A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

You keep tooting this same horn, and I'm not going to say I know more about injuries than you, but I still think Sale is going to surprise you.

 

He may have to re-invent himself a little bit, but he started to last year, and had his highest K rate ever while pitching with this issue. There is reason for hope, but certainly we Sox fans must be ready for disappointment as well.

 

Yes, his K rate went up and his peripherals looked good, but I’ve seen this narrative before. I’ve seen a lefty ace lose their power and transform into a soft tossing back of the rotation guy. I’m not saying Sale isn’t going to be useful. I’m saying he’s got to stay healthy #1 which he’s been unable to do. Then he has to try to limit the hard contact. But, losing that dominant fastball is going to lend him to being homer prone. It happened with CC once he lost his fastball and it’s happening with Sale as well. Having a big homer rate is a great way to underperform your peripherals.

[notin]

Yes, his K rate went up and his peripherals looked good, but I’ve seen this narrative before. I’ve seen a lefty ace lose their power and transform into a soft tossing back of the rotation guy. I’m not saying Sale isn’t going to be useful. I’m saying he’s got to stay healthy #1 which he’s been unable to do. Then he has to try to limit the hard contact. But, losing that dominant fastball is going to lend him to being homer prone. It happened with CC once he lost his fastball and it’s happening with Sale as well. Having a big homer rate is a great way to underperform your peripherals.

 

How can you tell if Sale has lost his velocity? It's been all over the place for years.

 

Over his career, his FB velocity has gone from 96.1 to 95.3 to 91.6 to 93.1 to 93.8 to 94.5 to 92.8 to 94.4 to 94.7 to 93.2 last year. According to Microsoft Excel, his velocity next year will be 93.4.

 

And here is the funny part. No matter how hard Sale throws, he has Cy Young caliber seasons. Last year was the first time since 2012 that Sale did not finish in the top 6 for Cy Young. (Ironically, the two other year he didn't - 2010 and 2011 - were the two years he had the most velocity.

[S5Dewey]

How can you tell if Sale has lost his velocity? It's been all over the place for years.

 

Over his career, his FB velocity has gone from 96.1 to 95.3 to 91.6 to 93.1 to 93.8 to 94.5 to 92.8 to 94.4 to 94.7 to 93.2 last year. According to Microsoft Excel, his velocity next year will be 93.4.

 

And here is the funny part. No matter how hard Sale throws, he has Cy Young caliber seasons. Last year was the first time since 2012 that Sale did not finish in the top 6 for Cy Young. (Ironically, the two other year he didn't - 2010 and 2011 - were the two years he had the most velocity.

 

Wasn't it Tom Seaver who said, "Hitting is all about timing. Pitching is all about disrupting timing"?

 

Maybe Sale is onto something! /s/

[Bellhorn04]

Bloomer needs to trade Price or Eovaldi. That's starting to look mandatory.

[moonslav59]

Yes, his K rate went up and his peripherals looked good, but I’ve seen this narrative before. I’ve seen a lefty ace lose their power and transform into a soft tossing back of the rotation guy. I’m not saying Sale isn’t going to be useful. I’m saying he’s got to stay healthy #1 which he’s been unable to do. Then he has to try to limit the hard contact. But, losing that dominant fastball is going to lend him to being homer prone. It happened with CC once he lost his fastball and it’s happening with Sale as well. Having a big homer rate is a great way to underperform your peripherals.

 

1) Everybody's HR/9 went up,last year.

2) Sale's sample sizes was rather small in 2019 to make any projections.

3) His K-rate showed he still has swing and miss stuff- whether fast or not.

 

HR/9last 2-3 years:

0.54>2.48 Eovaldi

1.68>1.27>1.60Porcello

1.09>1.28>1.26 Price

1.01>0.63>1.47 Sale

1.25>1.09>1.06 ERod

 

[notin]

Wasn't it Tom Seaver who said, "Hitting is all about timing. Pitching is all about disrupting timing"?

 

Maybe Sale is onto something! /s/

 

I thought it was Warren Spahn who said that...

[Bellhorn04]

Wasn't it Tom Seaver who said, "Hitting is all about timing. Pitching is all about disrupting timing"?

 

Maybe Sale is onto something! /s/

 

The Astros have their own saying: 'Hitting is all about knowing what's coming.'

[OH FOY]

Wasn't it Tom Seaver who said, "Hitting is all about timing. Pitching is all about disrupting timing"?

 

Maybe Sale is onto something! /s/

 

He also said the most important Pitch in a at bat is the 1st Pitch. This starts the Process, of disrupting the timing.

In one of his last interviews he said, that this is the most disappointing things in Pitching today. Not throwing 1st Pitch strikes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He also said the most important Pitch in a at bat is the 1st Pitch. This starts the Process, of disrupting the timing.

In one of his last interviews he said, that this is the most disappointing things in Pitching today. Not throwing 1st Pitch strikes.

 

...which often leads to the most disappointing thing to watch from this fan's standpoint: when Sox pitchers walk the leadoff batter, and then spend a minute per pitch nibbling around and going to full counts on the next three or four hitters. The modern ughfest.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Astros have their own saying: 'Hitting is all about knowing what's coming.'

 

That’s a good one, lol

[kenmeister]

1) Everybody's HR/9 went up,last year.

2) Sale's sample sizes was rather small in 2019 to make any projections.

3) His K-rate showed he still has swing and miss stuff- whether fast or not.

 

HR/9last 2-3 years:

0.54>2.48 Eovaldi

1.68>1.27>1.60Porcello

1.09>1.28>1.26 Price

1.01>0.63>1.47 Sale

1.25>1.09>1.06 ERod

 

 

A reminder that Eovaldi has tremendous upside if he can stay healthy and harness his good stuff. I'm still hopeful he will amaze us.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A reminder that Eovaldi has tremendous upside if he can stay healthy and harness his good stuff. I'm still hopeful he will amaze us.

 

I agree. He's got better stuff than Wheeler and less wear than Hamels (but more tear), who both just signed -- and he makes less AAV. Suddenly, Eovaldi -- who people seem to forget was one of the most sought-after free agent starters a year ago -- isn't overpaid... as long as he can last through a season and make 30 starts.

[harmony]

A reminder that Eovaldi has tremendous upside if he can stay healthy and harness his good stuff. I'm still hopeful he will amaze us.

Nathan Eovaldi is a nearly 30-year-old righthander with a career ERA+ of 94.

[moonslav59]

Here's how I see our biggest FA signings or re-signings (Some were not all bad or all good- these are overall grades.):

 

This is not a complete list. Add names, if you think of some...

 

Bad to Bust

Brad Penny

John Smoltz

Mike Cameron

Clement

Jenks

Dawson

Steve Avery

Tony Perez

JT Snow

Jack Clark

Offerman

Matt Young

Lugo

Renteria

Sizemore

HanRam

Rusney Castillo

Sandoval

Crawford

 

Not Bad or close to Bad

Ramiro Ramirez

T Saito

Dice-K

Danny Darwin

Pokey Reese

Jonny Gomes

Ryan Dempster

 

Decent

Mike Torrez

Jeff Reardon

Alex Gonzalez

Lackey

Cody Ross

Adrian Gonzalez

A.Aceves

A. Ogando

Chris Young

Price

Stephen Drew (first signing)

Victorino (first year made it worth it)

JD Drew

Porcello

AGon

Fister

Moreland

 

Good to Great

Bill Campbell

Okajima

Moncada (Got us Sale)

Napoli (first signing)

Beltre

Foulke (first year made it worth it)

Muller

Damon

Uehara

Manny

Ortiz

J Tazawa

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.

[Bellhorn04]

Here's how I see our biggest FA signings or re-signings (Some were not all bad or all good- these are overall grades.):

 

This is not a complete list. Add names, if you think of some...

 

The problem is you have, for example, Sizemore and Sandoval in the same basket. Both were flops, but one was insignificant and one was a disaster.

[Slasher9]

Manny and Ortiz have to be in their own category.

 

Great to EPIC or something similar to that.

[moonslav59]

I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.

 

It was not accepted because of being lop-sided not because of the 1.10 difference. It will accept differences larger than that.

[moonslav59]

The problem is you have, for example, Sizemore and Sandoval in the same basket. Both were flops, but one was insignificant and one was a disaster.

 

True, but I didn't want to create 16 categories.

[Bellhorn04]

True, but I didn't want to create 16 categories.

 

But you're just the man to do it.

[moonslav59]

Jake Marisnik traded to the Mets for scraps.

 

There goes one guy I thought we could replace JBJ with at little cost.

[notin]

I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.

 

What I’m reading here is you’re attempts to discredit the thing really just show me your missing the point of it’s usefulness.

 

Don’t be one of those people who launches into attempts to discredit everything they don’t like or understand. Please. I enjoy your other posts...

[notin]

Jake Marisnik traded to the Mets for scraps.

 

There goes one guy I thought we could replace JBJ with at little cost.

 

Because Marisnick is such a unique talent.

 

I say, bring on Broxton!!

Edited December 5, 2019 by notin

[kenmeister]

Here's how I see our biggest FA signings or re-signings (Some were not all bad or all good- these are overall grades.):

 

This is not a complete list. Add names, if you think of some...

 

Bad to Bust

 

Steve Avery

 

 

Ah no you don't. Don't rob my young adulthood. I went to this game in '98 I think. Avery starting against the Mariners. It was the Greatest Game of All Time. Ken Griffey Jr. shocked everyone at Fenway by bunting. Bunt went down the first base line. Avery runs over to scoop it up. Uses his left hand to toss it to first base and just barely beats Griffey. Not too many other pitchers could have made that play. Avery goes 5 innings, but shuts the Mariners down. We of course end up winning with a Nomar grand slam after a Tom Gordon appearance. All the players in that game, so epic. We all stayed standing after the game ended chanting MVP! MVP! to Nomar.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What I’m reading here is you’re attempts to discredit the thing really just show me your missing the point of it’s usefulness.

 

Don’t be one of those people who launches into attempts to discredit everything they don’t like or understand. Please. I enjoy your other posts...

 

I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

 

I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.

[notin]

I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

 

I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.

 

There are plenty of realities in trades that the simulator can never catch.

 

What it does s compare projected WAR at some dollar value vs projected salary for every player. If the financial WAR number is greater, the player has a positive trade value and so on. It can’t determine need or team strategy or anything personal about the player and doesn’t to my knowledge incorporate NTCs. It just tells you if a trade is fair from a performance vs money standpoint.

 

Funny thing, the Braves probably reject your Acuna trade, because it would cost them something like $70mill. The simulator doesn’t take self-imposed team payrolls into account either.

 

One thing it does do is not allow 7 players for 1 player trades. Also it has a range for acceptance, and a $1mill difference always works. And apparently there is some logic where a team getting a high value player has to give up a player with something like 50% or so of his value. You know - getting something good back. To prevent those 4 quarters for a dollar trades fans make up on their own and think are fair.

 

The kicker,’most trades probably don’t match up on it. That’s ok. Bad trades happen. Most trades are probab;y worse for one team. Ever read the posts on MLBTR on a thread about a trade? The deal can be 10 minutes old, but inevitably someone will ask which team won the trade?

 

The simulator answers for that guy. It also really accepts trades that are equal financially (the guys who wrote it worked in finance). Frankly, I see better and more realistic trade proposals on that page than in any MLB.com article. Those guys are ALWAYS overestimating what a player can get. And here is the funny part - when reality kicks in and that trade doesn't happen, fans blame the GM!!! “Ian Browne said Bloom could get Lux, May, Ruiz and a house in Malibu for Betts. But our stupid GM settled for Tony Freakin' Gonsolin and Julio Urias!! Fire Bloom!!!”

Edited December 5, 2019 by notin

[harmony]

Ah no you don't. Don't rob my young adulthood. I went to this game in '98 I think. Avery starting against the Mariners. It was the Greatest Game of All Time. Ken Griffey Jr. shocked everyone at Fenway by bunting. Bunt went down the first base line. Avery runs over to scoop it up. Uses his left hand to toss it to first base and just barely beats Griffey. Not too many other pitchers could have made that play. Avery goes 5 innings, but shuts the Mariners down. We of course end up winning with a Nomar grand slam after a Tom Gordon appearance. All the players in that game, so epic. We all stayed standing after the game ended chanting MVP! MVP! to Nomar.

That 76-85 Seattle team in 1998 featured three Hall of Famers in Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson (plus Alex Rodriguez with Hall of Fame numbers).

 

Here is your box score:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199809020.shtml

[notin]

I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

 

.

 

 

Maybe because as Red Sox fans, we are a bit spoiled by our excessive budget? If it means anything, Dave Dombrowski clearly shares your view about the trade value of minor leaguers. And he has used it to build several successful teams.

 

If the Sox deal away a prospect who works out elsewhere, they can fill the void with an expensive free agent. Bye bye Kopech and Buttrey. Hello, Eovaldi and Kimbrel. But not every team can do this. Think Pittsburgh misses Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? How are they going to replace them? (Probably by dealing Starling Marte.) For some teams, those non-major leaguers are essential components of the future, and when they don't work out, bad things happen. But when you have a budget, that is a necessary risk.

 

And really, even when a GM does employ the Dombrowski method for a successful team, the eventual lack of those not-yet-ready-for-prime-time players can create several years of a weak performing and expensive franchise. Dombrowski has a habit of leaving teams in that state, as well...

Edited December 5, 2019 by notin

[moonslav59]

I just don't see how players who've never played in the majors can be projected to have so much more value than players who have made the bigs and are already accomplished. I get that the number of years a player is controlled is important, but not if he becomes a bust. At least we know guys like Acuna and Soto have done it at the MLB level, but does anyone really think Acuna is worth Betts, Benintendi, Bradley and Bogaerts? The site accepted that deal, but said it was a minor overpay...

 

I accept that the site is useful as one guide, but there are a lot of other facets involved in trades (and not just the behind-the-scenes, sometimes ugly, truths fans never need to know). The most obvious that drive deals: what are a team's current needs (and yes, some of those may be short-term, and others long-term)? Those are factors a lot of fans also enjoy discussing and arguing over the hot stove.

 

It's 'Acuna Matada for God's sake!

 

Seriously though, his value is based on alot of positive things all adding into one massive number.

 

He turns 22 soon and already has over 1200 PAs.

 

He's got 9 years of team control at an ungodly low price: 20:$1M, 21:$5M, 22:$15M, 23:$17M, 24:$17M, 25:$17M, 26:$17M, 27:$17M club option ($10M buyout), 28:$17M club option.

 

He has a career .897 OPS with 67 HRs in 1202 PAs.

 

He became a plus UZR OF'erin 2019.

 

When you look at the trade value of someone like Betts (50 value),who has just 1 year of team control and will be paid about $28M, one could argue it's Betts who has an inflated value not Acuna (200 value).

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Tome, the trade simulator is just a fun way to throw trade ideas around.

 

Looking at the Braves team,one can be blown away by the values placed on so many players and prospects they have:

(Sox players in red)

 

200 Acuna

176 Albies

127 Devers

91 Bogaerts

79 Pache

70 Soroka

57 Waters

50 Devers

49 Riley

37 Freeman

36 Beni

32 Swanson

31 Anderson

28 ERod

25 Barnes

25 Casas

23 Vazquez

21 Wright

19 Dalbec

18 Chavis

16 Mata

15 Langeleriers

15 Muller

14 Shewmake

13 Newcomb

12 Toussaint

12 Duran

11 D Hernandez

10 Davidson