A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So we get some Chris Archer/Tyler Glasnow type deals? I'm not sure what you're point is...

 

Schwarber just signed to play leftfield in Washington for $10 mil, so Beni (a player with more tools) doesn't make a ton of money, and he's only 26. And yet, Bloom's plan is to trade him for even younger players who may never even make it?

 

We'd all love to strike it rich and nab an Austin Meadows just before his career takes off. But isn't Benintendi -- coming off a miserable, injury-shortened summer month -- exactly the type of bounce-back candidate that a guy with Bloom's rep should be looking to add?

[jad]

There are not a lot of good, objective sports writers. On one hand , you have the " chipmunks " who are always trying to stir up a little mischief. On the other hand , you have the " butt kissers " who are always trying to be nice and curry favor with those who they think can help or hurt them. True objectivity is becoming a lost art.

 

And true objectivity was an art ... when?

[mvp 78]

Schwarber just signed to play leftfield in Washington for $10 mil, so Beni (a player with more tools) doesn't make a ton of money, and he's only 26. And yet, Bloom's plan is to trade him for even younger players who may never even make it?

 

We'd all love to strike it rich and nab an Austin Meadows just before his career takes off. But isn't Benintendi -- coming off a miserable, injury-shortened summer month -- exactly the type of bounce-back candidate that a guy with Bloom's rep should be looking to add?

 

1. He values years of control and Beni only has 2 years left.

2. He trusts that his scouting department can find an adequate replacement.

3. Trading Beni opens the door for a larger move in LF (Ozuna?).

[harmony]

Schwarber just signed to play leftfield in Washington for $10 mil, so Beni (a player with more tools) doesn't make a ton of money, and he's only 26. And yet, Bloom's plan is to trade him for even younger players who may never even make it?

 

We'd all love to strike it rich and nab an Austin Meadows just before his career takes off. But isn't Benintendi -- coming off a miserable, injury-shortened summer month -- exactly the type of bounce-back candidate that a guy with Bloom's rep should be looking to add?

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.7 and 1.5 for Andrew Benintendi and 1.9 and 2.0 for Kyle Schwarber:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrew-benintendi/17901/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF

 

Schwarber, who is 16 months older than Benintendi, was the fourth pick in the 2014 draft while Benintendi was the seventh pick in the 2015 draft.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.7 and 1.5 for Andrew Benintendi and 1.9 and 2.0 for Kyle Schwarber:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrew-benintendi/17901/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/stats?position=OF

 

Schwarber, who is 16 months older than Benintendi, was the fourth pick in the 2014 draft while Benintendi was the seventh pick in the 2015 draft.

 

I'm not sure you realize WAR totals profess to be estimates, so they look pretty equal based on quantitative projections. Schwarber can hit home runs, but isn't a base-stealing threat and has never had a positive dWAR in six seasons. Beni has had two seasons with 20 or more steals and was a Gold Glove finalist.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1. He values years of control and Beni only has 2 years left.

2. He trusts that his scouting department can find an adequate replacement.

3. Trading Beni opens the door for a larger move in LF (Ozuna?).

 

I'll believe 3. when I see it. I'd welcome Ozuna, but expect Eddie Rosario at about half the cost.

[notin]

I'll believe 3. when I see it. I'd welcome Ozuna, but expect Eddie Rosario at about half the cost.

 

There’s nothing wrong with Rosario...

[harmony]

I'm not sure you realize WAR totals profess to be estimates, so they look pretty equal based on quantitative projections. Schwarber can hit home runs, but isn't a base-stealing threat and has never had a positive dWAR in six seasons. Beni has had two seasons with 20 or more steals and was a Gold Glove finalist.

One can cherry-pick stats or look for a composite assessment.

 

Kyle Schwarber and Andrew Benintendi have different tools but somewhat similar overall value, according to projected WAR.

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

There’s nothing wrong with Rosario...

 

An upgrade from Beni.

[harmony]

An upgrade from Beni.

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 1.7 and 1.5 for Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 and 1.8 for Eddie Rosario:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/andrew-benintendi/17901/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/eddie-rosario/12155/stats?position=OF

 

FWIW Benintendi is nearly three years younger than Rosario.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One can cherry-pick stats or look for a composite assessment.

 

Kyle Schwarber and Andrew Benintendi have different tools but somewhat similar overall value, according to projected WAR.

 

Or not.

 

Value also has to consider context -- Schwarber's power bat and poor D are a better fit for Washington's strikeout pitching staff. But on a pitch-to-lots-of-contact staff like Boston's in 2020, the ball would find him too many times. If Beni can revert to 2018 Andrew, he may be more important to the Sox than Rosario, as well. Bloom and the FO surely have more info than we do about his skillset going forward... and may want to salvage something in return before it's too late.

[dgalehouse]

I'm not necessarily in favor of trading Benintendi. But if they could sign Ozuna, it would be fine. But what are the odds of that? Edited January 20, 2021 by dgalehouse

[a700hitter]

Angels To Sign Jose Quintana

 

The Angels have an agreement with free-agent left-hander Jose Quintana, pending a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s a one-year, $8MM contract for the Wasserman client, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.

 

Quintana was one of the most accomplished innings eaters available in free agency, as the 31-year-old has thrown 1,495 innings of 3.73 ERA/3.99 SIERA ball between the White Sox and Cubs since his career began in 2012. Of course, a good portion of Quintana’s career has been spent with Angels manager Joe Maddon, who was the Cubs’ skipper when the southpaw pitched for the club from 2017-19. Maddon was with the Angels last season, when Quintana missed most of the year with thumb problems. He totaled just one start and 10 innings in his final season in Chicago.

Last year’s injury issues look like an anomaly for Quintana, who entered the season with seven straight campaigns of 170-plus innings. That’s the type of durability the Angels have lacked in recent years. They’ve battled a litany of injuries in their rotation en route to six straight seasons without a playoff berth, but a healthy Quintana may help turn their fortunes around in 2021.

 

Along with Quintana, the Angels will feature Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning in the top four of their rotation next season. Two-way player Shohei Ohtani and Jaime Barria also figure to collect plenty of starts for the club.

Edited January 20, 2021 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

I'm not necessarily in favor of trading Benintendi. But if they could sign Ozuna, it would be fine. But what are the odds of that?

 

Depends what we get for Beni. If we get a pitcher and then sign Renfroe, we'd be better off.

[harmony]

Do the Red Sox consider stepping back in 2021 after the AL East continues to get more competitive with the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly signing George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood?

 

Edited January 20, 2021 by harmony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Do the Red Sox consider stepping back in 2021 after the AL East continues to get more competitive with the Toronto Blue Jays reportedly signing George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood?

 

 

Can't step much further back than dead last, but they've definitely stepped aside...

[Bellhorn04]

We're still $30 million under the first tax threshold after making a lot of re-setting the tax rate.

 

Surely there are a few acquisitions in the near future.

[moonslav59]

We're still $30 million under the first tax threshold after making a lot of re-setting the tax rate.

 

Surely there are a few acquisitions in the near future.

 

Yes, and even with the small moves we've made, it's more positive than the O's and Rays, so far, for 2021.

 

Hopefully, we spend the $30M wisely. We shouldn't just sign the best players on the market, because they are better than the others. Most felt CC was the best OF'er available, Pablo was better than Headley and on an on...

 

If most of the players some posters have been clamoring for us to sign end up being duds, will they remember being upset when we "let them go?" I remember one poster going nutty over our need to sign Hosmer.

 

Yes, we need a SP'er and closer, but are the ones already signed by others really the ones to lead us to vast improvement?

 

Sure, the list of available players is shrinking quickly, but there is enough left to move us up in the standings. There are also trade possibilities.

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Hopefully, we spend the $30M wisely.

 

There was a time we thought they might actually exceed that first threshold, because of the re-set...

[mvp 78]

We're still $30 million under the first tax threshold after making a lot of re-setting the tax rate.

 

Surely there are a few acquisitions in the near future.

 

They need to sign a mid rotation guy (Odorizzi/Tanaka), one of the better relievers left, another average reliever and a CF. You can do that with 30M. They'll probably even pick Mitch up on a one year deal too.

[moonslav59]

There was a time we thought they might actually exceed that first threshold, because of the re-set...

 

I could see us spending to a point just under the tax line, but if we are in the race at the deadline, we might spend enough to end up over the line.

 

Likely? Maybe not- but possible.

[moonslav59]

They need to sign a mid rotation guy (Odorizzi/Tanaka), one of the better relievers left, another average reliever and a CF. You can do that with 30M. They'll probably even pick Mitch up on a one year deal too.

 

Yes. I agree.

 

$13-15M SP

$6-8M solid RP

$3-5M RP

$3-5M CF

$3-5M 2B

$3-5M Moreland?

[mvp 78]

Yes. I agree.

 

$13-15M SP

$6-8M solid RP

$3-5M RP

$3-5M CF

$3-5M 2B

$3-5M Moreland?

 

Moreland should be closer to 2-3M IMO.

 

I don't think they pick up a 2B unless it's a UTIL guy like Kike.

[moonslav59]

Moreland should be closer to 2-3M IMO.

 

I don't think they pick up a 2B unless it's a UTIL guy like Kike.

 

Kike could fill the CF & 2B role or 2B/4th OF'er.

 

Yes, Moreland will likely get closer to $3M than 4 or 5.

[Sox75]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/01/andrew-benintendi-trade-rumors-solid-chance-red-sox-outfielder-remains-in-boston-has-shed-the-bulk-reports.html

 

I honestly think this would be the best NON-MOVE this organization could make.

 

Beni has tremendous up side, and I firmly believe he has the skills & talent to turn things around with a new / old approach at the plate. Go back to being a slimmed down, make good contact, & use the whole field go with the pitch approach.

 

Assuming he gets back on track, our OF becomes a ++, withexcellent production. If he and the Sox are rolling, go with it. If the Sox falter, which is likely the case, you deal Beni on a come-back high, and you get an excellent return in a SOLID home grown guy, with major value.

 

Another panic reactionary sell off of once top talent would be another aweful mistake for this lost its Bloom organization.

 

I think Bloom can and will rebuild in a smart way, but selling low is a waste of resources, and a huge gamble.

 

I project Beni having a big comeback. We know he has the goods, and I think it's clear he lost his focus.

 

Bottom line... I think his value right now Is WELL BELOW his real value, and his inate talent is well worth the risk of keeping him too long. His trade value could not be lower at this point, compared to his talent and past production pre-2020.

[notin]

Kike could fill the CF & 2B role.

 

 

At once? He's not that good.

 

The Sox are likely to add a CF (Bradley?) and a 2B from the scrap heap. The bulk of the 2B options are all still available. Arroyo was not so great last year (.296 OBP) in his 50 ABs that he should get the job uncontested. And Chavis has not really shown to be the answer, either.

 

Chavis should be dealt for a RP...

[kenmeister]

I'm starting to lose faith any more moves will be made.

[notin]

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/01/andrew-benintendi-trade-rumors-solid-chance-red-sox-outfielder-remains-in-boston-has-shed-the-bulk-reports.html

 

I honestly think this would be the best NON-MOVE this organization could make.

 

Beni has tremendous up side, and I firmly believe he has the skills & talent to turn things around with a new / old approach at the plate. Go back to being a slimmed down, make good contact, & use the whole field go with the pitch approach.

 

Assuming he gets back on track, our OF becomes a ++, withexcellent production. If he and the Sox are rolling, go with it. If the Sox falter, which is likely the case, you deal Beni on a come-back high, and you get an excellent return in a SOLID home grown guy, with major value.

 

Another panic reactionary sell off of once top talent would be another aweful mistake for this lost its Bloom organization.

 

I think Bloom can and will rebuild in a smart way, but selling low is a waste of resources, and a huge gamble.

 

I project Beni having a big comeback. We know he has the goods, and I think it's clear he lost his focus.

 

Bottom line... I think his value right now Is WELL BELOW his real value, and his inate talent is well worth the risk of keeping him too long. His trade value could not be lower at this point, compared to his talent and past production pre-2020.

 

The only reason to think Benintendi might go anywhere is Kyle Schwarber somehow got $10mill on he FA market, despite being non-tendered by the Cubs. Benintendi ($6.6mill + 1 arb year) should have some appeal at that price, but as long as Ozuna, Puig, Brantley, Pederson and Rosario are still available, teams might be hesitant to give up actual talent to acquire Benintendi. Sure they'll give up longshot prospects - guys who they figure are unlikely to ever see Day One in an MLB uniform - but I don't think Bloom has been impressed with anything so far...

[mvp 78]

Kike could fill the CF & 2B role or 2B/4th OF'er.

 

Yes, Moreland will likely get closer to $3M than 4 or 5.

 

Sign Kike and a cheap CF that is in some sort of rotation with Kike (Almora/Pillar/DeShields)? Chavis/Arroyo also rotate in at 2b with Kike?

[notin]

Sign Kike and a cheap CF that is in some sort of rotation with Kike (Almora/Pillar/DeShields)? Chavis/Arroyo also rotate in at 2b with Kike?

 

I've decided to keep my mind open to (ugh) Jake Marisnick. His defensive numbers are actually very impressive. But Almora and DeShields also work if Bradley does not come back.

 

The 2B could be a stopgap, but there is no reason to assume Jeter Downs takes over in 2021, or that even if he does, he will be any good. While I doubt the Sox go all in for Kolten Wong, certainly one of Cesar Hernandez, Kike Hernandez, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Tommy La Stella, or Hanser Alberto could be had for dirt cheap cash. Although a 1 year $5mill deal would not kill this team.

 

Why are we assuming the Sox will not go over the limit? Last year, there was a lot of actual buzz in the media they would reset. Is there anything like that this year?