2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

I never thought of Vaz as being top 10. His defense and handling of the staff more than offsets his good (catcher) bat.

 

Per fWAR

16-20, he's 9th ranked C

17-20, he's 6th

18-20, he's 3rd

19-20, he's 3rd

 

I think his growing pains at the start of his career affect your outlook on his profile.

[notin]

MLB TV doesn't even rank Vazquez in the Top Ten Catchers Now. He not indispensable... while we're rebuilding.

 

I was more for trading Vazquez when the catching market was a bit more robust with replacements, but once Zunino and McCann signed, it thinned out considerably. Trading Vazquez likely means Plawecki becomes the primary starter...

[notin]

Per fWAR

16-20, he's 9th ranked C

17-20, he's 6th

18-20, he's 3rd

19-20, he's 3rd

 

I think his growing pains at the start of his career affect your outlook on his profile.

 

Especially considering he did not play at all in 2015 due to his TJ surgery. So 2016 came after a long hiatus...

[moonslav59]

Per fWAR

16-20, he's 9th ranked C

17-20, he's 6th

18-20, he's 3rd

19-20, he's 3rd

 

I think his growing pains at the start of his career affect your outlook on his profile.

 

Not at all, and I've never said WAR is perfect.

 

As I've said numerous times, I dislike how Vaz handles the staff, and the numbers show our pitchers (one by one) did way better with Leon than Vaz.

 

Many of the sample sizes are small and even tiny, but when pitcher after pitcher after pitcher after pitcher almost all do much better with our back-up catcher, I believe there is reason for it.

 

Even in 2020, with all small sample sizes, I looked at the 7 pitchers with the most PAs (70+ PAs) against with Vaz. Six of the 7 had better OPS against with Plawecki than with Vaz.

 

The SSS all added up show a clear and present trend.

 

It's not that I dislike Vaz, but I think his 2 years of team control and over-valued trade stock value make him the prime candidate for trade, despite us not having anyone to take his place.

 

My trade suggestion involving us getting Stallings, addresses that issue, but signing someone like Mathis or Molina would too, and neither will cost much money.

[mvp 78]

Especially considering he did not play at all in 2015 due to his TJ surgery. So 2016 came after a long hiatus...

 

He really has blossomed the past 3 years. Maybe he's at his peak now and will be much less of a player in 3-4 years, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a better catcher for the next few years.

[moonslav59]

I was more for trading Vazquez when the catching market was a bit more robust with replacements, but once Zunino and McCann signed, it thinned out considerably. Trading Vazquez likely means Plawecki becomes the primary starter...

 

Not if a catcher comes in return- like Stallings.

[mvp 78]

I was more for trading Vazquez when the catching market was a bit more robust with replacements, but once Zunino and McCann signed, it thinned out considerably. Trading Vazquez likely means Plawecki becomes the primary starter...

 

Well, if Plawecki could have a 400 BABIP again...

[notin]

He really has blossomed the past 3 years. Maybe he's at his peak now and will be much less of a player in 3-4 years, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a better catcher for the next few years.

 

I know the Sox were discussing him with Tampa at one point. but honestly, those discussions might have been less eventful than we realize

 

Neander "How about Vazquez? We need a good catcher,"

Bloom "Sure. How about you send me back your best pitching prospects and your mother's phone number? I just lost it."

 

I mean, technically, that is a discussion about trading Vazquez...

[mvp 78]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2020&team=&min=q&sort=4,1

 

Per statcast data, he's the 3rd best Catcher at framing.

 

His pop time is average.

 

People complain that he throws the ball around too much, but he hasn't had more than one throwing error in a season since 2017.

 

However, there aren't many stat geeks that think CERA has much value at all.

[mvp 78]

I know the Sox were discussing him with Tampa at one point. but honestly, those discussions might have been less eventful than we realize

 

Neander "How about Vazquez? We need a good catcher,"

Bloom "Sure. How about you send me back your best pitching prospects and your mother's phone number? I just lost it."

 

I mean, technically, that is a discussion about trading Vazquez...

 

Bloom should listen to discussions on trading ANYONE.

[notin]

Bloom should listen to discussions on trading ANYONE.

 

I am not saying he isn't. Just saying I have no idea how in-depth any of the Vazquez/Tampa rumors were.

[mvp 78]

@middlebrooks

I honestly think the Red Sox can bring back several familiar faces to fill holes in the roster. Porcello, Perez, Brockstar, JBJ, Mitchy Two Bags? How would the fan base feel about that?

 

Well, we'd take just about anything at this point. Brock Holt would have to be a MiLB deal though.

[notin]

@middlebrooks

I honestly think the Red Sox can bring back several familiar faces to fill holes in the roster. Porcello, Perez, Brockstar, JBJ, Mitchy Two Bags? How would the fan base feel about that?

 

Well, we'd take just about anything at this point. Brock Holt would have to be a MiLB deal though.

 

So think this is a subtle campaign for his own return?

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Corey Kluber threw his fourth bullpen of his rehab in Palm Beach Gardens, FL, earlier today, this one in front of scouts/evaluators from what one person present estimated at about 25 teams.

[mvp 78]

So think this is a subtle campaign for his own return?

 

Maybe Jenny's?

[moonslav59]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2020&team=&min=q&sort=4,1

 

Per statcast data, he's the 3rd best Catcher at framing.

 

His pop time is average.

 

People complain that he throws the ball around too much, but he hasn't had more than one throwing error in a season since 2017.

 

However, there aren't many stat geeks that think CERA has much value at all.

 

Again, CERA had no value at all, when comparing Vaz to a catcher on another team. That is why no stat geek uses it.

 

It has very limited and specific value, when you compare how specific pitchers do, one by one, with catcher A v catcher B on their own team. Of course, other factors come into play, like maybe Price faced a mighty line-up when Vaz caught him vs when Leon did, but that can be said about any stat.

 

The other big criticism is sample sizes, and it is a valid concern. Since several pitchers have one catcher catch them most of the time or even nearly all the time, many sample sizes comps are widely skewed. Also, some catchers catch much better pitchers than the other, so looking at just team CERA each year is near useless.

 

 

Only when used correctly, and who does the research, can CERA have any meaning.

 

Who does the reseacrh?

 

I do, and I did. Here is what I found, in general, and I have studied this since the days of Varitek and Posada.

 

1. In cases where both catchers caught the same pitcher during the same year AND over several years for similar sample sizes, Vaz got less with nearly every single pitcher. Only ERod did slightly better with Vaz (career 3.98 v 4.05.

 

2. In cases where one catcher had a significantly smaller sample size than the other, the trend still showed Vaz got worse or much worse from each pitcher.

 

3. In cases where bot catchers has small sample sizes, the same was true.

 

Maybe, each case, one-by-one, may look too small or unbalanced to make a determination, but when you look at all the comps- big and small- together and over 90% all show each pitcher does better or way, way, way better with the back-up catcher, something must be wrong with Vaz. Despite having more time with Vaz, they did better with Leon. Having near equal time- they did better with Leon. Having more time with Leon- they did better with Leon.

 

Just about every single pitcher with somewhat significant sample sizes or more with both catcher did better with Vaz's back-up.

[Nick]

What's our lineup and starters if season started tomorrow? Who pitches the first series?

[notin]

What's our lineup and starters if season started tomorrow? Who pitches the first series?

 

It's ok with me if you want to...

[mvp 78]

What's our lineup and starters if season started tomorrow? Who pitches the first series?

 

ERod

 

Verdugo CF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

JD DH

Vazquez C

Renfroe RF

Dalbec 1B

Beni LF

Arroyo 2B

[mvp 78]

SP:

ERod

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Houck

Andriese

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi

 

Benintendi LF

Verdugo CF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

JD DH

Dalbec 1B

Renfroe RF

Vazquez C

Chavis 2B

[jacksonianmarch]

You’d want defense to groom your staff. You don’t want to have Chavis and his negative WaR and absolutely horrendous 2b defense screwing with your staff

[moonslav59]

You’d want defense to groom your staff. You don’t want to have Chavis and his negative WaR and absolutely horrendous 2b defense screwing with your staff

 

We've given up on D.

 

Hopefully, we add some top defenders, but as of now, only Verdugo looks like a sure plus.

[jacksonianmarch]

We've given up on D.

 

Hopefully, we add some top defenders, but as of now, only Verdugo looks like a sure plus.

 

and moving him to the most demanding OF position may mitigate that. For his career, Verdugo is a plus LFer, below average RFer and minus CFer defensively. I wonder if it has anything to do with his arm, but playing him in CF does you no defensive favors

[kenmeister]

Eovaldi

 

Benintendi LF

Verdugo CF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

JD DH

Dalbec 1B

Renfroe RF

Vazquez C

Chavis 2B

 

I agree with mvp 78 in that Benitendi's lead off days are probably done until he proves himself again.

[jacksonianmarch]

There’s almost no point to throwing any sort of prediction out there with Beni in it. When all the pundits say he’s getting moved, they’re usually right.

 

I also keep hearing the baseball pundits talking about why they’re selling low. Bloom may feel his body type won’t age well. His drop in foot speed over three years is alarming for a 24-26 year old. I keep hearing the Marlins as a destination. They’ve got some young pitching. I’ll be intrigued as to who gets fleeced by Bloom this time around

[notin]

You’d want defense to groom your staff. You don’t want to have Chavis and his negative WaR and absolutely horrendous 2b defense screwing with your staff

 

Chavis has played all of 421 innings at 2B, or roughly a little over a quarter of a season, spread out over 2 years. It seems a tad early to call his defense there "horrific"....

[moonslav59]

There’s almost no point to throwing any sort of prediction out there with Beni in it. When all the pundits say he’s getting moved, they’re usually right.

 

 

It's not a prediction.

 

Someone asked what the lineup would be tomorrow.

 

As of now, Beni is here.

[moonslav59]

Chavis has played all of 421 innings at 2B, or roughly a little over a quarter of a season, spread out over 2 years. It seems a tad early to call his defense there "horrific"....

 

The early metrics were not all that bad on Chavis, although the sample sizes were small and scattered.

 

He had a 0.0 UZR/150 in 2019 and has a career -1 DRS at 2B. Nobody is saying he is great or even good, on defense, but he surprised me by not looking all that bad.

 

Arroyo had 193 innings at 2B at the ML level and has a +2 DRS and career +7.7 UZR/150.

[Bellhorn04]

There’s almost no point to throwing any sort of prediction out there with Beni in it. When all the pundits say he’s getting moved, they’re usually right.

 

I also keep hearing the baseball pundits talking about why they’re selling low. Bloom may feel his body type won’t age well. His drop in foot speed over three years is alarming for a 24-26 year old. I keep hearing the Marlins as a destination. They’ve got some young pitching. I’ll be intrigued as to who gets fleeced by Bloom this time around

 

FWIW I heard the Marlins are out.