A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox announced Monday that infielder/outfielder Yairo Munoz has cleared waivers and been assigned outright to Triple-A Pawtucket.

[mvp 78]

Cool.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So,

 

JoJo left his home in Fresno, California

Bought some Arizona grass.

 

Arizona grass, the kind in the outfields, is crunchy. The hot sun bakes it to a texture that gives a diving defender rug burns similar to Astroturf. Of course, these are my subjective realities, from playing tournaments in Cactus League parks there last century (though temps back then were in the high-nineties, not the hundred-and-teens).

[moonslav59]

Arizona grass, the kind in the outfields, is crunchy. The hot sun bakes it to a texture that gives a diving defender rug burns similar to Astroturf. Of course, these are my subjective realities, from playing tournaments in Cactus League parks there last century (though temps back then were in the high-nineties, not the hundred-and-teens).

 

How about up in the Rocky Mountain highs?

[notin]

If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year.

 

Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings.

 

Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.

 

Ok, but the only person who thought Eovaldi was worth that much was Dombrowski. I've been complaining about that deal since before it was signed.

 

So how much is Gausman worth if Eovadl is overpaid...

[moonslav59]

Ok, but the only person who thought Eovaldi was worth that much was Dombrowski. I've been complaining about that deal since before it was signed.

 

So how much is Gausman worth if Eovadl is overpaid...

 

I remember hearing on the radio, here in Houston, that the Astros were in on Eovaldi "to the end," but they did not want to give the 4th year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, but the only person who thought Eovaldi was worth that much was Dombrowski. I've been complaining about that deal since before it was signed.

 

So how much is Gausman worth if Eovadl is overpaid...

 

A lot of people valued Eovaldi; I don't think the argument was whether he was that good, just whether his contract was. But a year later Wheeler's deal at $20M per instantly transformed Eovaldi's $17M per from risky overpay to fair-market going-rate for a good MLB starting pitcher. The real prize free agent pitcher from two years ago turned out to be Charlie Morton, who Nate outpitched in the '18 ALCS.

 

The Gausman QO -- in an extremely depressed market -- is the head-scratcher. Stats can be misleading, but it's at least notable that in Gausman's eight-year career on four different teams that he has never once had a winning season.

[Bellhorn04]

A lot of people valued Eovaldi; I don't think the argument was whether he was that good, just whether his contract was. But a year later Wheeler's deal at $20M per instantly transformed Eovaldi's $17M per from risky overpay to fair-market going-rate for a good MLB starting pitcher. The real prize free agent pitcher from two years ago turned out to be Charlie Morton, who Nate outpitched in the '18 ALCS.

 

The Gausman QO -- in an extremely depressed market -- is the head-scratcher. Stats can be misleading, but it's at least notable that in Gausman's eight-year career on four different teams that he has never once had a winning season.

 

W-L record is pretty far down on the list of stats people look at for pitchers now. It's so much a reflection of the teams you played on.

 

Jacob DeGrom won back to back CYA's, and deservedly so, with a COMBINED record of 21-17 for 2 seasons.

 

Gausman's peripherals suggest he's about a 3 WAR pitcher now. And 3 WAR on the free agent market has been worth over 20 million the last few seasons.

 

It's a fair point about the depressed market. However, it's only a one-year commitment, and he might be in great demand at the trade deadline.

[mvp 78]

W-L record is pretty far down on the list of stats people look at for pitchers now. It's so much a reflection of the teams you played on.

 

Jacob DeGrom won back to back CYA's, and deservedly so, with a COMBINED record of 21-17 for 2 seasons.

 

Gausman's peripherals suggest he's about a 3 WAR pitcher now. And 3 WAR on the free agent market has been worth over 20 million the last few seasons.

 

It's a fair point about the depressed market. However, it's only a one-year commitment, and he might be in great demand at the trade deadline.

 

I'm still saying it was either the tech bros or the purple bud. That's the only reason to give him a QO.

[oldtimer]

W-L record is pretty far down on the list of stats people look at for pitchers now. It's so much a reflection of the teams you played on.

 

Jacob DeGrom won back to back CYA's, and deservedly so, with a COMBINED record of 21-17 for 2 seasons.

 

Gausman's peripherals suggest he's about a 3 WAR pitcher now. And 3 WAR on the free agent market has been worth over 20 million the last few seasons.

 

It's a fair point about the depressed market. However, it's only a one-year commitment, and he might be in great demand at the trade deadline.

 

Maybe the COVID situation will depress the value applied to starting pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm still saying it was either the tech bros or the purple bud. That's the only reason to give him a QO.

 

And those are funny comments, but a little short on analytics.

[moonslav59]

GMs have shown they are willing to overpay for those one year deals.

[notin]

And those are funny comments, but a little short on analytics.

 

Well, short on good analytics, wnyway...

[moonslav59]

17 players to watch in Thursday's Rule 5 Draft (per CBS):

 

1. Lake Bachar, RHP, Padres

The last time we saw Bachar, he was nearing the 50-career appearance mark in Double-A. He's since turned 25 years old, and it's fair to say that he's big-league ready physically. Bachar is a good athlete with a solid arsenal that could allow him to latch on as a back-end starter over the long haul. He has plenty of bullpen experience as well, which is where he's likely to spend 2021.

 

2. Paul Campbell, RHP, Rays

Campbell has turned out to be a heck of a find by Tampa Bay area scout Joe Hastings. He was originally a 21st-round pick who suffered through three lean years at Clemson en route to a 7.85 ERA in 30 appearances (three of them starts). Now, Campbell is a legitimate back-end starter prospect thanks to an arsenal that teems with average or better offerings. There are some nits to pick here, of course, otherwise he wouldn't be available in the Rule 5 Draft. Campbell is on the smaller side, and he's never seen his strikeout rates align with his above-average spin rates. He also had some forearm issues earlier in the year. That might not make any difference, as the perverse truth about the Rule 5 process is that it's easier to retain the rights to an injured player.

 

3. Brett de Geus, RHP, Dodgers

As a general rule of thumb, there are worse ideas for rebuilding teams to embrace than picking up players deemed to be expendable by the league's most talented clubs. The Dodgers, for their part, have an embarrassment of riches, meaning that someone with big-league potential was going to be left exposed. To wit, de Geus is an interesting relief prospect whose velocity has improved since he moved to the bullpen on a permanent basis. In addition to the heat, he has a pair of usable secondary pitches, in a cutter and a curveball, and he issued just 13 walks over 60-plus frames split between two levels in 2019. De Geus hasn't yet pitched above High-A, but he seems certain to get plucked. He has a fair chance of sticking, too.

 

4./5. Danny Dopico, RHP, White Sox; Will Kincanon, RHP, White Sox

We're pairing two White Sox relief prospects. Dopico counts a nasty splitter among a big-league-ready arsenal. The catch is that he walked more than five batters per nine innings during a 2019 stint in Double-A. Kincanon has a promising sinker-slider pairing, though he hasn't yet pitched above High-A despite turning 25 years old in October.

 

6./7. Parker Dunshee, RHP, Athletics; Brian Howard, RHP, Athletics

We're also pairing Dunshee with Howard because they have similar outlooks. Both are ready or near-ready starting prospects who attempt to make up for so-so stuff with deception. Dunshee has an abrupt arm stroke that can short-circuit timing. Howard, meanwhile, is built like a power forward (6-foot-9, 213 pounds) and gets nearly seven feet of extension on his release, creating an angle that hitters aren't accustomed to seeing. It's probable-to-likely that each ends up on the minor-league-depth side of the ledger, but there's just enough here to envision either going.

 

8. Omar Estevez, 2B, Dodgers

Estevez has primarily handled shortstop during his minor-league career. While he has soft hands and a tolerable arm, his lack of quick-twitch athleticism is likely to push him to the other side of the bag. (A bold team might even ask him to take up catching in a hail-mary attempt to improve his versatility.) The real draw with Estevez is his bat. He hit .291/.352/.431 in 336 Double-A plate appearances in 2019, and he won't turn 23 years old until February.

 

9. T.J. Friedl, OF, Reds

Friedl is what he is: a 25-year-old with more than 500 above-average plate appearances in Double-A who can be reasonably slotted in as a fifth outfielder. He'll walk a bit; he'll put the ball in play and hit for some average (especially against right-handed pitching); and he'll provide value on the basepaths and across the outfield. He isn't going to grow into more power, so there is a chance he falls on the wrong side of the Brett Gardner-Sam Fuld continuum -- meaning the opposition force-feeds him strikes because he can't punish mistakes. That risk is easier to stomach when one realizes this life is but a pile of beans on the roadmap to eternity.

 

10. Ever Moya, LHP, Rockies

The least experienced player on the list, Moya has appeared in just 23 games on American soil. (He spent his first three seasons in pro ball toiling in the Dominican Summer League.) Moya is on the radar because he's a 6-foot-5 left-hander with a 93 mph fastball and an approaching 22nd birthday. He needs to develop his breaking ball and his command, but there's high-leverage upside here if a team is willing to play the long game, a la the Blue Jays and Elvis Luciano.

 

11. Packy Naughton, LHP, Angels

The Angels liked Naughton enough to acquire him from the Reds as part of the Brian Goodwin trade, just not enough to put him on the 40-player roster. That's fair. Naughton's stuff makes Ryan Yarbrough's look like Clayton Kershaw's; he has one pitch (a plus changeup) that grades as better than fringe; otherwise, he gets by on deception, location, and gumption. The upside with this kind of profile is limited, but not every pick in the Rule 5 is about reward maximization; sometimes, it's enough to take a big-league ready utility arm -- even if his name and fondness for legerdemain grants him a greater upside as a street magician than as a starting pitcher.

 

12. David Parkinson, LHP, Phillies

Parkinson is a well-built left-hander who struck out a batter per inning in 22 starts at the Double-A level in 2019. His appeal here is as a reliever. Parkinson has a pair of solid secondaries, in his changeup and curveball, and could in theory see his velocity tick up in spurts. He's not likely to become more than a middle-relief type, but he might be worth the look.

 

13. Riley Pint, RHP, Rockies

Pint is the closest thing this class has to a pig in a poke. He has a recognizable name (the byproduct of being drafted fourth overall in 2016) as well as big-time stuff and late-inning potential. "Potential" is a spectrum and not a binary, however, and the chances of Pint reaching his ceiling appear remote. He had 55 combined walks, hit batsmen, and wild pitches in 17 2/3 innings in 2019, or more than one command-related oopsie per recorded out. Pint isn't able to repeat his release point, and his delivery imparts some nasty torque on his head that causes his neck to twist in a fashion previously imagined only by William Peter Blatty. He's almost certainly more than a few weeks with a different organization away from putting things together.

 

14. Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, Astros

Rivera didn't sign until he was 19 years old, making him ancient by international amateur free-agent standards. More than four years later, he's yet to throw a pitch above A-ball. Nevertheless, his arm strength and his multi-inning capacity make him a solid bet to go early (industry speculation has connected him to the Orioles, whose executives are familiar with him from their shared days in Houston). Rivera can chuck his fastball into the 100s, and he complements the heat with a promising splitter and a slider. The Astros used him in a tandem role in 2019: while only 11 of his 18 appearances were "starts," he worked at least three innings in all but one of them. He's probably not a legitimate starting candidate -- his extremely long arm action could lead to platoon and command issues -- yet a team who believes in his promise as a seventh-inning type could use him in a mop-up role for the duration of the 2021 season.

 

15. Trevor Stephan, RHP, Yankees

Stephan has been on the radar since he was drafted in the third round in 2017. The Yankees have allowed him to develop as a starter, but he seems like a good candidate to join another team's bullpen and contribute either in a traditional role or as a multi-inning type. Stephan's mechanics are deceptive, as he combines crossfire action with a low and deep release point. He also has two above-average offerings: a high-spin fastball that plays up in the zone and a sweeping slider. His changeup and his command have lagged, stalling his starting career, though it's possible a selecting team could afford him another crack at the rotation down the road.

 

16. Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Yankees

An 18th-round find, Whitlock had already achieved success in Double-A before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in July 2019. He has a big frame and the making of a starter's arsenal, as both his fastball and slider are average or better offerings. (His changeup has the potential to be as well.) It's unclear if and/or how the pandemic impacted Whitlock's recovery, but he seems like a fair bet to come off the board, perhaps within the top 10, with an eye on him turning into a back-end starter.

 

17. Tyler Zombro, RHP, Rays

The Rays seem as taken with vertical and horizontal approach angles as any organization in the league. A team wanting in on that sweet, sweet deceptive action could do worse than snatching up Zombro, a lower-slot right-hander who relies on a low-90s sinker and a slider. He seems unlikely to develop into more than a middle-relief type, at best, but he has a track record of success and he appears to be a total pitching nerd, which is always a plus.

[moonslav59]

Assuming Pedroia will not be on the 40 man roster come opening day, we have 37 players in total, as of now.

 

23 No chance of being DFA'd:

Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Sale, D Hern, Vazquez, Dalbec, ERod, Houck, Mata, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Barnes, Seabold, Groome, JD Martinez, Brasier, Arroyo, Potts, Chavis, Rosario, Beni, Taylor

 

RED= No Options

10 Bubble (maybe traded):

Wong, Mazza, Bazardo, Brewer, Valdez, Chatham, Arauz, Payamps, Grullon, Plawecki

 

4 Likely to be DFA'd (or traded assuming anybody will give something for them):

Brice, Springs, Wilson, Walden

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

W-L record is pretty far down on the list of stats people look at for pitchers now. It's so much a reflection of the teams you played on.

 

Jacob DeGrom won back to back CYA's, and deservedly so, with a COMBINED record of 21-17 for 2 seasons.

 

Gausman's peripherals suggest he's about a 3 WAR pitcher now. And 3 WAR on the free agent market has been worth over 20 million the last few seasons.

 

It's a fair point about the depressed market. However, it's only a one-year commitment, and he might be in great demand at the trade deadline.

 

That's why I conceded stats can be misleading. I'd also argue the reverse; that winning teams are often the reflection of their best starting pitchers.

 

I've said in the past, anyone who plays long enough knows a pitcher or two with a seeming knack for being able to "nail down a win" in ways better than others with similar talent. Now, whether that's just a matter of harnessing stuff, finding the zone or painting the black, I'm sure there are graphs and charts in some analytics department to rank such virtues.

 

Some clubs nowadays won't let a starter go the required five to even get a W... though that qualification is in serious need of revamping in this day of openers and bulky roles. But I do remember a few times Francona yanking a distracted Buchholz with a big lead in the 5th; I assumed Tito was punishing Buch for punishing the team with his lack of focus.

[mvp 78]

Assuming Pedroia will not be on the 40 man roster come opening day, we have 37 players in total, as of now.

 

23 No chance of being DFA'd:

Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Sale, D Hern, Vazquez, Dalbec, ERod, Houck, Mata, Pivetta, Eovaldi, Barnes, Seabold, Groome, JD Martinez, Brasier, Arroyo, Potts, Chavis, Rosario, Beni, Taylor

 

RED= No Options

10 Bubble (maybe traded):

Wong, Mazza, Bazardo, Brewer, Valdez, Chatham, Arauz, Payamps, Grullon, Plawecki

 

4 Likely to be DFA'd (or traded assuming anybody will give something for them):

Brice, Springs, Wilson, Walden

 

I don't think Brice gets DFA'd. Otherwise, why tender him a contract?

[Bellhorn04]

That's why I conceded stats can be misleading. I'd also argue the reverse; that winning teams are often the reflection of their best starting pitchers.

 

I've said in the past, anyone who plays long enough knows a pitcher or two with a seeming knack for being able to "nail down a win" in ways better than others with similar talent. Now, whether that's just a matter of harnessing stuff, finding the zone or painting the black, I'm sure there are graphs and charts in some analytics department to rank such virtues.

 

I've still got some old school in me too. But I've come to realize that what the new schoolers say about W-L records is mostly true.

 

Jacob DeGrom is a pretty good Exhibit A for it right now.

 

Felix Hernandez was too, when he was King.

 

Or if you want to go historical, just look at Blyleven and Ryan vs. Andy Pettitte.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Brice gets DFA'd. Otherwise, why tender him a contract?

 

He was tendered a minimum contract ($870K). It's not like we lose a whole lot, if we DFA him, and nobody claims him for a ML roster slot.

 

I could certainly be wrong. Maybe Bloom sees something I'm missing. There are 3-5 players on my "bubble" list of 10 players that are pretty close to him, so he could certainly be on the 40 man roster come opening day.

 

The bottom 10-12 players are pretty interchangeable.

 

We will likely keep at least 2 from Wong, Plawecki and Grullon. (If we trade Vaz, we'll keep all 3.)

 

We will probably keep at least 2-3 from Brewer, Mazza, Bazardo & Valdez.

 

If we don't sign an OF'er or two, we will likely keep Wilson.

 

I think we trade Chatham or Arauz to make room for an addition.

 

I see Springs and Walden as obvious casualties, but I was wrong on Brice, so who knows.

Edited December 8, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

He was tendered a minimum contract ($870K). It's not like we lose a whole lot, if we DFA him, and nobody claims him for a ML roster slot.

 

I could certainly be wrong. Maybe Bloom sees something I'm missing. There are 3-5 players on my "bubble" list of 10 players that are pretty close to him, so he could certainly be on the 40 man roster come opening day.

 

The bottom 10-12 players are pretty interchangeable.

 

We will likely keep at least 2 from Wong, Plawecki and Grullon. (If we trade Vaz, we'll keep all 3.)

 

We will probably keep at least 2-3 from Brewer, Mazza, Bazardo & Valdez.

 

If we don't sign an OF'er or two, we will likely keep Wilson.

 

I think we trade Chatham or Arauz to make room for an addition.

 

I see Springs and Walden as obvious casualties, but I was wrong on Brice, so who knows.

 

Last offseason, Weber kept sneaking through. There's been a lot of smoke from the media that the Sox like Brice. I just think they keep him around until the end of Spring Training and maybe DFA him then, but I think there's always someone else they can dump if they think Brice's swing and miss potential is worth holding on to.

[notin]

Last offseason, Weber kept sneaking through. There's been a lot of smoke from the media that the Sox like Brice. I just think they keep him around until the end of Spring Training and maybe DFA him then, but I think there's always someone else they can dump if they think Brice's swing and miss potential is worth holding on to.

 

It's all smoke. No one likes Brice. Not even Mrs. Brice...

[moonslav59]

Last offseason, Weber kept sneaking through. There's been a lot of smoke from the media that the Sox like Brice. I just think they keep him around until the end of Spring Training and maybe DFA him then, but I think there's always someone else they can dump if they think Brice's swing and miss potential is worth holding on to.

 

Part of the decision making is based on who they think they can sneak through waivers, which normally you'd think is based on skill level and value, but there are other factors, like age, options remaining, years of team control and positional needs.

 

I would think that because Brice is out of options, he'd clear waivers. Most teams are protecting their 40 man roster slots, right now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I've still got some old school in me too. But I've come to realize that what the new schoolers say about W-L records is mostly true.

 

Jacob DeGrom is a pretty good Exhibit A for it right now.

 

Felix Hernandez was too, when he was King.

 

Or if you want to go historical, just look at Blyleven and Ryan vs. Andy Pettitte.

 

I mostly agree, but the old school thinking that pitching is 75% of the game hasn't really changed (though the way MLB teams now use pitchers, and how they pitch, is why the games are 75% longer). When Ryan threw no-hitters for last place clubs, it didn't matter how bad the team was around him. There are also guys who could win both 1-0 shutouts and then pitch to contact to win slugfests (when they intentionally rely on their defense to defend, rather than strain their own arms).

 

Do contenders need "winning" pitchers to contend and win? It's unlikely that a 90-win team could parlay, say, a staff of 30 different 3-game winners. But here are my favorite W-L stats in history... presenting the 2001 World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks (regular season and postseason records combined):

 

Schilling and Johnson combined: 52-13

All others on the club combined: 51-63

[Bellhorn04]

It's all smoke. No one likes Brice. Not even Mrs. Brice...

 

She calls him fungible when she gets mad at him.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Bellhorn04

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's all smoke. No one likes Brice. Not even Mrs. Brice...

 

... and that's why Orlando Cabrera traded her.

[dgalehouse]

I don't think you can just discredit a pitcher's won / lost record. ( Obviously , there are exceptions to this ) The name of the game is still winning or losing. So a pitcher's wins and losses are still important. Same thing with saves and blown saves. They should not be looked at in a vacuum however. Look at them in conjunction with other stats , most notably ERA. No stat is going to be perfect.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think you can just discredit a pitcher's won / lost record. ( Obviously , there are exceptions to this ) The name of the game is still winning or losing. So a pitcher's wins and losses are still important. Same thing with saves and blown saves. They should not be looked at in a vacuum however.

 

A pitcher's wins and losses should be looked at in a vacuum cleaner.

[moonslav59]

I mostly agree, but the old school thinking that pitching is 75% of the game hasn't really changed (though the way MLB teams now use pitchers, and how they pitch, is why the games are 75% longer). When Ryan threw no-hitters for last place clubs, it didn't matter how bad the team was around him. There are also guys who could win both 1-0 shutouts and then pitch to contact to win slugfests (when they intentionally rely on their defense to defend, rather than strain their own arms).

 

Do contenders need "winning" pitchers to contend and win? It's unlikely that a 90-win team could parlay, say, a staff of 30 different 3-game winners. But here are my favorite W-L stats in history... presenting the 2001 World Champion Arizona Diamondbacks (regular season and postseason records combined):

 

Schilling and Johnson combined: 52-13

All others on the club combined: 51-63

 

Then, there is always the exception that is found: the 2015 National Championship Kansas City Royals:

 

SP (listed by most GS'd)

 

33 Volquez 13-9 3.55

28 Ventura 13-8 4.08

24 Guthrie 8-8 5.95

24 Duffy 7-8 4.08

18 Young 11-6 3.06

13 Cueto 4-7 4.76

 

Team SP'er 65-53/ ERA 4.34

 

[moonslav59]

The famous 2004 Sox who had just 5 GS'd by anyone beyond their top 5 starters.

 

Record in GS'd:

25-7 Schilling

19-14 Pedro

18-15 Lowe

17-12 Arroyo

16-14 Wakfield

 

All 5 starters had team winning records in their starts.

 

In those 5 starts from others, the team went 2-3.

[harmony]

The famous 2004 Sox who had just 5 GS'd by anyone beyond their top 5 starters.

 

Record in GS'd:

25-7 Schilling

19-14 Pedro

18-15 Lowe

17-12 Arroyo

16-14 Wakfield

 

All 5 starters had team winning records in their starts.

 

In those 5 starts from others, the team went 2-3.

A year earlier the 2003 Seattle Mariners had a five-man rotation that started all 162 games:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2003.shtml

 

That year the Mariners won 93 games but missed the postseason for the second straight year (a streak that now is up to 19 seasons).