2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

With the moves they kept making, the Red Sox were definitely going for it heading into -- and throughout -- 2018. But based on the contract extensions heading into 2019, I do think they were planning on sustainability. We can argue in hindsight of the wisdom of those contracts, but the front office, the team, and the fans certainly thought the Sox would continue to contend for another ring, at least in '19.

 

Absolutely. They were all-in for 2019. Then everything went sideways.

[notin]

Absolutely. They were all-in for 2019. Then everything went sideways.

 

Much like in poker, being “all in” is only a good thing if you follow it up with a win...

[Kimmi]

Ryu is better than anyone on the Red Sox staff other than a healthy Sale. Ray is a big arm. He’s been searching for consistency. Roark is a steady arm and performer who eats some innings. Their rotation is rounded out by Matz, Stripling, and Pearson. They have 6 legit starters. The Red Sox have ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Richards, and Houck. The Jays rotation is not only comparable to the Sox rotation, but IMO it is better. Add that to the Jays far superior offense and it spells out that the Sox can’t competed with them.

 

Well obviously, I disagree. And so do most projection systems. Ryu should be good. Ray is projected to have an ERA and FIP well over 4. Matz, Stripling, and Pearson are all projected to have ERAs and FIPs in the 4.7 range. Roark is projected to be over 5.

 

The Jays have the advantage in offense, but I would not go so far as to say that their offense is vastly superior.

 

The Sox will compete with the Jays.

[Bellhorn04]

Much like in poker, being “all in” is only a good thing if you follow it up with a win...

 

Right. But then there's the old golf adage - 100% of putts that are short of the hole don't go in...

Edited February 21, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2021 WAR of 16.0 from Blue Jays pitchers and 15.0 from Red Sox pitchers:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14#SP

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

 

The projections for Red Sox starters are generous given the injury concerns.

 

Or not.

 

The projections sound about right. Perhaps Fangraphs is being generous with the Sox pitching staff, perhaps they are not being generous enough.

 

Fangraphs has the Blue Jays at 87 wins and the Sox at 86 wins.

 

Clay Davenport has the Blue Jays at 84 wins and the Sox at 85 wins.

 

PECOTA, which really doesn't like the Sox, has the Jays at 85 wins and the Sox at 80 wins.

 

The average of all 3 systems puts the Jays at 85.3 wins and the Sox at 83.7 wins.

[Kimmi]

Not to sound hypocritical and repetitive, but now that we've won 4, last one coming in 2018 which for me is very recent (been a fan since 1967), I'm ready for Bloom to build a strong foundation that will yield playoff contending team for years to come. I'm willing to wait and enjoy watching the process.

 

We paid a heavy price for our recent championship.

 

The biggest is giving out long term contract(s) to over 30 pitchers after stating that that's something we probably won't do. But on the heels of two last place finishes, I think Henry panicked and hired a 'fixer' that would yield a winner immediately. Damn the future. Gratification now. Mission accomplished.

 

Going into the 2021 season, we have $53M in non productive payroll, almost 25% of total payroll. $16M belongs to Price that will have another year left. $13M is for Pedey but I can overlook that, he probably got a bad medical advice or he chose unwisely. Rest belongs to Chris Sale. I'm guessing 99% of us are big fans of Chris. I will never second guess the trade. It was a great trade and I'd do it again every time. But it's the extension that we jumped the gun on that MAY come to haunt us. We'll just have to wait and see. You have to evaluate each contract separately.

 

If you look at this team in a $150M payroll context, then even having a chance to compete this year would be an achievement. I'm not counting on Sale this year.

 

Going forward, it will be interesting to see how Bloom deals with E Rod's pending free agency. Eovaldi has two years remaining. I think both Richards and Perez signings was in keeping with Bloom's approach.

 

Bloom may become the best signing for the Sox.

 

I mostly agree with what you've posted here. I am definitely wanting to see Bloom build a strong foundation and build that sustainability that he talks about repeatedly. The criticism that I have about Dombrowski is that I don't think we needed to get to this point. IMO, we could have accomplished what we accomplished during his tenure without going to the extent that he did.

 

Interestingly, I am one in the minority that really doesn't have a problem with the Sale extension. Like with the Beckett extension, if you don't extend early, you risk either losing the player or having to pay a higher price.

 

In addition to ERod's pending free agency, Bloom needs to consider Bogaerts' possible opt out in 2022 (I believe).

 

I am a very big Bloom fan. I, too, am excited to watch the process over the next couple of years.

[Kimmi]

Exactly, and rightfully so.

 

Next winter we move the team into serious contender mode.

 

Agreed.

[Kimmi]

With the moves they kept making, the Red Sox were definitely going for it heading into -- and throughout -- 2018. But based on the contract extensions heading into 2019, I do think they were planning on sustainability. We can argue in hindsight of the wisdom of those contracts, but the front office, the team, and the fans certainly thought the Sox would continue to contend for another ring, at least in '19.

 

I really don't have any problems with the contract extensions of Sale or Eovaldi. That is not my issue. You don't build sustainability through contract extensions of free agents though. You build sustainability through a strong farm system and extending those players before they reach free agency, if possible. Sure, you also need the free agents, but it has to start with the farm system. IMO, the damage to our sustainability was done in the first two years of Dombrowski's reign, not in the latter years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Next winter will be really interesting for the Sox. Price is still on the books, but Pedey’s dead money falls off. ERod is a FA, so your only retained starters will be Eovaldi (last year of contract) and Sale. Bogaerts and JDM will enter their final guaranteed season as well. You’ll presumably have a better take on Casas, Dalbec, Durran, Houck and Downs. It’s less that the Sox will enter contender mode, more that they’ll be nearing blank slate mode, allowing them to spend tremendously and become a contender. Semantics i guess

[Kimmi]

Absolutely. They were all-in for 2019. Then everything went sideways.

 

I have never blamed Dombrowski for our lace of success in 2019.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely. They were all-in for 2019. Then everything went sideways.

 

Yes, and they may have even seen 2020 as a year to compete, with the reset coming in 2021.

 

We just lost Kimbrel & Kelly, who both had struggles in 2018. We added Eovaldi & Pearce for the full season, which was supposed to make up for some of the pen loss.

 

The way Kimbrel & Kelly pitched in 2019, I'm glad we let them walk.

[moonslav59]

I mostly agree with what you've posted here. I am definitely wanting to see Bloom build a strong foundation and build that sustainability that he talks about repeatedly. The criticism that I have about Dombrowski is that I don't think we needed to get to this point. IMO, we could have accomplished what we accomplished during his tenure without going to the extent that he did.

 

Interestingly, I am one in the minority that really doesn't have a problem with the Sale extension. Like with the Beckett extension, if you don't extend early, you risk either losing the player or having to pay a higher price.

 

In addition to ERod's pending free agency, Bloom needs to consider Bogaerts' possible opt out in 2022 (I believe).

 

I am a very big Bloom fan. I, too, am excited to watch the process over the next couple of years.

 

Sale was the best pitcher in the AL. It was a risk, but I was on board, too.

 

I also think DD went farther than he needed to, but in baseball, nothing is guaranteed. You, being a strong advocate of the "crap shoot" playoff philosophy, might think overkill is needed to give us optimal chances at winning a ring between 2016-2019 or even 2020.

 

As long as we got our ring, and 2018 was a magical season, I have no beef with DD. The drop off is what it is. It was expected and worth it.

 

I like what Bloom has done, so far, but the real test will come when he spends big. That's what sunk Ben, and to a lesser extent, DD.

[Nick]

Kimmi

"Interestingly, I am one in the minority that really doesn't have a problem with the Sale extension. Like with the Beckett extension, if you don't extend early, you risk either losing the player or having to pay a higher price."

 

It goes back to having a policy of extending for the purpose of buying out couple of years of free agency.

 

It is what it is with E Rod but we need to look at extending both Devers and Verdugo after this year. To me extension seems appropriate after arb year 1. Maybe buy out 2 or 3 years of free agency. These players tend to be younger and a four or five year deals seem appropriate.

 

The big question is what to do if you get a no from the player. I'd say look at trading. It's the optimal time. Offering a player with couple of years of control would entice contending teams. Similar to Sale. Obviously you need to get an adequate return. You can't be afraid to let a player go.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Next winter will be really interesting for the Sox. Price is still on the books, but Pedey’s dead money falls off. ERod is a FA, so your only retained starters will be Eovaldi (last year of contract) and Sale. Bogaerts and JDM will enter their final guaranteed season as well. You’ll presumably have a better take on Casas, Dalbec, Durran, Houck and Downs. It’s less that the Sox will enter contender mode, more that they’ll be nearing blank slate mode, allowing them to spend tremendously and become a contender. Semantics i guess

 

With all the one and two year deals signed since Bloom took over, we will have a heck of a lot more spending flexibility than just Pedey coming off the books. (Remember, teams mya be more likely to spend large and long, when they know a lot of money comes off the books the following winter, too- like Price & JD- both gave us nothing in 2020.)

 

Off the books next winter:

$$$

13.8 Pedey

2.8 Beni

 

10.0 Richards (option)

8.9 Ottavino

8.8 ERod

4.6 Vaz (option)

4.5 Barnes

4.5 Perez(option)

3.0 Gonzalez

(ABOUT $60M! Plus, maybe we go over the tax line by $19M, so maybe $79M!)

 

Off the books after 2022:

16.0 Price

 

22.0 JD

20.0 Bogey (opt out)

17.0 Eovaldi

7.0 EHern

1.9 Andriese

1.6 Plawecki

1.5 Sawamura

 

That's another $85M off the books, with only Bogey's name jumping out loudly.

 

There is a real potential for serious improvements next winter and the one afterwards.

 

While replacing guys like Bogey, ERod and maybe a couple more on the list above will be difficult. there is so much sunken cost being lost, that it seems like we can keep who we want or replace them with equal players PLUS add some serious signees.

 

Teams that spend near or over the Lux tax line do not stay non contenders for all that long, unless they have several sunken larger & long contracts on the books.

 

We will be playoff contenders or close to it, this year. We will spend way more than this winter, next winter.

 

Sure, we may spend poorly, like Ben did with HRam and Pablo, but expecting that is not reasonable.

[moonslav59]

Kimmi

"Interestingly, I am one in the minority that really doesn't have a problem with the Sale extension. Like with the Beckett extension, if you don't extend early, you risk either losing the player or having to pay a higher price."

 

It goes back to having a policy of extending for the purpose of buying out couple of years of free agency.

 

It is what it is with E Rod but we need to look at extending both Devers and Verdugo after this year. To me extension seems appropriate after arb year 1. Maybe buy out 2 or 3 years of free agency. These players tend to be younger and a four or five year deals seem appropriate.

 

The big question is what to do if you get a no from the player. I'd say look at trading. It's the optimal time. Offering a player with couple of years of control would entice contending teams. Similar to Sale. Obviously you need to get an adequate return. You can't be afraid to let a player go.

 

That's the hardest choice a GM has to make.

 

The Rays seem to get it right, nearly everytime.

[a700hitter]

Well obviously, I disagree. And so do most projection systems. Ryu should be good. Ray is projected to have an ERA and FIP well over 4. Matz, Stripling, and Pearson are all projected to have ERAs and FIPs in the 4.7 range. Roark is projected to be over 5.

 

The Jays have the advantage in offense, but I would not go so far as to say that their offense is vastly superior.

 

The Sox will compete with the Jays.

I am memorializing a portion of your post in my signature to see if you are are right come August/September.

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly remain in contact with free agent Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

[notin]

As much as I’d like Bradley back, my fear is the Sox already think they have a LHH outfielder to compliment Renfroe in LF with Marwin Gonzalez...

[Bellhorn04]

As much as I’d like Bradley back, my fear is the Sox already think they have a LHH outfielder to compliment Renfroe in LF with Marwin Gonzalez...

 

Gonzo's meager career .732 OPS vs. RHP tends to belie that premise.

[moonslav59]

As much as I’d like Bradley back, my fear is the Sox already think they have a LHH outfielder to compliment Renfroe in LF with Marwin Gonzalez...

 

Cordero looks like the better bet, but looks to be our CF'er.

[moonslav59]

As much as I’d like Bradley back, my fear is the Sox already think they have a LHH outfielder to compliment Renfroe in LF with Marwin Gonzalez...

 

I've been firmly against paying more than $5M/1 for JBJ, but if he goes for $6M, I think I'd have preferred him to Marwin + Sawamura.

[moonslav59]

Gonzo's meager career .732 OPS vs. RHP tends to belie that premise.

 

Chavis his RHPs at .740, but his sample size is small and fueled by early success.

 

He's .699 v LHPs.

[notin]

Gonzo's meager career .732 OPS vs. RHP tends to belie that premise.

 

I did say I fear it. We do have a manager that likes him...

[notin]

Cordero looks like the better bet, but looks to be our CF'er.

 

I think Cordero should be the CF. Soxprospects has him in LF with Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. Renfroe certainly has the arm for RF, but I don’t think he can cover it in Fenway...

[Kimmi]

Sale was the best pitcher in the AL. It was a risk, but I was on board, too.

 

I also think DD went farther than he needed to, but in baseball, nothing is guaranteed. You, being a strong advocate of the "crap shoot" playoff philosophy, might think overkill is needed to give us optimal chances at winning a ring between 2016-2019 or even 2020.

 

As long as we got our ring, and 2018 was a magical season, I have no beef with DD. The drop off is what it is. It was expected and worth it.

 

I like what Bloom has done, so far, but the real test will come when he spends big. That's what sunk Ben, and to a lesser extent, DD.

 

Actually, it's because I'm a strong believer in the 'crap shoot' playoff theory that I don't think overkill is a good idea. Build a team to win in the regular season. Don't focus on trying to put the team over the top in the playoffs.

 

I like what Bloom has done so far as well. It will be a while before the final verdict will be out on him.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi

"Interestingly, I am one in the minority that really doesn't have a problem with the Sale extension. Like with the Beckett extension, if you don't extend early, you risk either losing the player or having to pay a higher price."

 

It goes back to having a policy of extending for the purpose of buying out couple of years of free agency.

 

It is what it is with E Rod but we need to look at extending both Devers and Verdugo after this year. To me extension seems appropriate after arb year 1. Maybe buy out 2 or 3 years of free agency. These players tend to be younger and a four or five year deals seem appropriate.

 

The big question is what to do if you get a no from the player. I'd say look at trading. It's the optimal time. Offering a player with couple of years of control would entice contending teams. Similar to Sale. Obviously you need to get an adequate return. You can't be afraid to let a player go.

 

I don't disagree with any of this Nick. I think it's a good idea to extend players who are in their arb eligible years, but that type of deal has to benefit both the team and the player. And the player has to be willing to do it.

 

While I am not on board with Tatis' 14 year deal, I like his extension a lot more than I like Mookie's deal with the Dodgers.

 

And if you know that it's very unlikely that you'll be able to extend a player, then you have to be willing to let him go, as much as it might hurt.

[Kimmi]

I am memorializing a portion of your post in my signature to see if you are are right come August/September.

 

Ah, this it the way to do it. Quote the post in your signature so that when the time comes, you don't have to search through a bunch of history to throw said post back in someone's face. LOL

 

Jacko should take notes on this.

[moonslav59]

I think Cordero should be the CF. Soxprospects has him in LF with Verdugo in CF and Renfroe in RF. Renfroe certainly has the arm for RF, but I don’t think he can cover it in Fenway...

 

I agree, but his splits scream for a platoon.

[moonslav59]

Actually, it's because I'm a strong believer in the 'crap shoot' playoff theory that I don't think overkill is a good idea. Build a team to win in the regular season. Don't focus on trying to put the team over the top in the playoffs.

 

I like what Bloom has done so far as well. It will be a while before the final verdict will be out on him.

 

Fair point.

[a700hitter]

Ah, this it the way to do it. Quote the post in your signature so that when the time comes, you don't have to search through a bunch of history to throw said post back in someone's face. LOL

 

Jacko should take notes on this.

And since it is in my signature, you can do the "I told you so" without any effort.