A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 21st in MLB for IP from the starter at 708 IP.

 

While Tampa and NY have fewer, Tampa'snumbers are skewed by the opener strategy, and the Yankees were built around the bullpen, unlike the Sox.

 

The Sox bullpen has actually been somewhat of a surprise, and would look a lot better across the board if they weren't so heavily relied upon. This was a team that was clearly built with a solid starting rotation in mind, and they have not had one...

 

We did carry one more RP'er than we have for many years prior. I'm not so sure the "overworked" point is very strong. Sure, we've had plenty of games where they had to come in early, but it's not like our best pen arms have seen a big jump in IP.

 

IP

70 Walden (He was a starter in 2017.)

63 Workman (Not much higher than the norm.)

54 Barnes (63 in 2018)

49 Velazquez (8 GS) 55 last year

48 Brasier (34 last year in just the second half)

48 Brewer

42 Taylor

38 Hembree (On IL for times) 60 last year

 

Last year we had (RP Innings only) 4 guys over 60 IP, Velaz at 55 and Workman & Johnson near 40.

 

This year:

70 Walden

63 Workman

54 Barnes

48 Brasier

48 Brewer

41 Taylor

38 Hembree

27 Velaz

25 DHern

22 Weber

 

After our top 7 RP'ers, we saw about 190 IP by scrubs (#8 to #22).

 

In 2018, we saw about 200 IP from our #8-20). We should blow by that, this year.

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Phillies and Braves disagree with this.

 

And the Mets have one of the least effective bullpens in MLB and are 1 game under their Pythagorean record.

 

In fact, using fWAR as a measure, the Red Sox have the 4th best bullpen in MLB this year...

 

Poooof!

[kenmeister]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

 

Ugh. Don't remind me. So embarrassing!

[dgalehouse]

Pythagoras was an Ancient Greek jabroni who never quite understood the difference between a blowout and a close game .

[moonslav59]

Pythagoras was an Ancient Greek jabroni who never quite understood the difference between a blowout and a close game .

 

Back then the "back-end" meant something totally different!

[dgalehouse]

That's not really the point though. We're a little unlucky in that the AL has teams with better records fighting for the Wild Card than the NL does this year.

 

It's no excuse for our situation by any means.

The A.L. contenders all benefit from playing the plethora of piss poor teams in the league . The imbalance in the A.L. is considerable. I would say that the Twins are not nearly as good a team as their record , either real or Pythagorean, would indicate. Playing in the A.L. Central is their biggest strength .

[oldtimer]

Back then the "back-end" meant something totally different!

 

Beware of Greeks bring gifts.

[Nick]

Only way Porcello comes back will be at a steep discounted price, $7-8M for one year, trying to build up his value for 2021. I'm just not sure anyone would give him long term contract. Name the team!

 

E Rod has two more years of team control. Price and Eovaldi have three more years left on their contracts. Sale will around for awhile. Do we have an internal option? How about stretching out Hernandez? Can he be much worse than our 'fifth' starters this year?

 

I expect Dalbec to be called up soon. Can he be ready for action sometime in 2020?

 

Meanwhile do we go with Marco at 2B and Chavis at 1B?

 

I'm with Moon in just parting ways with JBJ and his $10M. Find a defensive outfielder. Can we stick Sam Travis in LF and move Beni to CF?

 

Our starter have to get healthy or we can kiss 2020 goodbye no matter how much better our bullpen gets.

[moonslav59]

Only way Porcello comes back will be at a steep discounted price, $7-8M for one year, trying to build up his value for 2021. I'm just not sure anyone would give him long term contract. Name the team!

 

E Rod has two more years of team control. Price and Eovaldi have three more years left on their contracts. Sale will around for awhile. Do we have an internal option? How about stretching out Hernandez? Can he be much worse than our 'fifth' starters this year?

 

I expect Dalbec to be called up soon. Can he be ready for action sometime in 2020?

 

Meanwhile do we go with Marco at 2B and Chavis at 1B?

 

I'm with Moon in just parting ways with JBJ and his $10M. Find a defensive outfielder. Can we stick Sam Travis in LF and move Beni to CF?

 

Our starter have to get healthy or we can kiss 2020 goodbye no matter how much better our bullpen gets.

 

DHern did start 23 games with 101 IP with Portland in 2018, so I don't think making him a starter would take much work.

 

I'm not sure what role is best for him.

 

I don't like relying on Travis for anything, but maybe as a back-up option, however, if we are going to reset, then I'm fine with just about anyone.

 

I see Marco and Chavis sharing 2B duty with Chavis playing some 1B. I expect Dalbec, Travis and Ockimey to fight for the 1B platoon. I think Ockimey has more upside than Travis, and he's better than the others vs RHPs on the farm.)

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe Henry okays spending larger for 2 more years, mega taxes and all.

 

We reset after 2021 when...

 

Pedey's contract ends ($13.75).

ERod, Barnes and Hembree become FAs.

Price & Eovaldi are on their last year of team control.

JD may have already opted out or has just 2022 to go.

 

I think it's best to reset this winter, but I can see why extending the window could work.

[kenmeister]

As E-Rod (and a few others) close in on 20 wins, I thought I'd see what MLB team has had the biggest drought in having a 20 game winner on its staff. It looks like the winner is ...

 

the Padres. Back in 1978, Gaylord Perry won 21 games. And they haven't had a 20 game winner since. Jake Peavy won 19 in 2007; close but no cigar!

[Slasher9]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

 

f***ing troll post from....not? A troll

Riiiiiiiiggghht.

[Kimmi]

You will consistently underperform your pythag if you pen sucks. Also, this year is strange. So many teams on the tank and only a few on the rise. That being said, I do find it ironic that JD Martinez was lamenting the state of competition in the majors and that "on opening day you know who is gonna make the playoffs". How'd that work out for you JD?

 

This is not a true statement.

[moonslav59]

This is not a true statement.

 

We're still waiting on the evidence.

[Kimmi]

We're still waiting on the evidence.

 

I am sure we'll be waiting for a while.

[notin]

I am sure we'll be waiting for a while.

 

Didn't I already dispel this myth without needing to look beyond this season for data?

[Bellhorn04]

I am sure we'll be waiting for a while.

 

I'm picturing a bunch of crickets in little pinstripe jerseys.

[moonslav59]

Just look at the better Yankee pen last year vs this year and the Pythag changes, and the point is refuted.

[moonslav59]

13 Ks tonight in our "pen game."

 

The Sox have the second best K rate in MLB (9.9)

 

Look at these sick numbers:

 

17.2 DHern (1st in MLB)

15.6 Barnes (3rd)

14.2 Shawaryn

13.3 Sale

12.9 Workman

11.6 Taylor

10.8 Hembree

10.7 Price

10.6 Thornburg

9.1 Brasier

9.1 Eovaldi

9.0 Kelley

8.8 ERod

 

 

Edited September 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

SP'ers

1. Cole 2.62

2. Scherzer 2.92

3. Sale 2.94

 

RP'ers

1. Yates 2.21

2. Pressly 2.32

3. Hader 2.42

4. Kahnle 2.47

5. Anderson 2.56

6. Barnes 2.63

 

 

[moonslav59]

Team UZR/150

5. Red Sox 3.6

10. LAD 1.7

 

DRS

1. LAD 127

23. Red Sox -13

 

(Cue: metrics hater rants.)

Edited September 7, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Team Defensive Rankings by Position(Fangraphs):

 

C

2. BOS 26.3

 

UZR/150 Sox Rankings

 

1B

21. -2.1

 

2B

7. +3.7

 

3B

15. +0.5

 

SS

12.+2.1

 

LF

19. -3.1

 

CF

16. -1.0

 

RF

4. +9.1

 

[oldtimer]

team uzr/150

5. Red sox 3.6

10. Lad 1.7

 

drs

1. Lad 127

23. Red sox -13

 

(cue: Metrics hater rants.)

 

meh

[oldtimer]

We had to win today to keep the hopes of the most optimistic fans alive. Cora's approach was and had to be using an opener and using the BP heavily. It can work in the post season, but there is a danger that one of the relievers won't have good stuff. Unfortunately, Cora sometimes gets cute and decided to put JDM in RF to allow for another hitter in Travis. This backfired as Martinez isn't a good defender and was fooled by a liner and then didn't call Holt off and make the catch he should have gotten to. It cost us runs and our offense just didn't show up against Happ. It looked like we weren't going to win the game, even if we had avoided defensive errors.

 

Time to give our possible minor leaguers more playing time, but it doesn't look like Cora will do that.

[moonslav59]

We had to win today to keep the hopes of the most optimistic fans alive. Cora's approach was and had to be using an opener and using the BP heavily. It can work in the post season, but there is a danger that one of the relievers won't have good stuff. Unfortunately, Cora sometimes gets cute and decided to put JDM in RF to allow for another hitter in Travis. This backfired as Martinez isn't a good defender and was fooled by a liner and then didn't call Holt off and make the catch he should have gotten to. It cost us runs and our offense just didn't show up against Happ. It looked like we weren't going to win the game, even if we had avoided defensive errors.

 

Time to give our possible minor leaguers more playing time, but it doesn't look like Cora will do that.

 

This playing it halfway solves nothing.

[moonslav59]

Top AL WAR Players

Sox

3. Bogey 6.4

4T. Betts 5.7

7T. Devers 5.5

25. JD M 3.2

T38. Vaz 2.8

T43. Beni 2.6

3 in top 7, 4 in top 25 and 6 in top 43.

 

Astros

2. Bregman 6.8

6. Springer 5.6 (just 486 PAs)

10. Brantley 4.5

24. Gurriel 3.3

31. Alruve 3.0 (475)

34. Correa 3.0 (310)

39. Alvarez 2.8 (293!)

3 in top 10, 4 in top 25 and 7 in top 39. Without the injuries, maybe 7 in top 25.

 

Yanks

9. LeMahieu 4.9

18. Torres 3.5

19. Judge 3.5 (just 374 PAs)

26. Gardner 3.2 (471)

47. Sanchez (423)

1 in top 10, 3 in top 25 and 5 in the top 50. Many injuries held many down.

 

AL Pitching (Lance Lynn #1 at 5.9!!!)

Sox

T8 Sale 3.6

23. ERod 2.6

27. Price 2.3

40. Workman 1.7

46. Cashner 1.6 (2 teams)

3 in top 27

 

Astros

2. Cole 5.6

4. Verlander 5.2

(Greinke 2 leagues 4.4 would be 6th in AL)

34. Miley 1.9

3 in top 6!

 

Yanks

16. Paxton 2.9

19. Tanaka 2.9

31. Chapman 2.0

42. German 1.7

2 in top 20.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by moonslav59

[jung]

I did not like the way Cora rolled out the relievers early either. Weber particularly bothered me as he had given Cora two innings yesterday. Said it in the GT as soon as Weber came into the game. By the time Cora got back on any sort of reasonable track, it was too late. Damage done....game over.

 

In addition, Cora is getting too many of his core relievers up every day now. He has buckets of arms but not buckets of good arms. The entire reason for having 21 pitchers is so you can save those that can actually pitch for when you need them. The rest you have to use where you can and take your chances.

 

Today (Sunday) will be particularly interesting because anybody in that pen that can actually pitch has been up or in virtually every day for the last 5 days. Nice corner you and your ex-catcher pitching coach are boxing yourselves into there Alex. Then again since MLB saw fit to partner with ESPN, an idiot Network if there ever was one, I can probably count the people that will see the Sunday game on one hand since they are head up against Pats/Steelers. Smooth move MLB/ESPN.... real smooth. It will be me and four other nut cases watching this one.

[notin]

This playing it halfway solves nothing.

 

So Cora won't see what the young guys have and he won't let any veteran pitcher throw more than 4 innings? WTF is his strategy here? Burn out the bullpen for next season already?

[Kimmi]

We had to win today to keep the hopes of the most optimistic fans alive. Cora's approach was and had to be using an opener and using the BP heavily. It can work in the post season, but there is a danger that one of the relievers won't have good stuff. Unfortunately, Cora sometimes gets cute and decided to put JDM in RF to allow for another hitter in Travis. This backfired as Martinez isn't a good defender and was fooled by a liner and then didn't call Holt off and make the catch he should have gotten to. It cost us runs and our offense just didn't show up against Happ. It looked like we weren't going to win the game, even if we had avoided defensive errors.

 

Time to give our possible minor leaguers more playing time, but it doesn't look like Cora will do that.

 

It's not looking very good for the good guys, but the fat lady has not sung yet. Cora has not given up yet, which I'm glad to see. I think playing the minor leaguers at this point sends the wrong message.

 

I am not delusional. I know our chances are not good at all. That said, never give up and never give up hope.

[oldtimer]

It's not looking very good for the good guys, but the fat lady has not sung yet. Cora has not given up yet, which I'm glad to see. I think playing the minor leaguers at this point sends the wrong message.

 

I am not delusional. I know our chances are not good at all. That said, never give up and never give up hope.

 

I know your a die hard fan and that is commendable. I am sure there are reasons for playing some of our guys like Moreland and Travis, but I take the other view that we are already prepping for 2020. Getting 20 games of experience in the bigs might help a few kids. I am thinking of Dalbec here and if we brought up potential starters now they would only get into a few games. Chathaqm interests me as he has a real chance of supplanting others at 2nd or as a key utility guy. Duran may just be too raw for the bigs and another few months of minor league play may help him more than getting into MLB games now.