A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for elaborating, notin and moon. The only thing I can say about those guys who do this for a living: a lot of them are privy to insider info that never gets divulged to the posters. So even though some of their trade proposals are just like ours -- throwing half-cooked pasta against a wall -- we also have to consider there are some facts behind their rumors.

 

No matter what one thinks of Shaughnessy, when he says he's sensing a "bridge year" -- like he did today -- we need to take heed (and hope not). He's the guy, after all, who predicted Dombro was a goner, a month before the axe fell...

Edited December 6, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

Thanks for elaborating, notin and moon. The only thing I can say about those guys who do this for a living: a lot of them are privy to insider info that never gets divulged to the posters. So even though some of their trade proposals are just like ours -- throwing half-cooked pasta against a wall -- we also have to consider there are some facts behind their rumors.

 

No matter what one thinks of Shaughnessy, when he says he's sensing a "bridge year" -- like he did today -- we need to take heed (and hope not). He's the guy, after all, who predicted Dombro was a goner, a month before the axe fell...

 

It's all good 5GG.

 

That trade site isn't supposed to be used to evaluate who is better. It's about trade value, which includes alot of things beyond skilllevel.

 

I'm not a big Shaughnessy fan,but I do agree this could very well turn into a "bridge year," but many felt like 2013 was a bridge year.

 

(I thought dumping DD was the right thing very early,too.)

 

[moonslav59]

Pineda is signing with the Twins for $20M/2. Wheeler just signed for $118/5.

 

Makes men wonder,if there are any bargain deals out therefor SP'ers.

 

What will Porcello make?

 

2017-2019

WAR Pitcher (IP)

9.2 Wheeler (464)

6.9 T Roark(527)

6.2 Porcello (569)

4.6 Cashner (470

4.5 J Chacin (476)

4.2 W Miley (405)

3.6 Pineda (242)

[d-money]

That skankees pitching staff will look ridiculous with cole. God damn yankees! Everyone else will be doormats in the al east next.

[Tedballgame]

That skankees pitching staff will look ridiculous with cole. God damn yankees! Everyone else will be doormats in the al east next.

You're joking, right? What other good starter do they have? Plus, who knows if Cole can pitch in NY? In addition, they don't have him yet. Boras may just be using them to get a bigger contract from a team he really wants to go to.

[Larry Cook]

If the braves had Mookie, they would be World Series favorites.

 

Question is, will they push all their chips to the middle of the table and do whatever it takes to get him?

[Tedballgame]

Tanaka: done, Paxton: Sucks, Severino: hurt, German: hurt, Clemens: retired,

[kenmeister]

That 76-85 Seattle team in 1998 featured three Hall of Famers in Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson (plus Alex Rodriguez with Hall of Fame numbers).

 

Here is your box score:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199809020.shtml

 

Oh wow, you found it! Awesome. That's right, Buhner hit a home run, as did Mike Benjamin of all people.

[notin]

Pineda is signing with the Twins for $20M/2. Wheeler just signed for $118/5.

 

Makes men wonder,if there are any bargain deals out therefor SP'ers.

 

What will Porcello make?

 

2017-2019

WAR Pitcher (IP)

9.2 Wheeler (464)

6.9 T Roark(527)

6.2 Porcello (569)

4.6 Cashner (470

4.5 J Chacin (476)

4.2 W Miley (405)

3.6 Pineda (242)

 

Maybe that logic will make Price (3 years $96mill) look like a good trade target?

Edited December 6, 2019 by notin

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka: done, Paxton: Sucks, Severino: hurt, German: hurt, Clemens: retired,

 

You’re an idiot, wow

[Tedballgame]

You’re an idiot, wow

Look in the mirror pal.

[jacksonianmarch]

Look in the mirror pal.

 

Lol, for a troll, you do amuse me.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe because as Red Sox fans, we are a bit spoiled by our excessive budget? If it means anything, Dave Dombrowski clearly shares your view about the trade value of minor leaguers. And he has used it to build several successful teams.

 

If the Sox deal away a prospect who works out elsewhere, they can fill the void with an expensive free agent. Bye bye Kopech and Buttrey. Hello, Eovaldi and Kimbrel. But not every team can do this. Think Pittsburgh misses Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow? How are they going to replace them? (Probably by dealing Starling Marte.) For some teams, those non-major leaguers are essential components of the future, and when they don't work out, bad things happen. But when you have a budget, that is a necessary risk.

 

Drawing a line between Kopech and Eovaldi is kind of dicey. Kopech has thrown 14 MLB innings and had TJS surgery and is still something of an unknown quantity.

 

The trade the Pirates made for Archer was just flat-out idiotic.

[moonslav59]

Maybe that logic will make Price (3 years $96mill) look like a good trade target?

 

I do think Price has more value than many give to him. Sure, he's not worth $96M/3, but he'd probably get $42-48M/3 on this current open market.

[Bellhorn04]

I do think Price has more value than many give to him. Sure, he's not worth $96M/3, but he'd probably get $42-48M/3 on this current open market.

 

That's about minus 50 million, which I think matches what the trade simulator says.

[moonslav59]

That's about minus 50 million, which I think matches what the trade simulator says.

 

They say minus $60.

 

The thing about Price is that he still pitches every year. He might have had more IP'd this year had we been in the race.

 

While 109 IP is not good, he's had just one season under that in his whole career (2017).

 

While 282 IP over the past 2 years sucks, within the context of MLB, he placed 70th in IP. If you figure there are 150 rotation slots in MLB (30 teams x 5 pitchers), he's above the mean.

[harmony]

I tried to use that trade site to find a way to get Pache. Braves would get Barnes 24.6 + Taylor 5.8 + Walden 5.8 + Workman 5.3 + Dalbec 18.8 + Chavis 17.7, and the Sox would get Pache 79.1. Unfortunately, we fell short, 79.10 to 78.00 -- and the trade was unaccepted. It's asking for another player or cash. I'm not sure if I'd be willing to give up seven guys for someone who's never played a game in the majors... though he did hit .277 in two levels of the minors last year.

The Braves would be unlikely to trade quality for quantity.

[moonslav59]

The Braves would be unlikely to trade quality for quantity.

 

Yes, they have one of the deepest rosters in MLB, if not THE deepest. In all liklihood, they might be looking for a 2 or 3 for 1 deal the other way, so they can add some prospects to the 40 man roster or sign a vet to an area of need without having to DFA a talented player/prospect.

[notin]

The Braves would be unlikely to trade quality for quantity.

 

He’s also joking in a snarky way.

 

As you have used the simulator, you know:

 

1. It wouldn’t reject a trade if the values differed by 1. Not even if they were 1 and 0.

 

2. It actually does not allow 7 for 1 trades. It stops at like 5 (?) and says it’s unrealistic.

 

 

(As per your comment, is Pache really “quality”? He’s “potential” and nothing more.)

Edited December 6, 2019 by notin

[OH FOY]

To me Price is equivalent as Cole Hamels now. He would be a very good addition, to any team that wants to lengthen their Starting Rotation, if healthy.

[moonslav59]

He’s also joking in a snarky way.

 

As you have used the simulator, you know:

 

1. It wouldn’t reject a trade if the values differed by 1. Not even if they were 1 and 0.

 

2. It actually does not allow 7 for 1 trades. It stops at like 5 (?) and says it’s unrealistic.

 

 

(As per your comment, is Pache really “quality”? He’s “potential” and nothing more.)

 

Yes, and potential have real value. Look what some teams can get for that potential.

[notin]

To me Price is equivalent as Cole Hamels now.

 

Hamels got $18mill, so it’s not an unreasonable comp.

 

Trading for Price gives teams the chance to dump another (hopefully) lesser contract, unlike the signing of Hamels did...

[notin]

Yes, and potential have real value. Look what some teams can get for that potential.

 

“Potential” certainly has value, but it also carries significant risk. Let’s not equate “potential” with “quality”...

[moonslav59]

“Potential” certainly has value, but it also carries significant risk. Let’s not equate “potential” with “quality”...

 

No, it's unproven quality, but never the less, it has tangible trade value.

 

Even "proven" vets are a risk, though, and there's a certain amount of potential value or loss of value attached to them, too.

 

It's like the posters who champion the Pomeranz trade, because Espinoza has not amounted to squat, so far. The kid had enormous value, back then. It might have been used to trade for someone else. It might have been used within our own system had he not gotten hurt.

 

We traded Buttrey for a proven quality.

 

We traded Beeks for Eovaldi.

[notin]

No, it's unproven quality, but never the less, it has tangible trade value.

 

Even "proven" vets are a risk, though, and there's a certain amount of potential value or loss of value attached to them, too.

 

It's like the posters who champion the Pomeranz trade, because Espinoza has not amounted to squat, so far. The kid had enormous value, back then. It might have been used to trade for someone else. It might have been used within our own system had he not gotten hurt.

 

We traded Buttrey for a proven quality.

 

We traded Beeks for Eovaldi.

 

I’m not saying potential has no value, just saying it’s not quality yet.

 

The Sox traded away half of a pitching staff the last few years for proven vets. It did get them one title and some division banners, but left them in a bad and expensive position going forward, which is where we are today...

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox traded away half of a pitching staff the last few years for proven vets. It did get them one title and some division banners, but left them in a bad and expensive position going forward, which is where we are today...

 

But I think you've also argued elsewhere that we could trade Betts and still be competitive (90 wins or more) next year.

[notin]

But I think you've also argued elsewhere that we could trade Betts and still be competitive (90 wins or more) next year.

 

We could. It all depends on what the Sox get, doesn't it? And what other moves if any are made.

 

It's also not contrary to that previous statement...

[Bellhorn04]

We could. It all depends on what the Sox get, doesn't it? And what other moves if any are made.

 

It's also not contrary to that previous statement...

 

It all depends on what we mean by a bad position.

 

I think most of us feel that Bloom can get us back into a good position within a year or two if he's as shrewd as we hope.

[notin]

It all depends on what we mean by a bad position.

 

I think most of us feel that Bloom can get us back into a good position within a year or two if he's as shrewd as we hope.

 

 

I think this team is in a bad position going forward, but as this is MLB with insane levels of parity not seen I other sports, that can change quickly.

 

But really, for 2020, this team won 84 games last year with one good starter and a ramshackle bullpen. A lot of teams with no significant injuries won less.

 

I think they have a base, assuming a few key people stay healthy. And can be competitive in this year with the right moves. I’d prefer not dealing Betts, but I don’t think it’s a necessarily a white flag, either...

[kenmeister]

I think this team is in a bad position going forward, but as this is MLB with insane levels of parity not seen I other sports, that can change quickly.

 

But really, for 2020, this team won 84 games last year with one good starter and a ramshackle bullpen. A lot of teams with no significant injuries won less.

 

I think they have a base, assuming a few key people stay healthy. And can be competitive in this year with the right moves. I’d prefer not dealing Betts, but I don’t think it’s a necessarily a white flag, either...

 

I love our offense.