A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Then, there is always the exception that is found: the 2015 National Championship Kansas City Royals:

 

SP (listed by most GS'd)

 

33 Volquez 13-9 3.55

28 Ventura 13-8 4.08

24 Guthrie 8-8 5.95

24 Duffy 7-8 4.08

18 Young 11-6 3.06

13 Cueto 4-7 4.76

 

Team SP'er 65-53/ ERA 4.34

 

 

KC's MVP was their bullpen; many have tried to duplicate their success, few haven't failed (thankfully).

 

At least the 1990 Beastie Boys had Jose Blame-it-on Rijo...

[moonslav59]

KC's MVP was their bullpen; many have tried to duplicate their success, few haven't failed (thankfully).

 

At least the 1990 Beastie Boys had Jose Blame-it-on Rijo...

 

Certainly, their pen was their strength, but they only had the third best RP fWAR in the AL.

They were 15th in Blown Saves at 20 (56 Saves).

They were 11th in xFIP- (95) & 14th in K/BB (2.63).

 

 

[notin]

KC's MVP was their bullpen; many have tried to duplicate their success, few haven't failed (thankfully).

 

At least the 1990 Beastie Boys had Jose Blame-it-on Rijo...

 

Nasty Boys, not Beastie Boys...

[mvp 78]

Nasty Boys, not Beastie Boys...

 

Norm, Rob and Randy appreciate this.

[notin]

Norm, Rob and Randy appreciate this.

 

Yes, they are usually very grateful.

 

Norm Charlton was so generous, he even let Roger Clemens get a hit off him once...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, they are usually very grateful.

 

Norm Charlton was so generous, he even let Roger Clemens get a hit off him once...

 

Norm Charlton was more generous than that to the Red Sox. His horrible season as closer for the Mariners in 1997 led to the Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek trade.

[notin]

Norm Charlton was more generous than that to the Red Sox. His horrible season as closer for the Mariners in 1997 led to the Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek trade.

 

I guess I am beginning to understand why 5Gold refused to call him Nasty...

[Kimmi]

I remember hearing on the radio, here in Houston, that the Astros were in on Eovaldi "to the end," but they did not want to give the 4th year.

 

My only complaint about the Eovaldi contract was the 4th year. As a person who thinks most contracts are too long, I was not unhappy with the Eovaldi contract.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I guess I am beginning to understand why 5Gold refused to call him Nasty...

 

That does it, I'm changing my name to 5Goldbergs, where those boys are always Beastie.

[Bellhorn04]

My only complaint about the Eovaldi contract was the 4th year. As a person who thinks most contracts are too long, I was not unhappy with the Eovaldi contract.

 

And it's an admirably specific complaint.

[moonslav59]

Maybe one year was too long.

[kenmeister]

Assuming Pedroia will not be on the 40 man roster come opening day, we have 37 players in total, as of now.

 

23 No chance of being DFA'd:

Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Sale, D Hern, Vazquez, Dalbec, ERod, Houck, Mata, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Barnes, Seabold, Groome, JD Martinez, Brasier, Arroyo, Potts, Chavis, Rosario, Beni, Taylor

 

RED= No Options

10 Bubble (maybe traded):

Wong, Mazza, Bazardo, Brewer, Valdez, Chatham, Arauz, Payamps, Grullon, Plawecki

 

4 Likely to be DFA'd (or traded assuming anybody will give something for them):

Brice, Springs, Wilson, Walden

 

Walden was pretty good for us in 2019. I hope he gets another chance.

[mvp 78]

Walden was pretty good for us in 2019. I hope he gets another chance.

 

He was getting hit hard last year. If he doesn't get his slider back, he's toast.

[notin]

He was getting hit hard last year. If he doesn't get his slider back, he's toast.

 

Walden strikes me as a guy who had one good season. I don't expect anything good from him going forward..

[mvp 78]

Walden strikes me as a guy who had one good season. I don't expect anything good from him going forward..

 

I tend to agree. I would have DFA'd him by now.

[notin]

I tend to agree. I would have DFA'd him by now.

 

There main reason not to DFA him is the DFA-pending line in front of him is a lot longer than it should be,,,

[mvp 78]

There main reason not to DFA him is the DFA-pending line in front of him is a lot longer than it should be,,,

 

I would have pushed a lot of them out. If you don't really see a future for a guy on your team, better to cut him now to give him an opportunity to see if he sticks on somewhere else. If they are still looking for a seat during Spring Training, you could bring them back again if you wanted.

[moonslav59]

Walden was pretty good for us in 2019. I hope he gets another chance.

 

He did look good in 2019, but it may have been a fluke.

 

He may be one of those guys that can be DFA'd, go unclaimed and return to our minor leagues as a non 40 man roster player.

 

I must admit, I don't know much about Payamps, so maybe Walden belongs ahead of him, but who on my list would you DFA before Walden?

[notin]

I would have pushed a lot of them out. If you don't really see a future for a guy on your team, better to cut him now to give him an opportunity to see if he sticks on somewhere else. If they are still looking for a seat during Spring Training, you could bring them back again if you wanted.

 

I do think the Sox could and should DFA any (or all) of Walden. Springs, Mazza, Valdez, and Brewer. Most if not all will clear waivers and be brought back on MiLB contracts. And any of them who do get claimed or sign elsewhere are not exactly irreplaceable...

[moonslav59]

I would have pushed a lot of them out. If you don't really see a future for a guy on your team, better to cut him now to give him an opportunity to see if he sticks on somewhere else. If they are still looking for a seat during Spring Training, you could bring them back again if you wanted.

 

We know we are going to be cutting 4-5 players, but maybe Bloom is trying to work out trades before letting them go.

 

I seriously doubt any team has clearly worse players than ours in their 36-40 slots, but who knows?

 

I think Walden needs to prove himself in the minors, assuming there is one, next year, and then maybe get another shot at the bigs.

[mvp 78]

I do think the Sox could and should DFA any (or all) of Walden. Springs, Mazza, Valdez, and Brewer. Most if not all will clear waivers and be brought back on MiLB contracts. And any of them who do get claimed or sign elsewhere are not exactly irreplaceable...

 

I'd keep Mazza and Brewer around, though they could sneak probably through waivers. I don't think Valdez sneaks through though.

[notin]

He did look good in 2019, but it may have been a fluke.

 

He may be one of those guys that can be DFA'd, go unclaimed and return to our minor leagues as a non 40 man roster player.

 

I must admit, I don't know much about Payamps, so maybe Walden belongs ahead of him, but who on my list would you DFA before Walden?

 

The only reason to not add Payamps to my list is he is brand new and at the very least, remains untried. But he is 27 with 7 career IP at the MLB level and did not exactly dazzle in AA and AAA.

 

I wouldn't miss him.

 

The same goes for Austin Brice, and the only reason I did not add him is he actually has a signed contract for 2021, so I know he isn't going anywhere any time soon...

[mvp 78]

I'd DFA Chatham and Wilson before Mazza, Brewer and Valdez.

[notin]

I'd keep Mazza and Brewer around, though they could sneak probably through waivers. I don't think Valdez sneaks through though.

 

Valdez is 29 years old and is career highlight is pitching 30 innings with a 1.615 WHIP and 4.38 FIP. He is basically the luckier version of Chris Mazza. And if I were a rival GM,I'd claim Mazza before I claim Valdez. Their small sample size 2020 MLB numbers are extremely close, but at least Mazza got his in the more difficult capacity of being a starter.

 

Brewer is just frustrating. His ceiling is 7th bullpen arm/mop up guy...

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure they see in Brewer.

[notin]

I'd DFA Chatham and Wilson before Mazza, Brewer and Valdez.

 

I would hold both first. Both are younger, and while their ceiling might be "minimum wage bench bat," the Sox might be in a position to need people who work for the league minimum.

 

Finding the next Chris Mazza or Valdez might prove as difficult as finding sand at the beach. Especially if either or both goes all Marcus Walden on us and tanks in his next season...

[moonslav59]

I would hold both first. Both are younger, and while their ceiling might be "minimum wage bench bat," the Sox might be in a position to need people who work for the league minimum.

 

Finding the next Chris Mazza or Valdez might prove as difficult as finding sand at the beach. Especially if either or both goes all Marcus Walden on us and tanks in his next season...

 

Once we acquire a CF'er, and we will, Wilson should be DFA'd.

 

I've never been all that high on Chatham, but I think he has trade value.

 

To me, there are dozens of Mazzas, Brewers and Valdezes out there on the waiver wires almost constantly. In fact, all but Brewer were acquired that way and have done little to prove they are better than replacement level.

[mvp 78]

Valdez is 29 years old and is career highlight is pitching 30 innings with a 1.615 WHIP and 4.38 FIP. He is basically the luckier version of Chris Mazza. And if I were a rival GM,I'd claim Mazza before I claim Valdez. Their small sample size 2020 MLB numbers are extremely close, but at least Mazza got his in the more difficult capacity of being a starter.

 

Brewer is just frustrating. His ceiling is 7th bullpen arm/mop up guy...

 

Valdez got hit hard by the Jays in back to back appearances. Get rid of those (aberrations?) and his numbers look better.

[moonslav59]

Valdez got hit hard by the Jays in back to back appearances. Get rid of those (aberrations?) and his numbers look better.

 

Why assume that wasn't the "real" Valdez?

 

The guy has spent 10 seasons in the minors and has a 1.35 WHIP (1.38 in AAA) in almost 700 IP, there.

 

His AAA ERA was 4.56.

Edited December 9, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure they see in Brewer.

 

He was fine as a reliever last year (3.51 xfip). They never should have tried him out in the starting role (5.15 xfip).