A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

They'll bring us suffering, too. That's part of the deal.

Great point.

[moonslav59]

The truth teller!

 

I always appreciate your medical input.

 

 

I do, too, but he is over-blowing the loss of velo point. I've brought this up several times, but he keeps making the same misleading point.

 

Yes, his velo is down, slightly from 2015 and 2017, and maybe a little more than slightly from 2018, but it is nearly identical to 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016- all pretty amazing years.

 

See for yourself:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2012&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

He's already proven he can pitch well with 1-2 less MPH on his fastball. His highest Velo year was 2018, but even then, he had several games at or below his 2019 numbers. His overall average dipped from about 95 mph to 94 mph, and we're acting like it's the end of the world.

 

[moonslav59]

According to cots and AVV numbers:

$millions

25 Sale

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

16 Price

14 Pedey

6.3 Perez (opt accepted)

5.0 Beni

4.4 Vaz

[130 Guaranteed Total]

15 Player Benefits

2.3 minor league 40 man roster

[147M Running Total]

 

It's all about the arbs and tender vs non tenders:

ARB Player ($2020 unadjusted salary) Arb year/Total Arbs

ERod ($8.3M) 4/4 (injury- non tender?)

Barnes ($3.1) 3/3 (trade?)

Peraza ($2.9) 3/4 (non tender?)

Godley (min) 2/3 (non tender?)

Devers (692K) 1/3

Plawecki (900K) 3/4

Pivetta (600K) 1/3

Brasier (584K) 1/3

Covey (700K) 1/3 (non tender?)

Brice (573K) 1/3 (non tender?)

(All others are pre-arb)

 

The ERod case is the hardest to call. If he goes to arb, he may make $6-9M- I'm no expert on this.

Devers has his first arb, and year one arbs are usually not that much- maybe $5-8M?

Barnes may be trades, but it's his last arb, so he may make $4-6M?

Plawecki had a good (short) year as a back-up. It's year 3 arb but not his last: $1.2-2M?

Brasier's first arb: $1-1.5M?

Pivetta's first arb: $1-1.5M?

 

With ERod, I'm guessing $20-25M.

Without ERod: $12-18M

 

+$8M for the 9-10 ML players that fill out the roster, but don't forget, with every FA we sign, we also subtract one player making about $800K. If we sign 9 FAs, we can subtract the $8M I added here.

 

$155M + 22M= $177M w ERod

$155M + 15M= $170M w/o ERod

 

Subtract from $210M Luxury Tax Limit and we have $33-40M to spend.

 

 

Updated

[jacksonianmarch]

That is a theoretical number because, with the reset, the sox can go up to $250 mil without pushing a pick back. I just doubt you go past it. This is a process. You started with a bad team, a bad farm, and a bad payroll. If the sox try and be competitive in 2021, they will screw up the process, which I sincerely hope they do

[mvp 78]

This team was not bad in 2019.

[moonslav59]

This team was not bad in 2019.

 

No, but 3 losses from .500 with that roster was a major disappointment, regardless of the injuries.

[notin]

No, but 3 losses from .500 with that roster was a major disappointment, regardless of the injuries.

 

They were disappointing, which can be worse than being flat out bad in some cases...

[moonslav59]

They were disappointing, which can be worse than being flat out bad in some cases...

 

Agreed. It was, however, the season that decided the rebuild was upon us, and the cliff was to begin.

[Thunder]

This team was not bad in 2019.

 

If you ain't first you're last

[notin]

If you ain't first you're last

 

Ummmm.... no

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. It was, however, the season that decided the rebuild was upon us, and the cliff was to begin.

 

The cliff was mostly about the timing of our contracts.

[mvp 78]

No, but 3 losses from .500 with that roster was a major disappointment, regardless of the injuries.

 

Is .500 "bad" or "average"?

[notin]

The cliff was mostly about the timing of our contracts.

 

And also about the lack of replacements in the closer end of the prospect pipeline...

[moonslav59]

The cliff was mostly about the timing of our contracts.

 

Yes, and the choice on when to re-set.

 

Had we done well in 2019, we may not have traded Betts & Price to re-set, so soon.

[moonslav59]

Is .500 "bad" or "average"?

 

For us and that team on paper, "bad," but it is average.

 

I admitted I wrongly called 2019 the start of the cliff. I do think the disappointing 2019 season set things in motion that may have waited another year or two had we done well.

 

We went into the 2019 season with high hopes, much like we did in 2014.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, and the choice on when to re-set.

 

Had we done well in 2019, we may not have traded Betts & Price to re-set, so soon.

 

Or we may have anyway. 2020 was Tax Year 3 whether we did well in 2019 or not.

[moonslav59]

Or we may have anyway. 2020 was Tax Year 3 whether we did well in 2019 or not.

 

Yes, and with Mookie having just one year left, had we kpet him and reset in 2021, we'd have gotten nothing for Betts but a comp pick.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Betts deal was genius. Price opts out, so his status becomes his last 2 yrs of his contract only and on the hook for half. Betts would be an FA right now if he stayed on the Sox. They’d have gotten a comp pick only. Instead, you’ve got a RFer who will be starting for the next four years for you and be installed atop or in the middle of your order. You got a versatile C-CIF-COF guy with power in Wong. And you got your top prospect currently in Downs. It was a steal for Bloom

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Betts deal was genius. Price opts out, so his status becomes his last 2 yrs of his contract only and on the hook for half. Betts would be an FA right now if he stayed on the Sox. They’d have gotten a comp pick only. Instead, you’ve got a RFer who will be starting for the next four years for you and be installed atop or in the middle of your order. You got a versatile C-CIF-COF guy with power in Wong. And you got your top prospect currently in Downs. It was a steal for Bloom

 

It remains to be seen who did the stealing. If the Dodgers steal a few rings with Mookie as their leader, and if Wong and Jeter don't blossom -- nor the prospects they're eventually flipped for...

 

Let's just agree Boston got the most it could for a Hall of Famer in a deal that had to include escaping from Price's looming no-trade clause (just imagine DP endearing himself to an already diminishing fanbase while finishing out his career in last place). No one knows for sure if a potential comp pick for Betts leaving wouldn't be better or worse than either of two players who have yet to make the majors... or if Bloom could have coaxed an arm out of Friedman if Price wasn't part of the equation.

 

At least the Sox got a younger starting outfielder and hustling performer; Verdugo was a guy I insisted on getting in any swap, despite some posters convinced it would never happen. BTW, the older alternative that others suggested -- AJ Pollock -- tied Betts as LA's home run leader (16 each), and his OPS bested Verdugo. AJ is also 32 and making 15 Mil, while AV is 24 and making around MLB minimum...

[Nick]

The Betts deal was genius. Price opts out, so his status becomes his last 2 yrs of his contract only and on the hook for half. Betts would be an FA right now if he stayed on the Sox. They’d have gotten a comp pick only. Instead, you’ve got a RFer who will be starting for the next four years for you and be installed atop or in the middle of your order. You got a versatile C-CIF-COF guy with power in Wong. And you got your top prospect currently in Downs. It was a steal for Bloom

 

Well thank you....That's the type of deal that will keep the pipeline full, eventually

[mvp 78]

It remains to be seen who did the stealing. If the Dodgers steal a few rings with Mookie as their leader, and if Wong and Jeter don't blossom -- nor the prospects they're eventually flipped for...

 

Let's just agree Boston got the most it could for a Hall of Famer in a deal that had to include escaping from Price's looming no-trade clause (just imagine DP endearing himself to an already diminishing fanbase while finishing out his career in last place). No one knows for sure if a potential comp pick for Betts leaving wouldn't be better or worse than either of two players who have yet to make the majors... or if Bloom could have coaxed an arm out of Friedman if Price wasn't part of the equation.

 

At least the Sox got a younger starting outfielder and hustling performer; Verdugo was a guy I insisted on getting in any swap, despite some posters convinced it would never happen. BTW, the older alternative that others suggested -- AJ Pollock -- tied Betts as LA's home run leader (16 each), and his OPS bested Verdugo. AJ is also 32 and making 15 Mil, while AV is 24 and making around MLB minimum...

 

It's really, 1 year of Betts plus the value of a QO pick versus the value of Verdugo through his arb years. I think Wong and Downs were just a bonus at that point.

[moonslav59]

It's really, 1 year of Betts plus the value of a QO pick versus the value of Verdugo through his arb years. I think Wong and Downs were just a bonus at that point.

 

It has to be viewed as a win for us. The shortened season made losing Betts more bearable.

 

Verdugo looks like a keeper.

 

Yes, Downs and Wong could be bonuses.

 

I know I have people that disagree, but dumping half of Price's contract will be a plus, too.

[mvp 78]

I know I have people that disagree, but dumping half of Price's contract will be a plus, too.

 

That just depends on how Bloom spends it.

[Bellhorn04]

I know I have people that disagree, but dumping half of Price's contract will be a plus, too.

 

It's all just guessing either way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

I know I have people that disagree, but dumping half of Price's contract will be a plus, too.

 

I have to believe the Boston brass already feels it is, from a PR standpoint; the summer was bad enough losing games and losing fans than to have to listen to a negative mouthpiece sparring with reporters and calling press conferences to disrespect franchise icons. Who knows what public comments would've slipped about old man Roenicke...

[moonslav59]

That just depends on how Bloom spends it.

 

...and how well or poorly Price does.

[moonslav59]

It's all just guessing either way.

 

Well, we saved a ton, this year. That's a known.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, we saved a ton, this year. That's a known.

 

Not really. Since he opted out he didn't get paid by either team.

[moonslav59]

Not really. Since he opted out he didn't get paid by either team.

 

We ended up not paying $16M out of the $48M. I'd say that makes the deal look better.

 

It might be better financially for LAD, but they missed having him play.

[Bellhorn04]

We ended up not paying $16M out of the $48M. I'd say that makes the deal look better.

 

It might be better financially for LAD, but they missed having him play.

 

But if we hadn't traded him, we still wouldn't have paid him. So trading him didn't save a nickel this year.