A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

Sign Sugaono, Kim and Arihara and be done with it.

 

Cora emphasized that it’s unfair to any player to speak as though he has a defined role now, with months of offseason transactions still to come, but he also praised the manner in which Barnes handled ninth-inning duties in 2020. “If the season starts tomorrow and we have the lead in the ninth inning and we haven’t used Matt in the seventh or eighth, I flip him the ball and I believe he can get the three outs and get us to the next day,” Cora said before going on to call Barnes one of the game’s best relievers over the past few seasons. Some may raise an eyebrow at that description, given Barnes’ 3.83 ERA since 2017. It’s worth noting, though, that of the 232 pitchers with 200-plus innings thrown over the past four seasons, only six have struck out a higher percentage of opposing batters than Barnes (34.1 percent), and only 22 have a lower FIP than Barnes’ 3.30.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sign Sugaono, Kim and Arihara and be done with it.

 

 

I was thinking the exact same thing. I prefer players who are described with words like "fundamentals" and "consistency".

[notin]

Sign Sugaono, Kim and Arihara and be done with it.

 

 

Why not Nishikawa for CF as well?

[mvp 78]

Why not Nishikawa for CF as well?

 

He might have a good glove, but he'll k about 150 times this year with no power to back it up. Also like 5 years older than Kim. Not really interested.

[notin]

He might have a good glove, but he'll k about 150 times this year with no power to back it up. Also like 5 years older than Kim. Not really interested.

 

I thought you were all about a defense-first CF?

[mvp 78]

I thought you were all about a defense-first CF?

 

Look, we can't have Bumgarner hit in lieu of this guy! I want a glove first CFer who isn't an automatic out. It's why I'm not clamoring for a guy like Billy Hamilton.

[notin]

Look, we can't have Bumgarner hit in lieu of this guy! I want a glove first CFer who isn't an automatic out. It's why I'm not clamoring for a guy like Billy Hamilton.

 

That leaves Bradley. I’m all for it, but most of the other readily available glove-first centerfielders are automatic outs.

 

I’m hoping Bloom can swing a deal for Ender Inciarte...

[moonslav59]

That leaves Bradley. I’m all for it, but most of the other readily available glove-first centerfielders are automatic outs.

 

I’m hoping Bloom can swing a deal for Ender Inciarte...

 

Is Kiermaier too weak a hitter for you guys?

 

Career

.732 JBJ

.720 Inciarte

.720 Kiermaier

 

But...

 

OPS 2018-2020:

.742 JBJ (.727 from 2017-2019)

.688 Inciarte

.669 Kiermaier

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Is Kiermaier too weak a hitter for you guys?

 

Career

.732 JBJ

.720 Inciarte

.720 Kiermaier

 

But...

 

OPS 2018-2020:

.742 JBJ (.727 from 2017-2019)

.688 Inciarte

.669 Kiermaier

 

 

 

 

Kiermaier is acceptable. I just think Nishikawa would hit like .610. Not into that.

[notin]

Is Kiermaier too weak a hitter for you guys?

 

Career

.732 JBJ

.720 Inciarte

.720 Kiermaier

 

But...

 

OPS 2018-2020:

.742 JBJ (.727 from 2017-2019)

.688 Inciarte

.669 Kiermaier

 

 

 

 

I'm fine with Kiermaier, whom I have plugged relentlessly on this site and even included in my prediction, which so far is 0 for whatever...

[moonslav59]

Kiermaier is acceptable. I just think Nishikawa would hit like .610. Not into that.

 

In theory, a trade for Kiermaier or Inciarte will cost us about the same as signing JBJ, but since they have negative trade value, we could maybe get a useful player that fills a need or builds up the farm along with one of them, and the return package should be light.

 

For example, Kiermaier and Anderson has a net value on BTV of +14. Kiermaier, Anderson & Fairbanks= 24.

Kiermaier & Yarbrough is +5.4, while Kiermaier, Yarbough & Fairbanks is +15.6.

 

Mix and match these guys to come up with a decent deal for us:

21 Vaz

17 Dalbec

12 Duran

7.5 Chavis

5 Chatham

4.5 Ward

3.7 Groome

2.1 Arauz or Wilson

1.1 Grullon

1.0 Bello

 

 

 

 

[notin]

Kiermaier is acceptable. I just think Nishikawa would hit like .610. Not into that.

 

Kiermaier has a .669 OPS (82 OPS+) over the last 3 seasons. His .720 carer OPS is carried largely by his early career...

[mvp 78]

Kiermaier has a .669 OPS (82 OPS+) over the last 3 seasons. His .720 carer OPS is carried largely by his early career...

 

We already know Kiermaier comes with gold glove defense and can hit passably. We don't know that about Nishikawa.

[notin]

In theory, a trade for Kiermaier or Inciarte will cost us about the same as signing JBJ, but since they have negative trade value, we could maybe get a useful player that fills a need or builds up the farm along with one of them, and the return package should be light.

 

For example, Kiermaier and Anderson has a net value on BTV of +14. Kiermaier, Anderson & Fairbanks= 24.

Kiermaier & Yarbrough is +5.4, while Kiermaier, Yarbough & Fairbanks is +15.6.

 

Mix and match these guys to come up with a decent deal for us:

21 Vaz

17 Dalbec

12 Duran

7.5 Chavis

5 Chatham

4.5 Ward

3.7 Groome

2.1 Arauz or Wilson

1.1 Grullon

1.0 Bello

 

 

 

 

 

With St. Louis. Anthony Reyes (5.5) and CF Lane Thomas (5.0) for Jarren Duran? More likely St. Louis sees dealing Thomas as a chance to clear up an OF logjam, which then gets negated by acquiring Duran. They might make the deal for Bryan Mata (12.4), assuming Boston was willing to part with him. (I wouldn't.).

 

With KC. Whit Merrifield (36.9) and Danny Duffy (-9.0) for Dalbec and Duran? A bit draining on a weak farm, which might be less of a concern for a pitcher better than Duffy.

 

Chavis to St. Louis for Lane Thomas?

 

Chavis to Philly for Adam Hasely?

[moonslav59]

Kiermaier has a .669 OPS (82 OPS+) over the last 3 seasons. His .720 carer OPS is carried largely by his early career...

 

JBJ, Kiermaier & Inciarte are all almost the same exact age.

 

JBJ has certainly had a well-documented up-and-down past few years and career. It's hard to know which JBJ will be next year or in 2022. His defense appears to be slipping, but he started at such a high point, that he is still a clear plus, in my book.

 

JBJ's roller coaster career:

OPS+

53 first 2 years (530 PAs)

118 next 2 years (891 PAs)

91 next 2 years (1076 PAs)

98 last 2 yeaars (784 PAs)

 

Kiermaier has seen two pretty distinct divisions:

2014-2017: 107 OPS+

2018-2020: 82 OPS+

 

Inciarte hs been the most consistent: between .705 and .759 from 2015-2019 and only 4 of his 7 seasons being between .732 and .759. His worst two seasons were his first (.677) and his last (.512 in just 131 PAs)

 

 

[oldtimer]

With St. Louis. Anthony Reyes (5.5) and CF Lane Thomas (5.0) for Jarren Duran? More likely St. Louis sees dealing Thomas as a chance to clear up an OF logjam, which then gets negated by acquiring Duran. They might make the deal for Bryan Mata (12.4), assuming Boston was willing to part with him. (I wouldn't.).

 

With KC. Whit Merrifield (36.9) and Danny Duffy (-9.0) for Dalbec and Duran? A bit draining on a weak farm, which might be less of a concern for a pitcher better than Duffy.

 

Chavis to St. Louis for Lane Thomas?

 

Chavis to Philly for Adam Hasely?

 

Why so anxious to trade away Duran. From what Cora says he wants, to play faster with more speed on the bases, Duran looks like an up an comer who would fit Cora's profile. He is playing in the DR now I believe, to get him ready.

[harmony]

Why so anxious to trade away Duran. From what Cora says he wants, to play faster with more speed on the bases, Duran looks like an up an comer who would fit Cora's profile. He is playing in the DR now I believe, to get him ready.

https://bosoxinjection.com/2020/12/18/red-sox-prospect-jarren-durans-winter-league-unusual-start/

[moonslav59]

With St. Louis. Anthony Reyes (5.5) and CF Lane Thomas (5.0) for Jarren Duran? More likely St. Louis sees dealing Thomas as a chance to clear up an OF logjam, which then gets negated by acquiring Duran. They might make the deal for Bryan Mata (12.4), assuming Boston was willing to part with him. (I wouldn't.).

 

With KC. Whit Merrifield (36.9) and Danny Duffy (-9.0) for Dalbec and Duran? A bit draining on a weak farm, which might be less of a concern for a pitcher better than Duffy.

 

Chavis to St. Louis for Lane Thomas?

 

Chavis to Philly for Adam Hasely?

 

I think Merrifield would be a fine addition, but I think his BTV is too high. Duffy shows very little promise of returning to form.

 

I don't know enough about Hasely or Thomas to have an opinion, but I do think Chavis is over-valued.

 

I've seen rumors that Pittsburgh is looking to deal Musgrove or Taillon and have mentioned Adam Frazier (2B) and Josh Bell (1B) as possible pieces.

 

Fangraphs has Frazier as a slight plus defender at 2B, since 2017, and he's got a career OPS at about .750. Bell had a great year in 2019. I'd hate to part with Dalbec, but for these three, I'd do it (other would be needed). I've mentioned including Polanco in the deal to lessen the return needed, but he doesn't really fit in with our roster, unless we sell low & trade Beni. (one could counter that Pitt is selling low on Bell, as his BTV is "0".

 

Bell has one arb year left, after this and is projected to make $6M, this year- which is too much for Pitt. Frazier has one arb year left is may make about $4M, this year- again, too much for Pitt. Polanco has one year left at $11.6M. Taillon, of course, is the prize. He also has one arb year left.

 

In theory, I'd like to see us trade for a player or players with more than just 2 years of team control, but 2 guys with 2 years is nice. Downs should be ready at 2B in 2 years. Casas will be close at 1B.

 

The BTV site accepted this deal, but I can't see how Pitt would do it:

 

Chavis (7.5) + Chatham (4.9)

for

Taillon (20.3), Frazier (4.0), Bell (0.0) & Planaco (-13.5)

 

They also accepted Chavis & Beni for the same.

 

(I'd even add Groome or Ward to any of the deals above. I'd probably give Dalbec & Chatham for those 4.)

 

If we drop Polanco, this gets the deal done on BTV:

 

Duran, Chavis & Chatham

for

Taillon, Frazier & Bell

 

We fill 2 needs and get 1B insurance for Dalbec without losing a big name player or prospect (sorry Duran fans).

 

This might be a more realistic trade from Pitt's point of view 9all accepted on BTV):

 

Dalbec, Chatham & Groome

 

for

 

Taillon, Frazier and Bell

 

(I'd even add Beni for Polanco to sweeten the deal for Pitt, but BTV denies that trade. It even denies that deal swapping out Chavis for Dalbec. It makes Pitt give $3M to BOS to accept it.)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Why so anxious to trade away Duran. From what Cora says he wants, to play faster with more speed on the bases, Duran looks like an up an comer who would fit Cora's profile. He is playing in the DR now I believe, to get him ready.

 

It's not so much about not liking Duran, but to get good quality, we have to give something up.

[notin]

How about

 

St. Louis gets: Vazquez

Pitt gets: Bader

Boston gets: Taillon

 

Or

 

the one I proposed a while back on BTV

 

Boston gets: Taillon

Philly gets: Vazquez

Pitt gets: SS prospect Bryson Stott (BA #87 pre-2020)

 

This plays into each of the three GM's strengths, all of whom we know very well as they are former/current Sox GMs or Presidents.

 

Dombrowski gets to deal a prospect who likely will not impact Philly in 2021 or 2022, and in return he fills a major gap on the MLB roster.

 

Cherington gets a top 100 prospect in a salary dump.

 

Bloom gets a major-talent reclamation project on the cheap.

 

This deal is so perfect, I don't think any of us would be surprised if the three teams made it twice...

[moonslav59]

How about

 

St. Louis gets: Vazquez

Pitt gets: Bader

Boston gets: Taillon

 

Or

 

the one I proposed a while back on BTV

 

Boston gets: Taillon

Philly gets: Vazquez

Pitt gets: SS prospect Bryson Stott (BA #87 pre-2020)

 

This plays into each of the three GM's strengths, all of whom we know very well as they are former/current Sox GMs or Presidents.

 

Dombrowski gets to deal a prospect who likely will not impact Philly in 2021 or 2022, and in return he fills a major gap on the MLB roster.

 

Cherington gets a top 100 prospect in a salary dump.

 

Bloom gets a major-talent reclamation project on the cheap.

 

This deal is so perfect, I don't think any of us would be surprised if the three teams made it twice...

 

These simpler deals are much more likely than my 6 player deals.

 

We'd need another trade or signing to fill our catcher slot, unless you are okay with Plawecki/Grullon with Wong a ways off.

[TylerD]

Here’s the breakdown, we win everything this year

 

 

 

 

 

 

The end.

[notin]

Why so anxious to trade away Duran. From what Cora says he wants, to play faster with more speed on the bases, Duran looks like an up an comer who would fit Cora's profile. He is playing in the DR now I believe, to get him ready.

 

It's not about being "anxious" to trade Duran. Both trades with him I suggested were realisitc (per BTV) for what it ould get, but one of them I think the other team would be hesitant for, and the other I think the Sox should be.

 

 

But if the Sox want to get a good pitcher, they are likely going to have to trade someone(s) good. Do you think Duran should be untouchable in any deal?

[notin]

These simpler deals are much more likely than my 6 player deals.

 

We'd need another trade or signing to fill our catcher slot, unless you are okay with Plawecki/Grullon with Wong a ways off.

 

I keep checking MLBTR to see when that Pitt/Philly/Boston one happens. So far, not yet, but I have faith. I blame Dombrowski for holding it up, simply because I like blaming him for things.

 

Of course, a lot of my Vazquez trades also invovled a floow up of signing Zunino, which is clearly not an option any more. Plan B from the FA list looks a lot less attractive. Although Wilson Ramos does have a few skills going for him. not sure why every team that acquires him tries to pawn him off so quickly. Is he an insufferable human being or something?

Edited December 19, 2020 by notin

[moonslav59]

I keep checking MLBTR to see when that Pitt/Philly/Boston one happens. So far, not yet, but I have faith. I blame Dombrowski for holding it up, simply because I like blaming him for things.

 

Of course, a lot of my Vazquez trades also invovled a floow up of signing Zunino, which is clearly not an option any more. Plan B from the FA list looks a lot less attractive. Although Wilson Ramos does have a few skills going for him. not sure why every team that acquires him tries to pawn him off so quickly. Is he an insufferable human being or something?

 

Getting Stallings added on from Pitt could make it happen

[notin]

Getting Stallings added on from Pitt could make it happen

 

With no Plan B, maybe Vazquez is no longer one of the Sox trade chips. So then, who is? Who is the Plan B? Who’s the fallback option?

 

Jeter Downs?

Bobby Dalbec? (His last name does sorta rhyme with “fallback.”)

[oldtimer]

https://bosoxinjection.com/2020/12/18/red-sox-prospect-jarren-durans-winter-league-unusual-start/

 

I hadn't seen that information. Interesting that nothing was said about his defense, which was what he was supposed to be working on in Puerto Rico.

[oldtimer]

It's not about being "anxious" to trade Duran. Both trades with him I suggested were realisitc (per BTV) for what it ould get, but one of them I think the other team would be hesitant for, and the other I think the Sox should be.

 

 

But if the Sox want to get a good pitcher, they are likely going to have to trade someone(s) good. Do you think Duran should be untouchable in any deal?

I'd much rather see Beni go than Duran. I'm hoping for a future in which our young controllable talent gives us an advantage. To me Chavis, Arauz and Beni could go. Dalbec would be hard to lose but with Casas in the wings still a thought. We could use another outfielder, whether from trade, FA or from below. Still, we need to do something for pitching and that remains a priority. I like Cora's view that the team needs to play faster so believe they need players with that capability.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd much rather see Beni go than Duran. I'm hoping for a future in which our young controllable talent gives us an advantage. To me Chavis, Arauz and Beni could go. Dalbec would be hard to lose but with Casas in the wings still a thought. We could use another outfielder, whether from trade, FA or from below. Still, we need to do something for pitching and that remains a priority. I like Cora's view that the team needs to play faster so believe they need players with that capability.

 

According to recent quotes by scouts, Beni has no current trade value. It would be more worth it, to me, to hang onto him and see if his talents get rejuvenated under Cora.

 

Duran and Dalbec are good enough prospects to actually yield something decent coming back, perhaps players with more promise than the mediocre or injury-prone free agent targets in the Sox news. Duran is expendable because Jimenez may be as good or better as the Sox centerfielder of the near future. Dalbec is expendable because Casas is Boston's number one prospect. Dalbec is also redundant as a big whiffer, along with Chavis, Renfroe, and all the other 100+ K-men in the lineup.

 

We are the Sultans of Swing... and Miss.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec is also redundant as a big whiffer, along with Chavis, Renfroe, and all the other 100+ K-men in the lineup.

 

We are the Sultans of Swing... and Miss.

 

I don't know, I kind of liked Dalbec's .359 OBP in his first sample. He K's a lot but he'll take a walk, too. That can be a big difference-maker.