A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

I think this team is in a bad position going forward, but as this is MLB with insane levels of parity not seen I other sports, that can change quickly.

 

But really, for 2020, this team won 84 games last year with one good starter and a ramshackle bullpen. A lot of teams with no significant injuries won less.

 

I think they have a base, assuming a few key people stay healthy. And can be competitive in this year with the right moves. I’d prefer not dealing Betts, but I don’t think it’s a necessarily a white flag, either...

 

If we trade Betts for vets or ML ready prospects, then it not a 2020 "white flag."

 

While we had injuries last year, the Yanks had way more, so expecting us to pass them, next year, especially after they sign Cole or Stasburg is really a stretch. It's not impossible, but I'm leaning towards maximizing our turn-around by beginning sooner rather than later. Reset in 2020 and go all out for 2021 or 2022 more likely.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

If we trade Betts for vets or ML ready prospects, then it not a 2020 "white flag."

 

While we had injuries last year, the Yanks had way more, so expecting us to pass them, next year, especially after they sign Cole or Stasburg is really a stretch. It's not impossible, but I'm leaning towards maximizing our turn-around by beginning sooner rather than later. Reset in 2020 and go all out for 2021 or 2022 more likely.

 

 

 

Timing is everything. You've got a ton of money tied up for the next 3 seasons with only two players who may outperform the contract (JDM and XB). The Yanks are coming into their window and with a ton of money coming off the books after 2020, they can sustain the window a bit longer. If I were Bloom, I would be looking to try and beat the Yanks with a younger core once the Yanks core starts getting huge money (2023) and have to make some pretty rough decisions. The Yanks handled a ridiculous amount of injuries and still overwhelmed the sox by 19 games. If the Yanks were trying in September, it could have been 22+. Now the Yanks are healthy and poised to add a legit ace in front of a pretty talented rotation. They return their dominant pen. They return a healthier offense. The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us, and being a cheerleader isn't a good business strategy.

[moonslav59]

Timing is everything. You've got a ton of money tied up for the next 3 seasons with only two players who may outperform the contract (JDM and XB). The Yanks are coming into their window and with a ton of money coming off the books after 2020, they can sustain the window a bit longer. If I were Bloom, I would be looking to try and beat the Yanks with a younger core once the Yanks core starts getting huge money (2023) and have to make some pretty rough decisions. The Yanks handled a ridiculous amount of injuries and still overwhelmed the sox by 19 games. If the Yanks were trying in September, it could have been 22+. Now the Yanks are healthy and poised to add a legit ace in front of a pretty talented rotation. They return their dominant pen. They return a healthier offense. The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us, and being a cheerleader isn't a good business strategy.

 

Just 2 guys- Price and Eovaldi are a "ton" while two guys, JD and Bogey, are "only two guys."

 

Price and Eovaldi may give us half to 3/4 of their contract cost. It's even possible they earn their full cost- not likely but possible.

 

We also have Devers, Beni, Vaz, ERod and others earning way more than their costs.

 

We have a nice core.

[notin]

I love our offense.

 

It loves you, too. Except Chavis, whose been talkin’ a lotta smack behind your back...

[moonslav59]

Rule 5 Possibilities

 

https://thesportsdaily.com/2019/11/27/10-players-available-in-the-rule-5-draft-to-keep-an-eye-on/

 

Top prospects in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft

WWW.MLB.COM

---

On Wednesday, teams had to decide which of their prospects merited placement on 40-man rosters. Unprotected prospects are subject to the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings if they signed by age 18 and have completed five pro seasons, or if they signed at age 19 or older and

[jacksonianmarch]

Just 2 guys- Price and Eovaldi are a "ton" while two guys, JD and Bogey, are "only two guys."

 

Price and Eovaldi may give us half to 3/4 of their contract cost. It's even possible they earn their full cost- not likely but possible.

 

We also have Devers, Beni, Vaz, ERod and others earning way more than their costs.

 

We have a nice core.

 

On talent alone, your core is fine. The problem is, you have no money to spend. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are making $77 mil between them. Sale is an injury and effectiveness question, Price even more so, Eovaldi more so than him. You have a team right now that is already over the LT, which is a stated goal to get below. We are all expecting JBJ to get dealt. Right now the sox have holes at 2b, 1b, SP, and Closer/Relief ace. If JBJ goes to get under the lux tax, CF will be a need. Subtracting Betts doesn't help this equation either. Your farm has some guys who can help out in the 1b and 2b situation, but none are gonna shock the world, or at least none are expected to. Your staff the way it is really needs more like 6 or 7 starters and beyond your top 4, all other internal options suck ass. To prop this core up will take cash or prospects. The farm is dead right now. The FO has pulled the cash.

[moonslav59]

On talent alone, your core is fine. The problem is, you have no money to spend. Sale, Price and Eovaldi are making $77 mil between them. Sale is an injury and effectiveness question, Price even more so, Eovaldi more so than him. You have a team right now that is already over the LT, which is a stated goal to get below. We are all expecting JBJ to get dealt. Right now the sox have holes at 2b, 1b, SP, and Closer/Relief ace. If JBJ goes to get under the lux tax, CF will be a need. Subtracting Betts doesn't help this equation either. Your farm has some guys who can help out in the 1b and 2b situation, but none are gonna shock the world, or at least none are expected to. Your staff the way it is really needs more like 6 or 7 starters and beyond your top 4, all other internal options suck ass. To prop this core up will take cash or prospects. The farm is dead right now. The FO has pulled the cash.

 

I get the problem, but I find it interesting how you stated the financial issue. To me Sale is a push. We have 2 bad super big contracts (both could turn plus or close to even) and 2 good ones. It's not the end of the world.

 

We can win in 2020 without JBJ, and that is all we have to trade to reset.

 

We could trade some salary, like Price, and not get worse. We could use those saving to fill some key gaps with low cost deals.

 

It's not easy, and I know our odds don't look good for 2020, but there's still a sliver of hope.

[kenmeister]

 

It's not easy, and I know our odds don't look good for 2020, but there's still a sliver of hope.

 

Here's what I think has to go our way:

 

1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter.

2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out).

3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA

4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise.

5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference.

6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors.

7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

"The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us"

 

I think you may have reversed some of the teams in this sentence. The Yanks had unprecedented good luck last year finding has-beens (Maybin, 32) and never-weres (Tauchman 28, Urshela 27, Ford 26, German 26) to replace and virtually outperform injured regulars. After watching the '18 postseason, some might say Boston had ridiculous bad luck with injuries and down-years from 80% of its championship rotation.

 

You might counter argue that NY made its own luck because Cashman is a better GM than Dombrowski... but nobody was saying that a year ago. Instead, Red Sox detractors relied on the ole "Everything went right in '18" warning (which looked prophetic when key acquisitions and postseason heroes Pearce and Eovaldi both broke down early in '19).

 

As great as the Yankees' season was in '19, they are a team in flux and under pressure to win. There are issues on defense, and the rotation is a year older. The Yanks can sign Cole and Rendon, and Stanton can hit 50 HRs, but it's far from automatic they'll win 103 games again. The only time NY ever won more in the past half century was in the all-time '98 season.

[moonslav59]

1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter.

Check

2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out).

Check

3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA

80 starts, yes, they need to reach this but likely will not. They'd need better than 4.00 to get us another ring.

4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise.

If 3 happens at 3.50 ERA, we can do without a good 5th starter.

5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference.

We need repeats from Workman, Taylor & Walden, a return to form from Barnes, and only then we might need only 1 more decent arm. More likely, we need 2-3 more arms or DHern to shine.

6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors.

Very doubtful we get this without going way over the luxury tax line.

7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement.

He actually heats up on May 21st or 22nd- every year since 2016.

2017: .637 on May 20th, then went 2-5 and was at .650 by May 26th and .700 by May 28th. He was over .750 by June 1st and .800 by June 12th.

2018: .519 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .600 on May 31st, .650 by the end of July and .700 by the end of August.

2019: .443 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .500 in 2 days, .550 by May 28th, .600 the next day, .650 by June 13th and .700 by June 23rd.

 

Waiting until July would miss his hottest streaks.

[moonslav59]

"The sox would need to hope for another year of unprecedented bad luck for the Yanks and a year of ridiculous luck for the sox to overtake us"

 

I think you may have reversed some of the teams in this sentence. The Yanks had unprecedented good luck last year finding has-beens (Maybin, 32) and never-weres (Tauchman 28, Urshela 27, Ford 26, German 26) to replace and virtually outperform injured regulars. After watching the '18 postseason, some might say Boston had ridiculous bad luck with injuries and down-years from 80% of its championship rotation.

 

You might counter argue that NY made its own luck because Cashman is a better GM than Dombrowski... but nobody was saying that a year ago. Instead, Red Sox detractors relied on the ole "Everything went right in '18" warning (which looked prophetic when key acquisitions and postseason heroes Pearce and Eovaldi both broke down early in '19).

 

As great as the Yankees' season was in '19, they are a team in flux and under pressure to win. There are issues on defense, and the rotation is a year older. The Yanks can sign Cole and Rendon, and Stanton can hit 50 HRs, but it's far from automatic they'll win 103 games again. The only time NY ever won more in the past half century was in the all-time '98 season.

 

The Yanks have all those guys returning plus the replacements that did very well, last year. It's hard to spin that to a negative, but I commend your attempt.

 

They will be massive favorites after they sign Cole or Stasburg.

[kenmeister]

He actually heats up on May 21st or 22nd- every year since 2016.

2017: .637 on May 20th, then went 2-5 and was at .650 by May 26th and .700 by May 28th. He was over .750 by June 1st and .800 by June 12th.

2018: .519 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .600 on May 31st, .650 by the end of July and .700 by the end of August.

2019: .443 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .500 in 2 days, .550 by May 28th, .600 the next day, .650 by June 13th and .700 by June 23rd.

 

Waiting until July would miss his hottest streaks.

 

I stand corrected. In that case he takes his first at bat on May 19th.

[moonslav59]

I stand corrected. In that case he takes his first at bat on May 19th.

 

One wonders if JBJ could play just 1 game, then get red hot.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Yanks have all those guys returning plus the replacements that did very well, last year. It's hard to spin that to a negative, but I commend your attempt.

 

They will be massive favorites after they sign Cole or Stasburg.

 

I expect NY to be massive favorites, but I'm far from ready to concede the campaign based on one Red Sox season that lacked luster. Even after making some expected personnel changes, Boston will still bring back the majority of a roster that recently won and knows how to win the World Series. By my count, the Yankees have two: Gardner and Chapman.

 

I expect improved performances from players with youth on their side, like Benintendi, 25, and D. Hernandez, 23. I'm also optimistic about Eovaldi's potential, based on how hard he was throwing at the end of the year. A lot of posters are down on him right now, but I looked back at the thread when Boston signed him last winter and almost everyone here was positive about getting him back. He was the one free agent I really wanted locked up, a guy with Cy Young stuff on display the entire postseason.

 

I still hope to see a full year out of Eovaldi in a Sox uni, and hope he's not traded. In today's market for good starting pitchers, he's not overpaid at 17 million, and I'd like to see him get a chance to earn it. Put it this way, I like the chances of Nate bouncing back as much as Severino, who's lost key playoff starts three years in a row and has never made it past four innings in 6 of 8 postseason starts.

[moonslav59]

I expect NY to be massive favorites, but I'm far from ready to concede the campaign based on one Red Sox season that lacked luster. Even after making some expected personnel changes, Boston will still bring back the majority of a roster that recently won and knows how to win the World Series. By my count, the Yankees have two: Gardner and Chapman.

 

I expect improved performances from players with youth on their side, like Benintendi, 25, and D. Hernandez, 23. I'm also optimistic about Eovaldi's potential, based on how hard he was throwing at the end of the year. A lot of posters are down on him right now, but I looked back at the thread when Boston signed him last winter and almost everyone here was positive about getting him back. He was the one free agent I really wanted locked up, a guy with Cy Young stuff on display the entire postseason.

 

I still hope to see a full year out of Eovaldi in a Sox uni, and hope he's not traded. In today's market for good starting pitchers, he's not overpaid at 17 million, and I'd like to see him get a chance to earn it. Put it this way, I like the chances of Nate bouncing back as much as Severino, who's lost key playoff starts three years in a row and has never made it past four innings in 6 of 8 postseason starts.

 

Well, like you said, we only win when we least expect it, so I'm thinking our odds are long.

 

(See how I twisted that around on you?!?)

 

Seriously, to me, it comes down to the fact that we will have to rebuild at some point. One can argue, we can win in 2021, too, and just keep "going for it," but it will involve more spending.

 

I see your point, and I've not placed myself in either camp, yet, but I do think that if we decide to reset and rebuild before and during 2020, we can turn things around faster and create a stronger roster going forward than by putting it off a year and maybe getting nothing for Betts and others.

 

It's a tough call. I'm about 50-50 but leaning towards beginning the reset now, because I think the 2020 odds are too long to be worth sacrificing the time and quality or the pending rebuild.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I get it and I'm spoiled. But not from the rings, which any old baseball fan in any city who dedicates decades to his team deserves...

 

I just can't stomach the idea of the Sox ever acknowledging they're not going to try to contend. I've also been around long enough, as have many regulars here, to know that we can never predict a season based directly on the last one -- and I also know a lot of Yankee fans who totally agree.

[Bellhorn04]

I get it and I'm spoiled. But not from the rings, which any old baseball fan in any city who dedicates decades to his team deserves...

 

I just can't stomach the idea of the Sox ever acknowledging they're not going to try to contend. I've also been around long enough, as have many regulars here, to know that we can never predict a season based directly on the last one -- and I also know a lot of Yankee fans who totally agree.

 

This might be the perfect season to not contend, sad as it may be. Especially if the Yankees sign Cole as it appears they are going to do their utmost to do.

[moonslav59]

This might be the perfect season to not contend, sad as it may be. Especially if the Yankees sign Cole as it appears they are going to do their utmost to do.

 

Yes, it's sad, but sadder still might be a plan that keeps us non contending even longer than just 1-2 years.

[moonslav59]

I get it and I'm spoiled. But not from the rings, which any old baseball fan in any city who dedicates decades to his team deserves...

 

I just can't stomach the idea of the Sox ever acknowledging they're not going to try to contend. I've also been around long enough, as have many regulars here, to know that we can never predict a season based directly on the last one -- and I also know a lot of Yankee fans who totally agree.

 

I understand you feelings, but we'd still get to watch Devers & Bogey, DHern & ERod, Vaz & Dalbec...

[Tedballgame]

This might be the perfect season to not contend, sad as it may be. Especially if the Yankees sign Cole as it appears they are going to do their utmost to do.

They don't have to win the AL East in order to be a contender and/or World Series winner. Seems to me that the Skankees won the division in 2004. I don't see a world series ring on their fingers from that year.

[Swiharts Ghost]

This team is damn good as constituted.I would like to see a better power out put out of 2b and mentioned scooter Genette as a buy low candidate .I would also like more output from the Backup catcher and CF .I don’t know what to do about CF or Catcher ? Ideas ? I guess I’d like to see Porcellos spot in Rotation Be in house .I think this team wins 97 games this year .

[notin]

This might be the perfect season to not contend, sad as it may be. Especially if the Yankees sign Cole as it appears they are going to do their utmost to do.

 

Yeah I thought that way in 2002, after the AL Champion Yankees added Giambi. Then again in 2003, when they added Mussina. And again in 2004, when they added A-Rod.

 

And yes despite the star-studded spending-spree, we out-titled them during that stretch...

[moonslav59]

Yeah I thought that way in 2002, after the AL Champion Yankees added Giambi. Then again in 2003, when they added Mussina. And again in 2004, when they added A-Rod.

 

And yes despite the star-studded spending-spree, we out-titled them during that stretch...

 

We were at about 60-70% of their opening day payroll back in 2004 & 2005. The Yanks outspent us every year from 1999 to 2018.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

 

[notin]

This team is damn good as constituted.I would like to see a better power out put out of 2b and mentioned scooter Genette as a buy low candidate .I would also like more output from the Backup catcher and CF .I don’t know what to do about CF or Catcher ? Ideas ? I guess I’d like to see Porcellos spot in Rotation Be in house .I think this team wins 97 games this year .

 

Our in-house guys are not good. Brian Johnson, Mike Shawaryn and Hector Velasquez are the leading candidates.

 

If anything gets handled internally, it will probably be 2B (Chavis) and 1B (Dalbec). Or Lin at 2B and Chavis at 1B to start the year.

 

CF is wide open. And don't expect anything from a backup catcher except defense. If the backup catcher could hit, why is he a backup?

[notin]

We were at about 60-70% of their opening day payroll back in 2004 & 2005. The Yanks outspent us every year from 1999 to 2018.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

 

 

They went all-in on Cliff Lee one year, too. But he still wound up in Philadelphia...

[moonslav59]

Our in-house guys are not good. Brian Johnson, Mike Shawaryn and Hector Velasquez are the leading candidates.

 

If anything gets handled internally, it will probably be 2B (Chavis) and 1B (Dalbec). Or Lin at 2B and Chavis at 1B to start the year.

 

CF is wide open. And don't expect anything from a backup catcher except defense. If the backup catcher could hit, why is he a backup?

 

Is there no chance DHern is used as a starter?

 

You think Houck is not ML ready or not better than Velazquez?

[cp176]

I get it and I'm spoiled. But not from the rings, which any old baseball fan in any city who dedicates decades to his team deserves...

 

I just can't stomach the idea of the Sox ever acknowledging they're not going to try to contend. I've also been around long enough, as have many regulars here, to know that we can never predict a season based directly on the last one -- and I also know a lot of Yankee fans who totally agree.

 

Regardless of what our budget conscious folks think, I doubt seriously that this franchise will accept going in to a season thinking that it is ever ok feeling

that they won't be able to compete but it's all good because in a year or two we'll be back. Realistic or not, you better have hope. Sale says that there is no doubt that he will be ready to go in the spring. He is an ace and he is ours. I think that it is a little early to be negative about what the immediate future holds.

[jacksonianmarch]

Is there no chance DHern is used as a starter?

 

You think Houck is not ML ready or not better than Velazquez?

 

DHern cannot find the plate enough to start in the majors. His wildness is probably a bit scary for the batters in a one inning performance and he can use that to his advantage. But for 100 pitches he’ll only give the Sox 3-4 innings. Not worth it

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, it's sad, but sadder still might be a plan that keeps us non contending even longer than just 1-2 years.

 

This is what bringing in a finisher does to your squad. DD finished the mission. I do believe I told you guys when he was hired that he is gonna open a window and generate a cliff. Nobody believed me, but here we are. DD decimates a farm system and fills your squad up with high cost contracts far beyond peak performance. But for a short time, he makes your team the most talented squad in baseball. He wasn’t allowed to have the hug contracts in Miami, but his big market experience in Detroit showed what he was gonna do in Boston and he repeated it.

 

So is it sad that you’re in the cliff phase? Not at all. 2018 will fly forever, and heck, the Sox beat the Houston cheaters on their way to the WS title. DD was worth it, but now you’re paying the piper.

 

You don’t “short recover” from a DD cliff. Look at Detroit. He demolished their farm to such a degree that their rebuild looks like total horseshit and they really don’t have any good major league talent even 5 years after his departure. I don’t think Henry will allow that and This is exactly why the Sox hired Bloom. Bloom is the kind of guy who can win trades of a yesteryear club and also build a good farm through traditional drafting and IFA signings. But with your money on the books and the typical maturation time needed to create top prospects from draft picks, you’re gonna need to give him 3 years.

[Tedballgame]

At least in a semi-rebuild, the Sox will win as many WS titles in the next 3 years as the Skankees: 0