A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[oldtimer]

At the time, Beni's two-year contract at $10 mil seemed reasonable, certainly not an overpay for a 25-year old starting MLBer who was an All-Star Final Vote candidate and Gold Glove finalist. But now we see David Dahl signing for $3 mil with the Rangers. Michael Taylor, a glove-first centerfielder, signed for half that with KC.

 

A lot of decent players are still available that can improve a team ready to invest. Most likely Bloom and Co. are focusing first on shoring up the pitching staff; Alex Speier notes the Sox have interest in Sugano from Japan, Odorizzi, Kluber and Hill. Since all bring more question marks, I'd like Boston to sign them all... then we can hope that maybe four of our eight injured or ill can be answers in establishing a legit rotation.

 

I agree that Bloom is focusing on pitching staff moves and he should be. That doesn't prevent him from making moves with our outfield at the same time, particularly if a means of improvement at a reasonable price crops up.

[Kimmi]

It's a nice trait to be optimistic. It hard to remain that way when virtually nothing occurred to help the Sox during the winter meetings. i would put myself ore into the realist category, happy to be surprised when something good actually happens. Hiring Blood and Cora made me happy.

 

As we all know, 2020 has been a difficult year, not only with the Sox, but just in general. I understand why it is difficult for some people to remain optimistic.

 

I consider myself an optimistic realist (or a realistic optimist). I am fully aware of the reality of things. Having a positive outlook and hoping for the best does are not mutually exclusive with being a realist.

[Bellhorn04]

Really? I never do! When I try that, all I get is the unnerving and depressing feeling that I'm just kidding myself. Then, when things turn out like s*** (e.g., you have a year-long pandemic that half your fellow citizens claim doesn't exist), I just kick myself for not being better prepared.

 

I probably didn't make it clear enough, but when I said I was an optimist I was really only referring to the state of the Red Sox.

[Kimmi]

If you look back at all my pre-season win projections, I'm almost always overly optimistic- sometimes by a lot from what the final numbers are.

 

The weird thing is, the early spring of 2013, I was not optimistic.

 

I wasn't in 2004, until we traded Nomar away.

 

Yes, I know that you are usually one of the more optimistic posters here. It's interesting that you were not optimistic in 2 of the years that we won championships. 2004 was a big factor in teaching me to never give up hope. I counted the Sox out probably after Game 2 of the ALCS, most definitely after Game 3.

[Kimmi]

My guess is, if you randomly choose any 60 game sample size in any season, you will find very poor numbers for many top players. Maybe there were slightly more in this shortened 2020 season, due to the reasons you mention, but the major factor could just be "small sample sizes."

 

The same would be true about W-L records of teams in randomly chosen 60 game samples.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I know that you are usually one of the more optimistic posters here. It's interesting that you were not optimistic in 2 of the years that we won championships. 2004 was a big factor in teaching me to never give up hope. I counted the Sox out probably after Game 2 of the ALCS, most definitely after Game 3.

 

Being a pessimist after Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS doesn't even count as being a pessimist.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I know that you are usually one of the more optimistic posters here. It's interesting that you were not optimistic in 2 of the years that we won championships. 2004 was a big factor in teaching me to never give up hope. I counted the Sox out probably after Game 2 of the ALCS, most definitely after Game 3.

 

Game 3 was a huge let down. I was hopeful that they’d just put up a fight and win games 4 and 5.

[mvp 78]

Martinez wasn't alone in his off-"year". All names on the list were 20-30 homer hitters and .800-.900 OPS guys before the pandemic that had worse batting averages than JD. There were plenty more in the NL (including half the Cubs). Established players all over the MLB had brutal 2020s... and now teams have this winter to decide if struggles were aberrations due to slow "starts", difficult adjustments, or declining skills.

 

JD Martinez is a student of the game whose main focus is his swing. He remade his career once, with video as a vital resource. Chances are he's already working hard on developing new ways to regain and sustain old success.

 

All the names.

 

Chris Davis.

 

Pick one.

[Bellhorn04]

All the names.

 

Chris Davis.

 

Pick one.

 

Not Chris Davis - Khris Davis.

[Bellhorn04]

There are a bunch of otherwise good hitters who had horrible 2020 numbers.

 

A good place to start might be the Cubs. Baez .599, Rizzo .755, Bryant .701. (Bryant had some injury issues, I guess.)

 

On the flip side, Heyward .848.

 

Kind of screams small sample variances.

[mvp 78]

Not Chris Davis - Khris Davis.

 

That’s a whoopsie on me.

[notin]

There are a bunch of otherwise good hitters who had horrible 2020 numbers.

 

A good place to start might be the Cubs. Baez .599, Rizzo .755, Bryant .701. (Bryant had some injury issues, I guess.)

 

On the flip side, Heyward .848.

 

Kind of screams small sample variances.

 

Pitchers, too.

 

Jack Flaherty’s ERA was nearly 5.00...

[moonslav59]

Yes, I know that you are usually one of the more optimistic posters here. It's interesting that you were not optimistic in 2 of the years that we won championships. 2004 was a big factor in teaching me to never give up hope. I counted the Sox out probably after Game 2 of the ALCS, most definitely after Game 3.

 

I was really talking about pre-start of season optimism, and although I liked our chances in 2004, it was hard for any Sox fan to get overly optimistic about winning a ring.

 

Once that season started I was hooked. Once the Nomar trade was made I became very confident.

 

The trades of 2012 bothered me. I was all for the cleaning of the house, but I felt we played it "halfway." That was the term I used. I felt we avoided a true rebuild by not acquiring enough young players ofr a longer term look. We tried to stay "just good enough" to give the fans false hopes for 2013 and not really enough to significantly affect the future beyond 2013. (Cespedes was a one year get.)

 

I liked many of the winter signings, but felt we needed an ace. I've always hated rebuilding a rotation from the 4/5 slot, and Dempster did not thrill me, at all.

 

One more thing about my optimism, for the most part, I am usually one of the last fans or posters to "give up" on a season in progress. This was not true in 2019, as I think I was maybe the first to think we had a great chance before the season started and then give up so early. I was calling for a fire sale by June... many suggested trades involving Eovaldi or Price.

 

As for now, I have a little optimism for 2021, a lot depending on what Bloom does this winter, but I have a growing optimism for our longer term success, thanks in large part to the Bloom hiring.

 

I think we did a better than expected job drafting with such low picks. I like the trades Bloom made to bring us a young star like Verdugo and prospects like Downs, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, Wong and Wallace. Our farm still has a way to go, but it is no longer a bottom 5 system. It may very well be in the top 15-18 after the next draft.

 

I was one of many who saw"the cliff" coming, but I saw and still see that as realism not pessimism, but I'm more and more hopeful the down period is shorter than I originally expected.

[notin]

Per MLBTR, the Soxare interested in Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano. Can't tell much about Sugano, but he appears to be a high K/low BB guy in Japan. That doesn't always translate to being an effective starter in the US...

[moonslav59]

Per MLBTR, the Soxare interested in Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano. Can't tell much about Sugano, but he appears to be a high K/low BB guy in Japan. That doesn't always translate to being an effective starter in the US...

 

I've mentioned Odorizzi as a good second tier signing and would like him in our rotation.

 

Hill is a very good starter, but we need someone reliable and durable.

 

Sugano seems like a good gamble.

 

I have yet to hear our name linked to any decent RP'ers.

[oldtimer]

This will be a difficult year to sign players as they will rightly want to draw out the negotiation phase to get the best offer. On the other hand, a lot of clubs have financial issues where they want to sign players for less than in a normal year. The Sox are in the position of really needing to make changes and the environment doesn't make that easy. The winter meetings have come and gone with no important signings. The realist in me tells me that we won't have changes made until nearly Spring Training. that will be hard for me personally and probably others on the site as well. I think Bloom is out there trying hard in a difficult situation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Pitchers, too.

 

Jack Flaherty’s ERA was nearly 5.00...

 

NOW we know why all those dozens of Red Sox pitchers in 2020 had 5+ ERAs...

 

...Knot (look -- a visual and silently verbal pun!)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The realist in me tells me that we won't have changes made until nearly Spring Training. .

 

I have to agree, and I think this strategy might just be the plan for the Reset Sox: wait until all the other clubs make their one or two moves, and then reap the harvest from among dozens of unsigned players, who may have no choice but to settle for less than they hoped for in a pandemic winter. There won't be many big spenders left...

 

I think teams shopping expensive stars will also be forced to take a lot less in talent return because; 1. no-fans-in-stands economics, and 2. a lot of these guys will be free agents in a year, when clubs can sign them and only lose a draft pick instead of multiple, ranked prospects. Boston's big splash trade, if it happens, may also be closer to Valentine's Day than Christmas.

[Kimmi]

Game 3 was a huge let down. I was hopeful that they’d just put up a fight and win games 4 and 5.

 

I was just hoping that they'd avoid the sweep.

[Elktonnick]

I have to agree, and I think this strategy might just be the plan for the Reset Sox: wait until all the other clubs make their one or two moves, and then reap the harvest from among dozens of unsigned players, who may have no choice but to settle for less than they hoped for in a pandemic winter. There won't be many big spenders left...

 

I think teams shopping expensive stars will also be forced to take a lot less in talent return because; 1. no-fans-in-stands economics, and 2. a lot of these guys will be free agents in a year, when clubs can sign them and only lose a draft pick instead of multiple, ranked prospects. Boston's big splash trade, if it happens, may also be closer to Valentine's Day than Christmas.

 

From everything I have heard in the national baseball media seems to agree with that point of view.

[Kimmi]

I was really talking about pre-start of season optimism, and although I liked our chances in 2004, it was hard for any Sox fan to get overly optimistic about winning a ring.

 

Once that season started I was hooked. Once the Nomar trade was made I became very confident.

 

The trades of 2012 bothered me. I was all for the cleaning of the house, but I felt we played it "halfway." That was the term I used. I felt we avoided a true rebuild by not acquiring enough young players ofr a longer term look. We tried to stay "just good enough" to give the fans false hopes for 2013 and not really enough to significantly affect the future beyond 2013. (Cespedes was a one year get.)

 

I liked many of the winter signings, but felt we needed an ace. I've always hated rebuilding a rotation from the 4/5 slot, and Dempster did not thrill me, at all.

 

One more thing about my optimism, for the most part, I am usually one of the last fans or posters to "give up" on a season in progress. This was not true in 2019, as I think I was maybe the first to think we had a great chance before the season started and then give up so early. I was calling for a fire sale by June... many suggested trades involving Eovaldi or Price.

 

As for now, I have a little optimism for 2021, a lot depending on what Bloom does this winter, but I have a growing optimism for our longer term success, thanks in large part to the Bloom hiring.

 

I think we did a better than expected job drafting with such low picks. I like the trades Bloom made to bring us a young star like Verdugo and prospects like Downs, Seabold, Rosario, Potts, Wong and Wallace. Our farm still has a way to go, but it is no longer a bottom 5 system. It may very well be in the top 15-18 after the next draft.

 

I was one of many who saw"the cliff" coming, but I saw and still see that as realism not pessimism, but I'm more and more hopeful the down period is shorter than I originally expected.

 

I did not consider us to be playing it half way back in 2012 and 2013. We were making short term moves to stay competitive while giving the youngsters time to get ready. All part of the 5 year plan. IMO, we are in a somewhat similar situation now. We can make moves to be competitive in 2021, but we're not at the point where we're ready to make any big moves. The goal is to make the right short term moves to remain competitive while rebuilding for long term sustained success. Not necessarily an easy task, but doable.

[Kimmi]

Per MLBTR, the Soxare interested in Odorizzi, Rich Hill and Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano. Can't tell much about Sugano, but he appears to be a high K/low BB guy in Japan. That doesn't always translate to being an effective starter in the US...

 

Christopher Smith

@smittyonmlb

·

15m

Tomoyuki Sugano, who the Red Sox reportedly have interest in, has averaged 1.8 walks per nine innings in 1,362 innings in Japan. That's called good control.

 

JoeB's favorite stat - K/BB ratio. It's usually a pretty good indicator.

[Bellhorn04]

JoeB's favorite stat - K/BB ratio. It's usually a pretty good indicator.

 

Which is part of the reason I was surprised he was lukewarm about Schilling getting in the HOF. Schilling is 8th all-time in that stat, and most of the guys ahead of him are still active with much shorter careers.

[moonslav59]

NOW we know why all those dozens of Red Sox pitchers in 2020 had 5+ ERAs...

 

...Knot (look -- a visual and silently verbal pun!)

 

I don't get it. If hitters were struggling, pitchers should have had better numbers.

 

If both were struggling the numbers should have evened out.

[moonslav59]

I did not consider us to be playing it half way back in 2012 and 2013. We were making short term moves to stay competitive while giving the youngsters time to get ready. All part of the 5 year plan. IMO, we are in a somewhat similar situation now. We can make moves to be competitive in 2021, but we're not at the point where we're ready to make any big moves. The goal is to make the right short term moves to remain competitive while rebuilding for long term sustained success. Not necessarily an easy task, but doable.

 

Obviously, I was proven wrong, but I did feel much better about the team after signing Victorino, Gomes & Napoli.

 

We also ended up flipping Cespedes for Porcello, then extending him for only his prime years- 2 things I didn't see coming when we traded Lester for 1 year of Cespedes.

[Kimmi]

Which is part of the reason I was surprised he was lukewarm about Schilling getting in the HOF. Schilling is 8th all-time in that stat, and most of the guys ahead of him are still active with much shorter careers.

 

Yeah, that's a bit surprising. I'm with you on Schilling - he deserves to be in.

[Kimmi]

Obviously, I was proven wrong, but I did feel much better about the team after signing Victorino, Gomes & Napoli.

 

We also ended up flipping Cespedes for Porcello, then extending him for only his prime years- 2 things I didn't see coming when we traded Lester for 1 year of Cespedes.

 

I don't think any of us were happy about the way things went down with Lester. But once negotiations came to a halt, trading him was the right thing to do, like trading Mookie was the right thing to do.

 

Victorino, Gomes, and Napoli are the exact types of deals I'm looking for this season. Mitch Moreland comes to mind.

[moonslav59]

I don't think any of us were happy about the way things went down with Lester. But once negotiations came to a halt, trading him was the right thing to do, like trading Mookie was the right thing to do.

 

Victorino, Gomes, and Napoli are the exact types of deals I'm looking for this season. Mitch Moreland comes to mind.

 

I liked the Vic signing, despite knowing and saying it was a year too long, but a 3 year deal being a year too long beats the hell out of a 7 year deal that is 3 years too long.

 

The first Napoli deal was a steal, due mainly to health concerns that kept the price & years low.

 

I was not a big fan of the Drew signing, because of my wishes for Iggy becoming our FT SS.

 

I hated the Dempster deal, and we lucked out when he retired.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't get it. If hitters were struggling, pitchers should have had better numbers.

 

If both were struggling the numbers should have evened out.

 

The Red Sox hitters would have had better numbers if they were allowed to bat against Red Sox pitchers... but maybe not verse vice-a.

[Bellhorn04]

I liked the Vic signing, despite knowing and saying it was a year too long, but a 3 year deal being a year too long beats the hell out of a 7 year deal that is 3 years too long.

 

There are very few free agent contracts given to premier players that aren't at least one or two years too long.