2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

Much like Eovaldi, the problem with Hill is not the talent...

 

Would you sign him for 1.5 mill plus incentives for starts made?

[notin]

Would you sign him for 1.5 mill plus incentives for starts made?

 

Sure.

 

But then I'd sign my own mother to that kind of deal...

[Bellhorn04]

Sure.

 

But then I'd sign my own mother to that kind of deal...

 

Like I say, he only made 3 mill last year, so it's not totally implausible, especially the way things are going this offseason.

[mvp 78]

Would you sign him for 1.5 mill plus incentives for starts made?

 

Fine.

[mvp 78]

@OverTheMonster

Yet another good time for a reminder that Moneyball wasn't about sabermetrics it was about taking advantage of market inefficiencies and right now the biggest market inefficiency in baseball is actually trying to improve your team.

 

This. Agreed. 100%.

[kenmeister]

Lindor/Carrasco traded to the Mets, by the way.

 

Wow! That's a huge trade.

[jad]

@OverTheMonster

Yet another good time for a reminder that Moneyball wasn't about sabermetrics it was about taking advantage of market inefficiencies and right now the biggest market inefficiency in baseball is actually trying to improve your team.

 

This. Agreed. 100%.

 

Wait. I'm lost. Explain this please (either one of you): how is "trying to improve your team" a "market inefficiency"? I'm not arguing; I just don't understand that. And does this mean "therefore, one SHOULD try to improve a team"? or "one should not"?

[moonslav59]

Lindor/Carrasco traded to the Mets, by the way.

 

The Mets are going all in.

[mvp 78]

Wait. I'm lost. Explain this please (either one of you): how is "trying to improve your team" a "market inefficiency"? I'm not arguing; I just don't understand that. And does this mean "therefore, one SHOULD try to improve a team"? or "one should not"?

 

The only teams that seem to be all in this offseason is the Mets and Padres. The inefficiency is that when all the teams are waiting until the end of the period to sign people, you have the opportunity to be first in line and just get the guy you really want.

[moonslav59]

The only teams that seem to be all in this offseason is the Mets and Padres. The inefficiency is that when all the teams are waiting until the end of the period to sign people, you have the opportunity to be first in line and just get the guy you really want.

 

Seems to me like waiting may be highly efficient.

[Bellhorn04]

The only teams that seem to be all in this offseason is the Mets and Padres. The inefficiency is that when all the teams are waiting until the end of the period to sign people, you have the opportunity to be first in line and just get the guy you really want.

 

Of course, acquiring players by trading prospect capital is in a different category from free agent signings.

[Bellhorn04]

Seems to me like waiting may be highly efficient.

 

What if everyone waits?

[jad]

The only teams that seem to be all in this offseason is the Mets and Padres. The inefficiency is that when all the teams are waiting until the end of the period to sign people, you have the opportunity to be first in line and just get the guy you really want.

 

OK. I get the context now. BECAUSE teams are holding back, there are more opportunities for taking action, since other teams will not be willing to compete, and FAs might be fearful of holding out too long? Therefore, a team with resources definitely should act, and should do so now (the word "inefficiency" threw me off here.)

[mvp 78]

@JonHeyman

Two hours to go for the deadline for star RHP Tomoyuki Sugano, and unless someone makes a big push late, there’s a good chance he’ll return to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants, who offered 4 years with 3 opt-outs. Jays, others have been in mix but might not be the right year to move.

[mvp 78]

Seems to me like waiting may be highly efficient.

 

Not when 27 other teams are waiting too.

[moonslav59]

Not when 27 other teams are waiting too.

 

No, 27 are not. Many will not be signing anybody for much more than min wage.

 

I'm not saying wait until the day before opening day, but waiting will probably turn out to be the "smart" thing do do, both in terms of financial bargains found, but also maximizing your value.

 

The Sox have such a pitiful bottom of their 40 man roster and a pretty weak bottom of their 26 man roster. They could do better finding 4-6 bargain gems than going for just 2-4 higher cost flashy guys.

 

[mvp 78]

No, 27 are not. Many will not be signing anybody for much more than min wage.

 

I'm not saying wait until the day before opening day, but waiting will probably turn out to be the "smart" thing do do, both in terms of financial bargains found, but also maximizing your value.

 

The Sox have such a pitiful bottom of their 40 man roster and a pretty weak bottom of their 26 man roster. They could do better finding 4-6 bargain gems than going for just 2-4 higher cost flashy guys.

 

 

If you go bargain bin shopping, you'll most likely look like it too.

[mvp 78]

RIP Filene's Basement in Downtown Crossing

[Bellhorn04]

No, 27 are not. Many will not be signing anybody for much more than min wage.

 

I'm not saying wait until the day before opening day, but waiting will probably turn out to be the "smart" thing do do, both in terms of financial bargains found, but also maximizing your value.

 

It's just that every GM in baseball who's looking for players has to be thinking this exact same thing. It's pretty obvious by now.

[notin]

Wait. I'm lost. Explain this please (either one of you): how is "trying to improve your team" a "market inefficiency"? I'm not arguing; I just don't understand that. And does this mean "therefore, one SHOULD try to improve a team"? or "one should not"?

 

It was a snarky way of saying "no one is doing anything".

 

It's January 7th, and so far the biggest free agent contract has gone to James McCann. ...

[notin]

Of course, acquiring players by trading prospect capital is in a different category from free agent signings.

 

Not really.

 

Prospect capital represents potential major leaguers at minimum wage, and trading them typically involves taking on higher salaries. Free agents? Trading prospects? In both cases, you're going to be spending more money...

[Bellhorn04]

Not really.

 

Prospect capital represents potential major leaguers at minimum wage, and trading them typically involves taking on higher salaries. Free agents? Trading prospects? In both cases, you're going to be spending more money...

 

Sure they're different.

 

Some teams are obviously better positioned to make big acquisitions with prospect capital. And those generally involve taking on salaries that are lower than free agent prices.

 

The Chris Sale trade for example. We couldn't do a deal like that right now even if we wanted to.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Tomoyuki Sugano has until 5pm to sign with an MLB team, but it won't be with the Red Sox, who appear out on the NPB star. Could Jake Odorizzi fit their plans?

[notin]

Sure they're different.

 

Some teams are obviously better positioned to make big acquisitions with prospect capital. And those generally involve taking on salaries that are lower than free agent prices.

 

The Chris Sale trade for example. We couldn't do a deal like that right now even if we wanted to.

 

Yes you can get owner salaries, but you also ave no say in the player's deal. You take on whatever years he has left, for example. As well as any bonuses, NTC, etc. Free agency is generally more expensive but also allows the team some say in the terms...

[moonslav59]

If you go bargain bin shopping, you'll most likely look like it too.

 

Again, I'm not saying wait until the very end. There will be plenty of decent players signing later in the cycle.

 

We don't need to sign Bauer, Springer, DJ or Realmutto to add serious value without busting our budget.

[moonslav59]

It's just that every GM in baseball who's looking for players has to be thinking this exact same thing. It's pretty obvious by now.

 

Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.

[moonslav59]

@alexspeier

Tomoyuki Sugano has until 5pm to sign with an MLB team...

 

He's staying in Japan.

 

-MLBTR

[harmony]

Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.

And some teams will have more payroll flexibility than the Red Sox.

Edited January 7, 2021 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Every GM will not have the spending budget Bloom will likely have. Therein lies the difference.

 

True, but if we were to sign Odorizzi, Kluber and Hand or Bradley, that would put a big dent in the budget room.

 

It's going to be interesting. Let's hope, anyway.

[notin]

True, but if we were to sign Odorizzi, Kluber and Hand or Bradley, that would put a big dent in the budget room.

 

It's going to be interesting. Let's hope, anyway.

 

Yes.

 

Also, markedly improve the team....