A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why we maybe shouldn't worry too much about JD Martinez' 2020: 7 HR, 27 RBI, .213 (traditional stats)...

 

Bottom 10 AL Power Hitters

Gary Sanchez 10, 24, .147

Edwin Encarnacion 10, 19, .157

Rougned Odor 10, 30, .167

Joey Gallo 10, 26, .181

Shohei Ohtani 7, 24, .190

Willie Calhoun 1, 13, .190

Matt Olson 14, 42, .195

Carlos Santana 8, 30, .199

Kris Davis 2, 10, .200

Miguel Sano 13, 25, .204

[mvp 78]

Why we maybe shouldn't worry too much about JD Martinez' 2020: 7 HR, 27 RBI, .213 (traditional stats)...

 

Bottom 10 AL Power Hitters

Gary Sanchez 10, 24, .147

Edwin Encarnacion 10, 19, .157

Rougned Odor 10, 30, .167

Joey Gallo 10, 26, .181

Shohei Ohtani 7, 24, .190

Willie Calhoun 1, 13, .190

Matt Olson 14, 42, .195

Carlos Santana 8, 30, .199

Kris Davis 2, 10, .200

Miguel Sano 13, 25, .204

 

Why?

[Bellhorn04]

Why we maybe shouldn't worry too much about JD Martinez' 2020: 7 HR, 27 RBI, .213 (traditional stats)...

 

Bottom 10 AL Power Hitters

Gary Sanchez 10, 24, .147

Edwin Encarnacion 10, 19, .157

Rougned Odor 10, 30, .167

Joey Gallo 10, 26, .181

Shohei Ohtani 7, 24, .190

Willie Calhoun 1, 13, .190

Matt Olson 14, 42, .195

Carlos Santana 8, 30, .199

Kris Davis 2, 10, .200

Miguel Sano 13, 25, .204

 

3 reasons:

 

-Short season

-COVID-19 issues

-Change in video room rules

 

I think JDM is a true professional with a lot of pride and he comes back strong in 2021.

[moonslav59]

3 reasons:

 

-Short season

-COVID-19 issues

-Change in video room rules

 

I think JDM is a true professional with a lot of pride and he comes back strong in 2021.

 

I agree, but JD was very big on use of the video room.

 

That won't be changing.

 

(The others may not, either.)

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but JD was very big on use of the video room.

 

That won't be changing.

 

(The others may not, either.)

 

I think he can adapt.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com writes on newly acquired rule 5 draftees:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2020/12/scouting-report-updates-garrett.html

 

Garrett Whitlock

Throws from a three-quarters arm slot. Short arm action behind, hides the ball. Delivery is a little stiff, but he repeats it well.

Fastball: 90-93 mph. Tops out at 95 mph.

Slider: 77-82 mph. Slurvy breaking ball with two-plane break. Potential average offering.

Changeup: 81-85 mph. Third pitch at the moment, but will show late drop when at its best. Can turn it over on occasion. Potential fringe-average offering.

Summation: Potential emergency swingman type, capable of starting or relieving. Future potential is hard to nail down as he has yet to retake the mound in a competitive game situation since his surgery, so it is not clear whether his stuff and command have come fully back. Fastball/slider combination should play in a bulk inning bullpen role at least, but he will need to develop his changeup more and show the ability to miss more bats to stick as a starter long-term.

 

Tyreque Reed

Physical Description: Thick, stocky build. Very strong and physical.

Hit: Starts square and utilizes a leg kick timing device. Swing is relatively short and he has some feel for the strike zone. He does have swing-and-miss in his game and will have to show he can handle more advanced pitching after struggling in High A to start 2019. Velocity, especially up in the zone, is a challenge for him. Will have to show he can hit pitches in that area as he moves up the ladder.

Power: Plus-plus raw power. Power is more strength-based, but has shown the ability to impact the ball to all fields. How his power plays will depend on how his hit tool develops. Plus power potential.

Run: Well below-average speed.

Field: Below-average defensive profile. Lacks athleticism and fluidity. Profiles best at first base, but played a little bit in the corner outfield in 2017 after signing.

Arm: Average arm strength.

Summation: Projects as an organizational depth bat. Has one carrying tool in his power, but does not project to add much defensive value and there are serious questions about how his hit tool will play against more advanced pitching.

 

Kaleb Ort

Scouting Report: Tall right-hander with a mature frame. No remaining projection. Relief-only delivery with considerable effort. Fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 98 mph. Fastball has shown the ability to miss bats. Command and control need work. Primary secondary is a slider. Tore his UCL in high school but rehabbed the injury and did not have surgery. Signed with the Diamondbacks in 2016 out of the independent Frontier League. Was cut in training camp and went back to the Frontier League briefly before signing with the Yankees in May 2017 at age 25. Potential organizational reliever.

[moonslav59]

I think he can adapt.

 

I think so, too, but it's not a sure bet.

[Bellhorn04]

I think so, too, but it's not a sure bet.

 

My attitude is that it doesn't hurt to be optimistic about things like this. Whether you're optimistic or pessimistic, it's not going to change anything.

[notin]

My attitude is that it doesn't hurt to be optimistic about things like this. Whether you're optimistic or pessimistic, it's not going to change anything.

 

As George Will famously said, "The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."...

[Bellhorn04]

As George Will famously said, "The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."...

 

And I agree with that.

 

But the nice part about being an optimist is that you feel better up until you find out whether you're right or not.

[moonslav59]

And I agree with that.

 

But the nice part about being an optimist is that you feel better up until you find out whether you're right or not.

 

Then, the massive letdown!

[moonslav59]

Well, soxprospects projects 27 players for the 26 man roster, including 6 acquisitions:

 

(Sale on IL, Pedey "inactive hitter." Brewer as "trade candidate," and Walden & Springs "on roster bubble."

 

SP:Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck, ____, ____

RP: ____, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, Valdez, Brice, Whitlock

C: Vazquez, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: ______

IF: Arroyo

UT: Chavis

LHH: _____

SS: Bogaerts

3B: Devers

LF: Beni

CF: ____

RF: Verdugo

DH: JD

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Notable projected AAA players:

SP: Seabold, Weber, Mazza, Mata, Hart (AA: Ward, Reyes)

RP: Feltman, Bazardo, Shawaryn, Gonsalves, Payamps, Hall, Espinal

C: Grullon (AA Wong)

1B: Ockimey (AA Casas)

2B: Downs

SS: Arauz

3B: de la Guerra (AA Potts)

LF: Mieses

CF: Duran (AA Rosario)

RF: Gettys (AA Wilson)

DH: Munoz

 

[Bellhorn04]

Then, the massive letdown!

 

Not for me. I strike a balance between optimist and realist.

[moonslav59]

I'll take a shot at my projected 2021 Red Sox 26 and 40 man roster on opening day:

 

Sox in a 3-team deal (accepted on Trade values site):

Sox get

SP Taillon, C Stallings, LF Polanco & 2B Adam Frazier (from PIT)

RP Anderson & CF Kiermaier (from TB)

TB gets

C Vazquez & Groome (from BOS)

PIT gets

Fleming (from TB) & Beni, Chatham & Wong (from BOS)

 

Brice is traded for non 40 man roster prospect.

 

Sox sign Brad Hand (Closer), Oliver Perez (LH RP) & Pillar CF

 

Pedey retires.

 

26 Man Roster:

IL: Sale (41st man)

SP: Taillon, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck

RP: Hand, Anderson, Barnes, Brasier, DHern, Taylor, O Perez, Whitlock

C: Stallings, Plawecki

1B: Dalbec

2B: Frazier (LHH)

3B: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Polanco (LHH)/Pillar RHH (CF)

CF: Kiermaier (LHH)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

UT: Chavis

IF: Arroyo

 

 

Remaining 40 man roster players (AAA or AA)

P: Seabold, Mazza, Valdez, Bazardo, Mata, Brewer, Walden, Payamps, Springs

C: Grullon

IF: Arauz, Potts

OF: Wilson, Rosario

[Bellhorn04]

SP: Taillon, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck

 

Here's why it would be nice to sign Porcello on a reasonable deal. He would provide some insurance against the various health and durability issues inherent in that rotation.

[moonslav59]

Not for me. I strike a balance between optimist and realist.

 

I'm a realist, but recently that means almost total pessimism.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a realist, but recently that means almost total pessimism.

 

You shouldn't be a total pessimist about this team. 4 rings, and we've got Henry, Bloom and Cora. (And Venable and Varitek etc.)

 

And not far from a contending team.

[Kimmi]

I think he had some tweets about things not looking good for Cora's return before it happened. Maybe he's just a touch on the pessimistic side.

 

He could be a touch pessimistic. IMO, he usually tells it like it is, and I am not a pessimistic person.

[Kimmi]

3 reasons:

 

-Short season

-COVID-19 issues

-Change in video room rules

 

I think JDM is a true professional with a lot of pride and he comes back strong in 2021.

 

Agreed.

 

I also think having Cora back will be a big help.

[Kimmi]

As George Will famously said, "The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."...

 

And I agree with that.

 

But the nice part about being an optimist is that you feel better up until you find out whether you're right or not.

 

The thing about being optimistic is that you're sometimes, even often, disappointed.

 

I'm okay with that.

[jad]

And I agree with that.

 

But the nice part about being an optimist is that you feel better up until you find out whether you're right or not.

 

Really? I never do! When I try that, all I get is the unnerving and depressing feeling that I'm just kidding myself. Then, when things turn out like s*** (e.g., you have a year-long pandemic that half your fellow citizens claim doesn't exist), I just kick myself for not being better prepared.

[oldtimer]

The thing about being optimistic is that you're sometimes, even often, disappointed.

 

I'm okay with that.

 

It's a nice trait to be optimistic. It hard to remain that way when virtually nothing occurred to help the Sox during the winter meetings. i would put myself ore into the realist category, happy to be surprised when something good actually happens. Hiring Blood and Cora made me happy.

[moonslav59]

He could be a touch pessimistic. IMO, he usually tells it like it is, and I am not a pessimistic person.

 

If you look back at all my pre-season win projections, I'm almost always overly optimistic- sometimes by a lot from what the final numbers are.

 

The weird thing is, the early spring of 2013, I was not optimistic.

 

I wasn't in 2004, until we traded Nomar away.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why?

 

Martinez wasn't alone in his off-"year". All names on the list were 20-30 homer hitters and .800-.900 OPS guys before the pandemic that had worse batting averages than JD. There were plenty more in the NL (including half the Cubs). Established players all over the MLB had brutal 2020s... and now teams have this winter to decide if struggles were aberrations due to slow "starts", difficult adjustments, or declining skills.

 

JD Martinez is a student of the game whose main focus is his swing. He remade his career once, with video as a vital resource. Chances are he's already working hard on developing new ways to regain and sustain old success.

[moonslav59]

Martinez wasn't alone in his off-"year". All names on the list were 20-30 homer hitters and .800-.900 OPS guys before the pandemic that had worse batting averages than JD. There were plenty more in the NL (including half the Cubs). Established players all over the MLB had brutal 2020s... and now teams have this winter to decide if struggles were aberrations due to slow "starts", difficult adjustments, or declining skills.

 

JD Martinez is a student of the game whose main focus is his swing. He remade his career once, with video as a vital resource. Chances are he's already working hard on developing new ways to regain and sustain old success.

 

My guess is, if you randomly choose any 60 game sample size in any season, you will find very poor numbers for many top players. Maybe there were slightly more in this shortened 2020 season, due to the reasons you mention, but the major factor could just be "small sample sizes."

[oldtimer]

My guess is, if you randomly choose any 60 game sample size in any season, you will find very poor numbers for many top players. Maybe there were slightly more in this shortened 2020 season, due to the reasons you mention, but the major factor could just be "small sample sizes."

 

The 2020 season was so different in many ways for the players. It would be a mistake to judge jDM's performance and make decisions based on just that. No desire to try to move him and having Cora back may give him a boost. However, I would be monitoring him closely during 2021. Beni's case has a longer period of declining performance. His benefit to the team as an average defender who doesn't provide a lot of power lies mainly in his on base percentage and his decline in that area has been continuing. He was pathetic is his few 2020 games. i would monitor him even more closely as better options must be available.

[moonslav59]

The 2020 season was so different in many ways for the players. It would be a mistake to judge jDM's performance and make decisions based on just that. No desire to try to move him and having Cora back may give him a boost. However, I would be monitoring him closely during 2021. Beni's case has a longer period of declining performance. His benefit to the team as an average defender who doesn't provide a lot of power lies mainly in his on base percentage and his decline in that area has been continuing. He was pathetic is his few 2020 games. i would monitor him even more closely as better options must be available.

 

Let's not hold a 52 PA sample size, like Beni's in 2020, against anybody, especially under the circumstances he was facing, okay?

 

Now, let's look at the rest of his career? I don't see a steady or "declining performance." I see a young player with some ups and downs, early in his career. Remember, the guy had just 151 games in the minors.

 

His OBP in his first 3 seasons in MLB (all seasons with 615+ PAs):

.352

.366

.343 (He was at .357 at the end of August 2019).

 

One could argue those numbers are remarkably consistent.

 

Now, I'm not saying I'm unconcerned: I am. He certainly needs watching. I can agree on that.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My guess is, if you randomly choose any 60 game sample size in any season, you will find very poor numbers for many top players. Maybe there were slightly more in this shortened 2020 season, due to the reasons you mention, but the major factor could just be "small sample sizes."

 

I guess the same could be said in reverse to explain great "seasons" by players like Ozuna and Abreu (while guys like Soto and Acuna are just good). But another kind of question some GMs have to at least wonder: did JBJ finally figure it out, or did he just get hot?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let's not hold a 52 PA sample size, like Beni's in 2020, against anybody, especially under the circumstances he was facing, okay?

 

Now, let's look at the rest of his career? I don't see a steady or "declining performance." I see a young player with some ups and downs, early in his career. Remember, the guy had just 151 games in the minors.

 

His OBP in his first 3 seasons in MLB (all seasons with 615+ PAs):

.352

.366

.343 (He was at .357 at the end of August 2019).

 

One could argue those numbers are remarkably consistent.

 

Now, I'm not saying I'm unconcerned: I am. He certainly needs watching. I can agree on that.

 

 

At the time, Beni's two-year contract at $10 mil seemed reasonable, certainly not an overpay for a 25-year old starting MLBer who was an All-Star Final Vote candidate and Gold Glove finalist. But now we see David Dahl signing for $3 mil with the Rangers. Michael Taylor, a glove-first centerfielder, signed for half that with KC.

 

A lot of decent players are still available that can improve a team ready to invest. Most likely Bloom and Co. are focusing first on shoring up the pitching staff; Alex Speier notes the Sox have interest in Sugano from Japan, Odorizzi, Kluber and Hill. Since all bring more question marks, I'd like Boston to sign them all... then we can hope that maybe four of our eight injured or ill can be answers in establishing a legit rotation.