2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

Perhaps the issue I'm remembering with Kimbrel was that when he came in in the 8th for a 4 or 5 out save, he didn't do well in the 9th.

 

8th & 9th inning games by Kimbrel...

 

IP/ER

2016:

1.1/1 (BS in 9th)

1.1/0

1.1/0

2017:

1.2/0

1.1/0

1.1/1 (S)

1.1/0

1.1/1 (BS)

2018:

1.1/0 (W)

1.1/0

1.1/2 (BS)

 

8th only:

2016:

0.2/0

1.0/1 (no 9th IP)

2017:

0.2/0 (H)

2018:

0.2/2 (BS) no ninth inning pitched

1.0/0

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

K% to BB% is a good "new tool."

 

Here are the best RP'ers, since 2001 (with 150+ IP):

 

35 Josh Hader

31 Kimbrel

31 E Diaz

31 Jansen

30 Chapman

29 Uehara

28 Betances

28 Greene

26 Yates, A Miller & Giles

25 Doolittle & Wagner

24 WSmith, Osuna, L Hendricks & May

23 Knebel, Pagan & Smoltz

22 Robertson, Hand, FVazquez, Lugo, Romo, Papelbon, Neris & Nen

 

K/BB Leaders

7.9 Koji

6.7 CMartin

6.3 osuna

5.8 Doolittle

5.7 CGreene

5.6 Smoltz & jansen

5.5 Rivera

5.3 Scribner

5.2 Y Garcia & Hendricks

 

 

 

Great stats. Koji was a machine, but a quietly efficient machine; we could hardly hear a hum -- so easy to take for granted.

 

The other traumatic event that maybe can't be traced as much is when erratic relievers allow baserunners to advance or even score on wild pitches. WPs don't even have to result in a hit or walk -- pitchers can still retire the batter -- after serious damage done.

 

Lester was tough in the postseason, but Cubs fans had to be horrified in Game Seven of the '16 WS when he came in and bounced two runs home on the same wild pitch! To his credit, he bought everyone in Chicago a beer when he left town last autumn.

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox should have some roster moves by the end of the day, Cora said.

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Red Sox should have some roster moves by the end of the day, Cora said.

 

+ Marwin

 

What else?

[mvp 78]

+ Marwin

 

What else?

 

Plawecki off COVID list?

[notin]

Yup, there's certainly a difference between giving up weak contact or getting tagged. My suggestion of WHIP was more an accounting for guys missing the strike zone.

 

Use Zone % on Fangraphs

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Use Zone % on Fangraphs

 

I actually found some interesting stats on bref in the "Pitches" category under Pitcher Comparisons...

 

... for Kimbrel (2010-20), Barnes (2014-20) and Uehara (2009-17).

 

Strike %: Kimbrel 64.3, Barnes 61.6, Koji 70.9.

1st Pitch Strike %: Kimbrel 59.7, Barnes 57.9, Koji 68.0.

 

3-0 counts seen: Kimbrel 102, Barnes 61, Koji 38.

0-2 counts seen: Kimbrel 782, Barnes 333, Koji 658.

 

3-pitch Ks: Kimbrel 203, Barnes 56, Koji 125.

 

And my favorite:

4-pitch walks: Kimbrel 40, Barnes 22... Koji Uehara 4.

 

Just for perspective, I looked up Eckerlsy (1975-1998)... 72.1 and 69.7; 3-0: 68; 0-2: 1,013; 3-pitch Ks: 163; 4-pitch walks: 11... in 24 years.

[harmony]

Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden:

 

[mvp 78]

Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden:

 

 

rip

[mvp 78]

That was the move to make Marwin official.

[moonslav59]

I actually found some interesting stats on bref in the "Pitches" category under Pitcher Comparisons...

 

... for Kimbrel (2010-20), Barnes (2014-20) and Uehara (2009-17).

 

Strike %: Kimbrel 64.3, Barnes 61.6, Koji 70.9.

1st Pitch Strike %: Kimbrel 59.7, Barnes 57.9, Koji 68.0.

 

3-0 counts seen: Kimbrel 102, Barnes 61, Koji 38.

0-2 counts seen: Kimbrel 782, Barnes 333, Koji 658.

 

3-pitch Ks: Kimbrel 203, Barnes 56, Koji 125.

 

And my favorite:

4-pitch walks: Kimbrel 40, Barnes 22... Koji Uehara 4.

 

Just for perspective, I looked up Eckerlsy (1975-1998)... 72.1 and 69.7; 3-0: 68; 0-2: 1,013; 3-pitch Ks: 163; 4-pitch walks: 11... in 24 years.

 

I can't find career or specific time period OPS against for pitchers anywhere.

 

Seems like a telling stat.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox designate for assignment righthander Marcus Walden:

 

 

He might get picked up by someone, although his good stretches seemed like smoke & mirrors, to me.

 

He had a 3.79 ERA from 2018-2019 (93 IP)

3.43 FIP

126 ERA+

1.187 WHIP

0.6 HR/9

[a700hitter]

He might get picked up by someone, although his good stretches seemed like smoke & mirrors, to me.

 

He had a 3.79 ERA from 2018-2019 (93 IP)

3.43 FIP

126 ERA+

1.187 WHIP

0.6 HR/9

He's at best a journeyman.

[notin]

He might get picked up by someone, although his good stretches seemed like smoke & mirrors, to me.

 

He had a 3.79 ERA from 2018-2019 (93 IP)

3.43 FIP

126 ERA+

1.187 WHIP

0.6 HR/9

 

Maybe they can trade him to Tampa for another prospect...

[moonslav59]

He's at best a journeyman.

 

Agreed- who just happened to put up good numbers for a 90 inning stretch.

 

I had him on my DFA list all winter.

 

I won't miss him.

[moonslav59]

Maybe they can trade him to Tampa for another prospect...

 

Some team might give us something. I'm not expecting anything or anything promising.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed- who just happened to put up good numbers for a 90 inning stretch.

 

I had him on my DFA list all winter.

 

I won't miss him.

 

You are The Iceman LOL

[moonslav59]

You are The Iceman LOL

 

He did well for us- better than I think his talent level indicated.

 

I'm thankful for his service, especially in 2018.

 

I didn't expect him to pitch for the Sox, this year, unless we use 20+ pitchers, and even then, maybe 10 IP max.

 

I wish him well, but not seeing his name on the 40 man roster does not upset me.

[moonslav59]

The AL East Contenders and their rotations:

 

Yankee Rotation:

Gerrit Cole (30-31): A true ace and a top 5 CYA the last 3 years. 162 ERA+ from 2018-2020. Never misses a start.

Luis Severino (27): True ace skills and was a top 9 CYA in 2017 & 2018 (137 ERA+). Injury issues have limited him to just 12 IP the last 2 years combined, and he is starting the year on the 60 day IL.

Corey Kluber (34-35): Was a true ace for 5 straight years (top 9 CYA all 5 and top 3 in 4 of those years, including winning it twice). 151 ERA+ those 5 seasons. Injury issues limited him to just 37 IP the last 2 years combined (86 ERA+).

Jameson Taillon: Very promising start to his career in Pittsburg (112 ERA+ in first 4 seasons). 119 ERA+ from 2018-2019, but injury issues limited him to just 37 IP the last 2 years combined.

Jordan Montgomery (28): Had a good season back in 2017 (116 ERA+), but has just 75 IP in the last 2 years combined (92 ERA+). He has 48 IP in MLB the last 2 years (82 ERA+). The guy has promise, but he has a lot to prove.

Deivi Garcia (21-22): Very young and untested but very promising. 34 IP in 2020 (86 ERA+). High K (12.7) and BB (3.8) rate in the minors that got worse in AA (14.4/4.3) and AAA (10.1/4.5). Nice depth but questionable outlook.

Michael King (26-27): Just 29 IP at the ML level (61 ERA+) and not many IP at AA (95 w 3.61 ERA) and AAA (63 w 2.93 ERA))after coming from college baseball. Not a big K pitcher (7.5 in minors but a decent 1.6 BB/9.)

Domingo German (28-29): Zero IP in 2020 and domestic abuse issues cloud his 2021 outlook. Had a decent 111 ER+ for the Yanks in 2019 in 143 IP, but he had an 82 ERA+ from 2017-2018. His 10-3 KK/9 to BB/9 rate is not bad. It was 8.9/ 2.7 in the minors.

 

Blue Jays Rotation:

Hyun Jin Ryu (34): Can pitch like an ace (179 ERA+ from 2018-2020), but has only pitched over 83 IP once in the last 3 years. He pitched 127 IP in 2017 and just 5 IP, combined the previous 2 seasons.

Nate Pearson (24-25): Pitched 18 innings in 2020 (74 ERA+ in rookie year). Played 1 NCAA season and 123 IP in the minors over 3 seasons. Did very well (2.19 ERA and 0.868 WHIP)

Robbie Ray (29): Has a career 103 ERA+ but seemed to be declining, recently. 134 ERA+ from 2017-2018 and a 93 ERA+ the last 2 years in 226 IP. Not a big innings eater- never going over 175 IP.

Steven Matz (29-30): Inconsistent career with a few injury issues. Hasn’t had an ERA+ over 97 since 2016 (82 in the last 4 years and 81 the last 2 years). Never pitched 161+ IP in the bigs.

Tanner Rourk (34): Was an innings eater from 2014-2018 (112 ERA+). Has a 95 ERA+ since 2017 (92 the last 2 years combined).

Ross Stripling(31): Has not always been a starter and only went over 120 IP, once back in 2018. Had a 110 ERA+ with the Dodgers in 420 IP in 5 years. It slipped to 71 in 16 IP with the Jays, last year.

Thomas Hatch (26): Only 26 IP at the ML level (162 ERA+). Had 2 years of college and 403 IP in the minors (3.99 ERA/ 1.318 WHIP). Skipped AAA.

Trent Thornton, Anthony Kay, TJ Zeuch: Who?

 

Rays Rotation:

Tyler Glasnow (27): Had a lot of promise but never really came through. He’s only pitched more than 62 IP ONE TIME! His career His career ERA+ is 95, but it is 129 with the Rays in 174 IP over the last 3 seasons.

Ryan Yarbrough (29): Hasn’t always been a SP’er. In 345 IP over his 3 year career, he has a 108 ERA+ and about a 7 to 2 K/9 to BB/9 ratio.

Chris Archer (32-33): Started out well (115 ERA+ in first 4 seasons with TBR. Was at 102 the next two years and was traded. He had an 89 ERA+ from 2018-2019 and had zero IP in 2020.

Michael Wacha (29-30): Started out very promisingly (118 ERA+ first 3 years), slipped to 91 the next 2 years before doing okay in year 6 9121 but only 84 IP). He’s had an 82 ERA+ the last 2 years (160 IP).

Rich Hill (41-42): Has had some great numbers, even in his old age, when he pitches. His problem has always been injuries. Weirdly, he’s put up about half of his career IP at age 36 and beyond! (136 ERA+) He went over 132 IP twice in LA (2017 & 2018), but he had just 97 IP the last 2 seasons combined (158 ERA+).

Collin McHugh (33-34): Topped out at 204 IP in 2015, but has not gone more than 75 in any of his last 3 seasons- some spent as a RP’er (126 ERA+) before getting zero IP in 2020. Can pitch well, when he pitches, but he’s averaged about 52 IP the last 4 seasons.

Josh Fleming (24-25): Promising starter. 153 ERA+ in 32 IP, last year. Only has 21 IP at AAA and 294 total in the minors (3.40 ERA/ 1.150 WHIP and low K rate of 6.6. BB/9 at 1.6.)

Shane McClanahan & Luis Patino: Young promising SP’ers.

 

People laugh and point fingers at the Sox starters or speak of the huge questions surrounding so many of them, but look above.

Edited February 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[kenmeister]

I'm impressed at how much work you put into that post.

 

Reminds me that I'm still miffed the Sox didn't land Kluber. Time will tell whether that was a good thing or a bad thing.

[moonslav59]

I'm impressed at how much work you put into that post.

 

Reminds me that I'm still miffed the Sox didn't land Kluber. Time will tell whether that was a good thing or a bad thing.

 

The 37 IP in the last 2 years raises my eyebrow, but he seems like a better signing than Richards.

 

I'm no doctor, and one might be needed to determine the chances he regains 100%, 80% or less than 60% of his former skill set.

 

He also turns 35, this year, so he might have seen steep decline, even without the serious injury that stopped his streak of dominance.

 

If Cole, Kluber, Severino & Taillon all pitch at their best, there will be no stopping them, IMO, but that's a hug if.

 

(On a lesser scale, if Sale, Richards, ERod and Eovaldi all pitch at their best, we'd be a top contending team, but as with the Yanks, that's a hug if, too.)

[Thunder]

I'm impressed at how much work you put into that post.

 

Reminds me that I'm still miffed the Sox didn't land Kluber. Time will tell whether that was a good thing or a bad thing.

 

I also wanted to see him and Bauer in Sox uniforms, but was talked out of it by a friend. Way too much risk for both of them

[Bellhorn04]

You could probably make a case that in the entire AL East, the only sure thing starter is Cole LOL

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox Rotation:

 

Chris Sale (32): The guy was a stud and an ace right out of the gates. His career 140 ERA+ is among the best of the best, this era. His lowest ERA+ of his career, before the 109 in 2019 was 114 in 2015. His first 2 years with the Sox were mind-boggling: 146 ERA+ (29-12 2.56 w a K/9 of 13.2 and BB/9 of 1.9 and 7.08 K/BB. His career 5.37 K/BB rate is a ML record.) Like Kluber, he was dominant but suffered a major injury. Zero IP in 2020 and starts the season on the 60 day IL, which could end up being more like 90-100 days.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez (28): He's been a bright spot for the Sox since day one. He has a career 113 ERA+ but was 118 from '17 to '19 and 122 the previous 2 seasons before missing 2020 with COVID related issues. His main issue was always too many pitches per IP, and he had finally pitched over 200 IP in 2019, when COVID struck him down hard. He says he feels great.

 

Garrett Richards (32-33): Had some great success with the Angels for a 5 years stretch- not quite like Sale or Kluber, but some very nice numbers, except for not pitching over 76 IP the last 5 seasons. Had a 108 ERA+ with LA but was at 122 the last 5 years there. His 92 ERA+ in just 60 IP the last 2 years is concerning, but he did start 10 games out of 60, last season.

 

Nathan Eovaldi (31): Still rather young with low innings pitched (966) in 9 years of MLB. He had a great 13 starts for the Sox in 2018 and 64 IP, counting the playoffs (with some fine relief work, too. He's hit over 112 ERA+ with 100+ IP, twice in his career and had a 126 ERA+ in his 9 starts, last season.

 

Martin Perez (30): Nothing special, here. He hit 114, once and had a 102 ERA+ from '16-'17 before hitting 104, for us, in 2020 in 12 starts. A decent 4/5 type starter, but may not be what we hope (84 ERA+ from '18-'19).

 

Nick Pivetta (28): Nothing very impressive with his numbers, but he's had some hype over his talent. His best stretch was '18-'19 and an 85 ERA+. Despite all this, he shows real promise.

 

Tanner Houck (24-25): Came out of no where. It's hard to get all gooey over 3 starts, but that 895 ERA+ kinda grabs you. Out of college, he only had 25 IP at AAA (3.96) and 83 IP at AA (4.25), where he walked a lot (about 4 per 9) but also K'd a few (about 9 per 9).

 

Mata, Seabold, Andriese, Whitlock: some promise, here.

Edited February 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You could probably make a case that in the entire AL East, the only sure thing starter is Cole LOL

 

Come on, Sox fan... Martin Perez!

[Thunder]

Biggest question with our rotation is staying healthy. Two guys are notoriously injury prone, and two others are coming off of life-changing injuries

[moonslav59]

Biggest question with our rotation is staying healthy. Two guys are notoriously injury prone, and two others are coming off of life-changing injuries

 

Yes, and something similar could be said about all of the top 4 ALE teams' starters.

[Thunder]

Yes, and something similar could be said about all of the top 4 ALE teams' starters.

 

I wonder why Rich Hill signed with Tampa. He probably thinks the A/C at the Trop will prevent his fingers from blistering. I know the Florida humidity won't do the trick.

[Swiharts Ghost]

The Red Sox Rotation:

 

Chris Sale (32): The guy was a stud and an ace right out of the gates. His career 140 ERA+ is among the best of the best, this era. His lowest ERA+ of his career, before the 109 in 2019 was 114 in 2015. His first 2 years with the Sox were mind-boggling: 146 ERA+ (29-12 2.56 w a K/9 of 13.2 and BB/9 of 1.9 and 7.08 K/BB. His career 5.37 K/BB rate is a ML record.) Like Kluber, he was dominant but suffered a major injury. Zero IP in 2020 and starts the season on the 60 day IL, which could end up being more like 90-100 days.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez (28): He's been a bright spot for the Sox since day one. He has a career 113 ERA+ but was 118 from '17 to '19 and 122 the previous 2 seasons before missing 2020 with COVID related issues. His main issue was always too many pitches per IP, and he had finally pitched over 200 IP in 2019, when COVID struck him down hard. He says he feels great.

 

Garrett Richards (32-33): Had some great success with the Angels for a 5 years stretch- not quite like Sale or Kluber, but some very nice numbers, except for not pitching over 76 IP the last 5 seasons. Had a 108 ERA+ with LA but was at 122 the last 5 years there. His 92 ERA+ in just 60 IP the last 2 years is concerning, but he did start 10 games out of 60, last season.

 

Nathan Eovaldi (31): Still rather young with low innings pitched (966) in 9 years of MLB. He had a great 13 starts for the Sox in 2018 and 64 IP, counting the playoffs (with some fine relief work, too. He's hit over 112 ERA+ with 100+ IP, twice in his career and had a 126 ERA+ in his 9 starts, last season.

 

Martin Perez (30): Nothing special, here. He hit 114, once and had a 102 ERA+ from '16-'17 before hitting 104, for us, in 2020 in 12 starts. A decent 4/5 type starter, but may not be what we hope (84 ERA+ from '18-'19).

 

Nick Pivetta (28): Nothing very impressive with his numbers, but he's had some hype over his talent. His best stretch was '18-'19 and an 85 ERA+. Despite all this, he shows real promise.

 

Tanner Houck (24-25): Came out of no where. It's hard to get all gooey over 3 starts, but that 895 ERA+ kinda grabs you. Out of college, he only had 25 IP at AAA (3.96) and 83 IP at AA (4.25), where he walked a lot (about 4 per 9) but also K'd a few (about 9 per 9).

 

Mata, Seabold, Andriese, Whitlock: some promise, here.

 

Thankyou Moon !!!

[mvp 78]

I wonder why Rich Hill signed with Tampa. He probably thinks the A/C at the Trop will prevent his fingers from blistering. I know the Florida humidity won't do the trick.

 

I think it was the opening in their rotation that did the trick.