A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

At least in a semi-rebuild, the Sox will win as many WS titles in the next 3 years as the Skankees: 0

 

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

[OH FOY]

Houck is a wait and see. When he got promoted to the Pawsox, they put him in BP.

Hernandez, didn't do that great last year as a Starter in the Minors, but he impressed out of BP with the Parent club.

We should be able to grab a cheap 5th Starter. Trade could be involved too.

[kenmeister]

One wonders if JBJ could play just 1 game, then get red hot.

 

Oh I was teasing. But seriously, maybe JBJ should start spring training, um, now?

[Bellhorn04]

Oh I was teasing. But seriously, maybe JBJ should start spring training, um, now?

 

JBJ was on fire in last spring's games, IIRC. Didn't translate to a good start.

[moonslav59]

DHern cannot find the plate enough to start in the majors. His wildness is probably a bit scary for the batters in a one inning performance and he can use that to his advantage. But for 100 pitches he’ll only give the Sox 3-4 innings. Not worth it

 

I certainly agree he looks more like a RP'er at this point in his career, but I wouldn't count him out as a starter option. We may also try to use him as a 2-3 IP starter and long man, where he basically just goes once through a line-up.

 

What about Houck?

[moonslav59]

This is what bringing in a finisher does to your squad. DD finished the mission. I do believe I told you guys when he was hired that he is gonna open a window and generate a cliff. Nobody believed me, but here we are. DD decimates a farm system and fills your squad up with high cost contracts far beyond peak performance. But for a short time, he makes your team the most talented squad in baseball. He wasn’t allowed to have the hug contracts in Miami, but his big market experience in Detroit showed what he was gonna do in Boston and he repeated it.

 

So is it sad that you’re in the cliff phase? Not at all. 2018 will fly forever, and heck, the Sox beat the Houston cheaters on their way to the WS title. DD was worth it, but now you’re paying the piper.

 

You don’t “short recover” from a DD cliff. Look at Detroit. He demolished their farm to such a degree that their rebuild looks like total horseshit and they really don’t have any good major league talent even 5 years after his departure. I don’t think Henry will allow that and This is exactly why the Sox hired Bloom. Bloom is the kind of guy who can win trades of a yesteryear club and also build a good farm through traditional drafting and IFA signings. But with your money on the books and the typical maturation time needed to create top prospects from draft picks, you’re gonna need to give him 3 years.

 

Please don't say "nobody believed me." There were plenty of us who knew we were going for broke and would have to pay later. Plenty.

[moonslav59]

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

 

Cole will certainly make you an instant top contender. I'm just hoping for the biggest and longest deal in history, so you guys will be firmly in the boat we were in 4 years ago with a certain cliff on the horizon after this window closes.

 

I do not think the Sox have a better chance at winning a ring in the next 2-3 years, assuming you guys sign an ace, but I would not bet against us in the next decade.

[moonslav59]

Houck is a wait and see. When he got promoted to the Pawsox, they put him in BP.

Hernandez, didn't do that great last year as a Starter in the Minors, but he impressed out of BP with the Parent club.

We should be able to grab a cheap 5th Starter. Trade could be involved too.

 

Like JBJ for a cheap SP'er.

 

Like maybe Chavis for one. Maybe JBJ & Chavis for a better one.

 

We still need a 1Bman, too and 2B is not looking too good either. Trading JBJ opens a hole in an already short depth OF.

 

If trading JBJ gets us just slightly under the lux tax, and our goal is to stay under, Bloom is going to have to work wonders to fill all these holes without upping the spending or trading away from our already weak farm. That's one reason I think we trade Price or Eovaldi. We'd create budget space to help us fill the 4-5 major holes we have right now:

 

5th SP'er (plus 4th if we trade Eovladi or Price)- in house options are just not there.

CF - I doubt Duran is really ML caliber.

1B - Dalbec/Chavis/Travis could work out.

2B- Chavis/Lin/Chatham/Marco could be adequate, at best.

RP- We may just go with what we have- again.

C- Hard to imagine we stay in house here.

 

[notin]

Hernandez might not be a starter, but he might be an opener...

[moonslav59]

Hernandez might not be a starter, but he might be an opener...

 

That's what I was getting at, and with a 26 man roster, it's a safe bet we stay with an extra pitcher all year long. That makes the "opener idea" more

 

I could be wrong, but I think last year was the first time we kept 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster every game or nearly every game. Anybody know, if this is true?

[moonslav59]

Brewers sign Keon Broxton to a minor league deal.

 

I know there are more like him out there, but a minor league deal seems like one got away.

[notin]

Brewers sign Keon Broxton to a minor league deal.

 

I know there are more like him out there, but a minor league deal seems like one got away.

 

Posted this on the General Baseball Forum.

[moonslav59]

Posted this on the General Baseball Forum.

 

Maybe it belongs on the "Bloom Move Your Ass" thread.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.

[Bellhorn04]

In a bit of a surprise, MLBTR reports that the Red Sox remain engaged in discussions with Porcello.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm ready for anything in the winter meetings, including major moves by Boston or slight tweaks by Boston. But there are some scenarios I view as highly unlikely:

 

1. I just can't see a new GM/Lord of Baseball Ops NOT making a sincere effort to make his team better in his first season at the helm.

 

2. I just can't see the old owners NOT agreeing to do whatever it takes to get their team back to contender status, and that includes hanging with the big boys.

 

3. I just can't see the Sox trading Mookie Betts for anybodies that won't improve the team -- for the coming year and the future.... so that means either a deal that nets a haul of MLB-ready prospects or established All-Star-caliber talent -- in other words, an overpay from one club that's going all in for one year.

 

4. I agree the latter is unlikely, but absolutely, positively cannot see Bloom, Henry et. all, swapping Betts for any warm body -- just a notch beyond a draft pick -- or using him as the salary-dumped guy to get below a tax number (So... apologies to reset fans, but no apology to Yankee fans pretending to offer constructive rebuild advice who are secretly hoping and praying their arch rivals will make the worst decision since Babe Ruth and jettison their best all-around homegrown superstar about-to-enter-his-prime future Hall of Famer in half a century).

 

IF there is a blockbuster, I predict it may include another starting position player and even a "star", along with a high-priced pitcher -- but the return, along with someone else's salary dump, will bring legitimate talent back. Because 2020 will not be a bridge year, since the Nation will not accept that.

Edited December 8, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Swiharts Ghost]

MLBTR...

 

Red Sox ace Chris Sale finished the 2019 season on the injured list with inflammation in his throwing elbow. However, there’s “no doubt” he’ll be ready for spring training, he told reporters (including Adam Fisher of the Fort Myers News-Press). Sale was cleared to begin throwing last week, and he offered a few details on his offseason program yesterday. Currently, Sale is throwing three times a week, he said, and he plans to up his workload soon before moving to long-toss and, eventually, mound work. Sale’s peripherals were dominant again last season, but his 147.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball no doubt made for some disappointing results. The Sox will be hoping for more typical bottom line numbers from the star southpaw in 2020.

 

Sounds very promising.Love this news .

[Tedballgame]

Just read where the Sox are interested in Porcello. I like him but he would have to take a huge pay cut to come back. He loves pitching in Boston and answers the bell each time. More than I can say for Price.

[Tedballgame]

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

Cole=Ed Whitson=Kevin Brown=Sonny Gray

[notin]

Cole=Ed Whitson=Kevin Brown=Sonny Gray

 

I think Cole might be good for one or two years, but then his salary and performance will force some harsh decisions for his new team...

[Tedballgame]

You’ll eat those words and I’ll ensure I torture you with them. No Yankee move over the past 3 seasons has been a “we are the top dog” move like the Sox has with Sale and the Astros made with Verlander, Cole and Greinke. Getting Cole for the Yanks is that move. Cashman will put a target on his back with this move and he will welcome it. It’s time

Yeah, its been 10 years since they won anything. What a drought. They need to do something to keep their pathetic fans happy. They still won't win, with Cole. Houston had a better team the last two years, had Cole, and didn't win.

[Nick]

6) We will waste our time talking about Mookie Betts

 

As they attempt to get under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, the Red Sox are going to try like heck to unload some payroll obligations by moving David Price (three years, $96 million remaining) or Nathan Eovaldi (three years, $51 million) in the right deal, and, of the two, Eovaldi is more likely to move. It also sure feels like Jackie Bradley Jr., who will likely make eight figures in his last round of arbitration, could go.

 

What will definitely happen at the Winter Meetings, though, is a lot more public Betts discussion than is necessary. His trade market is too limited by his projected arbitration salary and his proximity to free agency (next winter). The payroll goal is not so pressing that it should compel Boston to make a bad baseball trade.

 

Per MLB

[jacksonianmarch]

Cole will certainly make you an instant top contender. I'm just hoping for the biggest and longest deal in history, so you guys will be firmly in the boat we were in 4 years ago with a certain cliff on the horizon after this window closes.

 

I do not think the Sox have a better chance at winning a ring in the next 2-3 years, assuming you guys sign an ace, but I would not bet against us in the next decade.

 

If we decimate our farm in the next 3-4 years, then I’ll agree with you on a cliff. It’s a two step process. Sell the farm. Spend all the money. We are heading towards the latter, mostly because Cash has been reticent to do the former

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, its been 10 years since they won anything. What a drought. They need to do something to keep their pathetic fans happy. They still won't win, with Cole. Houston had a better team the last two years, had Cole, and didn't win.

 

I bet you’re the kind of troll who is going to hide if the yanks win a World Series, aren’t you?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Cole might be good for one or two years, but then his salary and performance will force some harsh decisions for his new team...

 

He’s 29 without big injury history. A deal like this is one you hope for 3-4 years of top level performance

[moonslav59]

If we decimate our farm in the next 3-4 years, then I’ll agree with you on a cliff. It’s a two step process. Sell the farm. Spend all the money. We are heading towards the latter, mostly because Cash has been reticent to do the former

 

It will be hard to keep your farm this good. It's already started declining as players are called up.

 

Winning brings worse draft picks. Spending large limits IFA signings.

 

Yes, it helps to have some good prospects already in the system to infuse some low cost help in the next 2-4 years, but the well will eventually run dry, and my guess is, when it looks like you have a great chance at winning a ring, you'll make a couple trades of prospects for that one or tow pieces you feel you need to put you over the top.

 

It's a pattern that just keeps repeating itself, despite the cliffs they cause.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Just read where the Sox are interested in Porcello. I like him but he would have to take a huge pay cut to come back. He loves pitching in Boston and answers the bell each time. More than I can say for Price.

 

Over-Price(d)? Granted, three straight great outings in the October 2018 wiped out some previous brutal postseason starts...

 

But if my quick division is correct, based on an average salary of $30 million per year, here is what Boston has paid for in the first four regular seasons of his current contract (based on regular season averages from baseball-ref):

 

$49,019 dollars per batter faced; $204,081 dollars per inning pitched; $1.25 Million dollars per start; $2.5 Million dollars per win.

[notin]

He’s 29 without big injury history. A deal like this is one you hope for 3-4 years of top level performance

 

Yeah but it only takes one sour pitch to go from “no injury history” to “significant injury history”.

 

If he had a few injuries, the Yankees might be better off because the commitment wouldn’t be such an investment. Unless they hire Dombrowski to negotiate this deal..,

[Swiharts Ghost]

Maybe we are hoodwinking the league and are going to 350 million

[Tedballgame]

I bet you’re the kind of troll who is going to hide if the yanks win a World Series, aren’t you?

You mean like you did after the Sox beat the Yankees in the playoffs last year? I don't have to worry about hiding because the Yankees aren't going to be winning anything for a long time. Chokers!