A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[harmony]

Go read today's globe for the piece on him?

I regret that I do not have access to most Boston Globe content but I have access to a report posted Sunday:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2020/09/27/jackie-bradley-jr-red-sox-last-game

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Or financial, which is the most likely answer,,,

 

That's what I meant when I said economical; sorry, I'm still deranged from anythingoes posts.

 

...though Jackie's buddy, Marcus, did say the one thing that sucks about playing in LA is the taxes.

Edited October 1, 2020 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

I regret that I do not have access to most Boston Globe content but I have access to a report posted Sunday:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2020/09/27/jackie-bradley-jr-red-sox-last-game

 

“Ultimately I’m going to do what I feel is best for my family, and we’ll see how that plays out,” Bradley said.

 

That's all we got to go on then?

[jad]

That's what I meant when I said economical; sorry, I'm still deranged from anythingoes posts.

 

...though Jackie's buddy, Marcus, did say the one thing that sucks about playing in LA is the taxes.

 

Not sure why this matters. I worked in LA for almost 40 years making (I imagine) about 1% of what these guys make. NOT ONCE did I worry about "LA taxes," or think "Gee, maybe I could bank another $300 a year by moving to Milwaukee or Detroit."

[harmony]

Not sure why this matters. I worked in LA for almost 40 years making (I imagine) about 1% of what these guys make. NOT ONCE did I worry about "LA taxes," or think "Gee, maybe I could bank another $300 a year by moving to Milwaukee or Detroit."

I gave it only brief thought when I moved to Los Angeles from a state with no state income tax and a far lower cost of living.

[oldtimer]

Does it make any difference that this year Jackie Bradley Jr. was presumptively the only African American on a 40-man roster in a city with Boston's reputation?

 

Not sure there's a good way to discuss the sensitive topic of race.

 

Someone else pointed out that there are many players on the Red Sox who obviously have African Heritage although they may not have originated from the US. It's not worth making a list, but certainly guys like Devers, Bogaerts, Valdez and other joint JBJ in having African heritage. i don't understand the logic of ignoring these situations when discussing race. I want to offer JBJ because he is an excellent defensive CF, who is durable, is just 30 and is reaching maturity as a hitter. My contract offer would be around $6.6 mil for 2 years as I believe that is what he will be worth in the open market.

[notin]

Not sure why this matters. I worked in LA for almost 40 years making (I imagine) about 1% of what these guys make. NOT ONCE did I worry about "LA taxes," or think "Gee, maybe I could bank another $300 a year by moving to Milwaukee or Detroit."

 

1. Jackie won’t be in the same tax bracket as Mookie

 

2. No one goes to Detroit on their own unless paid HEAVILY to do so.

[harmony]

“Ultimately I’m going to do what I feel is best for my family, and we’ll see how that plays out,” Bradley said.

 

That's all we got to go on then?

That's why I asked the question: Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

[Bellhorn04]

That's why I asked the question: Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

 

It's a rhetorical question, because none of us have any idea.

[mvp 78]

That's why I asked the question: Those are salient points but how does Jackie Bradley Jr. perceive the situation?

 

“But I asked what does HE think about it!!!”

[moonslav59]

There is no way a bottom of the order bat is getting 10M AAV.

 

He won't even get $8M x 2 or $7M x 3.

[Bellhorn04]

He won't even get $8M x 2 or $7M x 3.

 

FanGraphs says he's worth more than that. But it says the same thing about Kevin Pillar. It's just not the player profile that's getting paid right now.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs says he's worth more than that. But it says the same thing about Kevin Pillar. It's just not the player profile that's getting paid right now.

 

That’s all I’m saying. Pillar is a good comp IMO. JBJ at 5-6 AAV is a real bargain.

[notin]

That’s all I’m saying. Pillar is a good comp IMO. JBJ at 5-6 AAV is a real bargain.

 

I think a 2 year $12mill deal works out for both sides. Really, the only question to me is, do they just go with Duran in CF and dedicate more money to pitching, both starting and bullpen...

[Bellhorn04]

I predict JBJ gets at least $15 million total.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think a 2 year $12mill deal works out for both sides. Really, the only question to me is, do they just go with Duran in CF and dedicate more money to pitching, both starting and bullpen...

 

Boston can't recruit enough pitching if you ask me. ERod, Sale, Pivetta, and Houck are all maybes, while Groome, Mata and Seabold are all hopefuls. Eovaldi is the "ace" and checks both columns. Starters who provide quality and quantity automatically make better bullpens, but the Sox need established strike-throwers there, too.

 

This point has been driven home -- as in my recliner -- watching the ghastly 2020 postseason, where the top offensive weapon in both leagues so far has been the bases-loaded walk...

[notin]

Boston can't recruit enough pitching if you ask me. ERod, Sale, Pivetta, and Houck are all maybes, while Groome, Mata and Seabold are all hopefuls. Eovaldi is the "ace" and checks both columns. Starters who provide quality and quantity automatically make better bullpens, but the Sox need established strike-throwers there, too.

 

This point has been driven home -- as in my recliner -- watching the ghastly 2020 postseason, where the top offensive weapon in both leagues so far has been the bases-loaded walk...

 

If you like pitchers who throw strikes, the top pitchers likely to be available in that same timeframe (2017-2020)

 

Rich Hill (1st in Zone % with 48.8%. Free agent. Obvious health risk)

Joe Musgrove (4th 47.6%. Pirates pitchers always seem to be available in their arb years)

Matt Harvey (6th 48.6%. Free agent. Other obvious concerns)

Rick Porcello (11th 46.6%. Free agent)

James Paxton (15th 46.2%. Free agent)

Danny Duffy (18th 45.9%. I have no doubt the Royals would move him if possible)

Mike Leake (22nd 45.8%. Free agent, but his pitch-to-contact soft tossing might make him the worst Fenway option available)

Reynaldo Lopez (25th. 45.7%. I think the White Sox move him in the right deal)

Jameson Taillon (25th. See Musgrove, Joe)

Jake Arrieta (32nd 45.3%. Free agent)

Dylan Bundy (39th. 45.0%. Rumored to be available last August. might still be)

Jeff Samardzija (41st 44.6%. Free agent.)

Michael Wacha (43rd. 44.5%. Free agent)

Corey Kuber (45th. 44.4%. Free agent)

Michael Fulmer (46th 44.2%. Likely available via trade, but has other concerns)

[harmony]

If you like pitchers who throw strikes, the top pitchers likely to be available in that same timeframe (2017-2020)

 

Rich Hill (1st in Zone % with 48.8%. Free agent. Obvious health risk)

Joe Musgrove (4th 47.6%. Pirates pitchers always seem to be available in their arb years)

Matt Harvey (6th 48.6%. Free agent. Other obvious concerns)

Rick Porcello (11th 46.6%. Free agent)

James Paxton (15th 46.2%. Free agent)

Danny Duffy (18th 45.9%. I have no doubt the Royals would move him if possible)

Mike Leake (22nd 45.8%. Free agent, but his pitch-to-contact soft tossing might make him the worst Fenway option available)

Reynaldo Lopez (25th. 45.7%. I think the White Sox move him in the right deal)

Jameson Taillon (25th. See Musgrove, Joe)

Jake Arrieta (32nd 45.3%. Free agent)

Dylan Bundy (39th. 45.0%. Rumored to be available last August. might still be)

Jeff Samardzija (41st 44.6%. Free agent.)

Michael Wacha (43rd. 44.5%. Free agent)

Corey Kuber (45th. 44.4%. Free agent)

Michael Fulmer (46th 44.2%. Likely available via trade, but has other concerns)

Mike Leake's last visit to Fenway Park went well against the highly touted eventual World Series champions:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201806230.shtml

[notin]

Mike Leake's last visit to Fenway Park went well against the highly touted eventual World Series champions:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201806230.shtml

 

Career ERA of 4.66 in 19 IP.

 

I actually like Leake, one of a very small number of pitchers with less than 10 career IP in the minors. (Even fast-tracker Chris Sale has 14.) But I think in Fenway for a full season would not be the best fit...

[moonslav59]

I predict JBJ gets at least $15 million total.

 

For 2 years?

 

I predict he gets $12M/2, but I would offer $8M/2 or $5M/1.

 

If the market for a guy like Pillar is $8M/2, I might go $9-11M/2 for JBJ.

 

$7.5M x 2 for someone who may very well be no help on offense and may also show age-related decline on defense is not what I think we need.

 

I'd rather spend more on pitching and cheaper but better or equal CF defense.

 

I do like the idea of a 1 or 2 year deal for CF.

Edited October 2, 2020 by moonslav59

[harmony]

Career ERA of 4.66 in 19 IP.

 

I actually like Leake, one of a very small number of pitchers with less than 10 career IP in the minors. (Even fast-tracker Chris Sale has 14.) But I think in Fenway for a full season would not be the best fit...

Mike Leake made his MLB debut with no minor league experience outside of the Arizona Fall League following the June 2009 draft.

[moonslav59]

18.2 H Bader

15.8 K Kiermaier (Trade?)

14.5 B Buxton

10.9 B Hamilton

10.6 L Cain

7.4 J Dyson

6.0 L Martin

4.7 M Margot

4.2 E Inciarte

3.9 JBJ

2.8 R Laureano

2.7 J Marisnik

2.6 S Deshields

2.1 M Taylor

 

19. G Springer 0.0

 

DRS /Innings

41/2401 L Cain

36/2142 Kiermaier

23/1842 Bader

23/1237 Buxton

20/2159 Hamilton

 

15. 8/1462 Springer

19. 2/2855 JBJ

 

 

[dgalehouse]

18.2 H Bader

15.8 K Kiermaier (Trade?)

14.5 B Buxton

10.9 B Hamilton

10.6 L Cain

7.4 J Dyson

6.0 L Martin

4.7 M Margot

4.2 E Inciarte

3.9 JBJ

2.8 R Laureano

2.7 J Marisnik

2.6 S Deshields

2.1 M Taylor

 

19. G Springer 0.0

 

DRS /Innings

41/2401 L Cain

36/2142 Kiermaier

23/1842 Bader

23/1237 Buxton

20/2159 Hamilton

 

15. 8/1462 Springer

19. 2/2855 JBJ

 

 

 

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

[jacksonianmarch]

Don't put it past the Cubs to decline Rizzo's option and let him fly. He would be a good sox target offensively

[Thunder]

Don't put it past the Cubs to decline Rizzo's option and let him fly. He would be a good sox target offensively

 

Last time we signed a guy we traded away as a prospect, it didn't end well

[moonslav59]

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

 

It's not the bible, butb when DRS and UZR/150 bot point to JBJ not being a top 10 defensive CF'er during a pretty long sample size of the down slope of his prime years, it leads me to think there are some equal or better CF'ers in MLB, right now. Several cost way less, although their offense has been even worse than JBJ's ups and long downs.

 

I love defense. I love watching great defense more than great offense. JBJ has been my favorite Sox player since before he was even a starter. Defense up the middle is not over rated in my book.

 

That being said, I have seen other CF'ers that look as good or better than JBJ is, right now in his career. The numbers back up my observations, for the most part, but they are not perfect indicators of value.

 

Now, to JBJ's offense. Just as I defended JBJ's offense during slumps, I'm not fooled into thinking he has suddenly become a consistently very good hitter due to this shortened system. Overall, he'snot very good, and he's not very bad, except in short sample sizes focusing ob his hot and cold streaks.

 

From 2018-2020, his OPS is about .742. Would I bet on the over on .742 the next two to three years? No. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting the under, but if I had to choose, I would. BTW, .742 ranks 21st out of 32 CF'ers with 900+ PAs. It's very close to:

 

.755 Cain

.730 A Jones

.727 Pillar

 

It also makes me wonder about guys like these, who are worse hitters but by how much? And, does their apparent better defense cancel out JBJ's better offense? Then, what about their contract cost and how the "saved money" could be spent elsewhere to offset any possible loss in CF by signing or trading for...

 

.688 Inciarte

.682 Margot

.669 Kiermaier

 

or even a guy like Marisnik.

 

I'm fine with bringing JBJ back. He'd still be my favorite Sox player, but the more we spend on CF, the less we have for other more pressing needs.

 

[moonslav59]

My projected Sox 40 Man Roster for Opening Day 2021:

 

60 Day IL: Pedroia, Sale, ERod

26 Man:

SP1 Eovaldi

SP2 ___FA___

SP3 Perez

SP4 ___FA___

SP5-6 Houck/Pivetta

 

RP1 ___FA___

RP2 Barnes

RP3 ___FA___

RP4 D Hern

RP5 Taylor

RP6 Brasier

RP7 Valdez

 

C Vazquez

C Plawecki

1B Dalbec

1B-2B Chavis

2B Arroyo

3B Devers

SS Bogaerts

UT Munoz

LF Benintendi

CF ___FA___

RF Verdugo

OF(1B/2B?) ___FA___

DH Martinez

 

14 Others in minors

Weber

Brewer

Mazza

1 from Covey, Walden, Godley orTapia

Chatham

Arauz

Grullon

(Rule 5 added)

Mata

Groome

Potts

Jeisson Rosario

Connor Seabold

Connor Wong

1 from Eduard Bazardo, Kutter Crawford, Chad De La Guerra, Roniel Raudes, Zach Schellinger, Alex Scherff or Jeremy Rivera

 

 

Trade, Non Tender or DFA:

Lin (out of options)

Peraza

Hart

Brice

Springs

Hall

Stock

Triggs

Kickham

Leyer

Wilson

Aybar

Puello

[notin]

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

 

It’s not done manually anymore. It’s software driven. (And it was NEVER one guy.).

 

Now errors. Those are literally “one guy’s opinion”...

[moonslav59]

It’s not done manually anymore. It’s software driven. (And it was NEVER one guy.).

 

Now errors. Those are literally “one guy’s opinion”...

 

The usual argument is "I know greatness when I see it," despite only watching others only a handful of times each.

[Kimmi]

We have had this discussion before . But to me , UZR is not science , it is just some anonymous guy watching the games and giving his opinion . Which , allegedly , is better than ours. I just don't put much stock in it .

 

{Sigh}