A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

Michael Chavis with a good right hook.

Back in short-season Class A nine years ago Rougned Odor started a brawl but missed on some right hooks:

 

 

I saw Odor play a few weeks later in Eugene, Oregon.

[Bellhorn04]

The worst that can happen is we cut Odor, and it's the same as paying $8M x 2 years towards Eovaldi's deal- like we are now paying half of Price's deal.

 

Yay, we could pay half of two guys' salaries to pitch for other teams instead of just one.

[notin]

Yay, we could pay half of two guys' salaries to pitch for other teams instead of just one.

 

Or in the case of Eovaldi, pay half his salary to not pitch for another team.

 

That’s more of a bargain than you realize....

[Bellhorn04]

Or in the case of Eovaldi, pay half his salary to not pitch for another team.

 

That’s more of a bargain than you realize....

 

Sure, it's impossible he could actually stay healthy. And any other pitcher we get in his place would be guaranteed to never miss a start.

[moonslav59]

Yay, we could pay half of two guys' salaries to pitch for other teams instead of just one.

 

With the $16M and & $8.5M "saved" by not paying Price & Eovaldi, we could just about get Bauer.

 

I'd trade price & Eovaldi for Bauer in a heartbeat- same cost.

[moonslav59]

Or in the case of Eovaldi, pay half his salary to not pitch for another team.

 

That’s more of a bargain than you realize....

 

Well said.

 

Look, I'd love to have a healthy Eovaldi for 30 starts or even 24 starts and a healthy post season, but I'm tired of broken down starters.

 

I loved Buch, but he drove to be like this.

[harmony]

Well said.

 

Look, I'd love to have a healthy Eovaldi for 30 starts or even 24 starts and a healthy post season, but I'm tired of broken down starters.

 

I loved Buch, but he drove to be like this.

Righhander Kevin Gausman made 31 starts in 2018, 31 appearances (including 17 starts) in 2019 and 12 appearances (including 10 starts) in 2020:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gausmke01.shtml

 

Gausman, who turns 30 in January, made 150 appearances (including 127 starts) in six seasons with the Baltimore Orioles of the AL East, posting an ERA of 4.22 and an ERA+ of 100.

 

Gausman and the Giants reportedly have mutual interest in Gausman's return to San Francisco. After a solid if shortened 2020 season, Gausman is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer (as is Mets righthander Marcus Stroman).

Edited October 9, 2020 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

With the $16M and & $8.5M "saved" by not paying Price & Eovaldi, we could just about get Bauer.

 

I'd trade price & Eovaldi for Bauer in a heartbeat- same cost.

 

Unless Bauer really is a kook, he'll be looking for $200 million at least.

[moonslav59]

Unless Bauer really is a kook, he'll be looking for $200 million at least.

 

I was talking per year. ($16+8.5=24.5).

 

Actual money saved was $48M Price and maybe $17M Eovaldi= $65M total.

[Bellhorn04]

I was talking per year. ($16+8.5=24.5).

 

Actual money saved was $48M Price and maybe $17M Eovaldi= $65M total.

 

Yes, you're saving $65 million. But it remains to be seen what they post in WAR. I realize most people would play the under, but it would only take about 9 total WAR from the 2 of them over 2 seasons to be worth $65 million.

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball Trade Values has Eovaldi's "AFV" at 22.4 million.

 

That indicates that if you unload Eovaldi for nothing in return except salary relief of 17.0 million, you've made a bad move, you've lost 5.4 million.

[Bellhorn04]

Well said.

 

Look, I'd love to have a healthy Eovaldi for 30 starts or even 24 starts and a healthy post season, but I'm tired of broken down starters.

 

I loved Buch, but he drove to be like this.

 

If you want durable, bring Porcello back.

[harmony]

Baseball Trade Values has Eovaldi's "AFV" at 22.4 million.

 

That indicates that if you unload Eovaldi for nothing in return except salary relief of 17.0 million, you've made a bad move, you've lost 5.4 million.

Nathan Eovaldi is owed $34 million over two years with an Adjusted Field Value of $22.4 million, leaving a deficit of $11.6 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8096/

 

The Eovaldi contract is under water.

 

The Red Sox will likely keep Eovaldi and hope the righthander makes 25 starts with an ERA+ between his Boston mark of 103 and his career mark of 96:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml

Edited October 9, 2020 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

Nathan Eovaldi is owed $34 million over two years with an Adjusted Field Value of $22.4 million, leaving a deficit of $11.6 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8096/

 

Just as I said, yes.

[notin]

Well said.

 

Look, I'd love to have a healthy Eovaldi for 30 starts or even 24 starts and a healthy post season, but I'm tired of broken down starters.

 

I loved Buch, but he drove to be like this.

 

I hope they move Eovaldi to the pen, where he could give 50-60 excellent IP to a pen that badly needs it.

 

A bullpen with Eovaldi, Barnes, Brasier and Darwinzon Hernandez as the top four options is not a bad start at all. Add in Taylor and Valdez(?) and a couple acquisitions and the bullpen could become a potential strength for this team (depending on the acquistions)...

[Kimmi]

I am not going to get into yet another discussion about WAR . But this points out a fundamental flaw in this contrived " stat ". Betts is one of the very best in the game . A future Hall of Famer . There is no comparison to Verdugo . Two wins better ? Balderdash . Balderdash , I say.

 

Well Verdugo had a pretty good season in his own right. No one is saying Verdugo is on the same level as Mookie, but he played well this season. About 2 wins better sounds right.

[harmony]

Just as I said, yes.

l

The salary relief is $34 million. Good move (that is unlikely to happen).

[moonslav59]

This deal was accepted by BTV:

 

Eovaldi+ Beni

to MIL

Cain (CF), Sutter (RP),Nottingham © & Vargas (SS).

 

Cain is still an excellent defender in CF. He's owed $35M/2 but the lux number is $16M x 2. Eovaldi+ Beni=$22M/yr. We save $6M a year and fill the CF slot, a RP'er slot and help the farm out a little.

 

The Brewers break even on actual money spent.

 

Maybe we could pry Hader, Williams or Peralta, instead of Suter, but Suter is pretty good.

[moonslav59]

Another one:

 

Vaz, Covey & Shawaryn

for

Kiermaier & Nick Anderson

 

(Anderson would be a major get. Kietmaier is a top rate defender who is owed $24M/2 but the lux number is just $9M x 2.)

[notin]

Another one:

 

Vaz, Covey & Shawaryn

for

Kiermaier & Nick Anderson

 

(Anderson would be a major get. Kietmaier is a top rate defender who is owed $24M/2 but the lux number is just $9M x 2.)

 

I really doubt Covey and Sharwyn need to be included or have any appeal to the Rays. They're both the definition of "Replacement Level".

 

The one deal that BTV accepts that I could see the Rays making is Vazquez straight up for Diego Castillo...

[moonslav59]

I really doubt Covey and Sharwyn need to be included or have any appeal to the Rays. They're both the definition of "Replacement Level".

 

The one deal that BTV accepts that I could see the Rays making is Vazquez straight up for Diego Castillo...

 

It accepted my deal without those 2 pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Here's a 3-way:

 

TB: Vazquez, Brasier

 

SD: Eovaldi, Gomez

 

BOS: N Anderson, Kiermaier, Mejia, Myers

Edited October 10, 2020 by moonslav59

[Behindenemylines]

Pitching! Pitching! Pitching! Both starters and bull pen arms needed.

[oldtimer]

The Rays took down the mighty Yankees. We match up position by position with the Rays with the exception of left field, second base and designated hitter. Our key difference is of course pitching.

 

So, concentrate on pitching, both starting and the BP. We may already have the minor league position players to patch up our holes and also look their first for pitching help. Look to FA contracts for one or two starters, a closer and BP improvements and we go into 2021 a much more competitive team. I expect the first major moves immediately after the WS and another round before the winter meetings. the 40 man roster will include major changes before the winter meetings.

[Bellhorn04]

l

The salary relief is $34 million. Good move (that is unlikely to happen).

 

No, the discussion was about another team picking up half of Eovaldi's salary. Please follow along.

[Bellhorn04]

The Eovaldi contract is under water.

 

That's actually a pretty dumb statement.

 

In 2020 Eovaldi had a 6.9 million value per FanGraphs, while making a pro-rated 6.3 million. So it was a net positive.

 

And he finished the season looking very healthy and sharp. 52 K's and only 7 walks in 2020.

[moonslav59]

That's actually a pretty dumb statement.

 

In 2020 Eovaldi had a 6.9 million value per FanGraphs, while making a pro-rated 6.3 million. So it was a net positive.

 

And he finished the season looking very healthy and sharp. 52 K's and only 7 walks in 2020.

 

Would any GM sign Eovaldi for $34M/2, this winter?

[harmony]

That's actually a pretty dumb statement.

 

In 2020 Eovaldi had a 6.9 million value per FanGraphs, while making a pro-rated 6.3 million. So it was a net positive.

 

And he finished the season looking very healthy and sharp. 52 K's and only 7 walks in 2020.

No team is likely to take on the entire Nathan Eovaldi contract.

 

The pitching-thin Red Sox should probably keep Eovaldi and pray the injury-prone righthander sustains the success of the 2020 small sample.

[Bellhorn04]

Would any GM sign Eovaldi for $34M/2, this winter?

 

No idea. But that's not the argument. The argument is whether the Red Sox would be doing well if they traded him for nothing except 50% salary relief. You and notin said that would be a plus. BTV, which both you guys seem to value, says it would not. Pretty simple.

[Bellhorn04]

No team is likely to take on the entire Nathan Eovaldi contract.

 

And no one suggested they would. You just jumped in making incorrect assumptions.