A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[Tedballgame]

I bet you’re the kind of troll who is going to hide if the yanks win a World Series, aren’t you?

You are the only troll here. You don't see me on a Yankee board. You have to come in here and brag up the Yankees all of the time. Who cares about them? They haven't won anything for soooooo long. It probably really makes you sad.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are the only troll here. You don't see me on a Yankee board. You have to come in here and brag up the Yankees all of the time. Who cares about them? They haven't won anything for soooooo long. It probably really makes you sad.

 

Oh child, you have no idea. Dance my little troll, I’m enjoying this

[Tedballgame]

Cole has 2 complete games in his career, 1 shutout in his career, 95 wins and no WS titles and the Yankees are offering him 245 million. LMAO!!!!!

[Tedballgame]

Not winning anything for 10 years is making them stupid.

[Larry Cook]

While I would love to see the Yankees choke on this contract, I am still thinking the angels pony up some more.

[Tedballgame]

While I would love to see the Yankees choke on this contract, I am still thinking the angels pony up some more.

I think you may be right. He is from SoCal and he would much rather pitch for the Angels in L.A. than pitch and live in New York. No comparison in lifestyle. Angel fans are also much better and more knowledgeable than Yankee fans.

[Larry Cook]

I think you may be right. He is from SoCal and he would much rather pitch for the Angels in L.A. than pitch and live in New York. No comparison in lifestyle. Angel fans are also much better and more knowledgeable than Yankee fans.

 

Except for philly, Yankees fans are the worst. So much of a Yankees fan’s entitlement is based on past glory.

[cp176]

Just read where the Sox are interested in Porcello. I like him but he would have to take a huge pay cut to come back. He loves pitching in Boston and answers the bell each time. More than I can say for Price.

 

i've always liked Porcello in a #4 role. I'm glad for him that he won a Cy Young but it didn't change my mind with the overall opinion. i would like to see him back in Boston but I don't know if they are willing to afford him. I read somewhere that the suggested cost to sign him would likely be around 11 million. There are going to be more teams interested in him I think than may people expect. he is too healthy and consistent not to demand some interest. A bidding war for his services is apt to exempt the Sox.

[notin]

i've always liked Porcello in a #4 role. I'm glad for him that he won a Cy Young but it didn't change my mind with the overall opinion. i would like to see him back in Boston but I don't know if they are willing to afford him. I read somewhere that the suggested cost to sign him would likely be around 11 million. There are going to be more teams interested in him I think than may people expect. he is too healthy and consistent not to demand some interest. A bidding war for his services is apt to exempt the Sox.

 

I think the only point in the Soxfavor is Porcello's expressd desire to stay. But he probably isn't so keen on Boston so as take a one year deal here while passing over multiyear offers from other teams...

[moonslav59]

I think the only point in the Soxfavor is Porcello's expressd desire to stay. But he probably isn't so keen on Boston so as take a one year deal here while passing over multiyear offers from other teams...

 

One has to wonder why teams offering him a multi year deal wouldn't also offer a higher 1 year deal, if that's what Porcello is looking for.

[Tedballgame]

One has to wonder why teams offering him a multi year deal wouldn't also offer a higher 1 year deal, if that's what Porcello is looking for.

After last year's numbers, I don't see him getting a multi year deal. A one year make good deal of 7M seems fair for his age and numbers. If he loves pitching in Boston, close to where he grew up he might take it. He has made plenty of money already.

[Tedballgame]

I will most remember Rick for his one hitter against the Yankees in 2018 and pitching out of the bullpen in the 2018 playoffs. I also remember how he always answered questions from the media with no excuses. He "GOT IT" when it came to pitching in Boston.

[moonslav59]

After last year's numbers, I don't see him getting a multi year deal. A one year make good deal of 7M seems fair for his age and numbers. If he loves pitching in Boston, close to where he grew up he might take it. He has made plenty of money already.

 

He will get more than that. He will likely get more than $10M/1.

[OH FOY]

1 year deals make you a Rental.

2 year deals makes you tradeable.

[Elktonnick]

I am beginning to believe that the Red Sox have no intention to get below the 208M LT threshold. While the Sox will try to reduce payroll to a degree my sense is that they realize Sox fans will not tolerate a rebuilding team. In pure economic terms I think Henry believes it would cost them more in lost revenues across the full spectrum of their operations including NESN then any luxury tax. I think a part of this calculation is a belief that the new CBA in a few years will totally restructure and possibly eliminate any Luxury Tax.

 

If this is the case then I don't see any big trades coming

[cp176]

I am beginning to believe that the Red Sox have no intention to get below the 208M LT threshold. While the Sox will try to reduce payroll to a degree my sense is that they realize Sox fans will not tolerate a rebuilding team. In pure economic terms I think Henry believes it would cost them more in lost revenues across the full spectrum of their operations including NESN then any luxury tax. I think a part of this calculation is a belief that the new CBA in a few years will totally restructure and possibly eliminate any Luxury Tax.

 

If this is the case then I don't see any big trades coming

 

I tend to agree with you and i hope that you are right.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The tax was a pseudo cap both sides begrudgingly agreed upon, and a point of contention that may lead to another work stoppage soon... which doesn't really explain why a lot more teams suddenly seem more willing to spend like drunken sailors (or posters). Is it preemptive, like in '94 when Duquette had deals in place for Sosa and Wettland?

 

But what if it's because... they can all afford to splurge? Harper to Philly, Machado to San Diego, Corbin to Nats last year; the White Sox, Brewers, Braves, Nats again, already active this year. Rangers want Rendon. Maybe those of us are wrong to think the only cities that can actually afford Betts are the big 4 (Boston, NY, Chicago, LA).

 

What would be less surprising this week: the Red Sox become players for a big name free agent or are mentioned in trade talks for a star whose original team "deems" too expensive to keep?

[moonslav59]

I am beginning to believe that the Red Sox have no intention to get below the 208M LT threshold. While the Sox will try to reduce payroll to a degree my sense is that they realize Sox fans will not tolerate a rebuilding team. In pure economic terms I think Henry believes it would cost them more in lost revenues across the full spectrum of their operations including NESN then any luxury tax. I think a part of this calculation is a belief that the new CBA in a few years will totally restructure and possibly eliminate any Luxury Tax.

 

If this is the case then I don't see any big trades coming

 

Would Sox fans tolerate a team without JBJ and Price but with Roark & Teheran?

 

It's not a major overhaul.

[moonslav59]

I tend to agree with you and i hope that you are right.

 

We can hope, but what if we get what we want and then they decide to reset next year instead?

[harmony]

Would Sox fans tolerate a team without JBJ and Price but with Roark & Teheran?

 

It's not a major overhaul.

But a likely downgrade from an 84-win team.

[S5Dewey]

We can hope, but what if we get what we want and then they decide to reset next year instead?

 

IMO resetting next year after Mookie can be a FA and JDM can exercise his opt-out makes a lot more sense than doing it in 2020. The thing we seem to be overlooking is that our position players are plenty good enough to win the WS and our pitching staff was injury plagued all year.

Keeping that pitching staff is risky because they may remain injury prone as they age but trading them is equally as risky because they may very well bounce back from their injuries. In addition, if we sign two more pitchers one or both of them may get injured throughout the year.

 

I like going forward with what we have.

[oldtimer]

IMO resetting next year after Mookie can be a FA and JDM can exercise his opt-out makes a lot more sense than doing it in 2020. The thing we seem to be overlooking is that our position players are plenty good enough to win the WS and our pitching staff was injury plagued all year.

Keeping that pitching staff is risky because they may remain injury prone as they age but trading them is equally as risky because they may very well bounce back from their injuries. In addition, if we sign two more pitchers one or both of them may get injured throughout the year.

 

I like going forward with what we have.

 

I think resetting this year makes better sense since the pitching rotation is coming off injuries and will probably not be solid enough to make us a coontender. Resetting this year then allows us to compete for Mookie and/or other quality players in 2021.

[Tedballgame]

After what Strasburg got the Yankees will have to pay through the nose to get Cole. Good.

[notin]

I think resetting this year makes better sense since the pitching rotation is coming off injuries and will probably not be solid enough to make us a coontender. Resetting this year then allows us to compete for Mookie and/or other quality players in 2021.

 

Since nothing has been done yet, we have no idea what any plans are. But if the Sox are on the fence about resetting, they do have until July 31 to decide.

 

I figure them possibly exploring trades for Betts, Martinez, Bradley, Price and Eovaldi all off-season, but only making the deal if it meets Bloom’s wish list. If the deals make little to no sense, then maybe the Sox make a run at 2020 and reassess everything July..

[Elktonnick]

Would Sox fans tolerate a team without JBJ and Price but with Roark & Teheran?

 

It's not a major overhaul.

 

It doesn't matter to Sox fans who wears the laundry so long as they produce. I think many sox fans myself included have soured on Price long ago. Many including me, haven't forgotten nor forgiven him over the Eckersley fiasco. I think many also feel that JBJ is simply too quixotic at the plate. So if Boston trades either one or both I don't think fans would mind so long as they get fair value in return of players who would keep the team in contention. I think what is really going on is that the FO believes the current system of luxury tax will disappear after the next CBA so the term reset may be meaningless in the long term.

[moonslav59]

But a likely downgrade from an 84-win team.

 

Why?

 

While Porcello & Price may have higher WAR values, how much is the WAR of the pitcher who has to replace Price every year after he gets hurt?

 

IP matter

 

2017-2019

IP Pitcher WAR

569 Porcello 6.2

539 Teheran 3.3

520 Roark 6.9

358 Price 6.2

 

Plus, we have to factor in any plus WAR Myers & Odor give us over Travis, Chavis and/or Lin.

 

I see our chances being about even.

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/red-sox-notes-rumors-jbj-mookie-porcello-holt-front-office.html

[Jasonbay44]

Sounds like Travis Shaw wants to return to Boston, and they're expected to meet. He was absolutely horrible last season, but could be worth a shot. He's probably only gonna be signed for 1 year and around minimum.

[notin]

Sounds like Travis Shaw wants to return to Boston, and they're expected to meet. He was absolutely horrible last season, but could be worth a shot. He's probably only gonna be signed for 1 year and around minimum.

 

And then Thormburg should sign with Milwaukee.

 

The best player left standing from that trade looks like Mauricio Dubon...

[OH FOY]

Sean McAdam in San Diego, said nothing is going on with the Sox so far. Heard nothing, about Trades or who they are trying to move.