2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

BOS vs TOR

 

C Vaz >Jansen

1B Dalbec

2B EHern

3B Devers > Biggio

SS Bogey > Bichette

LF Renfroe

CF Cordero

RF Verdugo > Grichuk

DH JD > Tellez/Hernandez

 

Seems pretty close.

 

[harmony]

BOS vs TOR

 

C Vaz >Jansen

1B Dalbec

2B EHern

3B Devers > Biggio

SS Bogey > Bichette

LF Renfroe

CF Cordero

RF Verdugo > Grichuk

DH JD > Tellez/Hernandez

 

Seems pretty close.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox hitters with 20.8 WAR and Blue Jay hitters with 26.5 WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14#ALL

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs Depth Charts project Red Sox hitters with 20.8 WAR and Blue Jay hitters with 26.5 WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14#ALL

 

My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.

[notin]

My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.

 

Position by position comparisons are common, but really are useless unless you’re comparing defense. Just because two players play the same position doesn’t mean they fill the same role in the offense.

 

For example, Verdugo over Grichuk. Yes Verdugo is better, but this really tells us our likely leadoff hitter is better than the Jays’ probable 8th spot hitter...

[moonslav59]

Position by position comparisons are common, but really are useless unless you’re comparing defense. Just because two players play the same position doesn’t mean they fill the same role in the offense.

 

For example, Verdugo over Grichuk. Yes Verdugo is better, but this really tells us our likely leadoff hitter is better than the Jays’ probable 8th spot hitter...

 

True, and even a batting slot by batting slot comp can be misleading.

[jacksonianmarch]

Teoscar Hernandez absolutely slaughtered JDM last year in production. Demolished. Bogey and Bichette, offensively, are real close and Bichette has youth on his side. We havent seen what he can do in a full season. Biggio also outplayed Devers last year. You arent taking a few things into account here. One is degree of separation. Just saying its 4 winners, 5 losers, we must be close isnt really very good.

[Elktonnick]

My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.

 

The Jays are really the big unknown. Until Canada eases cross border travel they are literally nomads. I think not having a settled home in Major League ballpark, Buffalo is a poor alternative could cause issues depending how long that goes on. I realize they will be playing some early games in Florida.

Plus Jays team in recent years have the habit of fading down the stretch. In think every team in the ALE will be somewhat less predictable than their on paper evaluations make them out to be. Personally I think the 21 season is going to be more of a crap shoot than any realize at least early on.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Jays are really the big unknown. Until Canada eases cross border travel they are literally nomads. I think not having a settled home in Major League ballpark, Buffalo is a poor alternative could cause issues depending how long that goes on. I realize they will be playing some early games in Florida.

Plus Jays team in recent years have the habit of fading down the stretch. In think every team in the ALE will be somewhat less predictable than their on paper evaluations make them out to be. Personally I think the 21 season is going to be more of a crap shoot than any realize at least early on.

 

The Jays have a young core not far removed from the taxi days of the minors. They will adjust. If it was the Yanks having to do this, it would be a bigger issue

[Elktonnick]

An individual young player maybe, but a group of young inexperienced players need structure. We will see but over the last twenty Yeats I have seen too many Jays teams not live up to their early hype.and collapse like a cheap folding chair.

[moonslav59]

The Jays certainly improved, and they have a bunch of young players who should only improve, but as we have seen with many young players, they do not always follow a bell curve.

 

BTW, the Sox have a bunch of players approaching prime, who could also improve or even have monster years. Plus, we have a few in the meat of prime. Only JD is past prime, but not by so much that he can't still have a big year or two left in him.

 

Devers is 24. (.916 in 2019)

Verdugo is 24. (.817 in 2019 and .844 in 2020.)

Dalbec is 25. (.959 in 2020 small sample/ .816 in minors 2019)

Arroyo & Chavis are 25.

Cordero is 26. (.754 since 2019)

 

Prime:

Bogey is 28. (.939 in 2019/.921 '19-'20/.907 '18-'20)

Renfroe is 28. (.805 in 2018)

EHern is 28. (.836 in 2015/ .806 in '18)

Vaz is 30. (.798 from 2019-2020)

 

I'm not saying everyone will match their most recent high numbers, but they have all shown they CAN do well, except for Cordero & Dalbec with small sample sizes.

 

Plus,

 

JD is 33. (.938 since joining the Sox.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Chat line predicted Odorizzi to the Jays for $20M/2 with vesting option and JBJ to HOU for $20M/2.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, it's because I'm a strong believer in the 'crap shoot' playoff theory that I don't think overkill is a good idea. Build a team to win in the regular season. Don't focus on trying to put the team over the top in the playoffs.

 

But where was the overkill, exactly - the Sale trade? I would argue that we needed him pretty badly and it wasn't overkill. In his first season we won 93 games. Might have only won 88 or so without him. That doesn't look like overkill.

[mvp 78]

I think Cordero should be the CF. Soxprospects has him in LF with Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. Renfroe certainly has the arm for RF, but I don’t think he can cover it in Fenway...

 

Verdugo 27.5 ft/sec

Renfroe 27.3 ft/sec

JBJ 27.3 ft/sec

 

I think Renfroe could cover RF if he had to.

[mvp 78]

Teoscar Hernandez absolutely slaughtered JDM last year in production. Demolished. Bogey and Bichette, offensively, are real close and Bichette has youth on his side. We havent seen what he can do in a full season. Biggio also outplayed Devers last year. You arent taking a few things into account here. One is degree of separation. Just saying its 4 winners, 5 losers, we must be close isnt really very good.

 

I could see Bichette leapfrogging Xander this year.

 

Devers 19-20: 6.4 fWAR

Biggio 19-20: 3.8 fWAR

 

Vlad Jr: 0.6 career fWAR

Dalbec: 0.6 career fWAR

[Nick]

Bloom added that the development of a young core is a major focus for the Red Sox in 2021.

 

“For me, I would love to get to the end of this year and look and see that next core -- because you always have to have a next core -- that is going to be the center of a sustainable championship contender,” he said. “To see that core taking shape, both with the players who have been here and part of the core that won the last championship and are going to continue to be here, and then the players who are going to join that group, whether it’s from within our system, guys who we acquired or guys who might not even be here yet.”

 

 

I just don't see how JBJr fits in this plan....1 year deal is okay but absolutely NO NO NO if his salary takes us over the tax limit. That would be the dumbest move. If we're going over, we should have signed an impact player, not a marginal one.

 

I rather see a younger player get the rep, but that's just me.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Bloom on extensions: Sox have discussed possibility internally and may pursue something later in the spring, but to this point, offseason focus was on building 2021 roster.

 

Extending Devers would go a long way to restore fan confidence.

[jacksonianmarch]

@alexspeier

Bloom on extensions: Sox have discussed possibility internally and may pursue something later in the spring, but to this point, offseason focus was on building 2021 roster.

 

Extending Devers would go a long way to restore fan confidence.

 

If I am Bloom, this is the show me year for Devers. He was terrible in 18, awesome in 19, meh in 20. I do not extend him until he delivers more to 2019 standards. If he settles out as a below average D, above average 3b offensively, then I would not extend period. You need to take his offense and look at it through the prism of a first basemen, which he would be at some point if you extend him. And outside of 2019, he hasnt shown the ability to hit well enough to stand up to other 1b's in the league

[mvp 78]

If I am Bloom, this is the show me year for Devers. He was terrible in 18, awesome in 19, meh in 20. I do not extend him until he delivers more to 2019 standards. If he settles out as a below average D, above average 3b offensively, then I would not extend period. You need to take his offense and look at it through the prism of a first basemen, which he would be at some point if you extend him. And outside of 2019, he hasnt shown the ability to hit well enough to stand up to other 1b's in the league

 

Funny as with his "meh" 2020, his WRC+ would have been 16th best at 1B. Middle of the pack for sure, but that's on a "meh" year, right?

 

His WRC+ from 2019 would have been top 6 at 1B last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If I am Bloom, this is the show me year for Devers. He was terrible in 18, awesome in 19, meh in 20. I do not extend him until he delivers more to 2019 standards. If he settles out as a below average D, above average 3b offensively, then I would not extend period. You need to take his offense and look at it through the prism of a first basemen, which he would be at some point if you extend him. And outside of 2019, he hasnt shown the ability to hit well enough to stand up to other 1b's in the league

 

I remember how terrible he was in '18, cranking the three-run homer off Verlander that won the pennant, then delivering the clutch pinch-single in the 9th to drive in the winning run in Game Four of the World Series.

[jacksonianmarch]

Funny as with his "meh" 2020, his WRC+ would have been 16th best at 1B. Middle of the pack for sure, but that's on a "meh" year, right?

 

His WRC+ from 2019 would have been top 6 at 1B last year.

 

Do you extend Devers at top market rate if he moves to 1b and is the 16th best 1b in baseball?

[notin]

Do you extend Devers at top market rate if he moves to 1b and is the 16th best 1b in baseball?

 

He's 24. Think he stays 16th best 1b?

[Noles_1335]

The bigger question should be what will he be looking for in said extension. Is he the type of player that demands 7-140/150 deal or even north of that. If the the overweight and out of shape guy that showed up last season is the guy demanding that, then it should be a pass.

[mvp 78]

Do you extend Devers at top market rate if he moves to 1b and is the 16th best 1b in baseball?

 

I don't expect his #'s to be that low. That's baseline in a bad year for him.

 

He did hit 868 from 8/9 on. That seems more likely of a scenario than his documented early season struggle.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo 27.5 ft/sec

Renfroe 27.3 ft/sec

JBJ 27.3 ft/sec

 

I think Renfroe could cover RF if he had to.

 

RF is a monster position in Fenway. Renfroe might be okay, but it helps to be plus out there for half our games.

[harmony]

Pablo Sandoval remains a reasonable comp for Rafael Devers through their age 23 seasons (although at those points Sandoval had four years of team control remaining while Devers has only three).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml

 

An extension carries risks and rewards because of the wide range of potential outcomes.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Devers ends up better than his 2020 line suggests, but the last thing you want is to add 6 years and $150 mil to his ledger for him and find out he's just good. Devers (I suspect) would not sell himself short at 24 yrs old, so he would want to be adequately compensated in an extension. So are the sox willing to assume the risk that Devers ends up a average to above average 1b yet paying him like an elite 3b?

[moonslav59]

If I am Bloom, this is the show me year for Devers. He was terrible in 18, awesome in 19, meh in 20. I do not extend him until he delivers more to 2019 standards. If he settles out as a below average D, above average 3b offensively, then I would not extend period. You need to take his offense and look at it through the prism of a first basemen, which he would be at some point if you extend him. And outside of 2019, he hasnt shown the ability to hit well enough to stand up to other 1b's in the league

 

Take into account that Devers was the youngest player at every level he played.

 

Then, take a look at the league average OPS at 1B, and tell us again why Devers, who is only 24, can't "stand up" to other MLB 1Bmen.

 

.815 2017 (Devers .819)

.760 2018 (Devers .731)

.789 2019 (Devers .916)

.774 2020 (Devers .793)

 

Devers career: .830 and is only 24.

 

I appreciate getting a different perspective from non Sox fans, but sometimes you are far from objective.

 

[Bellhorn04]

An extension carries risks and rewards because of the wide range of potential outcomes.

 

Yep, just like most things in life.

[mvp 78]

I think Devers ends up better than his 2020 line suggests, but the last thing you want is to add 6 years and $150 mil to his ledger for him and find out he's just good. Devers (I suspect) would not sell himself short at 24 yrs old, so he would want to be adequately compensated in an extension. So are the sox willing to assume the risk that Devers ends up a average to above average 1b yet paying him like an elite 3b?

 

And if they extend him at a reasonable rate and he could exceed the contract, it would be worth the risk.

[moonslav59]

I think Devers ends up better than his 2020 line suggests, but the last thing you want is to add 6 years and $150 mil to his ledger for him and find out he's just good. Devers (I suspect) would not sell himself short at 24 yrs old, so he would want to be adequately compensated in an extension. So are the sox willing to assume the risk that Devers ends up a average to above average 1b yet paying him like an elite 3b?

 

Why should he get worse after age 24?

 

His .830 career OPs, put together at ages 20-23, blows the league average away at 1B and even more so at 3B.

 

The question is, will he be significantly better than .830 for a few years, as he moves through his prime years?

 

It is a gamble, but I'm expecting a big improvement over the next few years.

 

The kid came up raw as raw can be, and he still did very well. He seems to have smoothed out some of the rough edges, but he's a pure hitter.

 

I'd extend him to more than 6 years $150.