A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

[Nick]

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

 

 

Again, you guys are looking to win the world series. Anything less is disappointing to the fan base. Dodgers finally did it but it was a short season and I think that helped them. You just never know the injury situation over a 162 game season.

 

You really haven't told me anything NEW. We maybe in the toughest division but that alone won't guaranty a world series ring for you. You're top 5. So what?

[Swiharts Ghost]

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

 

Yankees Are winning this Division but barely over the Jays .I have the Yankees getting swept in World Series but making it .Yankees lineup is sick and the Pitching is Solid .I almost wish they would win it so it would push ownership here in Boston to go big lol but this summer will be competitive in AL East I do think Boston finishes 3rd .maybe second with a surprise signing but we will see.

[moonslav59]

Again, you guys are looking to win the world series. Anything less is disappointing to the fan base. Dodgers finally did it but it was a short season and I think that helped them. You just never know the injury situation over a 162 game season.

 

You really haven't told me anything NEW. We maybe in the toughest division but that alone won't guaranty a world series ring for you. You're top 5. So what?

 

It's been so long since a top five Yankee team. Let him wallow.

Edited February 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

 

The Yanks are tops at everything? Must be Spring Training again...

[notin]

Hell, YES!

 

 

What about for both Trevor Rosenthal and Keone Kela?

[moonslav59]

What about for both Trevor Rosenthal and Keone Kela?

 

Anybody but Price, even at $5M x 2.

[kenmeister]

I continue to doubt that anyone further is being added to the Red Sox.

[oldtimer]

I continue to doubt that anyone further is being added to the Red Sox.

 

You could be right about that. Maybe the plan is to play this year and begin to integrate players from the minors as a way to rebuilt the team for 2022. We have Downs, Casas and Duran in the wings and any number of pitchers. If we then can bring in a few top FA's, 2022 could be a year we are back in contention.

[notin]

You could be right about that. Maybe the plan is to play this year and begin to integrate players from the minors as a way to rebuilt the team for 2022. We have Downs, Casas and Duran in the wings and any number of pitchers. If we then can bring in a few top FA's, 2022 could be a year we are back in contention.

 

Not sure why Casas, Downs and Duran are the three players the Sox should be tanking seasons to wait for the arrival of.

 

Chances are they’re average at best, and it’s always possible some or all 3 just don’t pan out...

[kenmeister]

Alright, here's an assessment.

 

The rotation

 

The ceiling is actually high. Sale, Rodriguez, Richards, & Eovaldi could stay healthy and regularly pitch quality starts, with Perez & Pivetta solid 4-5 starters. By year's end, it could be one of the best rotations in the majors.

 

The floor is abysmally low. Sale may never make it back this year with any effectiveness. Rodriguez could have aftereffects of his heart condition and never make it back this year beyond a few starts. Richards and Eovaldi could land on the DL for significant portions of the season. Perez and Pivetta, forced to pitch too many innings, could get exposed and shelled on a regular basis. Houck could be brought in to start but with only two pitches the league may catch up to him quick and outmatch him. It could truly be a disaster.

 

Ken's prediction: the rotation shows signs of success, but injuries and ineffectiveness plague it until the end of the season, when everything starts to come together, but alas it's too late to make the playoffs by then.

 

The bullpen

 

Ceiling: I think the most we can hope for is adequate.

 

Floor: While the relievers themselves aren't that bad, if the starting pitching gets shelled, the bullpen will get exposed and forced to pitch way too many innings.

 

Ken's prediction: As the starting pitching gets worse & worse, we get more and more bullpen starts, and the Red Sox find they can't hold a lead smaller than 4 runs by mid-summer. Again I think it gets better by year's end, but too late to save anything.

 

The offense

 

Ceiling: If JD Martinez and Andrew Benitendi regain their strokes, watch out American League.

 

Floor: I think the worst our offense can do is middle of the pack.

 

Ken's prediction: The offense starts out strong, but as the pitching bottoms out mid-summer, they start to feel like they have to score 10 runs a game and lose patience. Eventually the offense sputters as well. JD finds his stroke by year's end just as the starters start to keep us in games again, and the offense ends a respectable 5th in the AL.

 

Defense

 

Ceiling: err

 

Floor: Bad news bears

 

Ken's prediction: A struggle all year; we lose some games that are actually well pitched due to fielding errors, further adding to the offense's feeling like even 10 runs isn't enough.

 

****

 

Overall: 80-82

[Bellhorn04]

Alright, here's an assessment.

 

The rotation

 

The ceiling is actually high. Sale, Rodriguez, Richards, & Eovaldi could stay healthy and regularly pitch quality starts, with Perez & Pivetta solid 4-5 starters. By year's end, it could be one of the best rotations in the majors.

 

The floor is abysmally low. Sale may never make it back this year with any effectiveness. Rodriguez could have aftereffects of his heart condition and never make it back this year beyond a few starts. Richards and Eovaldi could land on the DL for significant portions of the season. Perez and Pivetta, forced to pitch too many innings, could get exposed and shelled on a regular basis. Houck could be brought in to start but with only two pitches the league may catch up to him quick and outmatch him. It could truly be a disaster.

 

Ken's prediction: the rotation shows signs of success, but injuries and ineffectiveness plague it until the end of the season, when everything starts to come together, but alas it's too late to make the playoffs by then.

 

The bullpen

 

Ceiling: I think the most we can hope for is adequate.

 

Floor: While the relievers themselves aren't that bad, if the starting pitching gets shelled, the bullpen will get exposed and forced to pitch way too many innings.

 

Ken's prediction: As the starting pitching gets worse & worse, we get more and more bullpen starts, and the Red Sox find they can't hold a lead smaller than 4 runs by mid-summer. Again I think it gets better by year's end, but too late to save anything.

 

The offense

 

Ceiling: If JD Martinez and Andrew Benitendi regain their strokes, watch out American League.

 

Floor: I think the worst our offense can do is middle of the pack.

 

Ken's prediction: The offense starts out strong, but as the pitching bottoms out mid-summer, they start to feel like they have to score 10 runs a game and lose patience. Eventually the offense sputters as well. JD finds his stroke by year's end just as the starters start to keep us in games again, and the offense ends a respectable 5th in the AL.

 

Defense

 

Ceiling: err

 

Floor: Bad news bears

 

Ken's prediction: A struggle all year; we lose some games that are actually well pitched due to fielding errors, further adding to the offense's feeling like even 10 runs isn't enough.

 

****

 

Overall: 80-82

 

Pretty good, Ken. Fair and conservative.

[Kimmi]

I kinda like Price honestly. Erod Price Sale is still one helluva Playoff Rotation .Have them subsidize say 6 million this year ? I’d do it and then get Mazara on the cheap ? Trade Benny to Mets z?

 

I kind of like Price too. I never liked his contract, but I was opposed to trading him last year.

[Kimmi]

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that that the Yankees aren't the favorites to win the division. A shoe in? I wouldn't go that far.

 

Barring something catastrophic, the Yankees will make the playoffs. What happens in the playoffs is an entirely different story. Just like last year when you said the Yanks were the AL favorite in the postseason because no one could match your #1 and #2 pitchers. How'd that work out?

[Kimmi]

Yankees Are winning this Division but barely over the Jays .I have the Yankees getting swept in World Series but making it .Yankees lineup is sick and the Pitching is Solid .I almost wish they would win it so it would push ownership here in Boston to go big lol but this summer will be competitive in AL East I do think Boston finishes 3rd .maybe second with a surprise signing but we will see.

 

Ownership should never base their offseason on whether the Yankees win the World Series or not.

[Kimmi]

I continue to doubt that anyone further is being added to the Red Sox.

 

I am confident that we will see a couple more additions. It won't be anything major, but a couple of bit pieces. We are still looking for a LH bench player and probably a reliever. And who knows? Bloom may have a surprise up his sleeve.

[Kimmi]

Alright, here's an assessment.

 

The rotation

 

The ceiling is actually high. Sale, Rodriguez, Richards, & Eovaldi could stay healthy and regularly pitch quality starts, with Perez & Pivetta solid 4-5 starters. By year's end, it could be one of the best rotations in the majors.

 

The floor is abysmally low. Sale may never make it back this year with any effectiveness. Rodriguez could have aftereffects of his heart condition and never make it back this year beyond a few starts. Richards and Eovaldi could land on the DL for significant portions of the season. Perez and Pivetta, forced to pitch too many innings, could get exposed and shelled on a regular basis. Houck could be brought in to start but with only two pitches the league may catch up to him quick and outmatch him. It could truly be a disaster.

 

Ken's prediction: the rotation shows signs of success, but injuries and ineffectiveness plague it until the end of the season, when everything starts to come together, but alas it's too late to make the playoffs by then.

 

The bullpen

 

Ceiling: I think the most we can hope for is adequate.

 

Floor: While the relievers themselves aren't that bad, if the starting pitching gets shelled, the bullpen will get exposed and forced to pitch way too many innings.

 

Ken's prediction: As the starting pitching gets worse & worse, we get more and more bullpen starts, and the Red Sox find they can't hold a lead smaller than 4 runs by mid-summer. Again I think it gets better by year's end, but too late to save anything.

 

The offense

 

Ceiling: If JD Martinez and Andrew Benitendi regain their strokes, watch out American League.

 

Floor: I think the worst our offense can do is middle of the pack.

 

Ken's prediction: The offense starts out strong, but as the pitching bottoms out mid-summer, they start to feel like they have to score 10 runs a game and lose patience. Eventually the offense sputters as well. JD finds his stroke by year's end just as the starters start to keep us in games again, and the offense ends a respectable 5th in the AL.

 

Defense

 

Ceiling: err

 

Floor: Bad news bears

 

Ken's prediction: A struggle all year; we lose some games that are actually well pitched due to fielding errors, further adding to the offense's feeling like even 10 runs isn't enough.

 

****

 

Overall: 80-82

 

I think this is a pretty fair assessment. The potential is there for us to be a very good team. As I mentioned elsewhere, it's difficult to know exactly how well this team will play because there is a pretty wide gap between floor and ceiling.

 

I tend to be more optimistic than most, thinking that we will be closer to the ceiling than we are to the floor.

[moonslav59]

I don't think anyone is arguing that that the Yankees aren't the favorites to win the division. A shoe in? I wouldn't go that far.

 

Barring something catastrophic, the Yankees will make the playoffs. What happens in the playoffs is an entirely different story. Just like last year when you said the Yanks were the AL favorite in the postseason because no one could match your #1 and #2 pitchers. How'd that work out?

 

The Blue Jays might not be done adding players.

 

If the Yanks are really staying under the tax line, they are done adding.

[moonslav59]

I am confident that we will see a couple more additions. It won't be anything major, but a couple of bit pieces. We are still looking for a LH bench player and probably a reliever. And who knows? Bloom may have a surprise up his sleeve.

 

If we are going to stay under the tax line, which is no sure thing, we only have about $3M to spend, unless we dump some salary somewhere.

 

cots does not have the Perez signing listed and has us with $8M to spend.

 

Also, using everything we have left, leaves us nothing for deadline moves that add salary.

[moonslav59]

I think this is a pretty fair assessment. The potential is there for us to be a very good team. As I mentioned elsewhere, it's difficult to know exactly how well this team will play because there is a pretty wide gap between floor and ceiling.

 

I tend to be more optimistic than most, thinking that we will be closer to the ceiling than we are to the floor.

 

The thing that is different about this season and 2013, is that we don't really need any career best seasons from anyone, although we could see Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Beni and maybe even someone else do just that.

 

We just need enough players to do somewhere near what they have already done in the past 2-3 years (maybe 5-6 years for Richards).

 

It's not a lot to ask or expect.

 

The main issue is the health of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi & Richards.

 

To me, the return to form of JD and Beni are important, but not as much as the health of our rotation.

[Bellhorn04]

cots does not have the Perez signing listed and has us with $8M to spend.

 

I see Perez listed.

[moonslav59]

I see Perez listed.

 

Yes, you are right. I scrolled down to $5M on the lux tax line and didn't see him. He is listed below some making under $5M.

 

Okay, that means we have about $8M to spend. We could sign a cheap RP'er and maybe someone who can play CF well or 2B by moving EHern to CF.

 

We might want to keep $1-3M for deadline moves, so maybe we'll be able to spend $5-6M before opening day.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, you are right. I scrolled down to $5M on the lux tax line and didn't see him. He is listed below some making under $5M.

 

Okay, that means we have about $8M to spend. We could sign a cheap RP'er and maybe someone who can play CF well or 2B by moving EHern to CF.

 

We might want to keep $1-3M for deadline moves, so maybe we'll be able to spend $5-6M before opening day.

 

Don't forget Chaim dangled the carrot that staying under the tax line was 'not a firm mandate'.

[notin]

Don't forget Chaim dangled the carrot that staying under the tax line was 'not a firm mandate'.

 

Big deal. Until he crosses it, it might as well be a firm mandate.

 

And what does “not a firm mandate” mean anyway? That it was a polite request? As in John Henry saying “Chaim, I’m not telling you how to do your job, but I want you to know that I specifically will NOT be telling you to stay under the limit, whether you think it’s good for your career or not.”

[Bellhorn04]

Big deal. Until he crosses it, it might as well be a firm mandate.

 

And what does “not a firm mandate” mean anyway? That it was a polite request? As in John Henry saying “Chaim, I’m not telling you how to do your job, but I want you to know that I specifically will NOT be telling you to stay under the limit, whether you think it’s good for your career or not.”

 

Eh, I think it's more like, we'd prefer to stay under the limit, but if you see good reason to go over, we're open to it.

[moonslav59]

Since no key player on the Sox is older than 34, except Ottavino at 35, I have to think it is not impossible for many of our players to put up numbers at or near, or even higher than the numbers thay have put up recently. Below are the best seasons by current Sox players from 2018-2020, unless otherwise noted in blue. I will also include their current age to highlight how few players are past or significantly past prime years.

 

Past prime but not by a lot

34 JD Martinez ('18) .330 43 130 (1.031 OPS)

 

In peak prime years

30 Vazquez ('20) .801 OPS [('19) .276 23 72 (.798)] 30 HRs in last 655 ABs

29 Renfroe ('18) .248 26 68 (.805) [Hit 33 HRs in '19 in just 440 ABs]

29 Hernandez ('18) .256 21 52 (.806)

28 Bogaerts ('19) .309 33 117 (.939)

26 Benintendi ('18) .290 16 87 (.830)

 

Just entering prime or peak prime

25 Dalbec ('20) .263 8 16 in 92 PAs [162 avg: .263 56 113]

24 Verdugo ('20) .308 6 15 (.844) ['19-'20 combined: .300 18 59 (.827)]

24 Devers ('19) .311 32 115 (.916)

 

There are some amazing numbers listed here, and all 9 players have been over .800 in the last 3 seasons.

 

Now, the Rotation ERA/WHIP:

 

Past prime but not by a lot

32 Richards ('18) 3.66/1.284 in 76 IP [('14) 13-4 2.61/1.038 & 15-12 3.65/1.240 in '15]

 

In prime years

31 Sale ('18) 2.11/0.861 [('17) 17-8 2.90- 2nd in CYA]

30 Eovaldi ('20) 3.72/1.200 or ('18) 3.81/1.126 [('15) 14-3 4.20/1.451]

29 Perez ('20) 4.50/1.339 [('16) 10-11 4.39/ 1.414]

27 Rodriquez ('19) 19-6 3.81/1.328 [('18) 13-5 3.82/1.265]

27 Pivetta ('18) 7-14 4.77/1.305

 

Just entering prime or peak prime

24 Houck ('20) 3-0 0.53/0.882 in just 17 IP

 

[oldtimer]

Eh, I think it's more like, we'd prefer to stay under the limit, but if you see good reason to go over, we're open to it.

 

Really, if we don't make the playoffs but win a few more games by going over the CBT first level, is it worth it. I would say no. Leave the spending until we are positioned to make a run.

[oldtimer]

Since no key player on the Sox is older than 34, except Ottavino at 35, I have to think it is not impossible for many of our players to put up numbers at or near, or even higher than the numbers thay have put up recently. Below are the best seasons by current Sox players from 2018-2020, unless otherwise noted in blue. I will also include their current age to highlight how few players are past or significantly past prime years.

 

Past prime but not by a lot

34 JD Martinez ('18) .330 43 130 (1.031 OPS)

 

In peak prime years

30 Vazquez ('20) .801 OPS [('19) .276 23 72 (.798)] 30 HRs in last 655 ABs

29 Renfroe ('18) .248 26 68 (.805) [Hit 33 HRs in '19 in just 440 ABs]

29 Hernandez ('18) .256 21 52 (.806)

28 Bogaerts ('19) .309 33 117 (.939)

26 Benintendi ('18) .290 16 87 (.830)

 

Just entering prime or peak prime

25 Dalbec ('20) .263 8 16 in 92 PAs [162 avg: .263 56 113]

24 Verdugo ('20) .308 6 15 (.844) ['19-'20 combined: .300 18 59 (.827)]

24 Devers ('19) .311 32 115 (.916)

 

There are some amazing numbers listed here, and all 9 players have been over .800 in the last 3 seasons.

 

Now, the Rotation ERA/WHIP:

 

Past prime but not by a lot

32 Richards ('18) 3.66/1.284 in 76 IP [('14) 13-4 2.61/1.038 & 15-12 3.65/1.240 in '15]

 

In prime years

31 Sale ('18) 2.11/0.861 [('17) 17-8 2.90- 2nd in CYA]

30 Eovaldi ('20) 3.72/1.200 or ('18) 3.81/1.126 [('15) 14-3 4.20/1.451]

29 Perez ('20) 4.50/1.339 [('16) 10-11 4.39/ 1.414]

27 Rodriquez ('19) 19-6 3.81/1.328 [('18) 13-5 3.82/1.265]

27 Pivetta ('18) 7-14 4.77/1.305

 

Just entering prime or peak prime

24 Houck ('20) 3-0 0.53/0.882 in just 17 IP

 

 

Other than Houck and Dalbec, you don't have any prospects listed. I believe Bloom is considering at least a few as joining the team this year and becoming part of our roster for 2022. If he is thinking that way, it likely would effect how many moves he wants to make before ST. I have been high on Duran for some time and Downs will probably be on the roster before the year is out along with Mata. Why bring in players to block them now?

[Bellhorn04]

Really, if we don't make the playoffs but win a few more games by going over the CBT first level, is it worth it. I would say no.

 

There's no way of knowing in advance. Maybe we make no more moves, miss the playoffs by one game and look back with regret. Maybe we'll think, gee, we spent over $200 million anyway, maybe we should have spent a little more.

[oldtimer]

Not sure why Casas, Downs and Duran are the three players the Sox should be tanking seasons to wait for the arrival of.

 

Chances are they’re average at best, and it’s always possible some or all 3 just don’t pan out...

 

It's also possible they will pan out and even be better than average. They may well be better than what we could bring in for the few Mil we have left to spend.