A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Nick]

The "known commodity" includes incredibly long slumps and good but diminished defensive skills.

 

Yes, he's been over .800 in 3 of the last 6 seasons, but 2 of those seasons were below 260 PAs, and 3 of the last 4 seasons have been under .738.

 

.738 is not terrible for CF, especially for a plus defender, but his O WAR (fWAR) was negative for those 3 years. His career OWAR is -6.2.

 

I'm okay with not having a plus on offense at the CF and SS positions, but I'm also worried about JBJ's defense. His UZR/150 went up from last year, but he still didn't look like the "old JBJ" out there in CF.

 

His CF UZR/150 and my observations show decline.

 

8.1 in 2016

3.5 in 2017

8.8 in 2018 (peak)

-1.8 in 2019

5.5 in 2020 (small sample size)

 

His DRS in those years? 14, 15, -1, -2, 5

 

I get the sentimentality of the re-sign, but no way do I pay him what some here want us to do.

 

this is the problem with Sox and I doubt the new GM will follow suit....just move on....his prolonged slumps are horrendous....his best days playing defense is long gone

move on.....I rather see Duran get the playing time than someone like JBJ....

[Bellhorn04]

this is the problem with Sox and I doubt the new GM will follow suit....just move on....his prolonged slumps are horrendous....his best days playing defense is long gone

move on.....I rather see Duran get the playing time than someone like JBJ....

 

But will you still prefer Duran if he puts up a .625 OPS?

[Thunder]

But will you still prefer Duran if he puts up a .625 OPS?

 

I would still prefer if he changed his name to Duran Duran

[Bellhorn04]

I would still prefer if he changed his name to Duran Duran

 

No mas with Duran jokes.

[Nick]

But will you still prefer Duran if he puts up a .625 OPS?

 

Bigger point is I rather have anyone other and JBJ in CF for Sox in 2021. Pedey is history. I predict Beni will never recover from whatever that ills him.

 

Quit living in the past and move on. You have to decide who gets salvaged from the team going over the cliff.....I don't believe JBJ should be one of them.

 

I'm happy his $11M is out of our luxury tax component.

Edited October 4, 2020 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Bigger point is I rather have anyone other and JBJ in CF for Sox in 2021. Pedey is history. I predict Beni will never recover from whatever that ills him.

 

Quit living in the past and move on. You have to decide who gets salvaged from the team going over the cliff.....I don't believe JBJ should be one of them.

 

I'm happy his $11M is out of our luxury tax component.

 

I certainly understand not wanting him back at $11 million. And I think we're all in agreement he shouldn't get that much based on where the market is.

 

But saying you'd rather see ANYONE ELSE out there? That I don't get.

[Nick]

I certainly understand not wanting him back at $11 million. And I think we're all in agreement he shouldn't get that much based on where the market is.

 

But saying you'd rather see ANYONE ELSE out there? That I don't get.

 

I know this sounds strange but it's out of respect for JBJ.

 

I don't want him on the cheap....that will destroy his pride.....he can probably get more elsewhere....it's just best to part company

[notin]

I know this sounds strange but it's out of respect for JBJ.

 

I don't want him on the cheap....that will destroy his pride.....he can probably get more elsewhere....it's just best to part company

 

LOL Nice save. So a cheap offer hurts his pride, but no offer is respectful?

 

JBJ is not going to take a cheap deal with Boston if everyone else is offering him more. Don't worry about his feelings...

[moonslav59]

If we offer JBJ more than anyone else does, it means we "respect" him more than anyone else does.

 

That being said, I'm feeling more like Nick than others. We need to move past the fascination with our own homegrown players. There's no doubt in my mind, had JBJ spent his whole career with some other team, his name would hardly be mentioned as an addition for 2021-2022.

 

We are looking to rebuild a highly competitive team. I get that along the way, a team can and probably should sign "bridge" or "place-setter" FAs to 1 or 2 year deals to fill some gaps, temporarily, but very good glove- bad to okay bat CF'ers are plentiful and many times much cheaper than what people here are suggesting we offer JBJ.

 

If no other GM offers him $6M/1 or $11M/2, then okay, maybe make an offer close to that, but I'd still rather sign a Pillar type player for $4M/1 than JBJ at $12M/2. Use the savings to add a RP'er or improve another FA by offering $18M a year instead of $12M a year. The differential between those two pitchers should outweigh any possible drop off from JBJ to a guy like the 2020 Pillar signing.

 

I get the point that Pillar signing could have been a failure as the next Pillar-type signing might be, but so could a re-signing of JBJ.

 

I can certainly see the logic behind keeping Beni and giving him a legitimate chance to bounce back. The guy put up some pretty impressive numbers from age 21-23 and is still rather young. Plus, he's under contract: JBJ is not. The reason I suggested trading Beni was that his team control years don't overlap the projected years of us being highly competitive by more than a year, if that. His stock is pretty low, but I don't think GMs think like many of us here. They don't overvalue players based on a 60 game season or even the most recent 162 game season, for that matter. They recognize players have bad seasons here and there. Maybe they see something they think they can fix- something our staff missed. I'm not saying all GMs discard recent performance levels, but I don't think they place the same emphasis on it than many here do.

 

I was for trading Eovaldi, when he looked healthy and was pitching well. I even said, "Hurry up, before he gets hurt again!" and I think he missed his next start after I said that. It's a tricky thing knowing a players trade stock value at any given moment, but other than injury and age factors, I don't think a player's stock goes up and down as much as we think it does.

 

I'm fine with keeping many of the players currently under contract. See what we can add, this winter, without hurting our 2021 chances, and re-evaluate our situation, next summer. If it looks like we have no or very little chance of winning a ring in 2021, then I feel we should unload every player not part of the 2022 plan and look closely at every player who is under control until 2022 only. If we can get something useful and under team control for beyond 2022, I'd seriously consider a sell-off.

 

I'm of the belief we will not be highly competitive, next year, even if Bloom guesses right on nearly all his winter signings and moves, but it's not clear. I'm okay with waiting it out for half a season.

 

Barnes and ERod's team control ends after 2021. They could certainly be on the blocks, next winter. We also lose Pedey's contract after 2021. It's the players who become FAs after 2022 who are the hardest to decide.

JD Martinez

Eovaldi

Beni

Vaz

Plawecki

Godley & Peraza (may be non tendered, this winter)

 

There is some real talent on this list, and it's not necessarily a great thing to see how much salary space these players leaving will free up. We'll have some real gaps to fill, but that is 2023. We'll know a hell of a lot more about the status of our homegrown players and prospects by then. Hopefully, some gaps can and will be filled adequately from within the system.

 

Budget space coming off the books (LUX Tax $$$):

 

After 2021: (~$19M Total)

$13.8M Pedroia

~$3.1M ERod (4th of 4 arbs)

~$2.1M Barnes (3rd of 3 arbs)

 

After 2022: (~$54M Total, assuming Godley & Peraza are not paid in 2022)

$22M JD

$17M Eovaldi

$7.0M Vaz

$6.6M Beni

~$1.4 Plawecki

~$XXX Peraza/Godley

[moonslav59]

LOL Nice save. So a cheap offer hurts his pride, but no offer is respectful?

 

JBJ is not going to take a cheap deal with Boston if everyone else is offering him more. Don't worry about his feelings...

 

Was the FA offer we made to Lester "respectful?"

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No mas with Duran jokes.

 

As long as he doesn't have hands of stone.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In the past half decade (Benintendi's entire career), JBJ has actually given us more value than Beni: 15.2 bWAR > 9.7. However, though I expect Bradley will sign elsewhere, I'm not in favor of paying someone else half as much for half as much dependability in centerfield. So I think the Red Sox will either find a platoon type placeholder while they see if Duran can eventually win the position outright or they'll sign or trade for an established star... because really good players really help make teams really good.

[moonslav59]

In the past half decade (Benintendi's entire career), JBJ has actually given us more value than Beni: 15.2 bWAR > 9.7. However, though I expect Bradley will sign elsewhere, I'm not in favor of paying someone else half as much for half as much dependability in centerfield. So I think the Red Sox will either find a platoon type placeholder while they see if Duran can eventually win the position outright or they'll sign or trade for an established star... because really good players really help make teams really good.

 

Beni was called up at the end of 2016. He only played 34 games, that year, so why count that year and the one before he was even called up against him?

 

It's fine to hold 2020 against him as JBJ has been more durable. Better to use 2017-2020 (4 years). Here's the comp:

 

bWAR:

Beni +9.0

JBJ +9.5

 

fWAR

Beni 7.9 (in 18 just less games)

JBJ 7.8

 

OPS

Beni .786

JBJ .737

 

UZR

JBJ 11.7

Beni 4.9

 

fangraph's "value" / actual pay:

$63.5M Beni/$5.3M paid

$62.6M JBJ / $29.2M paid

 

Edited October 4, 2020 by moonslav59

[Swiharts Ghost]

Beni was called up at the end of 2016. He only played 34 games, that year, so why count that year and the one before he was even called up against him?

 

It's fine to hold 2020 against him as JBJ has been more durable. Better to use 2017-2020 (4 years). Here's the comp:

 

bWAR:

Beni +9.0

JBJ +9.5

 

fWAR

Beni 7.9 (in 18 just less games)

JBJ 7.8

 

OPS

Beni .786

JBJ .737

 

UZR

JBJ 11.7

Beni 4.9

 

fangraph's "value" / actual pay:

$63.5M Beni/$5.3M paid

$62.6M JBJ / $29.2M paid

 

 

Again the list is impeccable.Getting back to player acquisition thougH and couple more Names John Lester at 15 times 2 and Marcus Semian .I Will now float away like a calm ghost .

[moonslav59]

Again the list is impeccable.Getting back to player acquisition thougH and couple more Names John Lester at 15 times 2 and Marcus Semian .I Will now float away like a calm ghost .

 

I don't see us signing Bauer, Realmuto or Springer, despite the latter being from the area and us needing an OF'er badly.

 

I do think it is possible we sign 1-2 of the top second tier players along with 2-5 from the third tier...

 

Marcus Semien

M. Tanaka

T Walker

M Minor

R Ray

J Odorizzi

Liam Hendricks

Alex Colome

Shane Greene

M. Ozuna

DJ LeMahieu

 

Third Tier

J Paxton

J Quintana

M Leake

K Yates

M. Brantley

J Pederson

J Turner

T La Srella

S Marte

Cespedes/Puig

 

Or...

C: J McCann (trade Vaz?)

2B: J Schoop/K Wong/J Profar

CF: Pillar/J Dyson/J Marisnik/Hamilton

SP: Lester/Porcello/Stroman

RP: Rosenthal/Workman/Treinen

 

 

 

[harmony]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BauerOutage/status/1312869549067231232/photo/1

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Beni was called up at the end of 2016. He only played 34 games, that year, so why count that year and the one before he was even called up against him?

 

It's fine to hold 2020 against him as JBJ has been more durable. Better to use 2017-2020 (4 years). Here's the comp:

 

bWAR:

Beni +9.0

JBJ +9.5

 

fWAR

Beni 7.9 (in 18 just less games)

JBJ 7.8

 

OPS

Beni .786

JBJ .737

 

UZR

JBJ 11.7

Beni 4.9

 

fangraph's "value" / actual pay:

$63.5M Beni/$5.3M paid

$62.6M JBJ / $29.2M paid

 

 

Good stuff, Moon. I wasn't counting years as much as just Beni's entire career. By the way, I still have faith in Andrew, and think he's an above-average Green Monster leftfielder, but I'll always find it ironic that Beni is immortalized as the outfielding star of the 2018 LCS, while Bradley was MVP for his batting... with Mookie the underrated one, for his HR-robbing jumps and laser throw to nail Kemp.

[oldtimer]

I would use the weighted average approach to player evaluation. By that I mean the most recent year performance adjusted for the number of games played should be valued at 1.5 times the prior years adjusted performance and valued at 2.5 times the adjusted performance 2 years past. That approach would more realistically reflect trends, whether positive or negative. In the case of JDM or Beni, the trends have a negative slope.

 

Any players whose performance comes in below league average holistically should be replaced as quickly as possible even if it has be be done with 1 or 2 year place holders, while we look for longer term solutions, then so be it. In addition, any player who doesn't figure to make the team better in 2023 should be made available for trade, provided Bloom can be satisfied it makes the team more competitive.

[notin]

Cora was banned for a year in April of 2020. Does that mean he cannot be hired anywhere until April of 2021?

[mvp 78]

Cora was banned for a year in April of 2020. Does that mean he cannot be hired anywhere until April of 2021?

 

Think he was just banned for the 2020 season, not for 12 months.

[mvp 78]

Former Houston bench coach Alex Cora was suspended through the 2020 postseason solely for his role in the Astros’ electronic sign-stealing scandal.

[Thunder]

Former Houston bench coach Alex Cora was suspended through the 2020 postseason solely for his role in the Astros’ electronic sign-stealing scandal.

 

Don't you love it when you find something that proves yourself right?

[jacksonianmarch]

I know Bauer would love to get Boston into the bidding, but why would the Sox want Bauer now? This literally makes no sense. The Yanks went out and got Cole because they were a pitcher away from being a title favorite. The Sox are a lot more than a Bauer away from being title favorites. You don’t go get Bauer then essentially be a team with an ace and a bunch of ******** after him.

 

Listen, the Sox will spend something this offseason. But I think they’ll spread the money around on shorter term deals rather than commit $250-$300 mil to a pitcher

[notin]

I know Bauer would love to get Boston into the bidding, but why would the Sox want Bauer now? This literally makes no sense. The Yanks went out and got Cole because they were a pitcher away from being a title favorite. The Sox are a lot more than a Bauer away from being title favorites. You don’t go get Bauer then essentially be a team with an ace and a bunch of ******** after him.

 

Listen, the Sox will spend something this offseason. But I think they’ll spread the money around on shorter term deals rather than commit $250-$300 mil to a pitcher

 

 

Not necessarily.

 

If you want an ace pitcher, you get one when one is available. Not all free agents are signed solely because a title is within reach...

[Bellhorn04]

Boston Red Sox payroll 2021: Chaim Bloom will enter MLB free agency a projected $36M below $210M base threshold

By Christopher Smith | csmith@masslive.com

 

How much payroll the Red Sox will add this offseason in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic remains unclear.

 

All organizations experienced significant revenue losses in 2020 because of no gate receipts and TV money being down during the shortened 60-game schedule.

 

Team president Sam Kennedy is uncertain whether COVID-19 also will limit attendance at Fenway Park in 2021.

 

“Will it (COVID-19) have an impact on our budget? Yes, of course it will because of the devastating impact it has had on our revenues this year,” Kennedy said last Tuesday. “Obviously, next year is uncertain. That said, I don’t know what the outlook for 2021 is yet with respect to the virus. As that becomes clear, we’ll be able to act in real time and make decisions.”

 

The Red Sox reset their luxury tax penalties by slashing the 2020 payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

 

As of right now, the 2021 payroll is approximately $36 million below the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax base threshold. MassLive.com estimated it at $173.675 million — give or take a few million dollars — entering this offseason before any free agent signings and trades.

 

It’s likely the Red Sox will be active in free agency and the trade market despite the uncertainty heading into next year. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said he doesn’t anticipate a vaccine will be “generally available to the American public” until “late second quarter, third quarter of 2021.” Going by that timetable, Fenway Park might not be filled to full capacity until July 2021 or later.

 

“There’s a long-term view,” Kennedy said. “We know we’re going to withstand operating losses and we’re prepared for that, planning for that. I think you’ll see the Red Sox continue to invest in our baseball operation the way we have for the last 20 years.”

Red Sox 2021 estimated payroll breakdown: approximately $173.675 million

 

Guaranteed contracts: David Price (Red Sox pay $16 million of his $31 million AAV), Chris Sale ($25.60 million), J.D. Martinez ($19.375 million), Xander Bogaerts ($20 million), Nathan Eovaldi ($16.88 million); Dustin Pedroia ($13.3 million), Christian Vazquez ($4.52 million), *Martin Perez ($6.5 million). Total: $122.175

 

* Perez has a $6.25 million team option and $500,000 buyout for 2021.

 

Arbitration contracts: Eduardo Rodriguez ($10 million estimated), Andrew Benintendi ($5 million), Matt Barnes ($4 million estimated), Kevin Plawecki ($1.5 million estimated), Rafael Devers ($6 million estimated, Austin Brice ($1 million estimated), Ryan Brasier ($1 million estimated). Total: $28.5 million estimated

 

Arbitration eligible but likely to be non-tendered: Jose Peraza, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Dylan Covey.

 

Pre-arbitration players: Yoan Aybar, Colten Brewer, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, Mike Kickham, Robinson Leyer, Chris Mazza, Yairo Muñoz, Nick Pivetta, Jeffrey Springs, Robert Stock, Domingo Tapia, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, Marcus Walden, Ryan Weber, Deivy Grullón, Jonathan Arauz, Christian Arroyo, C.J. Chatham, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, Tzu-Wei Lin, César Puello, Alex Verdugo, Marcus Wilson. Approximate Total: $8 million.

 

Other costs: Add another approximately $15 million for medical costs, health benefits, spring training allowances, moving and traveling expenses, etc. That’s all included in the CBT. Approximate Total: $15 million.

[notin]

So Smith assumes the Sox are tendering a contract to Austin Brice?

[Bellhorn04]

So Smith assumes the Sox are tendering a contract to Austin Brice?

 

Maybe 'guesses' would be more accurate.

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is, Bloom has $35-40 million to play with before hitting the first threshold.

[mvp 78]

So Smith assumes the Sox are tendering a contract to Austin Brice?

 

Covey is slightly better than Brice IMO. I think they nontender more than 4 guys.

[notin]

Covey is slightly better than Brice IMO. I think they nontender more than 4 guys.

 

I could see that, as they have 10-12 players where the 40 man roster spot is more valuable than the player. Some of the non-tendered crowd could potentially be brought back on MiLB deals. None of them figure to garner significant interest around the league...