A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Nick]

Our rotation could potentially be very good. Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding them, but if they can stay healthy, they can be good.

 

It would be nice to add a #3/4 type who doesn't have question marks surrounding his health.

 

Yep, another $10M guy for 2-3 years.

[Bellhorn04]

At the start of every softball season after age 40 when asked if I was in shape my answer was, "round is a shape". That is how I feel about the shape of the Red Sox Roster right now. It is taking a shape.

 

Our roster is kind of a squiggly shape.

[Nick]

Our roster is kind of a squiggly shape.

 

Until few years ago, we had a senior league 55+, you could smoke and had designated runner for every batter if you want.

[Bellhorn04]

Until few years ago, we had a senior league 55+, you could smoke and had designated runner for every batter if you want.

 

Perfect.

[harmony]

Our rotation could potentially be very good. Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding them, but if they can stay healthy, they can be good.

 

It would be nice to add a #3/4 type who doesn't have question marks surrounding his health.

Rick Porcello.

 

Seriously.

[Nick]

Rick Porcello.

 

Seriously.

 

No doubt he can still throw 100 pitches a game....just the question of if that's for first 3 innings or 4 innings....

[notin]

Rick Porcello.

 

Seriously.

 

I do like the idea. But the Sox also need relief pitching. Although adding Richards could help by pushing Houck to the pen. If the Sox sign Porcello, maybe Pivetta to the bullpen?

[moonslav59]

I think there are still 1-3 moves coming.

 

Agreed, but the major priority- SP'er- has been filled, and not quite to my expectations, despite the high upside of Richards.

 

Here is what I think we will do next:

 

1) Trade Beni for prospects or a RP'er of CF'er (see #2 and #3).

2) Acquire a RP'er- hopefully no worse than Colome.

3) Aquire a CF'er- maybe someone like Pillar.

4) Aquire OF depth- maybe someone like Marisnick, especially if we trade Beni for anything except an OF'er.

 

Only the closer-type RP'er could get very costly. According to cots, we are about $14M under the luxury line, but we don't know if there is a directive to stay below or near the line. If we trade Beni for a min wage player(s) of prospects, we'd have about $20M to spend, in theory.

 

That may be barely enough to sign JBJ, Colome & Marisnick. We may decide to sign Pillar, Colome and Marisnick and have something to spend at the deadline, if needed.

 

I still think our roatation and closer slot are our weakest links, right now, but I think we are done adding any SP'ers beyond minor league depth. Closer is #1, right now, IMO.

 

[Nick]

I think our projected starter War is in line with most of the AL teams.....after adding Richards.

[notin]

I do like the idea. But the Sox also need relief pitching. Although adding Richards could help by pushing Houck to the pen. If the Sox sign Porcello, maybe Pivetta to the bullpen?

 

Probably worth noting that soxprospects.com thinks Houck is now in the rotation at Worcester, which actually makes sense. The Sox are going to need depth starters with this rotation...

[notin]

So add

 

RP/CL - Colome?

CF - Marisnick? Pillar? Almora? DeShields? Danny Santana? Maybin? Brian Goodwin?

LHH BN - Moreland? Miller? Shaw? Jake Lamb? Santana? Derek Dietrich?

[notin]

No doubt he can still throw 100 pitches a game....just the question of if that's for first 3 innings or 4 innings....

 

Porcello has averaged nearly 6 IP per start over the last 3 seasons...

[mvp 78]

So add

 

RP/CL - Colome?

CF - Marisnick? Pillar? Almora? DeShields? Danny Santana? Maybin? Brian Goodwin?

LHH BN - Moreland? Miller? Shaw? Jake Lamb? Santana? Derek Dietrich?

Colome/Almora/Miller

 

Less than 13M? Should be.

[moonslav59]

We have 3 CFers and no big bat in the OF. I’d rather get Ozuna than another light hitting CFer.

 

Can Almora field well?

[Nick]

Probably worth noting that soxprospects.com thinks Houck is now in the rotation at Worcester, which actually makes sense. The Sox are going to need depth starters with this rotation...

 

Maybe we can hold off calling him up later in the year and give the Sox six full years starting 2022.

 

So we go with Eovaldi, Richards, E Rod, Pivetta and Perez? I'm not opposed to another starter. Will Porcello sign a one year deal?

[Nick]

Can Almora field well?

 

Can you see 2023 lineup of

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Downs

SS Xander

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Rosario

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Dalbec/Devers

 

JD, Price, Eovaldi and their $55M comes off the books after 2022. That's on top of $13M for Dustin after 2021.

Edited January 24, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Can you see 2023 lineup of

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Downs

SS Xander

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Rosario

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Dalbec/Devers

 

JD, Price, Eovaldi and their $55M comes off the books after 2022. That's on top of $13M for Dustin after 2021.

 

The one spot I think most likely to change in your lineup is shortstop. The only way I see Bogie sticking around is if the Sox are contenders and Cora is still here. Unfortunately, if this team flops again I think Cora will be a convenient scapegoat (again) and the front office will be compelled to make a splash -- and the best free agents a year from now are all shortstops.

 

Those who crave offseason action may see a blizzard next winter when Boston has to actually worry about filling seats again for a full season...

[moonslav59]

Can you see 2023 lineup of

 

C Wong

1B Casas

2B Downs

SS Xander

3B Devers/Dalbec

LF Rosario

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH Dalbec/Devers

 

I'd be surprised if 3 of these 5 are FT players for the Sox in 2023:

 

Wong

Duran

Rosario

Casas

Downs

 

(Least likely on top)

[moonslav59]

Yankess get Taillon for 4 prospects- none of which are all that great, according to reports.

 

I wish we had gotten him, despite my wish to keep the farm strong.

[a700hitter]

Yankess get Taillon for 4 prospects- none of which are all that great, according to reports.

 

I wish we had gotten him, despite my wish to keep the farm strong.

Another Cashman ripoff. Ben got swindled.

[jacksonianmarch]

Another Cashman ripoff. Ben got swindled.

 

I’m a prospect-nick of sorts. I never like seeing good prospects go. I am ecstatic for this move

[harmony]

Another Cashman ripoff. Ben got swindled.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-39110/

[jacksonianmarch]

As I’ve said before, that site is junk! And hey, maybe one of them pops and makes it worthwhile. But if they value our minor leaguers like that, we should be able to get anyone!

[dgalehouse]

Keeping up with the Yankees is always a challenge and never easy. It has always been that way. That is what makes it so gratifying when we are able to beat them. That is why 2004 was our true defining moment. The best sports moment of all time. And winning the A.L. East three straight years , 2016 - 2018 , was so great . And so worth the so- called " price we paid."

[a700hitter]

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-39110/

Nonsense, is Cashman the publisher?

[harmony]

As I’ve said before, that site is junk! And hey, maybe one of them pops and makes it worthwhile. But if they value our minor leaguers like that, we should be able to get anyone!

Steamer and ZiPS project Jameson Taillon with 2021 WAR of 1.8 and 1.6. Extrapolated, the Yankees may get 3.5 WAR from two years of Taillon.

 

Or not.

 

The issue is whether the four distant prospects -- ages 18, 21, 21 and 22 -- will ever combine for more than WAR than Taillon tallies in two years. Given prospect attrition, chances are at least two or three of the prospects will never post a positive WAR. But the hypothetical threshold of 3.5 WAR is attainable if only one prospect has an MLB career of at least four years.

 

Every transaction carries risks on each side. The Pirates spread their risk across four prospects while the Yankees concentrated their risk on two years of a 29-year-old pitcher coming off two Tommy John surgeries.

 

Let's hope the trade meets the contrasting needs of each club.

[harmony]

Nonsense, is Cashman the publisher?

???

 

The automated Baseball Trade Values calculation concluded the Yankees made a "major overpay" in the trade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

???

 

The automated Baseball Trade Values calculation concluded the Yankees made a "major overpay" in the trade.

 

Not even Yankee fans feel that way. None are big-time prospects we hear or read about for NY, and as far as I know, only one has even made the majors, so far. The other three may not ever make it.

 

Considering their ages, it seems like a lot of other teams could have also put together a package of low-level prospects for Taillon... if they were good enough to go for it.

[dgalehouse]

What is this " baseball trade values " site anyway? Is it a panel of " experts" in baseball deals? Future G.M.s ? Mensa candidates? Or is it just a couple of pencil neck geeks , with a ton of college debt , trying to make a few bucks with their computer?

[jacksonianmarch]

Steamer and ZIPS are pulling numbers out of their ass since he was hurt from mid 19 through all of 20. Taillon, if he can stay healthy, is a 3+ WAR starter. And getting away from Pittsburgh lends the chance he becomes something more. It wasn’t that long ago that a guy with huge stuff just off TJS left Pitt and became one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball. Taillon has that level of potential