A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com has the Sox acquiring 1 starter (they do assume ERod pitches), 2 relievers, a CF, a 2b, and a LHH for the bench. Miller can fill that last role. Bloom has acquired him before...

 

I really would not mind Pillar & Miller, and save all remaining available resources for pitching and possible summer needs..

[oldtimer]

As out 4th OF'er, sure.

 

Just musing, but isn't the Castillo contract complete this year. Would he be 4th outfielder material. Maybe he's too well off to take a small contract/

[harmony]

Just musing, but isn't the Castillo contract complete this year. Would he be 4th outfielder material. Maybe he's too well off to take a small contract/

Rusney Castillo, who is 43 days older than 33-year-old J.D. Martinez, could bring a veteran presence.

 

Or not.

[dgalehouse]

Rusney Castillo, who is 43 days older than 33-year-old J.D. Martinez, could bring a veteran presence.

 

Or not.

I think a lot of folks are not aware of that. They still regard Castillo as a " young prospect."

[moonslav59]

I think a lot of folks are not aware of that. They still regard Castillo as a " young prospect."

 

He seemed like an old prospect when we signed him.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a lot of folks are not aware of that. They still regard Castillo as a " young prospect."

 

Rusney "Forever Young" Castillo.

[Kimmi]

The Sox are 26th in bullpen fWAR....

 

As I've said before, when you don't have the starting pitching, and the bullpen has to carry the load of the starting rotation as well as relief duties, the bullpen won't be nearly as effective or productive. Shore up the starting rotation. That's where the focus needs to be. I'm not saying that the bullpen doesn't need some reinforcement, but it doesn't need the complete or near complete overhaul that some are saying it needs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As I've said before, when you don't have the starting pitching, and the bullpen has to carry the load of the starting rotation as well as relief duties, the bullpen won't be nearly as effective or productive. Shore up the starting rotation. That's where the focus needs to be. I'm not saying that the bullpen doesn't need some reinforcement, but it doesn't need the complete or near complete overhaul that some are saying it needs.

 

The Red Sox need a closer who won't get cottonmouth when he tries to spit.

 

On a tanking note, that was pretty sly of Ron running Springs back out there in the 11th last night... was that a record, blowing two saves in the same extra innings?

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox need a closer who won't get cottonmouth when he tries to spit.

 

On a tanking note, that was pretty sly of Ron running Springs back out there in the 11th last night... was that a record, blowing two saves in the same extra innings?

 

I'm not a huge Roenicke fan, but I can't blame him for pitching decisions. I have no problem with adding a closer. I do have a problem with adding a closer for a large amount of money.

[notin]

Rusney Castillo, who is 43 days older than 33-year-old J.D. Martinez, could bring a veteran presence.

 

Or not.

 

I think the veteran presence needs to be an MLB veteran....

[moonslav59]

I'm not a huge Roenicke fan, but I can't blame him for pitching decisions. I have no problem with adding a closer. I do have a problem with adding a closer for a large amount of money.

 

Getting a mediocre closer won't help much. Trading for a very good, low cost closer will be costly.

 

Barnes has one year left and is pretty iffy as a closer.

 

What do suggest we do?

[moonslav59]

These are staggeringly horrific numbers:

 

SOX WHIP

 

SP'ers: 1.579

RP'ers: 1.649

 

ERA:

5.51 SP

5.94 RP

 

OPS Against

.871 SP

.846 RP

 

OPS Against by RP'ers with the most PAs Against:

.781 Valdez (132 PAs Against)

.687 Brasier (105)

.706 Barnes (102)

.973 Springs (99)

.579 Weber (86)

.884 Brice (77)

1.209 Walden (71)

.815 Osich (62)

.826 Stock (62)

.799 Covey (60)

.756 Brewer (51)

1.269 Hembree (40)

.861 Hall (40)

.861 Taylor (36)

.472 D Hern (34)

1.075 Kickham (34)

.683 Workman (31)

.519 Mazza (29)

1.621 Leyer (29)

 

SP'ers

.744 Perez (262)

.789 Eovaldi (199)

1.112 Godley (127)

.861 Mazza (107)

1.056 Weber (91)

1.005 Brewer (71)

1.128 Hart (54)

.371 Houck (40)

1.194 Kickham (33)

.556 Pivetta (21)

[moonslav59]

Team ERA: 5.75

OPS Against .857

WHIP 1.617

 

Most PAs Against (OPS Against)

262 Perez .744

199 Eovaldi .789

177 Weber .816

143 Godley 1.037

136 Mazza .790

132 Valdez .781

122 Brewer .900

110 Brasier .696

102 Barnes .706

99 Springs .973

83 Brice .852

71 Walden 1.209

67 Kickham 1.135

67 Hart 1.222

62 Stock .826

60 Covey.799

54 Hall 1.146

40 Houck .371

40 Hembree .786

36 Taylor .861

34 D Hern .472

34 Leyer 1.473

31 Workman .683

31 Triggs .894

21 Pivetta .556

10 Tapia .786

 

Based on these numbers and my own opinion, I'd think of giving only these pitchers serious consideration for being a meaningful part of the 2021 pitching staff:

 

(Sale & ERod)

Perez

Eovaldi

Weber

Mazza

Valdez

Brasier

Barnes

Houck

DHern

Taylor

Pivetta

 

Borderline:

Brewer

Walden

Covey

Tapia

 

Bye-bye:

Godley

Springs

Brice

Kickham

Hart

Stock

Hall

Lever

Triggs

 

[harmony]

The Red Sox need a closer who won't get cottonmouth when he tries to spit.

 

On a tanking note, that was pretty sly of Ron running Springs back out there in the 11th last night... was that a record, blowing two saves in the same extra innings?

Interesting issue:

 

[harmony]

I think the veteran presence needs to be an MLB veteran....

A sarcasm emoji was needed on my post.

[moonslav59]

Jeff Samardzija released.

 

Maybe worth a shot?

[notin]

Jeff Samardzija released.

 

Maybe worth a shot?

 

Nah.

 

And all SF did was kick start his free agency by a few weeks...

[Swiharts Ghost]

[php[/php]

Getting a mediocre closer won't help much. Trading for a very good, low cost closer will be costly.

 

Barnes has one year left and is pretty iffy as a closer.

 

What do suggest we do?

 

Tapia gets a shot I’d imagine before gas can Barnes who I’d jettison Sunday night

[moonslav59]

Nah.

 

And all SF did was kick start his free agency by a few weeks...

 

I thought he had a year left. My bad.

[moonslav59]

[php[/php]

 

Tapia gets a shot I’d imagine before gas can Barnes who I’d jettison Sunday night

 

Like in DFA?

 

Why? He has trade value, at worst.

 

Our pen sucks, but why get rid of one of the better ones?

 

I think he has like the 2nd or 3rd best pen WHIP and OPS against on the team, this year.

 

Edited September 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

Jeff Samardzija released.

 

Maybe worth a shot?

 

Yes, it would be. He was good last year and had his season wrecked by shoulder issues this year. He’s the perfect candidate for minor league contract with a kicker should he make the opening day roster

[Kimmi]

Getting a mediocre closer won't help much. Trading for a very good, low cost closer will be costly.

 

Barnes has one year left and is pretty iffy as a closer.

 

What do suggest we do?

 

That's what we have Bloom for. Honestly, I don't have the time to study the other teams closely enough to know what players are out there. I am not suggesting we get a mediocre closer. I am suggesting that a very good closer can be obtained without spending a lot of resources.

 

Also,

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

10h

After years of getting progressively nastier, Barnes had been in a pretty bad skid since the middle of last May. 52 IP, 4.82 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 33% K%, 16% BB%.

 

He's had a big turnaround the last 6 weeks though, which is welcome news for 2021 or a trade this winter.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's what we have Bloom for. Honestly, I don't have the time to study the other teams closely enough to know what players are out there. I am not suggesting we get a mediocre closer. I am suggesting that a very good closer can be obtained without spending a lot of resources.

 

Also,

 

Red Sox Stats

@redsoxstats

·

10h

After years of getting progressively nastier, Barnes had been in a pretty bad skid since the middle of last May. 52 IP, 4.82 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 33% K%, 16% BB%.

 

He's had a big turnaround the last 6 weeks though, which is welcome news for 2021 or a trade this winter.

 

I doubt Barnes garners much attention this offseason. He should see a raise on his $3.1 mil salary and to this point has been utterly terrible as a late inning reliever. The best bet Bloom has is to absolutely baby him next year, hope he really finds his groove and sell him at the peak of his value

[Kimmi]

I doubt Barnes garners much attention this offseason. He should see a raise on his $3.1 mil salary and to this point has been utterly terrible as a late inning reliever. The best bet Bloom has is to absolutely baby him next year, hope he really finds his groove and sell him at the peak of his value

 

I'm not looking to trade Barnes. He might not be our 9th inning guy, but he should be fine as a late inning reliever.

[oldtimer]

Based on the 2020 season, the Sox have some positives, some hopefuls and some question marks going into the off seasons. It seems to indicate progress is being made and the 2021 season could make us at least somewhat competitive and quite competitive if Bloom can pull off trades and FA acquisitions to fill some of our weaker areas. From what I have seen

 

Clear Positives :

Houck

Verdugo

 

Hopeful Signs:

Dalbec

Arroyo

 

Question Marks:

Beni

JDM

Munoz

 

Likely Team Additions From Prospects:

Mata

Duran

Downs

 

Hopeful Additions from FA:

JBJ (seems to be maturing as a hitter)

 

I am not addressing pitching to any extent here as Moon did a good job of that. Also we have our core consisting of Bogaerts, Devers, Vazquez and perhaps Plawicki.

 

I can see the team being young but good with Bloom concentrating on adding at least one good starter and several good relief pitchers and possibly a quality outfielder if JBJ can't be convinced to resign with the Sox. Lots of faces from this years will no longer be with the club and possibly we will have a new manager.

 

I look forward to Bloom's offseason moves to strengthen both the team and our prospect list. We do already have a PTBNL, which can be announced after today.

[moonslav59]

Based on the 2020 season, the Sox have some positives, some hopefuls and some question marks going into the off seasons. It seems to indicate progress is being made and the 2021 season could make us at least somewhat competitive and quite competitive if Bloom can pull off trades and FA acquisitions to fill some of our weaker areas. From what I have seen

 

Clear Positives :

Houck

Verdugo

 

Hopeful Signs:

Dalbec

Arroyo

 

Question Marks:

Beni

JDM

Munoz

 

Likely Team Additions From Prospects:

Mata

Duran

Downs

 

Hopeful Additions from FA:

JBJ (seems to be maturing as a hitter)

 

I am not addressing pitching to any extent here as Moon did a good job of that. Also we have our core consisting of Bogaerts, Devers, Vazquez and perhaps Plawicki.

 

I can see the team being young but good with Bloom concentrating on adding at least one good starter and several good relief pitchers and possibly a quality outfielder if JBJ can't be convinced to resign with the Sox. Lots of faces from this years will no longer be with the club and possibly we will have a new manager.

 

I look forward to Bloom's offseason moves to strengthen both the team and our prospect list. We do already have a PTBNL, which can be announced after today.

 

JBJ is so up and down, it's hard to determine he "has matured." He's post-prime. His defense has declined, too.

 

Let him walk.

 

I'm not sure we'll see Mata or Downs, next year. If we sign an OF'er or two, even Duran may not be called up until September.

 

Also, the sample sizes of Houck and Munoz are about the same. How can one be a "clear positive" while the other is a "question mark?"

[Bellhorn04]

Also, the sample sizes of Houck and Munoz are about the same. How can one be a "clear positive" while the other is a "question mark?"

 

The sample size for Houck is too small to guarantee anything. But he certainly qualifies as a more promising possibility than Munoz.

[notin]

Based on the 2020 season, the Sox have some positives, some hopefuls and some question marks going into the off seasons. It seems to indicate progress is being made and the 2021 season could make us at least somewhat competitive and quite competitive if Bloom can pull off trades and FA acquisitions to fill some of our weaker areas. From what I have seen

 

Clear Positives :

Houck

Verdugo

 

Hopeful Signs:

Dalbec

Arroyo

 

Question Marks:

Beni

JDM

Munoz

 

Likely Team Additions From Prospects:

Mata

Duran

Downs

 

Hopeful Additions from FA:

JBJ (seems to be maturing as a hitter)

 

I am not addressing pitching to any extent here as Moon did a good job of that. Also we have our core consisting of Bogaerts, Devers, Vazquez and perhaps Plawicki.

 

I can see the team being young but good with Bloom concentrating on adding at least one good starter and several good relief pitchers and possibly a quality outfielder if JBJ can't be convinced to resign with the Sox. Lots of faces from this years will no longer be with the club and possibly we will have a new manager.

 

I look forward to Bloom's offseason moves to strengthen both the team and our prospect list. We do already have a PTBNL, which can be announced after today.

 

Soxprospects.com lists the Sox making the following additions:

 

1 SP (but they count Erod as being active for the 2021 team, which is not a guarantee)

2 RP

1 2B

1 CF (they highlight Bradley)

1 LHH for the bench (And former Bloom acquisition Brad Miller is a perfect fit)

 

They include Arroyo an Munoz as bench players. Obviously, either or both could be economical solutions at 2B, and each with some risk.

 

Per Fangraphs, the Sox are 4th in MLB in E-F, which is ERA - FIP. And they have a number of pitchers with significantly worse ERAs than FIPs, iunclduing Mazza, Covey and Stockj. (Brice, too, but his FIP still sucks, unlike the other 3). So will this be a factor? Ther e are 3 ways to interpret this.

 

1. The Sox pitching might not be as bad, but a lot of them were victims of weak defensive play.

2. FIP is useless. (Which might be true, but won't matter if Bloom has faith in it.)

3. The sample size was just too small for this to matter.

 

If the Sox operate under the pretense of option 1, and they need to improve some defense, they might not be so quick to hand 2B over to Arroyo/Munoz, and they might be more likely to bring Bradley back, as his defensive metrics increased this year, possibly due to the Notin Theory from last year that they would with the departure of Betts. Or maybe for some other reason, although that his cumulative DRS went up in a significantly shorter season might be a good indicator...

[moonslav59]

The sample size for Houck is too small to guarantee anything. But he certainly qualifies as a more promising possibility than Munoz.

 

He had the both of them 2 categories away from each other.

 

I'm also not so sure about the "certainly more promising" statement, either, but he sure looked great in those 3 starts!

 

Also, Munoz had 555 career PAs in MLB. That's about a full season. While the .723 OPS is not all that impressive, for a 2Bman, it's not bad, especially when you factor in those PAs being the first of his career. (He hit .740 in AAA with 11 Hrs in just 363 ABs. He also had 55 XBHs in just 623 PAs at AA.)

 

Houck's minor league numbers are, perhaps, less impressive. He only had 25 IP at the AAA level (3.96 ERA and 1.320 WHIP) as almost an exclusive RP'er. In his 83 IP at AA, he was at 4.46 ERA/1.427 WHIP as a starter.

 

I'd have put them both in the "promising" category.

[Bellhorn04]

He had the both of them 2 categories away from each other.

 

I'm also not so sure about the "certainly more promising" statement, either, but he sure looked great in those 3 starts!

 

Also, Munoz had 555 career PAs in MLB. That's about a full season. While the .723 OPS is not all that impressive, for a 2Bman, it's not bad, especially when you factor in those PAs being the first of his career. (He hit .740 in AAA with 11 Hrs in just 363 ABs. He also had 55 XBHs in just 623 PAs at AA.)

 

Houck's minor league numbers are, perhaps, less impressive. He only had 25 IP at the AAA level (3.96 ERA and 1.320 WHIP) as almost an exclusive RP'er. In his 83 IP at AA, he was at 4.46 ERA/1.427 WHIP as a starter.

 

I'd have put them both in the "promising" category.

 

Yeah, I can't argue with any of that.