Red Sox. The Red Sox flipped him to the Mets for a couple of lottery tickets.

 

None of that makes him a busted prospect.

 

His “4 years of professional ball” started at 18. And he’s only 23 now. Yes he did lead the 2019 Texas League in strikeouts (by 2 over 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis), but he also lead the league in walks. Which is actually a good thing.

 

As for why KC traded him, I don’t know about whether or not they gave up on him, but I actually doubt they did, mostly because he did lead the Texas League in walks and plate discipline is tough to teach. I will say every article written about him on the Internet is loaded with praise, primarily for his defensive skills, and many of them are written by people who did more than look at his B-R page or watch some of his handful of spring training at bats...

 

Struggling to believe your claim about being 50% accurate with prospects right now...

Edited April 16, 2021 by notin

[Hitch]

I agree. The older I get, the tougher accepting change becomes. Part of that is the age thing but a good chunk of it is that I am still not convinced that just changing makes things better. I don't think that I will ever get to a point where I can see the logic, financial or otherwise, in losing a player like Betts. That being said, a love of the game and of course the Red Sox is inbred to this guy from rural Maine. I tried not to follow them, but it hasn't worked. It is what I have done every summer since the mid 1950's. There are too many things to like about these guys not to follow them. I'm thinking that Bobby Dalbec has a chance to become another big contributor very soon.

 

I hear you. I get the arguments against letting Betts go, I really do. Sometimes change is good, sometimes it's bad. We just have to hope the people in charge get it right more than most. I've mostly been more of a club guy than a player guy. I'm younger than your guys, and came to Baseball late as a Brit. When I was a boy I supported (and still do) the soccer team Liverpool FC. We had a player playing for us (Steven Gerrard) who was one of the best in the world. Imagine how much bigger and wider soccer is as a sport around the world than baseball and then having one of the absolute best in the world at your team. Plus he was a local boy so the affection was X a million. After winning the biggest trophy in European soccer (a one off, massively against the odds - think last year's Sox winning the WS), he decided to leave to join a team that had been bought out by a Russian oil baron and all around Oligarchy. We were around the same age and I had followed his career since he was a kid. It broke my heart, to the point where I thought I needed a break from the sport. Thankfully at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, just as he was about to sign the contract, he walked out and realised he couldn't leave the club and the fans he'd spent his entire life with. But two things happened to me through that. The first was I knew whatever else, I shouldn't let myself be so emotionally affected by sport in that way, I was genuinely devastated. Players come and go, clubs are forever. The second was, I always thought from there on in, not about individual players, but the team, and the health of the team. I've been hooked by baseball since 2012. Watched every single game of every season the Sox have played since. Obsessed with the numbers and sport as a whole and Betts was the player (along with Sale at his absolute peak) that I have had the most satisfaction of watching in that spell. So I totally get why it hurt so much, but I found myself actively hoping for his trade, because A, I don't think he was ever staying bar an offer that made no sense in any universe, and B, I have become detached to players emotionally and see them only as small pieces in the health of the organisation. The business like nature of the sport only enforces that for me.

 

I still have my favourites of course, but as much as I loved JBJ, I was delighted we didn't re-sign him. Maybe it's way of protecting yourself against heartbreak. Nothing breaks your heart quite like sport. but I never saw Mookie has a Sox for life. I think he's really polished and says all the right things, but I never saw him wanting to stay. So I was pretty happy when we traded him and even happier now with what we're getting from Verdugo. Players come and go, clubs are forever.

 

 

Edit: Seesh...sorry I didn't set out to write a thesis ha!

Edited April 16, 2021 by Hitch

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hear you. I get the arguments against letting Betts go, I really do. Sometimes change is good, sometimes it's bad. We just have to hope the people in charge get it right more than most. I've mostly been more of a club guy than a player guy. I'm younger than your guys, and came to Baseball late as a Brit. When I was a boy I supported (and still do) the soccer team Liverpool FC. We had a player playing for us (Steven Gerrard) who was one of the best in the world. Imagine how much bigger and wider soccer is as a sport around the world than baseball and then having one of the absolute best in the world at your team. Plus he was a local boy so the affection was X a million. After winning the biggest trophy in European soccer (a one off, massively against the odds - think last year's Sox winning the WS), he decided to leave to join a team that had been bought out by a Russian oil baron and all around Oligarchy. We were around the same age and I had followed his career since he was a kid. It broke my heart, to the point where I thought I needed a break from the sport. Thankfully at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, just as he was about to sign the contract, he walked out and realised he couldn't leave the club and the fans he'd spent his entire life with. But two things happened to me through that. The first was I knew whatever else, I shouldn't let myself be so emotionally affected by sport in that way, I was genuinely devastated. Players come and go, clubs are forever. The second was, I always thought from there on in, not about individual players, but the team, and the health of the team. I've been hooked by baseball since 2012. Watched every single game of every season the Sox have played since. Obsessed with the numbers and sport as a whole and Betts was the player (along with Sale at his absolute peak) that I have had the most satisfaction of watching in that spell. So I totally get why it hurt so much, but I found myself actively hoping for his trade, because A, I don't think he was ever staying bar an offer that made no sense in any universe, and B, I have become detached to players emotionally and see them only as small pieces in the health of the organisation. The business like nature of the sport only enforces that for me.

 

I still have my favourites of course, but as much as I loved JBJ, I was delighted we didn't re-sign him. Maybe it's way of protecting yourself against heartbreak. Nothing breaks your heart quite like sport. but I never saw Mookie has a Sox for life. I think he's really polished and says all the right things, but I never saw him wanting to stay. So I was pretty happy when we traded him and even happier now with what we're getting from Verdugo. Players come and go, clubs are forever.

 

 

Edit: Seesh...sorry I didn't set out to write a thesis ha!

 

Hitch, I enjoyed reading this -- don't apologize (sometimes I type too much, and assume few will read it -- what's the average thread attention-span: three lines?).

 

Your adjusted outlook following sports teams is solid. I also never once got the impression Betts wanted to be a Red Sox forever. But I'm glad for his Boston years; they got my son hooked on baseball... a dynamic, young superstar with a phonetic nickname kids can recite! Who will be the next Nomaaah/Yooooook/Mookie?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know this is the Realistic thread, but MLB.com just updated its Power Rankings... and the Yankees are still NUMBER THREE?!?!?!?!? Are there any realistic Yankee fans that honestly think NY with its losing record is really the best team in the AL and behind only LA and SD right now?

 

The Red Sox moved up to #12... but are still ranked behind three other AL East teams with losing records, and the Twins (also with a losing record), who they just beat 3 of 4 in Minnesota.

[notin]

I know this is the Realistic thread, but MLB.com just updated its Power Rankings... and the Yankees are still NUMBER THREE?!?!?!?!? Are there any realistic Yankee fans that honestly think NY with its losing record is really the best team in the AL and behind only LA and SD right now?

 

The Red Sox moved up to #12... but are still ranked behind three other AL East teams with losing records, and the Twins (also with a losing record), who they just beat 3 of 4 in Minnesota.

 

If you saw those same (re: current) rankings 10 days ago, what would you have thought?

 

 

Now maybe I am wrong, but is part of the purpose of those rankings to determine final standings?

[moonslav59]

I hear you. I get the arguments against letting Betts go, I really do. Sometimes change is good, sometimes it's bad. We just have to hope the people in charge get it right more than most. I've mostly been more of a club guy than a player guy. I'm younger than your guys, and came to Baseball late as a Brit. When I was a boy I supported (and still do) the soccer team Liverpool FC. We had a player playing for us (Steven Gerrard) who was one of the best in the world. Imagine how much bigger and wider soccer is as a sport around the world than baseball and then having one of the absolute best in the world at your team. Plus he was a local boy so the affection was X a million. After winning the biggest trophy in European soccer (a one off, massively against the odds - think last year's Sox winning the WS), he decided to leave to join a team that had been bought out by a Russian oil baron and all around Oligarchy. We were around the same age and I had followed his career since he was a kid. It broke my heart, to the point where I thought I needed a break from the sport. Thankfully at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, just as he was about to sign the contract, he walked out and realised he couldn't leave the club and the fans he'd spent his entire life with. But two things happened to me through that. The first was I knew whatever else, I shouldn't let myself be so emotionally affected by sport in that way, I was genuinely devastated. Players come and go, clubs are forever. The second was, I always thought from there on in, not about individual players, but the team, and the health of the team. I've been hooked by baseball since 2012. Watched every single game of every season the Sox have played since. Obsessed with the numbers and sport as a whole and Betts was the player (along with Sale at his absolute peak) that I have had the most satisfaction of watching in that spell. So I totally get why it hurt so much, but I found myself actively hoping for his trade, because A, I don't think he was ever staying bar an offer that made no sense in any universe, and B, I have become detached to players emotionally and see them only as small pieces in the health of the organisation. The business like nature of the sport only enforces that for me.

 

I still have my favourites of course, but as much as I loved JBJ, I was delighted we didn't re-sign him. Maybe it's way of protecting yourself against heartbreak. Nothing breaks your heart quite like sport. but I never saw Mookie has a Sox for life. I think he's really polished and says all the right things, but I never saw him wanting to stay. So I was pretty happy when we traded him and even happier now with what we're getting from Verdugo. Players come and go, clubs are forever.

 

 

Edit: Seesh...sorry I didn't set out to write a thesis ha!

 

Sometimes, it's nice to just let it all out.

 

Ponder this, while it sucked losing Betts, nobody else we lost since 2018 is anyone worth crying home about.

 

Some us fans were around a team that lost Fisk, Lynn, Burleson, Lee and others in a very short time. It took a long time to get over that period.

[moonslav59]

I know this is the Realistic thread, but MLB.com just updated its Power Rankings... and the Yankees are still NUMBER THREE?!?!?!?!? Are there any realistic Yankee fans that honestly think NY with its losing record is really the best team in the AL and behind only LA and SD right now?

 

The Red Sox moved up to #12... but are still ranked behind three other AL East teams with losing records, and the Twins (also with a losing record), who they just beat 3 of 4 in Minnesota.

 

I'm not a Yankee fan, but I think ranking them 3rd to 5th sounds about right.

 

These rankings are not "standings" or even based on what a team has done, so far. They rank how good teams are, on paper, and the factor in injuries and projected "returns to norms" that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

 

Let me ask you this, would you bet me $1,000- even odds- the Sox finish ahead of the Yanks, this season?

[moonslav59]

Struggling to believe your claim about being 50% accurate with prospects right now...

 

This, from the guy that just recently started noticing Verdugo is pretty good.

 

(Even B-R couldn't convince him: .827 OPS in his age 23-24 seasons combined.)

[notin]

It’s 50/50 that I do. I am just glad that we didn’t take him, and I am not hearing great anticipation from the Mets side of things in NY. I think Fangraphs is behind the curve on this guy.

 

Whether or not people are excited about this guy isn’t the criteria for “busted prospect.” I mean, if your review of him didn’t say “little speed guy” and discuss levels, it could easily have applied Dalbec edited last season. Sure Dalbec did make it to AAA unlike Lee, but Dalbec also didn’t start his MiLB career at 18.

 

And really, I’m not sure “hasn’t made it above AA” is even a criticism any more. AAA doesn’t appear to be a necessary developmental step in most organizations and really for many teams, it’s a place to bury MiLB free agents and 40 man roster surplus. The AAA leagues themselves are usually loaded with former major leaguers who just can’t find jobs at that level any more and the league average age is usually in the 27 to 28 range, unlike AA and below, which are almost exclusively limited to much younger players...

[notin]

This, from the guy that just recently started noticing Verdugo is pretty good.

 

(Even B-R couldn't convince him: .827 OPS in his age 23-24 seasons combined.)

 

You can claim every prospect in the minors will be a bust and you’ll be right about 80- 90% of the time. Especially if you fudge with the definition of a bust.

 

Lee might never make the majors on a regular basis (despite really being just one step away), but that doesn’t make him a “busted prospect.”

 

Now if he gets noticeably worse or fails to improve in 2 to 3 more years, then he will be a busted prospect...

[sk7326]

We've spent big many, many years. It only seems like a splurge, when the splurge does not turn out well- Crawford, Pablo/HRam, Eovaldi/Sale.

 

Even when we reset, we stay near the tax line. We've been a consistent top 5 spending team almost, if not every, year since the early 2000's.

 

The big problems usually arise more from trading away prospects than splurging and re-setting.

 

To me, it makes sense to wait to spend really big, when we feel like we are 1-2 players away from serious ring contention. It's hard not to think we could have extended the window beyond 2018, but it fizzled.

 

Had we signed Scherzer instead of Pablo/HRam, Ben would have stuck around longer- in all liklihood.

 

When the farm is low, and the budget seems full of declining or non productive players, it's time to re-set, regroup, and build back up again. I'm not sure why so many fans get so upset about this.

 

Look, I bget why people think, if we are still a top 3 spending team, why are we one of the top 10 contenders? Well, we over extended ourselves the last cycle, and until we flush out the deadwood salaries and build the farm back up, we have to check our high expectations at the door.

 

 

I know exactly what happened. The last GM was told to trade prospects for the major league club and then was fired when the owner noticed those prospects were traded. The previous GM was sacked after ownership told him to get the biggest names in the FA class and he did.

 

Fans get upset at an owner rolling in revenue crying poor at any point with regards to spending on the club. I get it, even it is a little wrongheaded. The team wants to be the Dodgers - but that requires more patience with a given regime than ownership has necessarily shown.

[Bellhorn04]

Ponder this, while it sucked losing Betts, nobody else we lost since 2018 is anyone worth crying home about.

 

"Crying home about" - not sure if that's you meant to type, but it works.

[Bellhorn04]

Let me ask you this, would you bet me $1,000- even odds- the Sox finish ahead of the Yanks, this season?

 

Vegas would give you odds to bet the Sox finish ahead of the Yanks. If you get decent odds it might be worth a play.

[Bellhorn04]

I know exactly what happened. The last GM was told to trade prospects for the major league club and then was fired when the owner noticed those prospects were traded. The previous GM was sacked after ownership told him to get the biggest names in the FA class and he did.

 

Fans get upset at an owner rolling in revenue crying poor at any point with regards to spending on the club. I get it, even it is a little wrongheaded. The team wants to be the Dodgers - but that requires more patience with a given regime than ownership has necessarily shown.

 

The bottom line is we've been very lucky, winning championships even as Henry keeps changing GM's.

 

Hopefully we'll have some stability now. Supposedly that's exactly why they hired Bloom.

 

Can't knock the 4 titles since Henry took over. That's twice as many as the Yankees and Dodgers combined since then.

 

Nice to see you back here posting BTW.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you saw those same (re: current) rankings 10 days ago, what would you have thought?

 

 

Now maybe I am wrong, but is part of the purpose of those rankings to determine final standings?

 

I think they're hypocritical. Since rankings are updated each week, shouldn't they reflect what's actually happening on the field (and not in their studios)? It's obviously all based on opinion, but begs the question: can a team be considered good only because of its roster, while another is unfairly dismissed for doing good things in games right now? The overrateds and underrateds...

 

If they didn't include won-loss records, the AL East would look like a powerhouse. But we know every AL East team has many flaws... however, Toronto's big IFs aren't pitchers coming off TJ, like NY and Boston. Pearson has a pulled groin, '20 OPS leader Hernandez has Covid, and Springer hasn't even played a game yet.

[Hitch]

Hitch, I enjoyed reading this -- don't apologize (sometimes I type too much, and assume few will read it -- what's the average thread attention-span: three lines?).

 

Your adjusted outlook following sports teams is solid. I also never once got the impression Betts wanted to be a Red Sox forever. But I'm glad for his Boston years; they got my son hooked on baseball... a dynamic, young superstar with a phonetic nickname kids can recite! Who will be the next Nomaaah/Yooooook/Mookie?

 

Yeah same, I'm very glad I got to watch him game in and game out. And even more glad I got to watching live several times. I wouldn't swap that. And yet I'm still glad we moved on as I don't think he's worth his contract long term and I want the team to be successful not Betts. Great if they coincided, but otherwise it's Sox all the way, naturally.

 

 

Ponder this, while it sucked losing Betts, nobody else we lost since 2018 is anyone worth crying home about.

 

Some us fans were around a team that lost Fisk, Lynn, Burleson, Lee and others in a very short time. It took a long time to get over that period.

 

Kinda puts losing Mookie in perspective!

 

Yeah, I'm not missing a single other player we've lost/let go.

[Bellhorn04]

I think they're hypocritical. Since rankings are updated each week, shouldn't they reflect what's actually happening on the field (and not in their studios)? It's obviously all based on opinion, but begs the question: can a team be considered good only because of its roster, while another is unfairly dismissed for doing good things in games right now? The overrateds and underrateds...

 

If they didn't include won-loss records, the AL East would look like a powerhouse. But we know every AL East team has many flaws... however, Toronto's big IFs aren't pitchers coming off TJ, like NY and Boston. Pearson has a pulled groin, '20 OPS leader Hernandez has Covid, and Springer hasn't even played a game yet.

 

Are you trying to suggest the 'Power Rankings' could possibly be meaningless and best simply ignored? Blasphemy!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not a Yankee fan, but I think ranking them 3rd to 5th sounds about right.

 

These rankings are not "standings" or even based on what a team has done, so far. They rank how good teams are, on paper, and the factor in injuries and projected "returns to norms" that may or may not turn out to be accurate.

 

Let me ask you this, would you bet me $1,000- even odds- the Sox finish ahead of the Yanks, this season?

 

Nope. I chose 78 Ws on the Sox preseason poll. This club is improved, but unless a few players have breakout seasons and a few pitchers throw with All-Star consistency, it's going to be tough to sustain a winning combination with so many moving parts over 162 games.

 

But ever since the Yankees replaced their #2, 3 and 4 starting pitchers with hopefuls, I've been saying they are a vastly overrated runaway AL pennant favorite. They didn't address glaring weaknesses at important defensive positions at catcher and shortstop, and now they have Odor at second base, a negative DWAR in 6 of 8 years. Their bullpen is worse without Britton and their offense is all or nothing. Not a 90-win team.

[moonslav59]

I think they're hypocritical. Since rankings are updated each week, shouldn't they reflect what's actually happening on the field (and not in their studios)? It's obviously all based on opinion, but begs the question: can a team be considered good only because of its roster, while another is unfairly dismissed for doing good things in games right now? The overrateds and underrateds...

 

If they didn't include won-loss records, the AL East would look like a powerhouse. But we know every AL East team has many flaws... however, Toronto's big IFs aren't pitchers coming off TJ, like NY and Boston. Pearson has a pulled groin, '20 OPS leader Hernandez has Covid, and Springer hasn't even played a game yet.

 

It's like the pre-season NCAA Football polls that carry strength way into the season- sometimes to the very end.

 

Yes, if a team stumbles or outplays its early ranking - more than once- then they move teams up and down, but rarely does a team move one way or another in a significant way over a short sample size.

[moonslav59]

Nope. I chose 78 Ws on the Sox preseason poll. This club is improved, but unless a few players have breakout seasons and a few pitchers throw with All-Star consistency, it's going to be tough to sustain a winning combination with so many moving parts over 162 games.

 

But ever since the Yankees replaced their #2, 3 and 4 starting pitchers with hopefuls, I've been saying they are a vastly overrated runaway AL pennant favorite. They didn't address glaring weaknesses at important defensive positions at catcher and shortstop, and now they have Odor at second base, a negative DWAR in 6 of 8 years. Their bullpen is worse without Britton and their offense is all or nothing. Not a 90-win team.

 

I'm not ranking the Yanks 3rd to 5th because they are great or have no question marks. I'm ranking them there, because I looked at the other teams and they suck or have even more questions than the Yanks.

[Bellhorn04]

But ever since the Yankees replaced their #2, 3 and 4 starting pitchers with hopefuls, I've been saying they are a vastly overrated runaway AL pennant favorite. They didn't address glaring weaknesses at important defensive positions at catcher and shortstop, and now they have Odor at second base, a negative DWAR in 6 of 8 years. Their bullpen is worse without Britton and their offense is all or nothing. Not a 90-win team.

 

It's still too early to say. Kluber or Taillon might start to click. They're getting back Severino and Britton.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm hopeful that they continue to 'underachieve'.

 

The fact that their offensive 'depth' is Bruce and Odor is making me very happy at the moment.