2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

Pablo Sandoval remains a reasonable comp for Rafael Devers through their age 23 seasons (although at those points Sandoval had four years of team control remaining while Devers has only three).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml

 

An extension carries risks and rewards because of the wide range of potential outcomes.

 

There is a risk, and Pablo did implode while in his "prime."

 

You picked the worst comp, which is understandable from a non Sox fan, but there are plenty of comps where an .830 hitter ar age 24, with almost 1700 ML PAs under his belt, have gone on to do better and even great things.

 

Baseball Reference compares him to Scott Rolen at age 23. I don't see Pablos name in the top 10 list.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why should he get worse after age 24?

 

His .830 career OPs, put together at ages 20-23, blows the league average away at 1B and even more so at 3B.

 

The question is, will he be significantly better than .830 for a few years, as he moves through his prime years?

 

It is a gamble, but I'm expecting a big improvement over the next few years.

 

The kid came up raw as raw can be, and he still did very well. He seems to have smoothed out some of the rough edges, but he's a pure hitter.

 

I'd extend him to more than 6 years $150.

 

Okay, kids these days either want the uber contract or they want an early entry into FA via an opt out.

 

Here is what I think would be offered to him.

 

10 year extension (negates this year, where he is slated to earn $4.575 mil.) $250 mil. Opt out after year 5 (he will be 29). If opt out is triggered, Sox get a 1 yr $25 mil team option. If they trigger the option, they cannot offer arbitration. Essentially turns the deal into a minimum guaranteed 6 year deal for Devers (why would he opt out and not have his option triggered?) at $150 mil. If he goes in the tank or gets hurt, he can stick around until he is 34.

[moonslav59]

Okay, kids these days either want the uber contract or they want an early entry into FA via an opt out.

 

Here is what I think would be offered to him.

 

10 year extension (negates this year, where he is slated to earn $4.575 mil.) $250 mil. Opt out after year 5 (he will be 29). If opt out is triggered, Sox get a 1 yr $25 mil team option. If they trigger the option, they cannot offer arbitration. Essentially turns the deal into a minimum guaranteed 6 year deal for Devers (why would he opt out and not have his option triggered?) at $150 mil. If he goes in the tank or gets hurt, he can stick around until he is 34.

 

That seems more like it. Give him a big signing bonus like Tatis got. That goes a long way.

[mvp 78]

Okay, kids these days either want the uber contract or they want an early entry into FA via an opt out.

 

Here is what I think would be offered to him.

 

10 year extension (negates this year, where he is slated to earn $4.575 mil.) $250 mil. Opt out after year 5 (he will be 29). If opt out is triggered, Sox get a 1 yr $25 mil team option. If they trigger the option, they cannot offer arbitration. Essentially turns the deal into a minimum guaranteed 6 year deal for Devers (why would he opt out and not have his option triggered?) at $150 mil. If he goes in the tank or gets hurt, he can stick around until he is 34.

 

So you have no problem paying him like an elite 3B then?

[jacksonianmarch]

No, I’m saying this is what it would take to get him to sign an extension with the smallest AAV

[Kimmi]

My method was very crude. I won't deny the Jays offense looks better, on paper, but I think it might be closer than a 5.7 WAR differential.

 

The Jays probably have a slight advantage over us, but it's not like they are going to be light years better than us.

 

It will be an interesting race.

[Kimmi]

An individual young player maybe, but a group of young inexperienced players need structure. We will see but over the last twenty Yeats I have seen too many Jays teams not live up to their early hype.and collapse like a cheap folding chair.

 

The Jays do have a habit of fading down the stretch when they get off to a strong start.

[Kimmi]

But where was the overkill, exactly - the Sale trade? I would argue that we needed him pretty badly and it wasn't overkill. In his first season we won 93 games. Might have only won 88 or so without him. That doesn't look like overkill.

 

The overkill started with Kimbral.

 

When we traded for Sale, I posted that I thought that was an overkill type of move.

[moonslav59]

The overkill started with Kimbral.

 

When we traded for Sale, I posted that I thought that was an overkill type of move.

 

I loved the Sale trade.

 

I thought the Kimbrel & Pompom deals were overkill, to some extent.

 

The Thornburg and Smith trades both sucked in hindsight, but made sense at the time.

[moonslav59]

First 2 ABs in college- same inning: 2 grand slams...

 

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/caleb-pendleton-two-grand-slams_n_6033e8d1c5b67c32961f910a

[notin]

So it’s February 22nd.

 

Jake Odorizzi is still unsigned. He was arguably the second best free agent starting pitcher. His demands are reportedly reasonable and for less late bloomer and off and on closer Liam Hendricks actually received. Yet no one wants Odorizzi?

 

Either he has some medical issues or a seriously toxic personality...

[moonslav59]

So it’s February 22nd.

 

Jake Odorizzi is still unsigned. He was arguably the second best free agent starting pitcher. His demands are reportedly reasonable and for less late bloomer and off and on closer Liam Hendricks actually received. Yet no one wants Odorizzi?

 

Either he has some medical issues or a seriously toxic personality...

 

Every team must be in on "the secret."

[Bellhorn04]

The overkill started with Kimbral.

 

When we traded for Sale, I posted that I thought that was an overkill type of move.

 

To me the only overkill with Kimbrel was giving up Logan Allen, which apparently wasn't necessary.

 

Other than that I don't see either move as overkill. We needed these guys.

 

But I know we'll always have a difference of opinion on this, which is fine.

[mvp 78]

The Jays do have a habit of fading down the stretch when they get off to a strong start.

 

I'm surprised they've stuck with Charlie Montoyo this long. They have a very talented lineup, but always seem to be undisciplined. As a team, they make some weird mistakes and decisions at times. I don't know if it's just because of the age of the players or they just aren't coached well.

[mvp 78]

So it’s February 22nd.

 

Jake Odorizzi is still unsigned. He was arguably the second best free agent starting pitcher. His demands are reportedly reasonable and for less late bloomer and off and on closer Liam Hendricks actually received. Yet no one wants Odorizzi?

 

Either he has some medical issues or a seriously toxic personality...

 

Maybe it was the 6.12 FIP from last year? Maybe it's because he doesn't throw overly hard or get a lot of spin? There's just nothing that stands out about him. If he didn't have such a strong 2019, I don't think people would see him in the same light.

[notin]

Maybe it was the 6.12 FIP from last year? Maybe it's because he doesn't throw overly hard or get a lot of spin? There's just nothing that stands out about him. If he didn't have such a strong 2019, I don't think people would see him in the same light.

 

Maybe.

 

But I still think he wouldn't be seen in a better light than Julio Teheran...

Edited February 23, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

To me the only overkill with Kimbrel was giving up Logan Allen, which apparently wasn't necessary.

 

Other than that I don't see either move as overkill. We needed these guys.

 

But I know we'll always have a difference of opinion on this, which is fine.

 

We did need a closer, and I agree on the Logan Allen aspect, but to me it was more about Kimbrel making free agent-type money, at the time. It was like trading 4 prospects to sign a FA to top closer dollars.

 

I'm also a "moneyball" believer (for the most part) and think overpaying for a closer is not good policy.

 

(That changed, quickly, as closer money sky-rocketed right after the signing.)

 

We can look in hindsight and say Guerra and Espinoza amounted to jack, but to me, it wasn't about hoarding prospects vs trading them: it was a about a balance.

 

I'd do the Sale trade 100 times over and over. I'm not saying my ideas were any better than DD's. I wanted us to trade some of the pieces used to get Kimbrel, Pom, Thornburg to get Quintana from the CWS. I'm not sure that would have worked out, too well. He went from an ERA+ of 115 with the CWS to 101 with the Cubs. (He was younger than Sale and had one more year of team control.)

[Bellhorn04]

We did need a closer, and I agree on the Logan Allen aspect, but to me it was more about Kimbrel making free agent-type money, at the time. It was like trading 4 prospects to sign a FA to top closer dollars.

 

And I guess you and I will always disagree on this one. I think Kimbrel's contract was very favorable for the Sox. Yes, the annual salary was close to the top at the time, but it was only a 2 year guarantee with a team option for a third. Or to put it another way, Kimbrel was only guaranteed 24 million, and next offseason Chapman got 86 million guaranteed - about 3.5 times as much.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We did need a closer, and I agree on the Logan Allen aspect, but to me it was more about Kimbrel making free agent-type money, at the time. It was like trading 4 prospects to sign a FA to top closer dollars.

 

I'm also a "moneyball" believer (for the most part) and think overpaying for a closer is not good policy.

 

 

Acquiring "established" closers can also be a crapshoot. Whether you're investing money or prospect capital, it would seem most important to get a guy on his way up -- and not in the other direction. At about the same free agent contract, Hendriks in his prime seems safer than Papelbon past his. But didn't Edwin Diaz look like a good get at age 25? What did Seattle know that they didn't tell the Mets?

[notin]

Acquiring "established" closers can also be a crapshoot. Whether you're investing money or prospect capital, it would seem most important to get a guy on his way up -- and not in the other direction. At about the same free agent contract, Hendriks in his prime seems safer than Papelbon past his. But didn't Edwin Diaz look like a good get at age 25? What did Seattle know that they didn't tell the Mets?

 

Possibly the same info they withheld about Carson Smith?

 

Seattle seems like a lousy team to acquire a closer from...

[mvp 78]

Possibly the same info they withheld about Carson Smith?

 

Seattle seems like a lousy team to acquire a closer from...

 

Still mad about the Slocumb deal.

[notin]

Still mad about the Slocumb deal.

 

Well, we did not acquire their closer. We sent them ours....

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we did not acquire their closer. We sent them ours....

 

He meant Seattle is still mad.

[mvp 78]

He meant Seattle is still mad.

 

So now they have to deal off their s***** relievers as revenge.

[notin]

So now they have to deal off their s***** relievers as revenge.

 

Wait until they remember what they got in exchange for Omar Vizquel and David Ortiz...

[Bellhorn04]

Wait until they remember what they got in exchange for Omar Vizquel and David Ortiz...

 

Yankee fans still bemoan the Jay Buhner trade, OTOH.

[harmony]

So now they have to deal off their s***** relievers as revenge.

In 26 appearances last year closer Edwin Diaz posted the lowest ERA of his MLB career:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/diazed04.shtml

[harmony]

Wait until they remember what they got in exchange for Omar Vizquel and David Ortiz...

In exchange for Darren Bragg ... Darren Bragg!!! ... Seattle got 145 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over 2,093 innings from lefthander Jamie Moyer, a one-time All Star who three times finished in the top six in Cy Young voting.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml#all_transactions_other

 

Win some, lose some.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In exchange for Darren Bragg ... Darren Bragg!!! ... Seattle got 145 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA over 2,093 innings from lefthander Jamie Moyer, a one-time All Star who three times finished in the top six in Cy Young voting.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml#all_transactions_other

 

Win some, lose some.

 

So he recorded over 6,000 outs with the Ms... that's the kind of warrior that WAR could go to WAR with. Jamie Warrior...

[dgalehouse]

And I guess you and I will always disagree on this one. I think Kimbrel's contract was very favorable for the Sox. Yes, the annual salary was close to the top at the time, but it was only a 2 year guarantee with a team option for a third. Or to put it another way, Kimbrel was only guaranteed 24 million, and next offseason Chapman got 86 million guaranteed - about 3.5 times as much.

 

It always amazes me how so many of the analytics devotees undervalue the importance of a closer. To me , there is nothing more frustrating and demoralizing than blowing the lead in the ninth inning.