Ottavino dealt to Sox

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1353777621956501507

 

Interesting video of Ottavino giving up bombs last year.

[mvp 78]

The pitching prospect we're getting is Frank German. Throws hard apparently, up to 98.

 

Fangraph prospect notes from last year:

 

German was a solid middle-round college pitching prospect going into the 2018 draft, with most clubs treating him as a sixth to eighth round talent who could possibly be a target for the 11th-12th rounds and a $125,000 bonus, as cheap senior signs fill in the latter stages of the top 10 rounds. Then German (Dominican-born and whose name is pronounced like the European country) had one of the latest pre-draft velo spikes possible, suddenly hitting 95 mph during the Atlantic Sun conference tournament in his final college game just two weeks before Day One. Miles per hour are a dime a dozen these days, but German had the athleticism and arm action of a starter and had put on about 15 pounds in the previous 12 months, so some thought this could be coming. Clubs who had scouts at that final start shot him up their boards, and the Yankees jumped to the front of the line to take him in the fourth round.

 

The velo spike held throughout German’s first summer in pro ball — he sat 92-95 and touched 97 mph in the fall instructional league, and put on about 10 additional pounds after signing — and then moved yet another tick last year — 93-96, touch 98 — even though German is still starting. The length of his arm action and the gap between where his secondary stuff is (German’s college breaking ball was scrapped, and his changeup is now his best secondary) and what it’d have to be to play several times through the order means German is likely a fastball-heavy reliever.

[mvp 78]

Becomes Sox 18th ranked prospect?

[mvp 78]

@RedSox

The #RedSox today acquired RHPs Adam Ottavino and Frank German and cash considerations from the New York Yankees, in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

[a700hitter]

The headline should be that the Yankees transfer 2 players and their contracts to the Red Sox. There was no trade.

[bkzwhitestrican]

I saw German pitch a couple of times and I liked what I saw. Obviously good velocity, attacks the zone, and had decent command. He had a down year last season (or whenever they last played baseball) because of a shoulder issue, but I think he has the floor of a middle relief guy, and could potentially be a 4th or 5th starter if he develops another pitch, or a back-end reliever.

[Kimmi]

Not sure what’s coming back. Weird!

 

This one caught me by surprise. Not on the radar at all.

[Kimmi]

Rumor is Sox are picking up most if not all of the contract. If the Yanks shed $9mil for German, that’s a f***ing steal. Yanks were about $5-6 mil from the Lux tax line after getting Taillon. Shedding Ottavino should sneak us under $12-$15 mil. Yanks are expected to re-sign Gardner. Wondering if we take the savings and get another reliever or hold a cushion for a mid season acquisition.

 

Stop. This move is hardly a steal for the Yankees. It's a win-win. Both sides got what they wanted and needed.

[Bellhorn04]

This one caught me by surprise. Not on the radar at all.

 

I didn't like it at first, but this German kid seems like a decent prospect, so I like it now.

[Kimmi]

1. Sox needed a closer.

2. Sox needed more farm arms.

3. Yankees wanted to save $$$.

 

Seems like a good move for both teams? I'd probably rather have Ottavino than the guys left in FA.

 

Exactly.

[Bellhorn04]

Stop. This move is hardly a steal for the Yankees. It's a win-win. Both sides got what they wanted and needed.

 

When he starts swearing a lot like this, it's a bad sign.

[Kimmi]

375 BABIP

3.52 FIP

 

Per SIERA and xFIP, he was better in 2020 than 2019.

 

Stop with the advanced stats. You're getting me excited.

 

Also, his BABIP last year was .354 with a 66.2% LOB.

 

He won't be as good as his 2019 ERA indicated, but he won't be as bad as his 2020 ERA.

[Kimmi]

I didn't like it at first, but this German kid seems like a decent prospect, so I like it now.

 

I would have rather used the money on another starter, but outside of that, I have no problems with the move in terms of what we are giving up and what we are getting in return.

 

Three moves in as many days. What else does Bloom have up his sleeve?

[Kimmi]

When he starts swearing a lot like this, it's a bad sign.

 

LOL Jacko tends to get a little excited.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stop. This move is hardly a steal for the Yankees. It's a win-win. Both sides got what they wanted and needed.

 

The Yanks gave up a rattled reliever and a prospect who is likely to be a pen arm and is buried to get the financial cushion to bring a team leader back and have some extra funds for a mid season acquisition. When the Yanks make that mid season move to address whatever their needs become, you can thank Bloom for helping them out.

 

Now the Sox got something here, but it’s only a reasonably fair deal if Ottavino performs in Boston and can be handed off for a good return.

[notin]

The Yanks gave up a rattled reliever and a prospect who is likely to be a pen arm and is buried to get the financial cushion to bring a team leader back and have some extra funds for a mid season acquisition. When the Yanks make that mid season move to address whatever their needs become, you can thank Bloom for helping them out.

 

Now the Sox got something here, but it’s only a reasonably fair deal if Ottavino performs in Boston and can be handed off for a good return.

 

Rattled reliever?

 

3/4 of his ER against came in 2 outings, and he posted 25/9 K/BB numbers in 22 innings.

 

What’s he like when he’s not rattled?

[mvp 78]

Stop with the advanced stats. You're getting me excited.

 

Also, his BABIP last year was .354 with a 66.2% LOB.

 

He won't be as good as his 2019 ERA indicated, but he won't be as bad as his 2020 ERA.

 

Per Fangraphs, BABIP is 375

[jacksonianmarch]

Rattled reliever?

 

3/4 of his ER against came in 2 outings, and he posted 25/9 K/BB numbers in 22 innings.

 

What’s he like when he’s not rattled?

 

Post season career (small sample size clearly) 7.2IP, 6ER. When the lights shine the brightest, he shrank the smallest

[Bellhorn04]

Post season career (small sample size clearly) 7.2IP, 6ER. When the lights shine the brightest, he shrank the smallest

 

And your closer has given up 3 devastating home runs in the last 5 postseasons (one of which was survived by the Cubs).

 

No other closer in history has done anything like this.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

And your closer has given up 3 devastating home runs in the last 5 postseasons (one of which was survived by the Cubs).

 

No other closer in history has done anything like this.

 

Honestly, if we get to accept small sample sizes, did you know Mariano Rivera only pitched in one World Series game 7 of his entire career? And how did that go? 2/3 IP and 3 runs allowed. Sure they were unearned, but it was his error.

 

So I guess when the lights got their true brightest, he faded too. Now someone get him outta the Hall!!!

[notin]

Post season career (small sample size clearly) 7.2IP, 6ER. When the lights shine the brightest, he shrank the smallest

 

Translation: Not wearing pinstripes. Must be insulted.

 

 

This would come across way cooler if I could type in some 1970's style sci fi robot voice...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Honestly, if we get to accept small sample sizes, did you know Mariano Rivera only pitched in one World Series game 7 of his entire career? And how did that go? 2/3 IP and 3 runs allowed. Sure they were unearned, but it was his error.

 

So I guess when the lights got their true brightest, he faded too. Now someone get him outta the Hall!!!

 

I've had arguments with a pitcher before that if he makes an error, then the runs he gives up because of that are on him. Technically, they're unearned, but "pitcher" is a position -- and if someone on the mound is a crappy fielder, smack-dab in the middle of the damn diamond, then he's just not as good at the pitcher position... especially a guy who can't throw to a base; accurate throwing is supposed to be his job.

[notin]

I've had arguments with a pitcher before that if he makes an error, then the runs he gives up because of that are on him. Technically, they're unearned, but "pitcher" is a position -- and if someone on the mound is a crappy fielder, smack-dab in the middle of the damn diamond, then he's just not as good at the pitcher position... especially a guy who can't throw to a base; accurate throwing is supposed to be his job.

 

Technically, that they are called "earned runs" because the offense earned them. So while I get your point, even if the pitcher made the error, the offense did not "earn" them...

[jacksonianmarch]

Translation: Not wearing pinstripes. Must be insulted.

 

 

This would come across way cooler if I could type in some 1970's style sci fi robot voice...

 

Ottavino is a hard throwing pitcher with stupid movement on his pitches. He just seemed to come up small from the Springer homerun forward. Yes, last year he gave up 6ER in a 0IP performance and it skewed his stats. But you also cannot just remove that game, a game we were winning that he turned into a loss on his own. Most of the time a reliever gives up a run or two and he gets the blown save, yet it was more a collective effort. In that one game, Ottavino bombed the team's performance and cost us a game. Removing that true -1WAR game is revisionist.

 

Do I think Ottavino is a 5ERA reliever in Boston? No I do not. Do I think he will do far better on a team that isn't going anywhere? Yes I do. Do I think he will do far better in Boston than he would have in NY? Yes I do. Ottavino moving to Boston will be a boon for the sox for sure. I doubt he justifies his contract, but getting a prospect (albeit a future reliever) and then having the chance to dump off Ottavino in July for a good prospect haul is the upside here and I think Bloom adds to his prospect cache in doing so. I see the benefit for the sox, clearly, but it is far further down the road. For the Yanks, the sox give them the flexibility to add one of their team leaders back in Gardner AND now have the cushion to make an addition in July. If that addition leads to a World Series, then this deal could be the impetus to #28, which I think would stick in your craws a bit more than the prospects of the potential future production of the kids you get back

[notin]

Ottavino is a hard throwing pitcher with stupid movement on his pitches. He just seemed to come up small from the Springer homerun forward. Yes, last year he gave up 6ER in a 0IP performance and it skewed his stats. But you also cannot just remove that game, a game we were winning that he turned into a loss on his own. Most of the time a reliever gives up a run or two and he gets the blown save, yet it was more a collective effort. In that one game, Ottavino bombed the team's performance and cost us a game. Removing that true -1WAR game is revisionist.

 

Do I think Ottavino is a 5ERA reliever in Boston? No I do not. Do I think he will do far better on a team that isn't going anywhere? Yes I do. Do I think he will do far better in Boston than he would have in NY? Yes I do. Ottavino moving to Boston will be a boon for the sox for sure. I doubt he justifies his contract, but getting a prospect (albeit a future reliever) and then having the chance to dump off Ottavino in July for a good prospect haul is the upside here and I think Bloom adds to his prospect cache in doing so. I see the benefit for the sox, clearly, but it is far further down the road. For the Yanks, the sox give them the flexibility to add one of their team leaders back in Gardner AND now have the cushion to make an addition in July. If that addition leads to a World Series, then this deal could be the impetus to #28, which I think would stick in your craws a bit more than the prospects of the potential future production of the kids you get back

 

You can make this argument all you want about "rattled" Ottavino. But his FIP was right there with his 2019 numbers, and he had a higher K/9 and lower BB/9 than in 2019.

 

It's not about "ignoring" that one outing that resulted in a loss as it is keeping it in context. He threw in 22 games, and in 20 of them allowed 1 ER or less. He actually has a good shortened season that looks a lot worse because of one bad outing that might have come on a day when maybe he did not feel well, or was distracted, or just was a little sore. That stuff happens. And when you pitch in 60-70 games, a day or two like that gets more easily absorbed into the rest of the season.

 

Now if you want the downside of the 2020 Ottavino as compared to the 2019 version, his FBv was down almost 1 mph. (This might not mean a thing, as a lot of pitchers around the league had similar issues, likely due to on/off ST). His Contact % was up. His Swinging Strikes were down. And in both years, his FIP was in he 3.40-3.55 range, while his ERA's were 1.90 and 5.89.

 

Still, he is not some "rattled pitcher" who needed to be dumped. He is a good pitcher who will probably settle into the mean of those two seasons, and that means he will largely pitch effectively. He was a good add for the Red Sox and right now represents a loss for the Yankees, although they are more prepared to absorb it, and presumably did so with other moves in mind. But if you think someone like Loasigia is going to merely step in and fill his void, you best hope it is not a very big void...

[moonslav59]

I actually suggested the Sox sign Ottavino years ago, when he was a FA.

 

I'm not going to let small sample sizes from 2020 or playoffs affect my opinion of him. Does it raise some concerns? Yes, barely, but he can easily do better than Rosenthal, Hand, Yates, Colome and Treinen.

[notin]

I actually suggested the Sox sign Ottavino years ago, when he was a FA.

 

I'm not going to let small sample sizes from 2020 or playoffs affect my opinion of him. Does it raise some concerns? Yes, barely, but he can easily do better than Rosenthal, Hand, Yates, Colome and Treinen.

 

I think we all wanted him in then. I was pretty disappointed he went to the Yankees of all teams.

 

Of course, I have also launched mini-campaigns for all those other relievers except Treinen. Never liked Treinen. He knows why...

[Thunder]

I actually suggested the Sox sign Ottavino years ago, when he was a FA.

 

I'm not going to let small sample sizes from 2020 or playoffs affect my opinion of him. Does it raise some concerns? Yes, barely, but he can easily do better than Rosenthal, Hand, Yates, Colome and Treinen.

 

I wholeheartedly agree. 3.53 ERA in his career. Last year's sample size isn't large enough to quantify in my opinion. Pitching stats all come down to innings pitched. As a reliever in a 60 game season, you're not going to eat up a lot of innings. 60 games puts us at around the end of May or start of June in a 162 game season. You could have a bad April and be really solid out of the pen the rest of the year, but because pitching stats are all about IP, your ERA, WHIP and K/BB per 9 will all be ridiculously high. I think he'll be just fine for us. We need any help we can get in the bullpen, and pitching in general

[mvp 78]

Ottavino is a hard throwing pitcher with stupid movement on his pitches. He just seemed to come up small from the Springer homerun forward. Yes, last year he gave up 6ER in a 0IP performance and it skewed his stats. But you also cannot just remove that game, a game we were winning that he turned into a loss on his own. Most of the time a reliever gives up a run or two and he gets the blown save, yet it was more a collective effort. In that one game, Ottavino bombed the team's performance and cost us a game. Removing that true -1WAR game is revisionist.

 

Do I think Ottavino is a 5ERA reliever in Boston? No I do not. Do I think he will do far better on a team that isn't going anywhere? Yes I do. Do I think he will do far better in Boston than he would have in NY? Yes I do. Ottavino moving to Boston will be a boon for the sox for sure. I doubt he justifies his contract, but getting a prospect (albeit a future reliever) and then having the chance to dump off Ottavino in July for a good prospect haul is the upside here and I think Bloom adds to his prospect cache in doing so. I see the benefit for the sox, clearly, but it is far further down the road. For the Yanks, the sox give them the flexibility to add one of their team leaders back in Gardner AND now have the cushion to make an addition in July. If that addition leads to a World Series, then this deal could be the impetus to #28, which I think would stick in your craws a bit more than the prospects of the potential future production of the kids you get back

 

It's true. If the season were 162 games long, he'd surely have 2 more appearances where he'd give up 6 runs in 0 innings!

[mvp 78]

Also, if the Sox aren't a lock for the playoffs, who cares if he comes up small in big moments? There won't be any!