A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

They still need pitching depth. Makes no sense to move Whitlock back.

 

Agreed. Trading or DFA'ing Payamps, Springs or Brice makes more sense.

[moonslav59]

IL (opening day): Sale & ERod

Retired: Pedroia

 

1. Benintendi LF

2. Verdugo CF

3. Bogaerts SS

4. Devers 3B

5. Martinez DH

6. Renfroe RF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Hernandez 2B

Bench: Plawecki, Arroyo, Chavis, Puello

 

SP: Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta, Houck (sent down when ERod/Sale return)

RP:Barnes, Ottavino, Brasier, D Hern, Taylor, Brice, Andriese, Whitlock

 

AAA/AA possible 2021 help:

C: Pereda/Wong

1B: Ockimey

2B: Arauz/Munoz (not on 40 man)/Downs

SS: Arauz/Munoz

3B: Munoz

LF: Munoz

CF: Duran

RF: Gettys

SP: (Houck), Mata, Seabold, Mazza, Hart

RP: Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Payamps. Weber, Feltman

 

 

 

[Nick]

I didn't think of it but if we're out of contention, Ottavino can be flipped to a playoff contender for additional prospects later in the year.

[moonslav59]

I didn't think of it but if we're out of contention, Ottavino can be flipped to a playoff contender for additional prospects later in the year.

 

Yes, same as Richards and maybe others.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I didn't think of it but if we're out of contention, Ottavino can be flipped to a playoff contender for additional prospects later in the year.

 

My goal as a Red Sox fan is to still be around when they acquire a star player that they want to keep.

[Bellhorn04]

My goal as a Red Sox fan is to still be around when they acquire a star player that they want to keep.

 

You mean 'the next time they acquire...'

 

You were around for Papi, Pedroia, Bogey, Sale etc.

[mvp 78]

My goal as a Red Sox fan is to still be around when they acquire a star player that they want to keep.

 

Xander Bogaerts.

[jad]

My goal as a Red Sox fan is to still be around when they acquire a star player that they want to keep.

 

No no! You have it all wrong. No one wants great players anymore. The name of the game is PROSPECTS!!! That's the future. I mean, I could watch them in Portland, sure. But to see them all on the Big Stage??? That's priceless!!!! Manny, Ortiz, Mookie, Yaz, Teddy ... man, those guys are just so LAST YEAR. Get with the program.

[mvp 78]

Chris Sale

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My goal as a Red Sox fan is to still be around when they acquire a star player that they want to keep.

 

Whew... had to bold "still"... as in the future. Mark McGwire's not here to talk about the past; but I will... in the future.

[moonslav59]

Whew... had to bold "still"... as in the future. Mark McGwire's not here to talk about the past; but I will... in the future.

 

Speaking of the future, here are our most recent stars we acquired and/or decided to keep for an extended time:

 

 

2021:

none

 

2020:

none

 

2019:

Sale extended for 5 years (20-24)

Bogey extended for 6 years (20-25- opt out after '22)

 

2018:

JD Martinez signed for 5 years

Eovaldi via trade & re-signed for 4 years (19-22)

Vaz extended for 3 years (19-21)

 

2016:

Price signed for 7 years (16-22) NOT WANTED to KEEP

Sale via trade

 

2015:

Pablo signed to 5 years (15-19 w option 6th yr) NOT KEPT

HRam signed for 4 years (15-18 w option 5th yr) NOT KEPT

Kimbrel via trade (3 years 16-18)

 

2014:

Porcello via trade and extended for 4 years (16-19)

ERod via trade and re-signed/arbs (15-21)

 

2013:

Pedey extended for 8 years (14-21)

Victorino signed for 3 years (13-15)

 

2012:

Buchholz extended for 4 years w 2 option yrs (12-15/17)

 

Did I miss anyone?

[moonslav59]

If we add Moreland, what else is next?

 

Will we go over the lux tax line or wait to the deadline to decide to buy or sell?

 

Our biggest remaining needs are...

 

1. CF (or 2B, if we play Hernandez in CF)

 

2. RP

 

3. SP

 

4. OF depth

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we add Moreland, what else is next?

 

Will we go over the lux tax line or wait to the deadline to decide to buy or sell?

 

Our biggest remaining needs are...

 

3. SP

 

 

 

1. SP, 2. SP, 3. SP

 

... or 1 SP for 3 years (cough, Odorizzi).

 

Seriously, as much as we want to watch good everyday position players, none of it matters if we don't have MLB pitchers. As much as we'd all like to forget 2020, it happened, and recently.

 

The Blue Jays may be spending big on quality regulars, but remember they added six starting pitchers in the past year. If the Red Sox did that -- and yes, some of their sick and injured may rebound -- the whole product improves, even if Kike alternates in CF and 2B with ready-or-not Duran and last year's platoon of stand-bys at the keystone sack.

[notin]

1. SP, 2. SP, 3. SP

 

... or 1 SP for 3 years (cough, Odorizzi).

 

Seriously, as much as we want to watch good everyday position players, none of it matters if we don't have MLB pitchers. As much as we'd all like to forget 2020, it happened, and recently.

 

The Blue Jays may be spending big on quality regulars, but remember they added six starting pitchers in the past year. If the Red Sox did that -- and yes, some of their sick and injured may rebound -- the whole product improves, even if Kike alternates in CF and 2B with ready-or-not Duran and last year's platoon of stand-bys at the keystone sack.

 

If the Red Sox did that?

 

Since the 2019 season, the Red Sox have added Perez (twice), Pivetta, Richards, Gossett, Mazza, Godley, Seabold, Whitlock and now German. Sure they are not all star pitchers, but let's not pretend they have been inactive on that front. Getting Sale and ERod back should be a huge boost to the rotation.

 

We'd all like it to be better, but that does not mean it is not already improved.

 

And some of those Jays' pitchers you mention are already off the team, correct? Taijuan Walker, for example...

[moonslav59]

1. SP, 2. SP, 3. SP

 

... or 1 SP for 3 years (cough, Odorizzi).

 

Seriously, as much as we want to watch good everyday position players, none of it matters if we don't have MLB pitchers. As much as we'd all like to forget 2020, it happened, and recently.

 

The Blue Jays may be spending big on quality regulars, but remember they added six starting pitchers in the past year. If the Red Sox did that -- and yes, some of their sick and injured may rebound -- the whole product improves, even if Kike alternates in CF and 2B with ready-or-not Duran and last year's platoon of stand-bys at the keystone sack.

 

If we got one guy, like Odorizzi, I think CF is the clear 2nd priority (or 2B, if we put EHern in CF).

 

If we sign Porcello, I might think another SP is more important than CF.

 

I do not think 1B is a top 5 need, but talk of Moreland returning seems real.

Edited January 27, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If we add Moreland, what else is next?

 

Will we go over the lux tax line or wait to the deadline to decide to buy or sell?

 

Our biggest remaining needs are...

 

1. CF (or 2B, if we play Hernandez in CF)

 

2. RP

 

3. SP

 

4. OF depth

 

 

If they can re-sign JBJ, they'll go over and then grab another decent pitcher or two. If they have to go cheap with Marisnick, maybe they just grab another cheap RP and call it a day?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox did that?

 

Since the 2019 season, the Red Sox have added Perez (twice), Pivetta, Richards, Gossett, Mazza, Godley, Seabold, Whitlock and now German. Sure they are not all star pitchers, but let's not pretend they have been inactive on that front. Getting Sale and ERod back should be a huge boost to the rotation.

 

We'd all like it to be better, but that does not mean it is not already improved.

 

And some of those Jays' pitchers you mention are already off the team, correct? Taijuan Walker, for example...

 

Yup, but let's not pretend I didn't say "MLB pitchers", not MLB potential, AAAA starters or prospects.

[notin]

Yup, but let's not pretend I didn't say "MLB pitchers", not MLB potential, AAAA starters or prospects.

 

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Jays rotation is Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Roark and Stripling.

 

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Sox rotation is Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez and Pivetta.

 

Whatever one of those two you prefer, it is certainly not better by much. The reason to give the Sox the edge right now is the eventual return of Sale...

[moonslav59]

So, leaving players returning from injury or down seasons out of the discussion, which AL teams improved over this off season, so far?

 

Toronto & Boston is my answer.

[Bellhorn04]

The X factor in the AL East starting rotations is bordering on comical.

 

Have we reached a point in baseball evolution that 80% of all starting pitchers are X factors?

[notin]

The X factor in the AL East starting rotations is bordering on comical.

 

Have we reached a point in baseball evolution that 80% of all starting pitchers are X factors?

 

Well, we like to focus on Sox pitchers with caveats "If Eovaldi and Richards can stay healthy", but then we look at an equally questionable Hyun-Jin Ryu on another team and say "He was a good addition"...

[a700hitter]

The X factor in the AL East starting rotations is bordering on comical.

 

Have we reached a point in baseball evolution that 80% of all starting pitchers are X factors?

soon a Quality Start will be 3 innings 2 ER.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Jays rotation is Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Roark and Stripling.

 

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Sox rotation is Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez and Pivetta.

 

Whatever one of those two you prefer, it is certainly not better by much. The reason to give the Sox the edge right now is the eventual return of Sale...

 

The point wasn't which was better, but that Toronto added that entire rotation in the past year (plus Walker) -- when they weren't "all-in", either. Pearson emerged from the minors, but looks like he could be a future ace. The others are at least stable... while Boston has Perez. Hopefully, Pivetta will continue to establish himself, but what we get out of the rest is 50-50 at best.

 

Bauer's not the answer, and the next best thing -- Odorizzi -- is coming off injury... just like Kluber, Richards, Taillon, etc, etc. Teams can never have enough pitching question marks. Maybe this twist on the old adage is better posed as an interrogative: Can we ever have enough pitching question marks? Do we really need more pitching question marks? Can we stop with the pitching question marks?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, we like to focus on Sox pitchers with caveats "If Eovaldi and Richards can stay healthy", but then we look at an equally questionable Hyun-Jin Ryu on another team and say "He was a good addition"...

 

Ryu led the NL in ERA and was Cy Young runner-up in the full season before the Jays signed him. He finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting for Toronto last year..

[harmony]

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Jays rotation is Ryu, Ray, Pearson, Roark and Stripling.

 

As it stands now, per Roster Resource, the Sox rotation is Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Richards, Perez and Pivetta.

 

Whatever one of those two you prefer, it is certainly not better by much. The reason to give the Sox the edge right now is the eventual return of Sale...

FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2021 starting pitching WAR of 12.9 for the Blue Jays and 12.6 for the Red Sox (including 2.6 from Chris Sale):

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14#SP

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#SP

[notin]

Ryu led the NL in ERA and was Cy Young runner-up in the full season before the Jays signed him. He finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting for Toronto last year..

 

And he also frequently misses every other year with injuries.

 

He's the same type of pitcher as Eovaldi and Richards. Talent is not the problem...

[harmony]

And he also frequently misses every other year with injuries.

 

He's the same type of pitcher as Eovaldi and Richards. Talent is not the problem...

Hyun Jin Ryu has posted 16.9 fWAR in 807 career MLB innings, including 6.6 fWAR over the past two seasons.

 

Nathan Eovaldi has posted 12.9 fWAR in 966 career innings, including 0.7 over the past two seasons.

 

Garrett Richards has posted 12.1 fWAR in 804.2 career innings, including 0.7 over the past two seasons.

 

Steamer and ZiPS project 2021 WAR of 2.9 and 3.0 for Ryu, 2.5 and 1.2 for Eovaldi and 1.5 and 1.1 for Richards.

 

Ryu has made 41 starts over the past two seasons; only 26 pitchers have made more starts.

Edited January 27, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Ryu led the NL in ERA and was Cy Young runner-up in the full season before the Jays signed him. He finished 3rd in the AL Cy Young voting for Toronto last year..

 

Ryun also turns 34 this season. It has to go downhill at some point.

[moonslav59]

Ryun also turns 34 this season. It has to go downhill at some point.

 

Plus, he's their ace and should have better numbers than our #3 and #4, even when all are healthy.

[moonslav59]

Best fWAR seasons since 2014:

7.6 Sale '17

6.2 Sale '18

5.6 Sale '15

5.3 Sale '16

5.0 Sale '14

4.8 Ryu '19

4.3 Richards '14

4.0 Ryu '14

3.7 ERod '19

3.6 Sale '19

3.3 Eovaldi '14

3.3 R Ray '17

3.2 Eovaldi '15

3.2 Roark '14

3.2 Roark '16

2.8 Pivetta '18

2.8 Richards '15

2.8 Roark '17