A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[cp176]

He's making the Mookie trade look better by the day. If one of Downs or Wong comes through and becomes a significant player for us, it will be a win. This kid has got all the tools and the desire to be one of the best.

 

I agree. The older I get, the tougher accepting change becomes. Part of that is the age thing but a good chunk of it is that I am still not convinced that just changing makes things better. I don't think that I will ever get to a point where I can see the logic, financial or otherwise, in losing a player like Betts. That being said, a love of the game and of course the Red Sox is inbred to this guy from rural Maine. I tried not to follow them, but it hasn't worked. It is what I have done every summer since the mid 1950's. There are too many things to like about these guys not to follow them. I'm thinking that Bobby Dalbec has a chance to become another big contributor very soon.

[jad]

I agree. The older I get, the tougher accepting change becomes. Part of that is the age thing but a good chunk of it is that I am still not convinced that just changing makes things better. I don't think that I will ever get to a point where I can see the logic, financial or otherwise, in losing a player like Betts. That being said, a love of the game and of course the Red Sox is inbred to this guy from rural Maine. I tried not to follow them, but it hasn't worked. It is what I have done every summer since the mid 1950's. There are too many things to like about these guys not to follow them. I'm thinking that Bobby Dalbec has a chance to become another big contributor very soon.

 

(Damn! I should have written this: every detail applies!)

[oldtimer]

I agree. The older I get, the tougher accepting change becomes. Part of that is the age thing but a good chunk of it is that I am still not convinced that just changing makes things better. I don't think that I will ever get to a point where I can see the logic, financial or otherwise, in losing a player like Betts. That being said, a love of the game and of course the Red Sox is inbred to this guy from rural Maine. I tried not to follow them, but it hasn't worked. It is what I have done every summer since the mid 1950's. There are too many things to like about these guys not to follow them. I'm thinking that Bobby Dalbec has a chance to become another big contributor very soon.

 

I also have followed the Sox and from the late 1940's. I think Bloom is doing a remarkable job given the circumstances and I guess I am more understanding of the Betts move.

 

 

I believe Bloom was tasked with bringing the Sox back to relevance while staying below the CBT until the Sox have a real chance of competing at the highest level. His plan appears to involve improving the minor league prospects while gradually bringing the team forward. There was no way that taking on 365 million for the next 12 years was consistent with that approach.

 

Bloom has instead added lower cost, but potentially talented players and prospects by trading away Betts and a few lesser players. He is still stuck with the Price, Pedey and Bennintendi contract residuals and an ace level contract to Sale, which for the time being is not contributing to the team. Fully 1/4 of the CBT is wasted.

 

Getting Arroyo, Verdugo, Codero, Renfroe, Hernandez, Gonzalez and a plethora of better pitching has improved the team. Will all the guys we picked up perform well enough to be with the club for more than this year? No, but some will and the budget will grow next year and put us squarely in the race. The surprise is that we appear to be causing some major ripples already this season.

[moonslav59]

He's making the Mookie trade look better by the day. If one of Downs or Wong comes through and becomes a significant player for us, it will be a win. This kid has got all the tools and the desire to be one of the best.

 

Just not spending on Betts could make the deal a win, in the long run- this from a fan that argued we pay Betts $420/14 or something like that.

 

IMO, Verdugo makes the deal a plus, alone.

 

Anything else is gravy.

 

(Imagine we had taken Maeda, instead of Verdugo and Graterol.)

[Bellhorn04]

Just not spending on Betts could make the deal a win, in the long run- this from a fan that argued we pay Betts $420/14 or something like that.

 

IMO, Verdugo makes the deal a plus, alone.

 

Anything else is gravy.

 

(Imagine we had taken Maeda, instead of Verdugo and Graterol.)

 

Bloom wanted young talent only.

 

The Twins did nicely getting Maeda. What's really amazing is how easily the Dodgers could afford to let Maeda go.

[moonslav59]

I also have followed the Sox and from the late 1940's. I think Bloom is doing a remarkable job given the circumstances and I guess I am more understanding of the Betts move.

 

 

I believe Bloom was tasked with bringing the Sox back to relevance while staying below the CBT until the Sox have a real chance of competing at the highest level. His plan appears to involve improving the minor league prospects while gradually bringing the team forward. There was no way that taking on 365 million for the next 12 years was consistent with that approach.

 

Bloom has instead added lower cost, but potentially talented players and prospects by trading away Betts and a few lesser players. He is still stuck with the Price, Pedey and Bennintendi contract residuals and an ace level contract to Sale, which for the time being is not contributing to the team. Fully 1/4 of the CBT is wasted.

 

Getting Arroyo, Verdugo, Codero, Renfroe, Hernandez, Gonzalez and a plethora of better pitching has improved the team. Will all the guys we picked up perform well enough to be with the club for more than this year? No, but some will and the budget will grow next year and put us squarely in the race. The surprise is that we appear to be causing some major ripples already this season.

 

Bloom is taking the right path.

 

When one of our biggest issues was the budget and weak farm, the solution was not to keep throwing money after bad. I'm glad Henry saw that and made the necessary change of leadership- one directed towards rebuilding the farm and finding ways to get better without too many large & long contracts that end up dragging you down- often much sooner than anticipated.

 

To those who felt we should have spent our way out of the mess that began in 2019 and bottomed out in 2020, I hope you see the value in taking the longer view. Sometimes that helps things in the shorter view, too- much sooner than anticipated.

 

It's interesting to look at Bloom's biggest cost off season additions vs his smallest cost ones:

 

Biggest:

$10M Richards 10.29 (some wanted Kluber)

$9M Ottavino 8.10 (we got German, too.)

$7M Kike .563

 

Middle:

$5M Perez 4.50

$3M Renfroe .560

$3M Marwin .554

 

Lowest:

$2.1 Andriese 3.00

$1.5 Sawamura 0.00

$800K Cordero .770

$600K Whitlock 0.00

$600K Bazardo 0.00

 

Plus,last year's low cost additions like Arroyo (.793), Pivetta (3.27) , Plawecki (.665), Arauz and others.

 

(Note: It's a small sample size, and these numbers can flip on a dime.)

[moonslav59]

Bloom wanted young talent only.

 

The Twins did nicely getting Maeda. What's really amazing is how easily the Dodgers could afford to let Maeda go.

 

I get that, and don't disagree, but Maeda was under team control at a ridiculously low cost ($3M x 8 yrs) until 2023. As it turned out, he couldn't have helped in 2020, but still 3 more years might be the best we can expect from Downs before he reaches free agency- and if he's real good, his arb costs will dwarf $3M/yr.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that, and don't disagree, but Maeda was under team control at a ridiculously low cost ($3M x 8 yrs) until 2023. As it turned out, he couldn't have helped in 2020, but still 3 more years might be the best we can expect from Downs before he reaches free agency- and if he's real good, his arb costs will dwarf $3M/yr.

 

Yeah, but we want Downs to be real good, right?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, but we want Downs to be real good, right?

 

I think he will be, but it's more of a gamble than Maeda- and Maeda should be much cheaper.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, but we want Downs to be real good, right?

I am not very high on him, but my accuracy rate is about 50%... which is better than a major league scout.

[sk7326]

Bloom wanted young talent only.

 

The Twins did nicely getting Maeda. What's really amazing is how easily the Dodgers could afford to let Maeda go.

 

Yeah, the Dodgers are obviously the platonic ideal of where a franchise like Boston wants to be, in particular not having the ownership plan whiplash that Henry has shown.

 

Sample sizes are tiny so far - though 159-3 is not a bad season - but the 2013 vibes are fun to have while it lasts.

[sk7326]

I am not very high on him, but my accuracy rate is about 50%... which is better than a major league scout.

 

It seems more likely that Downs ends up being above average to pretty good (with pretty good probability) than, say, one of the three or four best players on Earth.

[notin]

Bloom wanted young talent only.

 

The Twins did nicely getting Maeda. What's really amazing is how easily the Dodgers could afford to let Maeda go.

 

Well, they were getting Mookie Betts

[notin]

I am not very high on him, but my accuracy rate is about 50%... which is better than a major league scout.

 

To b e fair, the scouts have to recommend enough players to fill a draft and, well, most of a minor league system. Fans like us can pick and choose how many or few of these players we then develop opinions on.

 

Most of us probably would not thought much of Mookie Betts back in 2011 either...

[notin]

Bloom wanted young talent only.

 

The Twins did nicely getting Maeda. What's really amazing is how easily the Dodgers could afford to let Maeda go.

 

Really the Dodgers could have parted with any of a number of young pitchers - May, Gray, Gonsolin, Ryan Pepiot, or any of a few others, and Bloom might have accepted. But they chose to keep as many young arms as possible and instead traded away the less controllable one. As it was, they had to get the Twins involved just to get a young arm for Boston, and when that failed, Friedman decided to keep that arm for himself.

 

So if you think Bloom focuses solely on hording young talent, guess where he learned it...

[a700hitter]

To b e fair, the scouts have to recommend enough players to fill a draft and, well, most of a minor league system. Fans like us can pick and choose how many or few of these players we then develop opinions on.

 

Most of us probably would not thought much of Mookie Betts back in 2011 either...

And we don’t get paid. Scouts aren’t as accurate as weathermen.

[notin]

And we don’t get paid. Scouts aren’t as accurate as weathermen.

 

I think I cut more slack than you to anyone whose job is to predict the future, because yes, if that is your job. you will be wrong at some point.

 

I mean, the weatherman is the only guy on the news crew telling you about the future. Try and get tomorrow's scores out of the sports guy, see how well he does. Scouts have to do the same thing, and it gets increasingly difficult when they have to do it with these 14-16yo Dominican kids. I don't even know the criteria to determine whether or not the future of a puberty-ravaged third world child includes playing in the Majors several years down the road...

[moonslav59]

I am not very high on him, but my accuracy rate is about 50%... which is better than a major league scout.

 

You know so much about everything!

Edited April 15, 2021 by moonslav59

[jad]

And we don’t get paid. Scouts aren’t as accurate as weathermen.

 

Ha! You need to revise your comment, old-timer! Modern weather prediction is astounding. It ain't like the old days, as you may remember: "Sunny today. And oh yes, later this morning? Maybe Hurricane Carol will hit ..."

[Nick]

It seems pretty clear that we need more help on pitching side.

 

This team with Mookie in place of Verdugo still does not get us World Series ring. Luxury tax payroll delta is almost $30M between the two. Not to mention $16M for Price the Dodgers are picking up next two years. Looks like Pivetta will give us what Price would have. Thus we get similar production for $16M less.

 

What can we do with that $30M?

 

I don't regret the trade at all. Look at the financial numbers.

 

I guess the biggest question mark going forward is health of Chris Sale.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It seems pretty clear that we need more help on pitching side.

 

This team with Mookie in place of Verdugo still does not get us World Series ring. Luxury tax payroll delta is almost $30M between the two. Not to mention $16M for Price the Dodgers are picking up next two years. Looks like Pivetta will give us what Price would have. What can we do with that $30M?

 

I don't regret the trade at all. Look at the financial numbers.

 

One could argue that, so far, we have not done all that well with the $30M for this year, if you use Richards, Ottavino, Hernandez and Renfroe as the players that total $30M in contracts, but they are short term and still have a lot of time to contribute.

 

I agree with your position, though.

 

Verdugo + $30M a year > Betts.

 

Downs and Wong could be gravy.

[a700hitter]

Ha! You need to revise your comment, old-timer! Modern weather prediction is astounding. It ain't like the old days, as you may remember: "Sunny today. And oh yes, later this morning? Maybe Hurricane Carol will hit ..."

Where I am, they still can’t get snowfall totals right or the timing of precipitation. And they always seem to get the hurricane paths wrong.

[cp176]

Bloom is taking the right path.

 

When one of our biggest issues was the budget and weak farm, the solution was not to keep throwing money after bad. I'm glad Henry saw that and made the necessary change of leadership- one directed towards rebuilding the farm and finding ways to get better without too many large & long contracts that end up dragging you down- often much sooner than anticipated.

 

To those who felt we should have spent our way out of the mess that began in 2019 and bottomed out in 2020, I hope you see the value in taking the longer view. Sometimes that helps things in the shorter view, too- much sooner than anticipated.

 

It's interesting to look at Bloom's biggest cost off season additions vs his smallest cost ones:

 

Biggest:

$10M Richards 10.29 (some wanted Kluber)

$9M Ottavino 8.10 (we got German, too.)

$7M Kike .563

 

Middle:

$5M Perez 4.50

$3M Renfroe .560

$3M Marwin .554

 

Lowest:

$2.1 Andriese 3.00

$1.5 Sawamura 0.00

$800K Cordero .770

$600K Whitlock 0.00

$600K Bazardo 0.00

 

Plus,last year's low cost additions like Arroyo (.793), Pivetta (3.27) , Plawecki (.665), Arauz and others.

 

(Note: It's a small sample size, and these numbers can flip on a dime.)

 

Bloom's path might be different and I hope that it is the right path. Personally I am and have been satisfied with the approach of the various GMs who have had great success here. It probably is satisfying to the fans here who think that their personal baseball philosophies coincide with the current leadership. I believe that it has been proven that there is more than one way to get a job done. In terms of gms, I don't give any thought at all as to who did what before the current guy. He has the job thus I am a fan.

[a700hitter]

You know so much about everything!

If 50% is a lot, I guess that I do know a lot. I know about as much as a coin flip, ... which is still better than the record of most scouts. Edited April 15, 2021 by a700hitter

[Nick]

One could argue that, so far, we have not done all that well with the $30M for this year, if you use Richards, Ottavino, Hernandez and Renfroe as the players that total $30M in contracts, but they are short term and still have a lot of time to contribute.

 

I agree with your position, though.

 

Verdugo + $30M a year > Betts.

 

Downs and Wong could be gravy.

 

I think we're on the same page. Had Sale been 100% healthy, the spending mix probably would have been different. (ie no Richards)

 

How sick would it be to sign an 'ace' and extend E Rod along with Chris Sale pitching to his norm? Ace, Sale, E Rod, Eovaldi and Whitlock/Hoouck as starters?

 

Richards/Perez money can easily cover E Rod extension. Pedey money can cover much of arbitration raises. Price money will be gone in one year so that can go towards paying "Ace".

[a700hitter]

I think I cut more slack than you to anyone whose job is to predict the future, because yes, if that is your job. you will be wrong at some point.

 

I mean, the weatherman is the only guy on the news crew telling you about the future. Try and get tomorrow's scores out of the sports guy, see how well he does. Scouts have to do the same thing, and it gets increasingly difficult when they have to do it with these 14-16yo Dominican kids. I don't even know the criteria to determine whether or not the future of a puberty-ravaged third world child includes playing in the Majors several years down the road...

Hey, I didn’t say that it was easy. Like anything else, there are good scouts and bad scouts, but like everything else in baseball, everyone piggybacks on everyone else. Everything from minor league scouting reports to MLB pre-draft ratings is always presented as a consensus. You rarely have outliers in these evaluations. I don’t take seriously these consensus evaluations. The good scouts aren’t going to share their special insights with the hacks.

[notin]

Where I am, they still can’t get snowfall totals right or the timing of precipitation. And they always seem to get the hurricane paths wrong.

 

Well, the science behind hurricane paths is pretty much a mystery. But as most of science is "today's best educated guess," some slack needs to be given. And like all of science, the accuracy improves with more and more data over time, allowing for better and better theories and guesses. But that doesn't mean predicting the future will ever be a perfect art form, whether it is in meteorology or scouting or stock market analysis or just using a Ouija board...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, the science behind hurricane paths is pretty much a mystery. But as most of science is "today's best educated guess," some slack needs to be given. And like all of science, the accuracy improves with more and more data over time, allowing for better and better theories and guesses. But that doesn't mean predicting the future will ever be a perfect art form, whether it is in meteorology or scouting or stock market analysis or just using a Ouija board...

 

The weather forecasts here are bang on most of the time. They get some storms wrong, but I figure that has a lot to do with us sitting on the Atlantic Ocean...

[sk7326]

Bloom's path might be different and I hope that it is the right path. Personally I am and have been satisfied with the approach of the various GMs who have had great success here. It probably is satisfying to the fans here who think that their personal baseball philosophies coincide with the current leadership. I believe that it has been proven that there is more than one way to get a job done. In terms of gms, I don't give any thought at all as to who did what before the current guy. He has the job thus I am a fan.

 

Ultimately, it's ownership's path - and ownership has not always been consistent in the path chosen. Obviously the platonic ideal is the Dodgers (and I guess to a lesser extent the Yankees) - a team that can do BOTH the "team with big money" stuff and the player development stuff well.

 

It's when ownership changes its mind rashly that I get annoyed. They definitely have had extremely thin skin.

[iortiz]

Absolutely brilliant get by Bloom.

 

if this pan out all year long and moving forward (seems so), could be easily the major steal of the history of the Boston Red Sox lol