2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

It always amazes me how so many of the analytics devotees undervalue the importance of a closer. To me , there is nothing more frustrating and demoralizing than blowing the lead in the ninth inning.

 

I don't really disagree. Red Sox fans were in heaven when Koji was the closer in 2013.

 

I do get the argument that maybe your best reliever could be used earlier than the ninth if the situations warrants it.

 

The Guardians had a great setup that year Cody Allen was closer and Andrew Miller was 'relief ace'. But the truth is you're not always going to have two guys like that who are both pitching lights out at the same time.

[harmony]

It always amazes me how so many of the analytics devotees undervalue the importance of a closer. To me , there is nothing more frustrating and demoralizing than blowing the lead in the ninth inning.

A ninth-inning lead can be blown with or without a closer.

[dgalehouse]

A ninth-inning lead can be blown with or without a closer.

 

Harm , Would you agree that a ninth inning lead is less likely to be blown when you have a really good closer ?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It always amazes me how so many of the analytics devotees undervalue the importance of a closer. To me , there is nothing more frustrating and demoralizing than blowing the lead in the ninth inning.

 

To me, there are levels of distress in the 9th. If a closer blows one because a smart hitter went with a low and outside pitch for an oppo double, then the other guys beat us. But if a pitcher suddenly can't hit the side of a barn, starts bouncing curves and throwing heaters over the backstop, and walks the house... then we beat us. For fans and teammates, that is abject horror.

[harmony]

Harm , Would you agree that a ninth inning lead is less likely to be blown when you have a really good closer ?

Subpar pitching can blow a lead at any point of a game. The emotional impact on fans may be great in the ninth inning but less so for players who are likely to have empathy for the teammate who blows a save. The fan may call the offending reliever a bum but teammates are likely to provide comfort.

 

Or not.

 

Analytics help keep the emotions out of the bullpen strategy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Talk to any of the former pitchers, not the current ones, about closing. No current pitcher is going to say that closers are a "different breed" or they need to have "stones of steel", etc. But retired guys will tell you that after the fact. I do believe closing takes a special mindset. The courage to throw pitches with meaning pretty much every time you're out there, the power to overpower the hitters, and a short memory of your defeats

[mvp 78]

Talk to any of the former pitchers, not the current ones, about closing. No current pitcher is going to say that closers are a "different breed" or they need to have "stones of steel", etc. But retired guys will tell you that after the fact. I do believe closing takes a special mindset. The courage to throw pitches with meaning pretty much every time you're out there, the power to overpower the hitters, and a short memory of your defeats

 

I want to say that relief guys can be slotted wherever and come into a any part of the game you need them to, but IMO these guys are creatures of habit. You need to slot them in to certain parts of the game so that they can be mentally ready to do what they do. I think bringing in a "closer" in the 8th and another guy for the 9th due to matchups doesn't work as well in reality as we'd like it to.

[notin]

Talk to any of the former pitchers, not the current ones, about closing. No current pitcher is going to say that closers are a "different breed" or they need to have "stones of steel", etc. But retired guys will tell you that after the fact. I do believe closing takes a special mindset. The courage to throw pitches with meaning pretty much every time you're out there, the power to overpower the hitters, and a short memory of your defeats

 

Ok goody, this argument again.

 

Sure it takes a special mentality to close. Is that any different than the mentality it takes to start or set up or perform middle relief? I do not think pitchers who blow the lead in the 7th inning laugh it off and tell their teammates that they have their work cut out for them. (And contrary to "closer mentality" logic, a blown save is not automatically a loss. Many of them simply tie the score.)

 

If it takes a special mentality to close because the game is on the line, isn't it also on the line for the hitters? After all, iof they fail, their team loses. Doesn't that offset the "closing pressure"? Or if all the pressure is on the closer, then that means there is no pressure on the hitters, and therefore there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. (Oh no!! I went there.)

 

I think any pitcher capable of making the majors has to have a certain mentality, regardless of roles. (Hitters, too.) And pitchers (and hitters) who do not have it struggle to make the majors or struggle to stay there. The minors are littered with mega-talented arms capable of topping 100 mph who never get more than a September call up. Heck, some never get out of A ball. And of these arms, some of them simply lack the mental make up to handle the game at the next level, and that is why they peak where they peak. Rick Ankiel was a prime example, as his mental makeup was so bad, he changed to the outfield and gave up pitching altogether. (I remember once on MLB2N during Ankiel's struggles, Tim Kurjikian made the incredibly prophetic statement "If Ankiel continues to struggle pitching, he can always switch to outfield because he is such a good hitter." Wow. Yes, he really said that.)

 

But the analytic strategy is simple: if your closer is your best reliever - and he usually is - use him against the best hitters. If the 4-5-6 hitters are due up in the 8th, why are you not using your best pitcher? And why are you saving your best for the 7-8-9 hitters in the 9th? The "opener" strategy was based on this logic, because as the game is unfolding, you do not always know who will be due up in the 9th, but you do always know who is due up in the first. So use one of your better if not your best arms then and take away one trip through the lineup for the opposing best hitters...

Edited February 24, 2021 by notin

[notin]

I want to say that relief guys can be slotted wherever and come into a any part of the game you need them to, but IMO these guys are creatures of habit. You need to slot them in to certain parts of the game so that they can be mentally ready to do what they do. I think bringing in a "closer" in the 8th and another guy for the 9th due to matchups doesn't work as well in reality as we'd like it to.

 

Some are absolutely creatures of habit. Some absolutely want defined roles. But as these are human beings, they simply do not all fall into the same category. Former closer Kent Tekulve was often critical of his usage and said "I should never pitch 3 days in a row but I should never go 3 days without pitching." No mention of inning. No mention of roles or pressure. He apparently just wanted to be out there as often as he felt he could handle. And I would not be surprised if the overwhelming majority has the exact same mindset. They didn't spend their whole lives playing baseball just so they could reach the majors and sit back and wait for situations to arise that suited them...

[mvp 78]

Some are absolutely creatures of habit. Some absolutely want defined roles. But as these are human beings, they simply do not all fall into the same category. Former closer Kent Tekulve was often critical of his usage and said "I should never pitch 3 days in a row but I should never go 3 days without pitching." No mention of inning. No mention of roles or pressure. He apparently just wanted to be out there as often as he felt he could handle. And I would not be surprised if the overwhelming majority has the exact same mindset. They didn't spend their whole lives playing baseball just so they could reach the majors and sit back and wait for situations to arise that suited them...

 

Tekulve is 73. The game that he pitched in doesn't really exist anymore. Eck only had like 25% of his career saves at the point Tekulve retired. Hard to say that his experience as a reliever prior to 1988 has much bearing on what the game looks like now.

[notin]

I want to say that relief guys can be slotted wherever and come into a any part of the game you need them to, but IMO these guys are creatures of habit. You need to slot them in to certain parts of the game so that they can be mentally ready to do what they do. I think bringing in a "closer" in the 8th and another guy for the 9th due to matchups doesn't work as well in reality as we'd like it to.

 

Hard to say.

 

In a 60 game season last year, Tampa got saves from 12 different pitchers, including 5 who had multiple saves.

 

So were they being situational here? I didn't watch all of their regular season games (Did anyone on Earth do that who was not a Ray or married to one?)

 

It is hard to say because the rules for a save are rather lax and sometimes just mean pitching the last 3 innings of a game regardless of the score. For example, one of the pitchers with one save was Anthony Banda, who got his against Boston in a 17-8 game.

 

But then Chaz Roe had only one save, and it was in a 6-3 game against the Yankees. Situational? Andrew Kittredge also had one save, and it was in an 8-7 game against Boston...

Edited February 24, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Tekulve is 73. The game that he pitched in doesn't really exist anymore. Eck only had like 25% of his career saves at the point Tekulve retired. Hard to say that his experience as a reliever prior to 1988 has much bearing on what the game looks like now.

 

There was a lot less specialization when he played, but I think the "I just want to get out there" mentality has always been in baseball. No one wants to be a benchwarmer.

 

I do think a lot of relief pitchers want to closer role, but probably more so because it pays significantly more than other bullpen roles. Not because of the actual role itself..

[mvp 78]

There was a lot less specialization when he played, but I think the "I just want to get out there" mentality has always been in baseball. No one wants to be a benchwarmer.

 

I do think a lot of relief pitchers want to closer role, but probably more so because it pays significantly more than other bullpen roles. Not because of the actual role itself..

 

I just remember that everytime Paplebon was brought in for the 8th inning, it seemed to go very poorly. I think closers want to close. They want the ball for 3 batters and to strike each of them out. They don't want to get up in the 7th.

[Bellhorn04]

I just remember that everytime Paplebon was brought in for the 8th inning, it seemed to go very poorly. I think closers want to close. They want the ball for 3 batters and to strike each of them out. They don't want to get up in the 7th.

 

Kimbrel's pre-9th inning results were also spotty to say the least.

[moonslav59]

I just remember that everytime Paplebon was brought in for the 8th inning, it seemed to go very poorly. I think closers want to close. They want the ball for 3 batters and to strike each of them out. They don't want to get up in the 7th.

 

Papelbon by IP- career (some not with the Sox)

 

1.61 Extra innings (.525) 67 IP

2.26 8th inning (.564 OPS against) 52 IP

2.50 9th inning (.589) 584 IP)

 

All, spectacular numbers.

 

I do think some pitchers have a comfort level that greatly affects their performance when taken out of it. Other hardly ever get a chance to try the 9th inning closer role. Maybe there were way more Koji's out there than anyone knew or will ever know they had.

 

No other inning had a sample size above 5.

[notin]

Kimbrel's pre-9th inning results were also spotty to say the least.

 

Career ERA

 

2.00 in the 7th

2.45 in the 8th

2.09 in the 9th

 

So... not really.

 

I do think some fans have a comfort level with how a pitcher should be used. So when one isn’t used as they like/want/expect, they remember the failures more clearly...

[Bellhorn04]

Career ERA

 

2.00 in the 7th

2.45 in the 8th

2.09 in the 9th

 

So... not really.

 

I do think some fans have a comfort level with how a pitcher should be used. So when one isn’t used as they like/want/expect, they remember the failures more clearly...

 

Can you pull up the same numbers with the Red Sox?

[Bellhorn04]

On a PTBNL note, the Dodgers just selected the last of the players they got from the Jays for the Ross Stripling trade in August.

 

So six months later...

[moonslav59]

Can you pull up the same numbers with the Red Sox?

 

Kimbrel

ERA/OPS against

2016:

3.00/.757 8th inning

3.38/.511 9th

2017:

0.00/.282 8th inning

1.59/.466 9th inning

2018:

5.40/1.067 8th

2.62/.511 9th

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Regarding blown saves, no matter the inning, here's a take from a fan watching from home and a player watching from a distance farther from the plate (I don't play catcher): any reactions of disappointment or disgust -- if the guy is getting paid -- are weighted more towards relievers walking batters versus giving up hits.

 

Guys here often admit ERA is deceiving for relievers, who aren't penalized for allowing inherited runners to score. Even batting averages don't show the wildness dreaded by spectators off and on the field. Maybe WHIP is a better stat?

[Bellhorn04]

Regarding blown saves, no matter the inning, here's a take from a fan watching from home and a player watching from a distance farther from the plate (I don't play catcher): any reactions of disappointment or disgust -- if the guy is getting paid -- are weighted more towards relievers walking batters versus giving up hits.

 

Guys here often admit ERA is deceiving for relievers, who aren't penalized for allowing inherited runners to score. Even batting averages don't show the wildness dreaded by spectators off and on the field. Maybe WHIP is a better stat?

 

Or OPS against, OBP against, SLG against.

[moonslav59]

Regarding blown saves, no matter the inning, here's a take from a fan watching from home and a player watching from a distance farther from the plate (I don't play catcher): any reactions of disappointment or disgust -- if the guy is getting paid -- are weighted more towards relievers walking batters versus giving up hits.

 

Guys here often admit ERA is deceiving for relievers, who aren't penalized for allowing inherited runners to score. Even batting averages don't show the wildness dreaded by spectators off and on the field. Maybe WHIP is a better stat?

 

WHIP is a stat I used to use a lot, especially for RP'ers, but it falling out of favor by almost everyone.

 

OPS against weights walks (OBP) and what sort of hits were allowed (SLG).

 

I've never been a big fan of FIP or xFIP, since many pitchers with low K rates have proven they can be very effective over a long time.

 

Even K/9 and B/9 are being replaced by K% and BB%, which makes a ton of sense.

 

A pitcher who faces 6 batters per inning and K's 2 guys while allowing 3 men on base has an 18 K/9 rate and a 33% K%.

 

Another pitcher who faces just 4 batters per inning and K's 2 guys while allowing 1 base runner also has a K/9 rate of 18, but his K% is 50%.

 

While they both K the same amount per inning, the second pitcher is a much better K machine (and pitcher).

 

[moonslav59]

K% to BB% is a good "new tool."

 

Here are the best RP'ers, since 2001 (with 150+ IP):

 

35 Josh Hader

31 Kimbrel

31 E Diaz

31 Jansen

30 Chapman

29 Uehara

28 Betances

28 Greene

26 Yates, A Miller & Giles

25 Doolittle & Wagner

24 WSmith, Osuna, L Hendricks & May

23 Knebel, Pagan & Smoltz

22 Robertson, Hand, FVazquez, Lugo, Romo, Papelbon, Neris & Nen

 

K/BB Leaders

7.9 Koji

6.7 CMartin

6.3 osuna

5.8 Doolittle

5.7 CGreene

5.6 Smoltz & jansen

5.5 Rivera

5.3 Scribner

5.2 Y Garcia & Hendricks

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Kimbrel

ERA/OPS against

2016:

3.00/.757 8th inning

3.38/.511 9th

2017:

0.00/.282 8th inning

1.59/.466 9th inning

2018:

5.40/1.067 8th

2.62/.511 9th

 

Probably worth noting that 2018 8th inning data is also based on giving up 2 ER in 3.1 IP....

[notin]

Regarding blown saves, no matter the inning, here's a take from a fan watching from home and a player watching from a distance farther from the plate (I don't play catcher): any reactions of disappointment or disgust -- if the guy is getting paid -- are weighted more towards relievers walking batters versus giving up hits.

 

Guys here often admit ERA is deceiving for relievers, who aren't penalized for allowing inherited runners to score. Even batting averages don't show the wildness dreaded by spectators off and on the field. Maybe WHIP is a better stat?

 

BAA and WHIP have the same fatal flaw - home runs and weak grounders to third count the same...

[moonslav59]

Probably worth noting that 2018 8th inning data is also based on giving up 2 ER in 3.1 IP....

 

The other years' sample sizes were small, as well.

[Bellhorn04]

The other years' sample sizes were small, as well.

 

Perhaps the issue I'm remembering with Kimbrel was that when he came in in the 8th for a 4 or 5 out save, he didn't do well in the 9th.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Perhaps the issue I'm remembering with Kimbrel was that when he came in in the 8th for a 4 or 5 out save, he didn't do well in the 9th.

 

That reminds me of another issue guys like Kimbrel and Pap had -- coming into tie games, as opposed to starting with the lead. It almost felt like some of the intensity was missing, or had to be rationed, if there was no personal stat to nail down ("Holds" can't be worth as much as saves at negotiating tables... or in nightclubs).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

BAA and WHIP have the same fatal flaw - home runs and weak grounders to third count the same...

 

Yup, there's certainly a difference between giving up weak contact or getting tagged. My suggestion of WHIP was more an accounting for guys missing the strike zone.

[mvp 78]

Perhaps the issue I'm remembering with Kimbrel was that when he came in in the 8th for a 4 or 5 out save, he didn't do well in the 9th.

 

Same thing with Paplebon. I just remember him struggling if he ever came in with runners on or had to go more than one inning.