A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Maybe 'guesses' would be more accurate.

 

That’s fine. Brice was really the only obvious question mark on his prediction.

 

And even if they do non-tender him, it does very little to impact the overall picture he’s painting...

[mvp 78]

I could see that, as they have 10-12 players where the 40 man roster spot is more valuable than the player. Some of the non-tendered crowd could potentially be brought back on MiLB deals. None of them figure to garner significant interest around the league...

 

That's exactly the reasoning. The pen was littered with AAAA guys. I guess you keep Springs/Valdez/Mazza. The rest were all pretty replaceable. Seems like a few writers at OTM really like Brice, but I'm not a fan.

[notin]

That's exactly the reasoning. The pen was littered with AAAA guys. I guess you keep Springs/Valdez/Mazza. The rest were all pretty replaceable. Seems like a few writers at OTM really like Brice, but I'm not a fan.

 

I'm not even as high on Springs and Valdez as you. I prefer Covey and Stock over both. But really, it's all guess work on whom Bloom prefers...

[mvp 78]

I'm not even as high on Springs and Valdez as you. I prefer Covey and Stock over both. But really, it's all guess work on whom Bloom prefers...

 

I just didn't see much out of Covey in the games I watched. Stock was fine. I thought Valdez was interesting. Springs had a good stretch in the middle, started off bad and ended on a flat note.

[oldtimer]

The bottom line is, Bloom has $35-40 million to play with before hitting the first threshold.

 

That's based on who he assumes will be kept with the team. Bloom could trade a couple of guys and free up additional money. I don't expect a whole lot of action until the winter meetings but I supposed some information may be released just after completion of the WS.

[notin]

That's based on who he assumes will be kept with the team. Bloom could trade a couple of guys and free up additional money. I don't expect a whole lot of action until the winter meetings but I supposed some information may be released just after completion of the WS.

 

And on the assumption that he won't be going over the first limit.

[Bellhorn04]

And on the assumption that he won't be going over the first limit.

 

No such assumption on my part, sir. I said "35-40 million before hitting the first threshold".

[notin]

No such assumption on my part, sir. I said "35-40 million before hitting the first threshold".

 

The inference some seem to have taken from the statement, then...

[Kimmi]

I know Bauer would love to get Boston into the bidding, but why would the Sox want Bauer now? This literally makes no sense. The Yanks went out and got Cole because they were a pitcher away from being a title favorite. The Sox are a lot more than a Bauer away from being title favorites. You don’t go get Bauer then essentially be a team with an ace and a bunch of ******** after him.

 

Listen, the Sox will spend something this offseason. But I think they’ll spread the money around on shorter term deals rather than commit $250-$300 mil to a pitcher

 

Completely agree with that last sentence. They may exceed the tax limit this year, but only if it really makes sense. They will be competitive in 2021, but 2021 is not the year to go big on anything.

[Kimmi]

Not necessarily.

 

If you want an ace pitcher, you get one when one is available. Not all free agents are signed solely because a title is within reach...

 

Not if he's an almost 30 year old pitcher looking for 7+ years.

[moonslav59]

Good stuff, Moon. I wasn't counting years as much as just Beni's entire career. By the way, I still have faith in Andrew, and think he's an above-average Green Monster leftfielder, but I'll always find it ironic that Beni is immortalized as the outfielding star of the 2018 LCS, while Bradley was MVP for his batting... with Mookie the underrated one, for his HR-robbing jumps and laser throw to nail Kemp.

 

I don't live in New England anymore, so I'm not hearing the chatter.

 

I don't see many posters, here, drooling over Beni. There was a time many were very high on him.

 

Mookie and JBJ were quite a pair in the spacious CF-RF of Fenway...maybe even better than Lynn - Evans.

[moonslav59]

I would use the weighted average approach to player evaluation. By that I mean the most recent year performance adjusted for the number of games played should be valued at 1.5 times the prior years adjusted performance and valued at 2.5 times the adjusted performance 2 years past. That approach would more realistically reflect trends, whether positive or negative. In the case of JDM or Beni, the trends have a negative slope.

 

Any players whose performance comes in below league average holistically should be replaced as quickly as possible even if it has be be done with 1 or 2 year place holders, while we look for longer term solutions, then so be it. In addition, any player who doesn't figure to make the team better in 2023 should be made available for trade, provided Bloom can be satisfied it makes the team more competitive.

 

I kinda look at most recent year, assuming no injury or short season as being a little less than equal to the most recent 3 year average, but I'm open to viewing outlier seasons as factors.

 

Just my general outlook. (I don't count 2020's season as the "most recent year," since it was only 40% of a season.

[moonslav59]

Boston Red Sox payroll 2021: Chaim Bloom will enter MLB free agency a projected $36M below $210M base threshold

By Christopher Smith | csmith@masslive.com

 

How much payroll the Red Sox will add this offseason in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic remains unclear.

 

All organizations experienced significant revenue losses in 2020 because of no gate receipts and TV money being down during the shortened 60-game schedule.

 

Team president Sam Kennedy is uncertain whether COVID-19 also will limit attendance at Fenway Park in 2021.

 

“Will it (COVID-19) have an impact on our budget? Yes, of course it will because of the devastating impact it has had on our revenues this year,” Kennedy said last Tuesday. “Obviously, next year is uncertain. That said, I don’t know what the outlook for 2021 is yet with respect to the virus. As that becomes clear, we’ll be able to act in real time and make decisions.”

 

The Red Sox reset their luxury tax penalties by slashing the 2020 payroll below the Competitive Balance Tax threshold.

 

As of right now, the 2021 payroll is approximately $36 million below the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax base threshold. MassLive.com estimated it at $173.675 million — give or take a few million dollars — entering this offseason before any free agent signings and trades.

 

It’s likely the Red Sox will be active in free agency and the trade market despite the uncertainty heading into next year. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said he doesn’t anticipate a vaccine will be “generally available to the American public” until “late second quarter, third quarter of 2021.” Going by that timetable, Fenway Park might not be filled to full capacity until July 2021 or later.

 

“There’s a long-term view,” Kennedy said. “We know we’re going to withstand operating losses and we’re prepared for that, planning for that. I think you’ll see the Red Sox continue to invest in our baseball operation the way we have for the last 20 years.”

Red Sox 2021 estimated payroll breakdown: approximately $173.675 million

 

Guaranteed contracts: David Price (Red Sox pay $16 million of his $31 million AAV), Chris Sale ($25.60 million), J.D. Martinez ($19.375 million), Xander Bogaerts ($20 million), Nathan Eovaldi ($16.88 million); Dustin Pedroia ($13.3 million), Christian Vazquez ($4.52 million), *Martin Perez ($6.5 million). Total: $122.175

 

* Perez has a $6.25 million team option and $500,000 buyout for 2021.

 

Arbitration contracts: Eduardo Rodriguez ($10 million estimated), Andrew Benintendi ($5 million), Matt Barnes ($4 million estimated), Kevin Plawecki ($1.5 million estimated), Rafael Devers ($6 million estimated, Austin Brice ($1 million estimated), Ryan Brasier ($1 million estimated). Total: $28.5 million estimated

 

Arbitration eligible but likely to be non-tendered: Jose Peraza, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs, Dylan Covey.

 

Pre-arbitration players: Yoan Aybar, Colten Brewer, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, Mike Kickham, Robinson Leyer, Chris Mazza, Yairo Muñoz, Nick Pivetta, Jeffrey Springs, Robert Stock, Domingo Tapia, Josh Taylor, Phillips Valdez, Marcus Walden, Ryan Weber, Deivy Grullón, Jonathan Arauz, Christian Arroyo, C.J. Chatham, Michael Chavis, Bobby Dalbec, Tzu-Wei Lin, César Puello, Alex Verdugo, Marcus Wilson. Approximate Total: $8 million.

 

Other costs: Add another approximately $15 million for medical costs, health benefits, spring training allowances, moving and traveling expenses, etc. That’s all included in the CBT. Approximate Total: $15 million.

 

Cots has us at $68M under the limit, including the $15M player benefit payment.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WWRsQNsGZkWuJZwlY8--xVBXMJGjh230D45KiHTHuvY/edit#gid=1520401900

 

I trust cots.

[moonslav59]

The bottom line is, Bloom has $35-40 million to play with before hitting the first threshold.

 

The bottom line with cots is $68M to spend. ($88M, if we go over by $19.9M)

[moonslav59]

According to cots and AVV numbers:

$millions

25 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

16 Price

14 Pedey

6.3 Perez (opt accepted)

5.0 Beni

4.4 Vaz

[130 Guaranteed Total]

15 Player Benefits

2.3 minor league 40 man roster

[147M Running Total]

 

It's all about the arbs and tender vs non tenders:

ARB Player ($2020 unadjusted salary) Arb year/Total Arbs

ERod ($8.3M) 4/4 (injury- non tender?)

Barnes ($3.1) 3/3 (trade?)

Peraza ($2.9) 3/4 (non tender?)

Godley (min) 2/3 (non tender?)

Devers (692K) 1/3

Plawecki (900K) 3/4

Pivetta (600K) 1/3

Brasier (584K) 1/3

Covey (700K) 1/3 (non tender?)

Brice (573K) 1/3 (non tender?)

(All others are pre-arb)

 

The ERod case is the hardest to call. If he goes to arb, he may make $6-9M- I'm no expert on this.

Devers has his first arb, and year one arbs are usually not that much- maybe $5-8M?

Barnes may be trades, but it's his last arb, so he may make $4-6M?

Plawecki had a good (short) year as a back-up. It's year 3 arb but not his last: $1.2-2M?

Brasier's first arb: $1-1.5M?

Pivetta's first arb: $1-1.5M?

 

With ERod, I'm guessing $20-25M.

Without ERod: $12-18M

 

+$8M for the 9-10 ML players that fill out the roster, but don't forget, with every FA we sign, we also subtract one player making about $800K. If we sign 9 FAs, we can subtract the $8M I added here.

 

$155M + 22M= $177M w ERod

$155M + 15M= $170M w/o ERod

 

Subtract from $210M Luxury Tax Limit and we have $33-40M to spend.

 

Edited October 6, 2020 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Arb salaries can only go down 20% in baseball. ERod made the equivalent of $8.3 mil. So the lowest he can go is $6.64 mil. The precedent for season ending injury in a guy who's last year was top notch is the same salary. I'd expect ERod around $8.5 mil for 2021.

 

Devers is probably correct with his solid 2019 and okay 2020 in his first run through arb. The sox will have a fair amount of money for sure, I just don't think they're gonna use it like most fans want. They'll spread the wealth on shorter term deals and then deal those players off to build. I honestly think 2021 will be the first year of the true rebuild

[moonslav59]

Arb salaries can only go down 20% in baseball. ERod made the equivalent of $8.3 mil. So the lowest he can go is $6.64 mil. The precedent for season ending injury in a guy who's last year was top notch is the same salary. I'd expect ERod around $8.5 mil for 2021.

 

Devers is probably correct with his solid 2019 and okay 2020 in his first run through arb. The sox will have a fair amount of money for sure, I just don't think they're gonna use it like most fans want. They'll spread the wealth on shorter term deals and then deal those players off to build. I honestly think 2021 will be the first year of the true rebuild

 

Come on. We traded Betts. You can't rebuild anymore than that. This was year 1.

 

We also dumped Moreland, Pillar, Workman & Hembree.

[jacksonianmarch]

Come on. We traded Betts. You can't rebuild anymore than that. This was year 1.

 

We also dumped Moreland, Pillar, Workman & Hembree.

 

There's more to deal off. My bet is the sox sign short term deals, deal them off for farm capital and grow. 2022 is when they start to actually bring in long term assets

[moonslav59]

There's more to deal off. My bet is the sox sign short term deals, deal them off for farm capital and grow. 2022 is when they start to actually bring in long term assets

 

I didn't say it was the first and only year of the rebuild. I said it was year 1 after you called 2021 year 1.

[notin]

There's more to deal off. My bet is the sox sign short term deals, deal them off for farm capital and grow. 2022 is when they start to actually bring in long term assets

 

Are you talking about running a baseball team or about financial planning?

[Bellhorn04]

Am I missing someone or something?

 

Yes. On the line that says 114 Guaranteed Total, the numbers above it actually total 129.7, so that total is missing Perez, Beni and Vaz.

 

You also have to chuck in about 8 million for the pre-arb guys.

 

I'll start a thread dedicated to the 2021 payroll numbers tonight if I have time.

Edited October 6, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

Are you talking about running a baseball team or about financial planning?

 

Yes, Jax really takes the dehumanizing thing to the next level.

[jad]

I know it's crazy, but given that the RS have almost unlimited spending capacity, how about improving the team by signing good players? and keeping the good players you have? Then again, since I live near Portland, I'm thrilled that they get rid of dead-wood like Betts in order to 'improve the farm' and give us that double-A ball we deserve.

[Bellhorn04]

I know it's crazy, but given that the RS have almost unlimited spending capacity, how about improving the team by signing good players? and keeping the good players you have? Then again, since I live near Portland, I'm thrilled that they get rid of dead-wood like Betts in order to 'improve the farm' and give us that double-A ball we deserve.

 

They don't have unlimited spending capacity, that's the thing.

[mvp 78]

They don't have unlimited spending capacity, that's the thing.

 

They have the capacity. They don't have the will.

[moonslav59]

Yes. On the line that says 114 Guaranteed Total, the numbers above it actually total 129.7, so that total is missing Perez, Beni and Vaz.

 

You also have to chuck in about 8 million for the pre-arb guys.

 

I'll start a thread dedicated to the 2021 payroll numbers tonight if I have time.

 

I counted Vaz, Beni & Perez. You are right on missing the pre-arb guys making min salary. There might be 10 of them, before any signings.

 

That leaves about $55-60M to spend, and everyone we sign also subtracts about $800K for the guy who no longer makes the 26 man roster.

[Bellhorn04]

They have the capacity. They don't have the will.

 

They have as much will or more than any other team. I'll settle for that.

[moonslav59]

They have the capacity. They don't have the will.

 

We've been one of the biggest spending teams in MLB the last 5, 10 or 20 years. We've led the league in spending several times in the past 5-7 years.

 

The will and the spending have both been present.

 

We reset the tax, this year. It's not an indication we are becoming the Pirates.

 

We've reset before and went right back to heavy spending. My guess is we will stay near the tax line in 2021 and go over in 2022.

 

The will is there. It's just not "unlimited."

[Bellhorn04]

I counted Vaz, Beni & Perez.

 

??? Go back and check what makes up your $114 M number again.

[mvp 78]

We've been one of the biggest spending teams in MLB the last 5, 10 or 20 years. We've led the league in spending several times in the past 5-7 years.

 

The will and the spending have both been present.

 

We reset the tax, this year. It's not an indication we are becoming the Pirates.

 

We've reset before and went right back to heavy spending. My guess is we will stay near the tax line in 2021 and go over in 2022.

 

The will is there. It's just not "unlimited."

 

They could lead the league in spending every year and still make money. They don't. They have the capacity, they don't have the will. It's fine. I don't think they should automatically spend as much as possible. It was a CHOICE to not re-sign HOF bound Mookie Betts. They could have kept them if they wanted to. They didn't want to.