A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Think of what we get for $28M on the tax budget ($14M x 2 yrs).

 

Barria is just 24, pre-arb and had a 1.113 WHIP, this year.

 

Mayers may be a flash, but he had a nice season at 0.900 WHIP and a 2.10 ERA (12.9K/9 seems out of the blue)

 

 

 

I have a feeling the pitching-weak Angels, frequent league leaders in TJ surgeries, would be reluctant to include any young arms, especially if they are getting back another pitching question mark. This team still has IL Veterans Andrew Heaney, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning and only recently shed themselves of oft-injured Garret Richard and Nick Tropeano. Not to mention, they had the untimely passing of Tyler Skaggs, who was not exactly the most durable pitcher during his career either.

 

I have no idea what it is the Angels do to absolutely batter their pitchers into painful submission, but I would be very surprised if they saw Nathan Eovaldi as any part of the solution.

 

So the Sox would probably need to replace both Eovaldi and Martinez. Upton was tremendous at one point in his career, but right now he is often banged up and ineffective. I would prefer Martinez just stay and bounce back...

[moonslav59]

I have a feeling the pitching-weak Angels, frequent league leaders in TJ surgeries, would be reluctant to include any young arms, especially if they are getting back another pitching question mark. This team still has IL Veterans Andrew Heaney, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning and only recently shed themselves of oft-injured Garret Richard and Nick Tropeano. Not to mention, they had the untimely passing of Tyler Skaggs, who was not exactly the most durable pitcher during his career either.

 

The trade wasn't really about Upton, except as a salary balancer.

 

Freeing up $28M can get us a nice pitcher and Upton can still play CF.

 

What do you think of Taveras in CF?

Edited October 8, 2020 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

It might look better to you. But COVID-19 seems like the strangest reason ever for a trade to look better.

 

The Dodgers may be the ones who benefited the most from COVID-19, in that it made Mookie more open to taking their extension offer.

 

I still can't believe the Dodgers agreed to give Mookie such a large contract. I think they could have signed him for far less under these circumstances.

 

I know I've posted that many times before, but my mind is boggled.

[Kimmi]

We wouldn't have made the playoffs with Mookie and we probably couldn't have resigned him. We got Verdugo, Downs and Wong and lost have of Price's overhanging contract which cost us or the Dodgers anything this year. The Dodgers got Mookie for 60 games, the playoffs and were able to sign him although for a costly and risky contract. Both the Sox and the Dodgers have reasons to be happy and that is what a good trade should engender.

 

Well said Oldtimer. I agree.

[Kimmi]

I would think that the Dodgers having Mookie on board , enhanced their chances of re - signing him. What we got back is okay , but in no way comparable to Betts.

 

In terms of pure talent, maybe not. In terms of value, I would have to disagree. And yes, value matters.

[notin]

I have a feeling the pitching-weak Angels, frequent league leaders in TJ surgeries, would be reluctant to include any young arms, especially if they are getting back another pitching question mark. This team still has IL Veterans Andrew Heaney, Dylan Bundy, and Griffin Canning and only recently shed themselves of oft-injured Garret Richard and Nick Tropeano. Not to mention, they had the untimely passing of Tyler Skaggs, who was not exactly the most durable pitcher during his career either.

 

The trade wasn't really about Upton, except as a salary balancer.

 

Freeing up $28M can get us a nice pitcher and Upton can still play CF.

 

What do you think of Taveras in CF?

 

Upton cannot still play CF. That’s his retired brother who played there. The younger Upton is also a converted SS, but corner OF only.

 

Leody Taveras? Of the Rangers?

[jad]

In terms of pure talent, maybe not. In terms of value, I would have to disagree. And yes, value matters.

 

But then, look at LAD--having to play all those extra games in October. Imagine the toll that takes on players and coaching staff. Even their fan base. So short-sighted on their part.

[Bellhorn04]

But then, look at LAD--having to play all those extra games in October. Imagine the toll that takes on players and coaching staff. Even their fan base. So short-sighted on their part.

 

I must say, some of this back-and-forth between old school and new school thinkers is entertaining.

 

I'm sort of in the middle myself.

 

I understand why the Red Sox balked at a $400 million contract. But if I was a Dodgers fan, I'd be ecstatic about locking up Mookie for life.

[notin]

I think for CF, the Sox will do one of the following:

 

1) Bring back Bradley

2) Find another cheap defense-oriented CF on the free agent market, with Pillar and Michael Taylor looking like candidates

3) Take back a questionable contract as part of a deal to upgrade the pitching. The first names that comes to mind are Kevin Kiermaier and Ender Inciarte. Other (in my opinion) less likely candidates include Lorenzo Cain, AJ Pollock, Dexter Folwler, Wil Myers, and Randy Grichuk. Two of them (Fowler and Myers) do present question marks about their ability to actually still play CF, which hopefully will be a factor. And it should be one that eliminates Gregory Polanco, who would be a perfect fit due to his bad contract (with one year left at $14.6 mill, which is like $45 mill in Pittsburgh Dollars), strong desire of his team to move him, and abundance of likely available veteran starting pitching.

 

Polanco is mildly interesting because he was among the league leaders in exit velocity this year, coming in 13th in MLB with a 92.9 mph average exit velocity (which was just a tick behind Devers and his 93mph average exit velocity). But his overall numbers sucked. Like, really bad. Like .539 OPS bad. It doesn't take long to see why - his strikeout numbers are through the roof. So apparently he either hits the tar out of the ball or simply doesn't hit it at all. If he could play great CF, that might be one thing. But he can't, and getting Polanco to play a corner position and moving either Verdugo or Benintedi to CF probably isn't worth it, unless you have much stronger feelings about Joe Musgrove, Jameson Taillon or Trevor Williams than I do. (And i do like Musgrove and Taillon. Williams not so much)...

[mvp 78]

If Mookie was still here, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Their pitching was horrible. He would have been the only one hitting at the start of the year. 927 OPS Betts wouldn't be replacing a AAAA guy like Munoz or Chavis, he'd be replacing 845 OPS Verdugo. They maybe win 2 more games? Maybe?

[notin]

If Mookie was still here, they wouldn't have made the playoffs. Their pitching was horrible. He would have been the only one hitting at the start of the year. 927 OPS Betts wouldn't be replacing a AAAA guy like Munoz or Chavis, he'd be replacing 845 OPS Verdugo. They maybe win 2 more games? Maybe?

 

Per Fangraphs, Betts was worth 3 wins above repalcement and Verdugo was worth 1.6 wins above replacement. If you like to translate that directly to team wins, the Sox are 1.4 wins better. So I can buy into an improvement of "2 wins. Maybe"

[mvp 78]

Per Fangraphs, Betts was worth 3 wins above repalcement and Verdugo was worth 1.6 wins above replacement. If you like to translate that directly to team wins, the Sox are 1.4 wins better. So I can buy into an improvement of "2 wins. Maybe"

 

Getting 2 extra wins in 2020 rather than multiple years of Downs, Wong, Verdugo and salary relief for Price seems like a really good idea!

[moonslav59]

 

Upton cannot still play CF. That’s his retired brother who played there. The younger Upton is also a converted SS, but corner OF only.

 

Leody Taveras? Of the Rangers?

 

My bad on Upton.

 

Yes, the guy from the Rangers with mixed defensive metrics as a possible add on to an Eovaldi-Odor deal.

[mvp 78]

 

My bad on Upton.

 

Yes, the guy from the Rangers with mixed defensive metrics as a possible add on to an Eovaldi-Odor deal.

 

Odor/Evans/12M for Eovaldi per BTV.

 

I just am not sold that they would just salary dump Eovaldi if they think they can compete next year. What's the purpose of eating Odor's salary? Couldn't you just hold onto Eovaldi, hope he stays healthy and deal him at the deadline if you are out of contention?

[notin]

 

Odor/Evans/12M for Eovaldi per BTV.

 

I just am not sold that they would just salary dump Eovaldi if they think they can compete next year. What's the purpose of eating Odor's salary? Couldn't you just hold onto Eovaldi, hope he stays healthy and deal him at the deadline if you are out of contention?

 

I think this team is in a position where they just have to keep Eovaldi's contract. Odor just won't be worth it unless they really believe he can hit improve greatly on his 2016 season. Right now, he is a 2B who struggles defensively, has a career OPS of .728 and hits a little over 20 HRs per season while striking out a lot. That makes him Michael Chavis...

Edited October 9, 2020 by notin

[mvp 78]

I think this team is in a position where they just have to keep Eovaldi's contract. Odor just won't be worth it unless they really believe he can hit improve greatly on his 2016 season. Right now, he is a 2B who struggles defensively, has a career OPS of .728 and hits a little over 20 HRs per season while striking out a lot. That makes him Michael Chavis...

 

Michael Chavis with a good right hook.

[dgalehouse]

But then, look at LAD--having to play all those extra games in October. Imagine the toll that takes on players and coaching staff. Even their fan base. So short-sighted on their part.

 

It sucks to be watching the Sox - less post season . But look at it this way ; we now have Jeter Downs , who many feel may actually make it to the show someday.

[notin]

It sucks to be watching the Sox - less post season . But look at it this way ; we now have Jeter Downs , who many feel may actually make it to the show someday.

 

If we had Betts this year, it would still have been a Sox-less post-season. Unless you count the White ones...

[moonslav59]

 

Odor/Evans/12M for Eovaldi per BTV.

 

I just am not sold that they would just salary dump Eovaldi if they think they can compete next year. What's the purpose of eating Odor's salary? Couldn't you just hold onto Eovaldi, hope he stays healthy and deal him at the deadline if you are out of contention?

 

I'm not loving on Odor, but he might be our best option at 2B.

 

The point is this- rather than just pay half of Eovaldi's salary, take on Odor's.

 

The plus is this:

 

We get someone else besides Odor, maybe just a prospect or someone like Taveras, a pre-arb CF'er, who fills another high need area at viryually no added cost.

Now, we have 2 slots filled: 2B and CF.

Now, we have $9M more to spend in 2021 and 2022. Add that "saved Money" to the spending budget we already have and upgrade your signings at SP and RP, our two highest need areas.

[moonslav59]

I think this team is in a position where they just have to keep Eovaldi's contract. Odor just won't be worth it unless they really believe he can hit improve greatly on his 2016 season. Right now, he is a 2B who struggles defensively, has a career OPS of .728 and hits a little over 20 HRs per season while striking out a lot. That makes him Michael Chavis...

 

Odor has hit 30+ HRs three times and averages 28 per 650 PAs. Yes, he averages 150 Ks per 650, but here's Chavis:

 

27 Hrs per 650

215 Ks per 650!

(His OBP is about 15 points higher, but his SLG is about 15 lower.)

 

Again, I'm not gah-gah over Odor. We may end up cutting him or trading him elsewhere. The main part of the deal is to...

 

Cut $9M a year from our tax budget

Add another 2 players to fill a current gap (CF, SP, 2B, RP?)

Dump an unreliable pitcher

Add a more durable pitcher with the savings

 

We will be signing 1-2 SP'ers. Adding $9M/yr to their salaries may greatly improve their quality and/or reliability.

[dgalehouse]

Per Fangraphs, Betts was worth 3 wins above repalcement and Verdugo was worth 1.6 wins above replacement. If you like to translate that directly to team wins, the Sox are 1.4 wins better. So I can buy into an improvement of "2 wins. Maybe"

 

I am not going to get into yet another discussion about WAR . But this points out a fundamental flaw in this contrived " stat ". Betts is one of the very best in the game . A future Hall of Famer . There is no comparison to Verdugo . Two wins better ? Balderdash . Balderdash , I say.

[mvp 78]

 

I'm not loving on Odor, but he might be our best option at 2B.

 

The point is this- rather than just pay half of Eovaldi's salary, take on Odor's.

 

The plus is this:

 

We get someone else besides Odor, maybe just a prospect or someone like Taveras, a pre-arb CF'er, who fills another high need area at viryually no added cost.

Now, we have 2 slots filled: 2B and CF.

Now, we have $9M more to spend in 2021 and 2022. Add that "saved Money" to the spending budget we already have and upgrade your signings at SP and RP, our two highest need areas.

 

Odor: 622 OPS in 2020

Arroyo: 736 OPS in 2020

Chavis: 656 OPS in 2020

Peraza: 617 OPS in 2020

 

Odor is just an expensive version of Peraza. Pass.

[mvp 78]

Odor has hit 30+ HRs three times and averages 28 per 650 PAs. Yes, he averages 150 Ks per 650, but here's Chavis:

 

27 Hrs per 650

215 Ks per 650!

(His OBP is about 15 points higher, but his SLG is about 15 lower.)

 

Again, I'm not gah-gah over Odor. We may end up cutting him or trading him elsewhere. The main part of the deal is to...

 

Cut $9M a year from our tax budget

Add another 2 players to fill a current gap (CF, SP, 2B, RP?)

Dump an unreliable pitcher

Add a more durable pitcher with the savings

 

We will be signing 1-2 SP'ers. Adding $9M/yr to their salaries may greatly improve their quality and/or reliability.

 

In 2019, he hit 30 HRs and only had a WRC+ of 77. Chavis had a WRC+ of 96 in 2019. Odor is not good. Just hitting 30 HRs is meaningless nowadays.

[mvp 78]

Odor has hit 30+ HRs three times and averages 28 per 650 PAs. Yes, he averages 150 Ks per 650, but here's Chavis:

 

27 Hrs per 650

215 Ks per 650!

(His OBP is about 15 points higher, but his SLG is about 15 lower.)

 

Again, I'm not gah-gah over Odor. We may end up cutting him or trading him elsewhere. The main part of the deal is to...

 

Cut $9M a year from our tax budget

Add another 2 players to fill a current gap (CF, SP, 2B, RP?)

Dump an unreliable pitcher

Add a more durable pitcher with the savings

 

We will be signing 1-2 SP'ers. Adding $9M/yr to their salaries may greatly improve their quality and/or reliability.

 

You can trade Eovaldi and not take back a horrible deal like Odor's.

[mvp 78]

I am not going to get into yet another discussion about WAR . But this points out a fundamental flaw in this contrived " stat ". Betts is one of the very best in the game . A future Hall of Famer . There is no comparison to Verdugo . Two wins better ? Balderdash . Balderdash , I say.

 

Mookie had 2 more hits than Verdugo. 2. Betts had 11 more runs. Over the course of 60 games that's one extra run every other series. With this pitching staff, does Mookie get the Sox more than an additional 2 wins?

[moonslav59]

You can trade Eovaldi and not take back a horrible deal like Odor's.

 

Again, it's not about odor.

 

By taking Odor, or just paying $8M a year for two years, we sweeten the return players.

 

I've said it numerous times. It's not about Odor. We could cut him, and the deal still could be a big plus for us.

 

There are other players out there, better than odor, who play CF, 2B or RP'er and are paid more than their team wants to pay them. The idea is to take back a lesser salary dump, so the other team will give us something else of value PLUS we use the savings to get a better pitcher than we otherwise could not have afforded.

 

You guys keep harping on the Odor-type players I bring up. IMO, it's better to take back a player and their salary than to just pay equal in cash. The worst that can happen is we cut Odor, and it's the same as paying $8M x 2 years towards Eovaldi's deal- like we are now paying half of Price's deal.

[moonslav59]

In 2019, he hit 30 HRs and only had a WRC+ of 77. Chavis had a WRC+ of 96 in 2019. Odor is not good. Just hitting 30 HRs is meaningless nowadays.

 

Again, it's not about Odor.

[moonslav59]

 

Odor: 622 OPS in 2020

Arroyo: 736 OPS in 2020

Chavis: 656 OPS in 2020

Peraza: 617 OPS in 2020

 

Odor is just an expensive version of Peraza. Pass.

 

Again, it's not about Odor.

[Bellhorn04]

I am not going to get into yet another discussion about WAR . But this points out a fundamental flaw in this contrived " stat ". Betts is one of the very best in the game . A future Hall of Famer . There is no comparison to Verdugo . Two wins better ? Balderdash . Balderdash , I say.

 

2 wins in 60 games is a lot.

[mvp 78]

2 wins in 60 games is a lot.

 

Only way they get more than that is if Betts was a starting pitcher...