2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

Also, markedly improve the team....

 

Ha, yes, I wouldn't be complaining.

[a700hitter]

@alexspeier

Tomoyuki Sugano has until 5pm to sign with an MLB team, but it won't be with the Red Sox, who appear out on the NPB star. Could Jake Odorizzi fit their plans?

Homebody. Good for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nobody was beating what Sugano got. 5 years, $40 mil with three opt outs? In the covid depressed American market? He leveraged America and got himself a great deal in Japan. How very American of him!

[moonslav59]

And some teams will have more payroll flexibility than the Red Sox.

 

Way less teams, and some of the the teams that will end up spending more than the Sox have already spent much of their budget and may have less left over than the Sox do at this moment.

 

I would be surprised if 5 teams spend more than the Sox fro this day forward, and that includes whoever signs Bauer, Springer and a couple others.

[moonslav59]

True, but if we were to sign Odorizzi, Kluber and Hand or Bradley, that would put a big dent in the budget room.

 

I consider all the players you mentioned part of the wait and sign bargain signings of decent to good players. Add low cost E Hernandez and a CF'er and we'll have spent more than 80% of the teams from today onward.

[mvp 78]

And some teams will have more payroll flexibility than the Red Sox.

 

How so? Sox were under the cap last year. They could legitimately spend as much as theoretically possible this offseason. This isn't a small market team trying to find spare change in their couch. If Henry told Bloom he wanted to win this year, they could sign Bauer, Springer and whoever else they wanted.

[moonslav59]

How so? Sox were under the cap last year. They could legitimately spend as much as theoretically possible this offseason. This isn't a small market team trying to find spare change in their couch. If Henry told Bloom he wanted to win this year, they could sign Bauer, Springer and whoever else they wanted.

 

Good point, but the assumption is no big deals are on the agenda, and we likely will not go way over the luxury tax line. This still gives us way more payroll flexibility than the vast majority of ML teams, IMO.

 

I do think, when all is said and done, we will be one of this winter's top spending 5 teams. I am certain we will be from today and onward. It just won't me big flashy signings, unless you think Odorizzi, Kluber or Hand are flashy.

Edited January 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Astros-to-sign-Ryne-Stanek

[Bellhorn04]

I consider all the players you mentioned part of the wait and sign bargain signings of decent to good players. Add low cost E Hernandez and a CF'er and we'll have spent more than 80% of the teams from today onward.

 

Kluber is reportedly going to have a lot of teams watching his workout.

 

Assuming he looks good enough, I would think we're talking about an auction situation. We just don't know exactly how high teams will be willing to bid.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good point, but the assumption is no big deals are on the agenda, and we likely will not go way over the luxury tax line. This still gives us way more payroll flexibility than the vast majority of ML teams, IMO.

 

I do think, when all is said and done, we will be one of this winter's top spending 5 teams. I am certain we will be from today and onward. It just won't me big flashy signings, unless you think Odorizzi, Kluber or Hand are flashy.

 

Until Bloom actually signs a regular who hit better than .156 last year or a pitcher who doesn't have a career losing record, I am uncertain.

[mvp 78]

Good point, but the assumption is no big deals are on the agenda, and we likely will not go way over the luxury tax line. This still gives us way more payroll flexibility than the vast majority of ML teams, IMO.

 

I do think, when all is said and done, we will be one of this winter's top spending 5 teams. I am certain we will be from today and onward. It just won't me big flashy signings, unless you think Odorizzi, Kluber or Hand are flashy.

 

I think the size of Henry's bank account gives us the flexibility. Now that they cleared the threshold last year, they can really do whatever they want. That's true payroll flexibility IMO.

[notin]

I think the size of Henry's bank account gives us the flexibility. Now that they cleared the threshold last year, they can really do whatever they want. That's true payroll flexibility IMO.

 

Exactly.

 

The notion that they won’t go big because they don’t think they can compete this year is folly. You have to get the player(s) you want when they’re available. And unless you only sign them to 1 year deals, they’ll be around for 2021 as well...

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly.

 

The notion that they won’t go big because they don’t think they can compete this year is folly. You have to get the player(s) you want when they’re available. And unless you only sign them to 1 year deals, they’ll be around for 2021 as well...

 

Or maybe even 2022.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Exactly.

 

The notion that they won’t go big because they don’t think they can compete this year is folly. You have to get the player(s) you want when they’re available. And unless you only sign them to 1 year deals, they’ll be around for 2021 as well...

 

The Red Sox need really good players in many areas to become really good again. For optimistic realists hoping for our 2020 doormats to improve to mediocrity in another pandemic season, the timing will be much more primed for a splash a year from now.

 

Now that Lindor is and most likely will be a Met for awhile, the best position players available this year and next year, at least -- in free agency (that will only cost money and draft picks, but not actual trade bait) -- are Story, Correa and Baez. Few clubs will be in a better position than Boston to be able and hopefully willing to add major talent.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox need really good players in many areas to become really good again. For optimistic realists hoping for our 2020 doormats to improve to mediocrity in another pandemic season, the timing will be much more primed for a splash a year from now.

 

They can be relevant in 2021, seriously.

 

Sign Kluber, Odorizzi, Hand or Bradley, and the best bargains for CF (maybe Pillar) and 2B.

 

Plus a few other smart discount acquisitions.

 

Still need a lot to go right, but it's certainly in the realm of possibility.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They can be relevant in 2021, seriously.

 

Sign Kluber, Odorizzi, Hand or Bradley, and the best bargains for CF (maybe Pillar) and 2B.

 

Plus a few other smart discount acquisitions.

 

Still need a lot to go right, but it's certainly in the realm of possibility.

 

I like your adjective relevant. It'd be great if the MLB expands the playoff tourney again, and the Sox stay in the hunt all summer. But even if they add a couple starting pitchers that were injured last year, let's be honest -- the entire rotation would still be in question (and more than most staffs).

 

Serious question: what would be more surprising in '21 -- a playoff contender or another cellar dweller? I'm rationally thinking somewhere in between. Posters can say it's still early as much as the Sox did in '19 (until the trade deadline died), but Spring Training is a month away... maybe.

[Bellhorn04]

I like your adjective relevant. It'd be great if the MLB expands the playoff tourney again, and the Sox stay in the hunt all summer. But even if they add a couple starting pitchers that were injured last year, let's be honest -- the entire rotation would still be in question (and more than most staffs).

 

Probably at least 2/3 of major league pitchers have question marks of some sort, using that term the way we use it here, which is that you can't guarantee they'll be healthy and good in 2021.

 

Go ahead and run through the starting rotations of other AL teams as they stand now and see what I mean.

[harmony]

How so? Sox were under the cap last year. They could legitimately spend as much as theoretically possible this offseason. This isn't a small market team trying to find spare change in their couch. If Henry told Bloom he wanted to win this year, they could sign Bauer, Springer and whoever else they wanted.

The Red Sox front office will wisely look beyond the 2021 Opening Day payroll.

 

Long-term contracts for top free agents will contribute to a baseline payroll for 2022 and beyond. After this season the Red Sox could shed the salaries of Eduardo Rodriguez and Matt Barnes but would likely need replacements. Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo will become more expensive even without extensions.

 

Sure, the Red Sox this offseason could spend up to the CBT threshold and beyond but other clubs could spend as much without approaching the threshold. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the Red Sox have a projected 2021 40-man CBT payroll of $174.8 million, which is $35.2 million under the CBT limit. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers at $197.8 million and New York Mets at $180.6 million have higher projected payrolls. The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros come in just behind the Red Sox.

 

The other 24 clubs offer a wide range of payroll capabilities. In recent years some profitable franchises have significantly reduced payroll not to line the pockets of owners but to strategically rebuild rosters. In the past decade the strategy brought World Series titles to Houston and Kansas City.

 

Until the past year the prevailing thought was that the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement would increase the CBT threshold. That prospect becomes less likely with the owners crying poverty amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A potential work stoppage would further complicate matters.

 

In short, spending by the Red Sox in a weak free agent market this offseason would bring the club closer to the CBT threshold. The outlay could hamstring the franchise in its pursuit of upgrades in an uncertain future.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Until Bloom actually signs a regular who hit better than .156 last year or a pitcher who doesn't have a career losing record, I am uncertain.

 

If he signs more martin Perezes and Perazas, I'll agree, but I think his spending budget is higher, this winter.

 

He may still sign some head-scratchers, but even then, I'm cutting him some slack. Perez and Plawecki actually over performed on my expectations. (Peraza did not.)

[moonslav59]

I think the size of Henry's bank account gives us the flexibility. Now that they cleared the threshold last year, they can really do whatever they want. That's true payroll flexibility IMO.

 

Agreed, but my guess is, and I am just guessing, that Henry has realized this is not "the year" to go the extra step to build a true WS contender, so the winter spending budget is not nearly as "flexible" as it was with DD before the winter of 2019.

 

This by no means we are less "Flexible" than most teams. With today's circumstances as they are, most teams are looking to cut spending or stay even. Then, out of those willing to add from 2020, they won't be adding as much as we do.

 

I'm certain we will out spend the vast majority of teams, this winter. Call it whatever you want, but "flexible" seems to fit well.

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

The notion that they won’t go big because they don’t think they can compete this year is folly. You have to get the player(s) you want when they’re available. And unless you only sign them to 1 year deals, they’ll be around for 2021 as well...

 

I think we will sign some players for the "long term." They may not be flashy, but they could be good to very good, and there could be 3 to five of them...maybe even 6.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Henry has realized this is not "the year" to go the extra step to build a true WS contender, so the winter spending budget is not nearly as "flexible" as it was with DD before the winter of 2019.

.

 

Guys and gals like us also realize it, especially when Bloom -- to his credit -- has been candid about the reasons the Sox aren't in the position right now to trade for a player like Snell or sign someone like Bauer. If other cheerleaders in his office would be as transparent, it'd be more respectful to fandom. I think Red Sox Nation can handle the facts -- and would be even more appreciative during a pandemic in a country so exhausted by disinformation this year.

[notin]

Guys and gals like us also realize it, especially when Bloom -- to his credit -- has been candid about the reasons the Sox aren't in the position right now to trade for a player like Snell. If other cheerleaders in his office would be as transparent, it'd be more respectful to fandom. I think Red Sox Nation can handle the facts -- and would be even more appreciative during a pandemic in a country so exhausted by disinformation this year.

 

I didn't think he was candid at all. His reasoning sounded more political. The reason he was unable to get Snell was the Sox simply had no way of matching the offer the Padres gave. And even trying would have done nothing except maybe get the Padres to up their offer. It's not like Snell's contract - which Bloom probably wrote for a small market team - was all that daunting, and it's not like Bloom has no knowledge of prospect attrition rates. The Sox were going to be outbid by a team that simply had a much greater abundance of players to deal from. End of reason.

[notin]

I thought this guy's plan was going to be stupid (because I found the link on Trevor Bauer's B-R page), but it's much more reasonable that I expected.

 

https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2021/01/08/2021-red-sox-predictions/

[moonslav59]

Guys and gals like us also realize it, especially when Bloom -- to his credit -- has been candid about the reasons the Sox aren't in the position right now to trade for a player like Snell or sign someone like Bauer. If other cheerleaders in his office would be as transparent, it'd be more respectful to fandom. I think Red Sox Nation can handle the facts -- and would be even more appreciative during a pandemic in a country so exhausted by disinformation this year.

 

Well said.

 

My guess is we will get to the point where we feel like we are one or two big additions away from being a top 3-4 team, and Bloom will be given the green light.

 

I doubt that time comes this summer, and maybe not even next winter, but I'm hoping it's not too far away.

 

I am also hoping we don't strike out on our next large and long deal(s).

[moonslav59]

I thought this guy's plan was going to be stupid (because I found the link on Trevor Bauer's B-R page), but it's much more reasonable that I expected.

 

https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2021/01/08/2021-red-sox-predictions/

 

Solid.

[harmony]

I thought this guy's plan was going to be stupid (because I found the link on Trevor Bauer's B-R page), but it's much more reasonable that I expected.

 

https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2021/01/08/2021-red-sox-predictions/

Well organized, well written ... and optimistic.

[notin]

Well organized, well written ... and optimistic.

 

I was expecting some deeply insightful plan like “just sign Bauer, Springer and Yates and then trade for Jose Ramirez. See how easy it is” type thing presented like it was not only obvious, but also easily affordable. His acquisitions were probably a bit much, but not out of reach...

[dgalehouse]

Let's face it folks, Chaim Bloom is not exactly " Mr. Excitement." We will all need to be very, very patient.

[mvp 78]

While the Red Sox were among the teams that liked Sugano, they are “uninterested” in offering any pitcher a four-year deal this winter, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. They are, however, willing to offer two-year or three-year terms to certain hurlers. As Speier writes, that dovetails nicely with the team’s ongoing Jake Odorizzi pursuit. Arguably the second-best free agent starter remaining on the market, Odorizzi is expected to land a three-year deal in the $36MM — $42MM range.