2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Bellhorn04]

They're not signed by us yet, needless to say.

 

Apparently a bunch of teams are interested in Kluber.

Edited January 6, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[jacksonianmarch]

Kluber offers the highest upside. Both are reclamation plays. Odorizzi at his best is a 5 inning pitcher who is effective. Kluber at his best is a multi CY award winner

[moonslav59]

On the value front, Kluber and Odorizzi would be short term players who could flame out entirely and be jettisoned after 21 or they could show value and be trade assets at a minimum. If I was Kluber or Odorizzi and I had the choice between NY and Boston, I’d choose boston due to the lack of rotation depth

 

We're not getting Bauer or Tanaka, so...

[moonslav59]

Kluber offers the highest upside. Both are reclamation plays. Odorizzi at his best is a 5 inning pitcher who is effective. Kluber at his best is a multi CY award winner

 

Odorizzi does have a history of giving a little more than 5 IP/GS, even though a few seasons are barely over 5:

 

5.4 '14

6.0 '15

5.7 '16

 

5.1 '18

5.3 '19

[harmony]

Between 2015 and 2019, former Stetson University righthanders won four Cy Young Awards: Corey Kluber (2015, 2016) and Jacob deGrom (2018, 2019).

 

The next tall righthander out of Stetson to contend for the Cy Young Award: Seattle hopeful Logan Gilbert, the 35th-ranked prospect at MLB Pipeline:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gilber000log

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Or not.

[notin]

While i think Odorizzi is the best bet to have a good 2021 from start to finish between Sale, Odorizzi and Kluber, it doesn’t help the health questions that’ll be out there as he had a terrible and injury filled 2020. That being said, a lot of pitchers had a terrible 2020 and none of Jake’s injuries should linger. Prior to 2020, he made 28 starts per season for 6 consecutive years. Odorizzi is an effective back end rotation pitcher who is pretty much a twice through the lineup guy and then get the pen warm. He’s averaged around 5IP per start for most of his career. His K rate has fluctuated from very good (10 per 9) down to below average (7’s per 9). He’s a fly ball pitcher, which may not be a great mix for Fenway and he gives up a ton of HR’s on average. The glass half full people will point to a sub 1 HR/9IP, 10+ K/9IP and sub 2 BB/9IP 2019 and see a pitcher who is breaking out. The glass half empty can see a guy who doesn’t go deep into games who would come to a team with a horrible pen and see a bad matchup.

 

The one thing I can foresee for Odorizzi is a 1 year deal and the Sox can either use him for a surprise playoff run or really cash in on him if he shows he’s healthy at the deadline

 

Bloom is all about value, and Odorizzi does look like a value play here who will be a cinch to get rotation time. Many teams would be looking at him as a 5th starter, and that’s a dicey situation should he have a rough start. In Boston, he’d be a 2 and would get a ton of chances to continue on if he starts slow

 

If the Sox are only offering a one year deal, Odorizzi will not be in Boston. Kluber will likely take a one year deal, and Boston might even have an advantage signing him, as he lives in Winchester, MA. But Odorizzi is probably the third or fourth best SP on the market and is very likely getting at least 2 years. He’s not signing the same deal as Drew Smyly...

[moonslav59]

If the Sox are only offering a one year deal, Odorizzi will not be in Boston. Kluber will likely take a one year deal, and Boston might even have an advantage signing him, as he lives in Winchester, MA. But Odorizzi is probably the third or fourth best SP on the market and is very likely getting at least 2 years. He’s not signing the same deal as Drew Smyly...

 

Odorizzi may take a 1 year deal for 2 reasons:

 

1. COVID affect may increase value, next winter.

 

2. He may pitch more like 2018 than 2017 & 2019, thereby increasing his value, next winter.

 

I'm not saying he will take a one year deal, but who knows?

 

[moonslav59]

Dodgers sign Blake Treinen $17.5M/2 w $8M club option ($1.5M buyout) , so $19M/3 or $25.5M/3.

 

Tigers sign Robbie Grossman $10M/2 w up yo $500K bonuses.

 

[dannycater]

In some ways, you had it worse than Buckner.

 

I would agree. There seemed to more outrage over DC because of New York's considerable success with Sparky in the pen (then Gossage supplanted him in the main role)...

[moonslav59]

I would agree. There seemed to more outrage over DC because of New York's considerable success with Sparky in the pen (then Gossage supplanted him in the main role)...

 

What was lost in all that mess was that you were a pretty decent player.

Edited January 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

@Rotoworld_BB

Odorizzi reportedly seeks three years, $36-42M

 

Is he worth Ryan Dempster money?

[mvp 78]

To me, Odorizzi is a back of the rotation guy. I'd rather they just get Porcello, Lester and some other guy.

[notin]

To me, Odorizzi is a back of the rotation guy. I'd rather they just get Porcello, Lester and some other guy.

 

Odorizzi barely pitched last year but was worth 6.3 fWAR in 2018-2019. And turns 31 in March.

 

Porcello was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. He just turned 32.

 

Lester turns 38 tomorrow and was worth 4.8 fWAR in 2018-19.

 

 

Odorizzi has been the best of the bunch and is the youngest. So obviously, he will cost the most.

[notin]

@Rotoworld_BB

Odorizzi reportedly seeks three years, $36-42M

 

Is he worth Ryan Dempster money?

 

3 years $36 mill? That's actually not unreasonable.

 

Bauer wants $36 mill for one season. Is he 3 times as good as Odorizzi?

[notin]

@Rotoworld_BB

Odorizzi reportedly seeks three years, $36-42M

 

Is he worth Ryan Dempster money?

 

For some comparison:

 

1 year ago, reliever Will Smith signed a 3 year $40mill contract.

 

Tanner Roark signed a 2 year $24mill contract with the Blue Jays. Same AAV.

 

This is what that kind of money normally gets you. Odorizzi is a bargain if those are his demands...

[mvp 78]

Odorizzi barely pitched last year but was worth 6.3 fWAR in 2018-2019. And turns 31 in March.

 

Porcello was worth 4.2 fWAR in 2018 and 2019. He just turned 32.

 

Lester turns 38 tomorrow and was worth 4.8 fWAR in 2018-19.

 

 

Odorizzi has been the best of the bunch and is the youngest. So obviously, he will cost the most.

 

Porcello and Lester would both sign for less AAV and less years.

[mvp 78]

3 years $36 mill? That's actually not unreasonable.

 

Bauer wants $36 mill for one season. Is he 3 times as good as Odorizzi?

 

I don't want them to sign Bauer for numerous reasons.

[mvp 78]

For some comparison:

 

1 year ago, reliever Will Smith signed a 3 year $40mill contract.

 

Tanner Roark signed a 2 year $24mill contract with the Blue Jays. Same AAV.

 

This is what that kind of money normally gets you. Odorizzi is a bargain if those are his demands...

 

It's not outrageous money for him, I'm just not a believer in continued success for him.

[notin]

Porcello and Lester would both sign for less AAV and less years.

 

Oh Lester will be getting a one year deal. If he is lucky, there will be a team option. That is the maximum. AAV of maybe $10mill max. Of course, the Cubs are paying him 8 figures to not pitch for them this year.

 

Porcello only got 1 year $10mill last year. If he gets that this year, he also looks like a steal. Drew Smyly got more money and he will probably spend 3/4 of the season on the IL.

 

If I think the Sox are going to sign 2 pitchers, I would have Porcello as my third option, and I hope Bloom does to. Kluber, Odorizzi and then Porcello if one of them signs elsewhere...

[notin]

It's not outrageous money for him, I'm just not a believer in continued success for him.

 

Possible, although he has been at least a good pitcher for a few years now. AT worst, 3 years is not a deal that scares me with the years. At with a $12mill AAV and an All Star appearance on his resume, he actually becomes movable if things are not working out...

[mvp 78]

Oh Lester will be getting a one year deal. If he is lucky, there will be a team option. That is the maximum. AAV of maybe $10mill max. Of course, the Cubs are paying him 8 figures to not pitch for them this year.

 

Porcello only got 1 year $10mill last year. If he gets that this year, he also looks like a steal. Drew Smyly got more money and he will probably spend 3/4 of the season on the IL.

 

If I think the Sox are going to sign 2 pitchers, I would have Porcello as my third option, and I hope Bloom does to. Kluber, Odorizzi and then Porcello if one of them signs elsewhere...

 

I bet you could sign Lester for about 7.5 and Porcello for about 8. Maybe 2 years on Porcello?

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't mind us getting Kluber, Porcello & Lester rather than just 2 guys: Odorizzi & Kluber.

[notin]

I wouldn't mind us getting Kluber, Porcello & Lester rather than just 2 guys: Odorizzi & Kluber.

 

Well as it stands the Sox have 4 pitchers slated for the rotation in ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck. Certainly getting 2 SPs and bumping Houck to the bullpen seems like it will happen. I am not so sure they bump 2 of them.

 

Of course, there are likely to be a few arms still left in ST who wait for injuries to kick in and get deals. So if the Sox find they need someone then, we will see who is still available...

[moonslav59]

Well as it stands the Sox have 4 pitchers slated for the rotation in ERod, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houck. Certainly getting 2 SPs and bumping Houck to the bullpen seems like it will happen. I am not so sure they bump 2 of them.

 

Of course, there are likely to be a few arms still left in ST who wait for injuries to kick in and get deals. So if the Sox find they need someone then, we will see who is still available...

 

I'm counting on Sale being out until July and Eovaldi or ERod being out at any given time.

 

I'm not sold on Pivetta being a 32 start pitcher, for us.

 

Houck's innings (and service time?) will be limited.

 

Plus, maybe only 2 of the 3 we sign may be both healthy and effective.

[notin]

I'm counting on Sale being out until July and Eovaldi or ERod being out at any given time.

 

I'm not sold on Pivetta being a 32 start pitcher, for us.

 

Houck's innings (and service time?) will be limited.

 

Plus, maybe only 2 of the 3 we sign may be both healthy and effective.

 

Oh I am also hoping for depth signings, and ones better than Dan Gossett. But I'd like there to be something in front of that depth for once...

[jacksonianmarch]

Odorizzi is the perfect “swell-opt” guy. I’d offer him the $36 mil deal for 3 years. After year one, the Sox have to opt in to the next 2 seasons. If they decline, Odorizzi will have a 1 year $12 mil player option he can pick up

[Bellhorn04]

Odorizzi is the perfect “swell-opt” guy. I’d offer him the $36 mil deal for 3 years. After year one, the Sox have to opt in to the next 2 seasons. If they decline, Odorizzi will have a 1 year $12 mil player option he can pick up

 

Did you like the Britton "swell-opt"?

[Donnie Sadler was short]

As far as Porcello. I love the guy personally...but didnt he suck this past year?

[Bellhorn04]

As far as Porcello. I love the guy personally...but didnt he suck this past year?

 

Depends how Old School you are...

[kenmeister]

I wouldn't mind us getting Kluber, Porcello & Lester rather than just 2 guys: Odorizzi & Kluber.

 

Call me crazy, but I'd still also like to see the Sox bring Rich Hill home. Kluber, Odorizzi, and Hill would be my preference.