A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

Ryun also turns 34 this season. It has to go downhill at some point.

The same can be said of Garrett Richards, who turns 33, and Chris Sale, who turns 32.

 

Not to mention J.D. Martinez, who turns 34.

Edited January 27, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The same can be said of Garrett Richards, who turns 32, and Chris Sale, who turns 32.

 

.

 

Saying two guys turn 32 is not the same as saying 1 guy turns 34.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ryun also turns 34 this season. It has to go downhill at some point.

 

Even vintage wine must sour at some point and aged cheese grow mold that can be inedible (if not dangerous).

 

But from what I saw of Pearson, he looks better right now than any minor league pitcher in Boston's entire system. The big question: is his current simulated value higher than even Luis Castillo's...

[harmony]

Saying two guys turn 32 is not the same as saying 1 guy turns 34.

Pardon the typo: Garrett Richards turns 33 years old this season.

[moonslav59]

Pardon the typo: Garrett Richards turns 33 years old this season.

 

That changes everything.

 

You win.

[notin]

Even vintage wine must sour at some point and aged cheese grow mold that can be inedible (if not dangerous).

 

But from what I saw of Pearson, he looks better right now than any minor league pitcher in Boston's entire system. The big question: is his current simulated value higher than even Luis Castillo's...

 

Well, maybe he needs more than 18 IP in The Show first...

[moonslav59]

Could we be looking at the Enrique Hernandez signing from the wrong angle?

 

I know the sample sizes are not too large, but out of 74 CF'ers with 600+ innings in CF since 2017, Enrique places 7th in UZR/150 at +10.4. (JBJ is at 4.0.)

 

Since 2015, he places 6th out of 71 CF'ers with 900+ innings in CF- just ahead of Lorenzo Cain. (JBJ is 18th at 4.9.)

 

At 2B, he places 69th out of 72 2Bmen since 2015 at -6.7.

 

Maybe, we should be looking for a 2Bman NOT a CF'er!

 

Kolton Wong is still out there,right?

 

Jonathan Schoop?

[moonslav59]

How about we sign Jonathan Schoop & Alex Colome?

 

1. E Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Beni-Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Schoop 2B

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, rehabbing starter Chris Sale (elbow) experienced "a setback around the holidays due to neck stiffness."

The good news is that Sale has already resumed throwing on flat ground as he continues his long road to recovery from Tommy John surgery, but this neck issue helps to explain why he has not yet gotten on a mound. He had the reconstructive elbow procedure in March and probably won't be an option for the Red Sox rotation until sometime this May. The 31-year-old left-hander is under contract with the Red Sox through 2024.

[notin]

How about we sign Jonathan Schoop & Alex Colome?

 

1. E Hernandez CF

2. Verdugo RF

3. Bogey SS

4. Devers 3B

5. JD DH

6. Beni-Renfroe LF

7. Dalbec 1B

8. Vazquez C

9. Schoop 2B

 

 

 

 

Actually if the Sox spent on a few players age 30 or less with 3 or 4 year deals, they become part of the rebuild that’s in play next season. Like Odorizzi, Kela, and Schoop, which I don’t think is a ridiculous scenario. Team could compete in 2021.

[mvp 78]

Actually if the Sox spent on a few players age 30 or less with 3 or 4 year deals, they become part of the rebuild that’s in play next season. Like Odorizzi, Kela, and Schoop, which I don’t think is a ridiculous scenario. Team could compete in 2021.

 

I agree that they aren't too far off. Too much stock has been put into 2020 numbers for Beni and JD. Also, this pitching staff should be average rather than bottom 5. A top offense and average pitching gets them into WC contention.

[moonslav59]

Actually if the Sox spent on a few players age 30 or less with 3 or 4 year deals, they become part of the rebuild that’s in play next season. Like Odorizzi, Kela, and Schoop, which I don’t think is a ridiculous scenario. Team could compete in 2021.

 

I expected at least 2 deals like this- deals that help in 2021 and also 2022 and beyond.

 

Now, I'm wondering, if we do just one!

 

It's like we are punting to 2022 with all these one year deals.

 

Now, this may work out, as maybe we can trade some of these one year players, beef up our farm, and then have a lot of budget space to splurge next winter. Even so, how can it hurt to add one three year guy?

[moonslav59]

Actually if the Sox spent on a few players age 30 or less with 3 or 4 year deals, they become part of the rebuild that’s in play next season. Like Odorizzi, Kela, and Schoop, which I don’t think is a ridiculous scenario. Team could compete in 2021.

 

Do you like the idea of going after a 2Bman NOT CF'er and using Hernandez where he seems to be better defensively (CF)?

[Nick]

I expected at least 2 deals like this- deals that help in 2021 and also 2022 and beyond.

 

Now, I'm wondering, if we do just one!

 

It's like we are punting to 2022 with all these one year deals.

Now, this may work out, as maybe we can trade some of these one year players, beef up our farm, and then have a lot of budget space to splurge next winter. Even so, how can it hurt to add one three year guy?

 

Ottavino (via trade) and Renfro are only one year deals I see. Others have club options attached. It's possible Bloom is monitoring our younger players to see if there are developments this year leading to 2022 promotion.

[moonslav59]

Ottavino (via trade) and Renfro are only one year deals I see. Others have club options attached. It's possible Bloom is monitoring our younger players to see if there are developments leading to 2022 promotion.

 

Options for just one more year.

 

We have made no deals longer than 1-2 years.

 

I find it doubtful, Bloom sees no available player he likes enough to commit to 3 or more years. Either the cost was too high, or the budget constraints and needs to fill so many gaps made it all but impossible to spend enough on someone worthy of 3+ years.

[oldtimer]

I expected at least 2 deals like this- deals that help in 2021 and also 2022 and beyond.

 

Now, I'm wondering, if we do just one!

 

It's like we are punting to 2022 with all these one year deals.

 

Now, this may work out, as maybe we can trade some of these one year players, beef up our farm, and then have a lot of budget space to splurge next winter. Even so, how can it hurt to add one three year guy?

 

I think they are looking for another outfielder and would have traded Beni by now if they could have gotten something considered valuable in return. In general, I think the Sox are looking to promote a few likely candidates from the farm during 2021 so want to be judicious in not blocking them with multi-year contracts for journeyman players this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Options for just one more year.

 

We have made no deals longer than 1-2 years.

 

I find it doubtful, Bloom sees no available player he likes enough to commit to 3 or more years. Either the cost was too high, or the budget constraints and needs to fill so many gaps made it all but impossible to spend enough on someone worthy of 3+ years.

 

Maybe he just likes the plan of promoting Duran and Downs at the MLB minimum more.

[moonslav59]

Maybe he just likes the plan of promoting Duran and Downs at the MLB minimum more.

 

I understand why he's doing it, especially at 2B and CF/OF, but teams can always use the stability of having a good pitcher under team control for 3 or more years- like Odorizzi.

 

Not many closer types got 3+ year deals, this winter. Did any?

[harmony]

I understand why he's doing it, especially at 2B and CF/OF, but teams can always use the stability of having a good pitcher under team control for 3 or more years- like Odorizzi.

 

Not many closer types got 3+ year deals, this winter. Did any?

Liam Hendriks got four years:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/white-sox-to-sign-liam-hendriks.html

[moonslav59]

Liam Hendriks got four years:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/white-sox-to-sign-liam-hendriks.html

 

Thanks. I forgot.

 

I'm kinda glad we didn't go there, so maybe my argument is losing steam.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Since many closers have up-and-down limited shelf lives, very few are ever worth longterm contracts.

 

Starting pitchers, preferably under-30, who have proven their durability after at least a few stable seasons of workload IP, may be better investments.

[moonslav59]

Due to so many 1 year deals and option years. the Sox have the ability to free up a ton of "budget space," next winter: (Lux Tax Dollars)

 

$13.8M Pedey

$10M Richards (+ option year)

$8.9M Ottavino

$8.3M ERod

$5M Perez (+ option year)

$4.5M Barnes

$4.5M Vaz (+ option year)

$1.9M Andriese (+ option year)

 

After 2022: (see option years above)

$22M JD

$20M Bogey (if he opts out)

$17M Eovaldi

$7M E Hernandez

$6M Beni

$2M Plawecki

 

[notin]

Liam Hendriks got four years:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/white-sox-to-sign-liam-hendriks.html

 

Three years with a team option. The option vests if he is traded.

[kenmeister]

According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, rehabbing starter Chris Sale (elbow) experienced "a setback around the holidays due to neck stiffness."

The good news is that Sale has already resumed throwing on flat ground as he continues his long road to recovery from Tommy John surgery, but this neck issue helps to explain why he has not yet gotten on a mound. He had the reconstructive elbow procedure in March and probably won't be an option for the Red Sox rotation until sometime this May. The 31-year-old left-hander is under contract with the Red Sox through 2024.

 

May would be a joy. I don't expect to see Sale until August, and even then for 5 inning starts through the end of this season.

[harmony]

Three years with a team option. The option vests if he is traded.

Thank you for the correction.

[mvp 78]

May would be a joy. I don't expect to see Sale until August, and even then for 5 inning starts through the end of this season.

 

I agree with you. Maybe we see video of him throwing in May, but that's about it. They could rehab him by having him work out of the pen? IDK.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Red Sox have interest in both Mitch Moreland and Travis Shaw. Former earned a ring (and crushed one of the most underrated home runs in Sox history); latter "plays" multiple positions. Which guy interests you more? Which one is more interesting to Bloom?

[moonslav59]

Red Sox have interest in both Mitch Moreland and Travis Shaw. Former earned a ring (and crushed one of the most underrated home runs in Sox history); latter "plays" multiple positions. Which guy interests you more? Which one is more interesting to Bloom?

 

I wouldn't mind either but would prefer Moreland, however, 1B is pretty far down on my positional need wish list.

 

I'm leaning towards signing a 2Bman over a CF'er now, as I have convinced myself that Hernandez is better defensively in CF than 2B. That is priority #2 or #3 to adding another pitcher or two or three or ...

 

1B is like 5th on my list- tops.

[moonslav59]

How about 2 years of Beni for 2 years of Adam Frazier (2B)- making slightly less than Beni?

(PIT can flip Beni to someone else to save money.)

 

Hernandez plays CF, Renfroe LF and Verdugo RF.

[Bellhorn04]

How about 2 years of Beni for 2 years of Adam Frazier (2B)- making slightly less than Beni?

(PIT can flip Beni to someone else to save money.)

 

Hernandez plays CF, Renfroe LF and Verdugo RF.

 

Renfroe is 912 vs LHP and 717 vs RHP. Much better in a platoon.