A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

If Dalbec is the Sox' best trade bait candidate, it is because he's a high-ranked prospect (albeit on Boston's list), a redundant piece with the younger Devers already established at third, and that he has yet to play in the bigs. That's last point jibes with not rushing him, but also not exposing him -- and not only to his arb clock. It's the maybe what-if that makes him more valuable sight-unseen: will he be a Rizzo or Lars Anderson? a Bagwell or Middlebrooks? a Vazquez or Swihart?

 

On the flipside, if he makes the 26-man and is crushing it on May 1st, does that take him off the table?

 

Dalbec has a higher trade value than Chavis on the trade simulator site.

 

I agree with that assessment.

 

I also think we lose some of his value by forcing him to play 1B. We lose his plus D at 3B, and his bat will be harder to meet 1B expectations than 3B expectations.

[Bellhorn04]

They reset, so their tax would e just 20% for 2020.

 

No, the Yanks went over in 2019, so they're in Year Two rates.

[moonslav59]

No, the Yanks went over in 2019, so they're in Year Two rates.

 

Yes, so 30% not 20%.

[Nick]

Dalbec has a higher trade value than Chavis on the trade simulator site.

 

I agree with that assessment.

 

I also think we lose some of his value by forcing him to play 1B. We lose his plus D at 3B, and his bat will be harder to meet 1B expectations than 3B expectations.

 

 

Unless we have cheaper, more productive alternative I don't see the need to trade Dalbec. We don't really know what we have in Dalbec, no?

If JD opts out after 2020, Dalbec can always DH.

 

We're in no position to trade our prospects. I thought we're rebuilding the farm.

[mvp 78]

Unless we have cheaper, more productive alternative I don't see the need to trade Dalbec. We don't really know what we have in Dalbec, no?

If JD opts out after 2020, Dalbec can always DH.

 

We're in no position to trade our prospects. I thought we're rebuilding the farm.

 

They aren't dumping Dalbec just to move Betts. Don't worry about it. They'll only move Dalbec for a young pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Unless we have cheaper, more productive alternative I don't see the need to trade Dalbec. We don't really know what we have in Dalbec, no?

If JD opts out after 2020, Dalbec can always DH.

 

We're in no position to trade our prospects. I thought we're rebuilding the farm.

 

Trading Dalbec with a vet for a young cost-controlled player who plays a position we actually need someone to play is as good as building the farm.

 

IMO, Dalbec has more value to another team than ours. We have a 3Bman.

 

We could trade Dalbec for another prospect that pitches, plays 2B or CF (assuming we trade JBJ).

[notin]

Unless we have cheaper, more productive alternative I don't see the need to trade Dalbec. We don't really know what we have in Dalbec, no?

If JD opts out after 2020, Dalbec can always DH.

 

We're in no position to trade our prospects. I thought we're rebuilding the farm.

 

 

It is possible to trade a prospect or two and still "rebuild the farm." Or at least get a minimum wage player on the MLB roster.

 

Dalbec isn't "the farm." He is one very small piece of it...

[Nick]

It is possible to trade a prospect or two and still "rebuild the farm." Or at least get a minimum wage player on the MLB roster.

 

Dalbec isn't "the farm." He is one very small piece of it...

 

I just don't want him traded for a middle of pack reliever....he may turn out to be a 10 year player for us....unlikely but may..

[notin]

I just don't want him traded for a middle of pack reliever....he may turn out to be a 10 year player for us....unlikely but may..

 

He also might turn into Will Middlebroks 2.0, meaning he does nothing, marries a NESN sportscaster, and then is out of MLB in 3 years...

[moonslav59]

I just don't want him traded for a middle of pack reliever....he may turn out to be a 10 year player for us....unlikely but may..

 

I like Dalbec a lot. I like him more than Chavis.

 

However, I think his greatest value is at 3B, and I think moving Devers to 1B might create issues we shouldn't mess with.

 

Devers at 1B and Dalbec at 3B makes the most sense to me, on paper, but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

 

I'm not for trading Dalbec because I don't like him or I want to weaken the farm. I'm thinking that trading him (maybe as part of a package) for a higher need area prospect or young player might be the best plan.

[notin]

I like Dalbec a lot. I like him more than Chavis.

 

However, I think his greatest value is at 3B, and I think moving Devers to 1B might create issues we shouldn't mess with.

 

Devers at 1B and Dalbec at 3B makes the most sense to me, on paper, but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

 

I'm not for trading Dalbec because I don't like him or I want to weaken the farm. I'm thinking that trading him (maybe as part of a package) for a higher need area prospect or young player might be the best plan.

 

Very strong agree.

 

If anything, keeping Dalbec "just because" he is a prospect seems like the short-sighted move. If there is no plan to use him where he fits best, then he is expendable for someone who fits better.

[notin]

I just don't want him traded for a middle of pack reliever....he may turn out to be a 10 year player for us....unlikely but may..

 

If you think all Dalbec is worth in a trade is a middle of he pack reliever, why exactly are you arguing so strongly to keep him?

[moonslav59]

If you think all Dalbec is worth in a trade is a middle of he pack reliever, why exactly are you arguing so strongly to keep him?

 

Maybe he meant ML RP'er. In theory he may be worth a top prospect RP'er.

[notin]

Maybe he meant ML RP'er. In theory he may be worth a top prospect RP'er.

 

"middle of the pack" were his exact words.

 

If he is scared that Sox will trade Dalbec for such a modest return, then that's on Bloom. I don't mind seeing Dalbec traded in the right deal, but certainly I don't want to see a stupid deal. But I will at least have some faith that Bloom will make a good deal until he proves me wrong...

[moonslav59]

"middle of the pack" were his exact words.

 

If he is scared that Sox will trade Dalbec for such a modest return, then that's on Bloom. I don't mind seeing Dalbec traded in the right deal, but certainly I don't want to see a stupid deal. But I will at least have some faith that Bloom will make a good deal until he proves me wrong...

 

I agree, and I probably shouldn't try to speak for Nick.

 

I don't think any of us want to trade Dalbec for a middle pack RP'er.

 

I might trade Chavis for a slightly upper-middle pack RP'er who is dependable or who can give 70+ IP.

[mvp 78]

People still trying to kick Devers off of 3b for no good reason. Have y'all even watched Dalbec play 3b? He's adequate. His skillset isn't enough to move Devers off of 3b while Devers is still developing. Devers can be moved to 3b 9 years from now. There's no rush.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree with those who say Dalbec is a poor fit for our MLB roster and thus, quite possibly a top trade chip. But I think his best value may be in a multi-player that helps ship out an expensive pitcher -- and that kind of value may be the most important aspect for the Sox' offseason going forward. Dalbec's worth to someone else may subsequently help reduce payroll and better allow Boston to sign Betts, the latter of which may be the plan, according to a few reports out today.

 

Prospects tend to get overvalued. Just think back to the playgrounds at recess when you were trading cards (way back, before rookie card mania and ugh, disco)... how many kids would swap an MVP or Cy Young guy for a handful of unprovens? Of course, a dealbreaker would be, "You can have the Mookie card, but in one year you have to give it to another collector..." (I'd still rather have a Betts card for a year instead of a Nimmo forever).

[mvp 78]

I agree with those who say Dalbec is a poor fit for our MLB roster and thus, quite possibly a top trade chip. But I think his best value may be in a multi-player that helps ship out an expensive pitcher -- and that kind of value may be the most important aspect for the Sox' offseason going forward. Dalbec's worth to someone else may subsequently help reduce payroll and better allow Boston to sign Betts, the latter of which may be the plan, according to a few reports out today.

 

Prospects tend to get overvalued. Just think back to the playgrounds at recess when you were trading cards (way back, before rookie card mania and ugh, disco)... how many kids would swap an MVP or Cy Young guy for a handful of unprovens? Of course, a dealbreaker would be, "You can have the Mookie card, but in one year you have to give it to another collector..." (I'd still rather have a Betts card for a year instead of a Nimmo forever).

 

That's not how baseball card trades work at all.

[jad]

The RS have an all-star calibre 3bman, under team control, improving steadily in the field (and much better even when he came up than he was given credit for). Why on earth would you move him to a position he hasn't played and which is (or can be) the dumping ground for slow-footed, aging players with few defensive skills, in order to hand 3b to an unproven rookie? Is this an effort to revive the venerable RS tradition of searching futilely for a 3bman to replace the Boggs or Beltre they let get away?

[jacksonianmarch]

One way to view these guys is as expiring assets. They all eventually expire in terms of productivity but you also need to manage your expiration of years of control.

 

Getting a Nimmo for Betts is better than getting a 4th round pick after he leaves

[mvp 78]

The RS have an all-star calibre 3bman, under team control, improving steadily in the field (and much better even when he came up than he was given credit for). Why on earth would you move him to a position he hasn't played and which is (or can be) the dumping ground for slow-footed, aging players with few defensive skills, in order to hand 3b to an unproven rookie? Is this an effort to revive the venerable RS tradition of searching futilely for a 3bman to replace the Boggs or Beltre they let get away?

 

Because some people have had a grudge against Devers since day one because he looks soft and slow (even though he's faster than Beni).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's not how baseball card trades work at all.

 

That's right, we never swapped a star card unless we got another star back... except if there was one specific card we really needed to complete a set for that year; then we'd overpay.

Edited December 4, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[kenmeister]

People still trying to kick Devers off of 3b for no good reason. Have y'all even watched Dalbec play 3b? He's adequate. His skillset isn't enough to move Devers off of 3b while Devers is still developing. Devers can be moved to 3b 9 years from now. There's no rush.

 

I'm a firm believer that if you can play 3B, you can learn to play 1B. So why not have Dalbec train at first in spring training?

[mvp 78]

Very strong agree.

 

If anything, keeping Dalbec "just because" he is a prospect seems like the short-sighted move. If there is no plan to use him where he fits best, then he is expendable for someone who fits better.

 

Why does he "fit best" at 3b? There's little rationale there.

[mvp 78]

I'm a firm believer that if you can play 3B, you can learn to play 1B. So why not have Dalbec train at first in spring training?

 

I'm fine with it. He can start the year in AAA working at 1b if need be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One way to view these guys is as expiring assets. They all eventually expire in terms of productivity but you also need to manage your expiration of years of control.

 

Getting a Nimmo for Betts is better than getting a 4th round pick after he leaves

 

I won't give my opinion of why I'd rather have one more year of Mookie Betts plus a draft pick, instead of four more years of Brandon Nimmo, who becomes a free agent in 2023...

 

... just the quantitative data: Nimmo's career WAR through four years: 6.3 total; Betts' average WAR through six years: 7.0 per season.

[notin]

I'm a firm believer that if you can play 3B, you can learn to play 1B. So why not have Dalbec train at first in spring training?

 

The league is full of players who can handle 1B, but 3B is different. 3B is one of those positions you can justify holding down based on your defense. Brooks Robinson didn't make the Hall of Fame because of his career .267 BA.

 

Certainly Dalbec is no Robinson defensively, but reportedly his defense at 3B is the best part of his game. (And making contact is not.) Why waste that skill at 1B, where plenty of players move to? Especially if he hit .150 in his first two months. Would he still be a contributing layer at 1b?

[notin]

Why does he "fit best" at 3b? There's little rationale there.

 

Because he can play that position very well, and not everyone can. But the Sox don't need a 3b. However, a lot of other teams do, and most of them cannot afford Anthony Rendon...

[notin]

If the Sox are going to trade Betts, maybe they should move Dalbec to RF. He certainly has the arm for the position...

[kenmeister]

THe elague is full of players who can handle 1B, but 3B is different. 3B is one of those positions you can justify holding down based on your defense. Brooks Robinson didn't make the Hall of Fame because of his career .267 BA.

 

Certainly Dalbec is no Robinson defensively, but reportedly his defense at 3B is the best part of his game. (And making contact is not.) Why waste that skill at 1B, where plenty of players move to? Especially if he hit .150 in his first two months. Would he still be a contributing layer at 1b?

 

2004 Doug Mientkiewicz taught me that exceptional 1B defense can make a real difference. He only hit .215 for us but was a contributor.