A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Chavis for another team's Ward or Houck.

 

I'd trade two, if we had 'em.

[mvp 78]

I'd trade two, if we had 'em.

 

Matthew Lugo at 5 seems high to me too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One can argue Verdugo, Downs, Wong and whoever we get with the extra budget space may approach the value of Betts over the next 10 years, but if we don't spend the money every year, it will be much harder to say we made out okay on the deal.

 

 

I'm not arguing against the guys we got from LA, just about the Red Sox celebrating their reset. It's misleading to their fans if the Sox don't reinvest in the product they're selling. And like Shaughnessey today and some others here and elsewhere have been saying, "After 20 years of pedal-to-the-metal, the Sox are downshifting in urgency and expectations."

 

At least Kennedy finally admits that Boston isn't actually going "all-in" this year. Whether someone is an optimist or a realist, we're all diehards if we post here, and the glaring changes are unsettling to longtime fanatics.

[moonslav59]

Matthew Lugo at 5 seems high to me too.

 

Agreed.

 

They also had Chatham at 4.9 before dropping him to 2 point something and now 1.9.

 

Here's my take on their "mistakes:"

 

Over-valued:

18.4 Dalbec: I like Dalbec, but maybe 14 is more reasonable.

14 Duran: I'd say 10-11.

7.6 Yorke: maybe 3-4

6.0 Chavis: maybe 2-3

5.0 Lugo: maybe 2-3

4.3 Groome: maybe maybe 1.5-2.5

2.9 Brasier: maybe 1-2

 

Under-valued

8.9 D Hern: I'd put him near 11-12

2.3 Seabold: maybe 3-4.5

1.6 Bello: they moved him from 1.0. I'd put him over 2.5

1.2 Barnes: I know, just 1 year left, but still... (2.5+)

 

Weird, how as a Sox fan, I see more over-valued than under.

 

[Nick]

The " price we paid " helped build a champion and , arguably, one of the greatest teams of all time. It was well worth it. By the way , I still don't see that the price was nearly as high as some think. As for draft picks ; the better you are , the lower the draft picks. That's the way it is. It's certainly not an excuse to not try and be the best. I don't know if Kennedy is speaking for John Henry , but that statement is not what so many Sox fans want to hear after last year's debacle.

 

No complaints about 3 straight Division titles topped off by World Championship. Betts now plays for the Dodgers.

 

We've won 4 titles in less than 20 years.

 

Move forward.....give Bloom some slack. He's just getting started.

 

I just wanted to point out we won't be going all in this year per Sox Management.

[notin]

Interesting to note, the BTV site dropped the value of Chavis, again, from 7.5 to 6.0. (I think even 6.0 is too high. Houck is 6.0, Beni & Ward are 5.3.

 

The one flaw in their system is that they use projections for WAR that are ehavily dependant on projected playing time. But a bench player that ets dealt into a starting role would see a sudden increase in projected WAR regardles of ability.

 

In the case of Chavis' drop, it probably reflects a decrease in projected playing time...

[notin]

Agreed.

 

They also had Chatham at 4.9 before dropping him to 2 point something and now 1.9.

 

Here's my take on their "mistakes:"

 

Over-valued:

18.4 Dalbec: I like Dalbec, but maybe 14 is more reasonable.

14 Duran: I'd say 10-11.

7.6 Yorke: maybe 3-4

6.0 Chavis: maybe 2-3

5.0 Lugo: maybe 2-3

4.3 Groome: maybe maybe 1.5-2.5

2.9 Brasier: maybe 1-2

 

Under-valued

8.9 D Hern: I'd put him near 11-12

2.3 Seabold: maybe 3-4.5

1.6 Bello: they moved him from 1.0. I'd put him over 2.5

1.2 Barnes: I know, just 1 year left, but still... (2.5+)

 

Weird, how as a Sox fan, I see more over-valued than under.

 

 

It might be worth noting that players on the 40 man roster see a drop in value just for being on the 40 man roster, as it inhibits their tradability in some cases...

[Kimmi]

There was a time we thought they might actually exceed that first threshold, because of the re-set...

 

Have they ever said that they wouldn't exceed the threshold? If the right deal comes along, they'll go over.

[Kimmi]

If they were going to go over the limit, why wouldn't they be in on the top tier FA's?

 

Because the top tier free agents aren't worth the deals they are getting.

[Kimmi]

For those who still think the Red Sox may re-sign JBJ: since Springer is now a $25 mil per-year-man, how much does Scott Boras demand for Jackie?

 

2020 bWAR: Springer 2.2, Bradley 2.1. Even if you think Springer is twice as good as JBJ, shouldn't the latter be getting around $12.5 mil per?

 

Boston has put Benintendi, who makes $6 mil, on the trading block. Do you think Bloom is willing to pay Bradley twice as much to keep him around?

 

I would happily welcome JBJ back, but I think he is going to be offered more than I think the Red Sox should pay, and more than Bloom is willing to pay.

[Kimmi]

This just came in my e-mail......

 

The president and CEO of the Boston Red Sox admits the Sox are not “all-in” trying to win the World Series this year.

“I think it would be inaccurate to say we are going for it with an all-in approach that perhaps we did prior to the 2018 title,” Sam Kennedy acknowledged in a wide-ranging interview Tuesday.

 

“We cherish that title, and all of them, but the way we built that team came at a price, which included importantly a depleted farm system and some depleted draft picks along the way. So we are building back up, and as we do this hopefully the right way, we’ll have a chance to be competitive in the American League East in 2021, but also for the longer term.”

 

There you have it. After 20 years of pedal-to-the-metal, the Sox are downshifting in urgency and expectations.

 

We're looking for incremental improvements and find out where the pieces fit. We're climbing uphill after going down the cliff.

 

Kimmi will enjoy reading about the 'price' we paid for the 2018 title.

 

Also uncertain if it's wise to spend as though we're big market ball club when you have no idea what the COVID situation will be this year in terms of having the ability to generate top tier revenue as in the past.

 

I read Kennedy's comments earlier. I don't think he really said anything that we didn't already know. We always knew that that the Sox were not going to have an 'all in' approach this year. The team is not at the point to do that. We need a farm system.

 

That said, that doesn't mean that we can't or won't be competitive. Too many people are interpreting his statement as meaning the Sox are punting this season. I don't think that's the case. There's a difference between not going all in and punting.

[Kimmi]

The " price we paid " helped build a champion and , arguably, one of the greatest teams of all time. It was well worth it. By the way , I still don't see that the price was nearly as high as some think. As for draft picks ; the better you are , the lower the draft picks. That's the way it is. It's certainly not an excuse to not try and be the best. I don't know if Kennedy is speaking for John Henry , but that statement is not what so many Sox fans want to hear after last year's debacle.

 

The price we paid was worth it because we won the championship. (Imagine if we hadn't.) However, I wholeheartedly believe that we could have built a champion with a less aggressive approach and currently be in better shape as far as flexibility goes than we were last year and we are this year.

[Kimmi]

I'm not arguing against the guys we got from LA, just about the Red Sox celebrating their reset. It's misleading to their fans if the Sox don't reinvest in the product they're selling. And like Shaughnessey today and some others here and elsewhere have been saying, "After 20 years of pedal-to-the-metal, the Sox are downshifting in urgency and expectations."

 

At least Kennedy finally admits that Boston isn't actually going "all-in" this year. Whether someone is an optimist or a realist, we're all diehards if we post here, and the glaring changes are unsettling to longtime fanatics.

 

There is no team that will operate year after year after year without resetting. I don't understand why so many people are averse to this idea.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no team that will operate year after year after year without resetting. I don't understand why so many people are averse to this idea.

 

Red Sox Nation in general is not in top spirits these days. Interest in the team has been sagging. Losing Mookie was a bummer. We thought the tax re-set would lead to a somewhat exciting offseason. Instead it's been a snorefest from start to finish. Maybe that will change in the upcoming weeks. But it's hard to know what Henry and the front office are really thinking.

[Kimmi]

Red Sox Nation in general is not in top spirits these days. Interest in the team has been sagging. Losing Mookie was a bummer. We thought the tax re-set would lead to a somewhat exciting offseason. Instead it's been a snorefest from start to finish. Maybe that will change in the upcoming weeks. But it's hard to know what Henry and the front office are really thinking.

 

I can understand the frustration and the desire for something to happen. It will get better before the season starts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There is no team that will operate year after year after year without resetting. I don't understand why so many people are averse to this idea.

 

I wasn't adverse to resetting... just to the Red Sox bragging about it on social media, as if they couldn't afford to pay the tax.

[moonslav59]

I can understand the frustration and the desire for something to happen. It will get better before the season starts.

 

Just give us a tidbit, NOW!

 

(lol)

[oldtimer]

I can understand the frustration and the desire for something to happen. It will get better before the season starts.

With the top tier outfielder contract agreed, can JBJ be far behind? We will need at least one outfielder, depending on what we do with Beni, if anything.

[mvp 78]

Because the top tier free agents aren't worth the deals they are getting.

 

I thought this was a down market?

[notin]

I thought this was a down market?

 

So did all of the GMs, which is why the Guardians waived Brad Hand and every GM passed on him, and now he is positioned to get much more than 1 yr / $10 mill...

[moonslav59]

So did all of the GMs, which is why the Guardians waived Brad Hand and every GM passed on him, and now he is positioned to get much more than 1 yr / $10 mill...

 

The one year part was so low risk, I'm surprised no GM took the deal.

[notin]

The one year part was so low risk, I'm surprised no GM took the deal.

 

Like Bloom?

[moonslav59]

Like Bloom?

 

He was first on my mind.

 

Closer was and still is one of our top 2 priorities, IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We are on the move!

 

MLBTradeRumors: "The Red Sox have a deal of the minor-league variety with right-hander Zac Grotz, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Grotz receives an invitation to MLB Spring Training in the agreement. He’ll be looking to reach the majors for the third-straight year after reaching the professional ranks as a 28th-round pick. The former Mariner has surrendered twenty earned runs with a 22:19 K/BB ratio through 24 2/3 MLB innings."

[notin]

We are on the move!

 

MLBTradeRumors: "The Red Sox have a deal of the minor-league variety with right-hander Zac Grotz, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Grotz receives an invitation to MLB Spring Training in the agreement. He’ll be looking to reach the majors for the third-straight year after reaching the professional ranks as a 28th-round pick. The former Mariner has surrendered twenty earned runs with a 22:19 K/BB ratio through 24 2/3 MLB innings."

 

That one hit Rotoworld 2 days ago. MLBTR is slacking.

 

I think that false announcement about Brantley has them checking and re-checking themselves...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That one hit Rotoworld 2 days ago. MLBTR is slacking.

 

I think that false announcement about Brantley has them checking and re-checking themselves...

 

This new guy is someone to root for -- say Zac Grotz three times fast... sounds like bullies at recess making fun of a new kid -- he has to be resilient!

[notin]

This new guy is someone to root for -- say Zac Grotz three times fast... sounds like bullies at recess making fun of a new kid -- he has to be resilient!

 

The fine folks in Worcester might grow to love him. Probably not...

[jad]

we are on the move!

 

Mlbtraderumors: "the red sox have a deal of the minor-league variety with right-hander zac grotz, per chris cotillo of masslive.com (via twitter). Grotz receives an invitation to mlb spring training in the agreement. He’ll be looking to reach the majors for the third-straight year after reaching the professional ranks as a 28th-round pick. The former mariner has surrendered twenty earned runs with a 22:19 k/bb ratio through 24 2/3 mlb innings."

 

"we're saved!!!"

[dgalehouse]

Zac Grotz is what is euphemistically known as a " depth signing."

[Bellhorn04]

Zac Grotz is what is euphemistically known as a " depth signing."

 

Or a 'We're saved!' or 'Print the playoff tickets!' signing.

 

Before the internet most of us wouldn't even know about these minor transactions that every team has...